Spatiotemporal clustering analysis and risk assessments of human cutaneous anthrax in China, 2005–2012

Objective To investigate the epidemic characteristics of human cutaneous anthrax (CA) in China, detect the spatiotemporal clusters at the county level for preemptive public health interventions, and evaluate the differences in the epidemiological characteristics within and outside clusters. Methods CA cases reported during 2005–2012 from the national surveillance system were evaluated at the county level using space-time scan statistic. Comparative analysis of the epidemic characteristics within and outside identified clusters was performed using using the χ2 test or Kruskal-Wallis test. Results The group of 30–39 years had the highest incidence of CA, and the fatality rate increased with age, with persons ≥70 years showing a fatality rate of 4.04%. Seasonality analysis showed that most of CA cases occurred between May/June and September/October of each year. The primary spatiotemporal cluster contained 19 counties from June 2006 to May 2010, and it was mainly located straddling the borders of Sichuan, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces. In these high-risk areas, CA cases were predominantly found among younger, local, males, shepherds, who were living on agriculture and stockbreeding and characterized with high morbidity, low mortality and a shorter period from illness onset to diagnosis. Conclusion CA was geographically and persistently clustered in the Southwestern China during 2005–2012, with notable differences in the epidemic characteristics within and outside spatiotemporal clusters; this demonstrates the necessity for CA interventions such as enhanced surveillance, health education, mandatory and standard decontamination or disinfection procedures to be geographically targeted to the areas identified in this study.

Spatiotemporal aspects of Hendra Virus infection in Pteropid Bats (Flying-Foxes) in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.

Can technology provide a glimmer of hope for economic growth in the midst of chaos? A case of Zimbabwe

In this paper we examine the effect of technology on economic growth in Zimbabwe over the period 1975–2014 whilst accounting for structural breaks. We use the extended Cobb–Douglas type Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure to examine cointegration and short run and long run effects. Using unit root tests, we note that structural changes in Zimbabwe are generally marked by the period 1982 onwards. We find that mobile technology has a positive short-run (0.09 %) and long-run (0.08 %) impact on the output per capita. The structural changes post-1982 periods show positive impact in the short-run (0.06) and the long-run (0.09), whereas the coefficient of trend in the short-run (−0.03) and the long-run (−0.04) is negative. The Granger non-causality test shows a unidirectional causality from capital stock (investment) per capita to output per capita and a bi-directional causality between mobile cellular technology and output per capita. The plausible reasons for estimated magnitude effects and the direction of causality are explained for policy deliberation.

Spatiotemporal Organization of AT- and GC-rich DNA and Their Association With Transition Proteins TP1 and TP2 in Rat Condensing Spermatids

Transition protein 1 (TP1) and TP2 replace histones during midspermiogenesis (stages 12-15) and are finally replaced by protamines. TPs play a predominant role in DNA condensation and chromatin remodeling during mammalian spermiogenesis. TP2 is a zinc metalloprotein with two novel zinc finger modules that condenses DNA in vitro in a GC-preference manner. TP2 also localizes to the nucleolus in transfected HeLa and Cos-7 cells, suggesting a GC-rich preference, even in vivo. We have now studied the localization pattern of TP2 in the rat spermatid nucleus. Colocalization studies using GC-selective DNA-binding dyes chromomycin A3 and 7-amino actinomycin D and an AT-selective dye, 4',6-diamidino-2-phenylindole, indicate that TP2 is preferentially localized to GC-rich sequences. Interestingly, as spermatids mature, TP2 and GC-rich DNA moves toward the nuclear periphery, and in the late stages of spermatid maturation, TP2 is predominantly localized at the nuclear periphery. Another interesting observation is the mutually exclusive localization of GC- and AT-rich DNA in the elongating and elongated spermatids. A combined immunofluorescence experiment with anti-TP2 and anti-TP1 antibodies revealed several foci of overlapping localization, indicating that TP1 and TP2 may have concerted functional roles during chromatin remodeling in mammalian spermiogenesis.

Topology-based denoising of chaos

In this article, we propose a denoising algorithm to denoise a time series y(i) = x(i) + e(i), where {x(i)} is a time series obtained from a time- T map of a uniformly hyperbolic or Anosov flow, and {e(i)} a uniformly bounded sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. Making use of observations up to time n, we create an estimate of x(i) for i<n. We show under typical limiting behaviours of the orbit and the recurrence properties of x(i), the estimation error converges to zero as n tends to infinity with probability 1.

Search for chaos in neutron star systems: Is Cyg X-3 a black hole?

The accretion disk around a compact object is a nonlinear general relativistic system involving magnetohydrodynamics. Naturally, the question arises whether such a system is chaotic (deterministic) or stochastic (random) which might be related to the associated transport properties whose origin is still not confirmed. Earlier, the black hole system GRS 1915+105 was shown to be low-dimensional chaos in certain temporal classes. However, so far such nonlinear phenomena have not been studied fairly well for neutron stars which are unique for their magnetosphere and kHz quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO). On the other hand, it was argued that the QPO is a result of nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic effects in accretion disks. If a neutron star exhibits chaotic signature, then what is the chaotic/correlation dimension? We analyze RXTE/PCA data of neutron stars Sco X-1 and Cyg X-2, along with the black hole Cyg X-1 and the unknown source Cyg X-3, and show that while Sco X-1 and Cyg X-2 are low dimensional chaotic systems, Cyg X-1 and Cyg X-3 are stochastic sources. Based on our analysis, we argue that Cyg X-3 may be a black hole.

Diminished chaos of heart rate time series in patients with major depression

Background: Depression and anxiety have been linked to serious cardiovascular events in patients with preexisting cardiac illness. A decrease in cardiac vagal function as suggested by a decrease in heart rate (HR) variability has been linked to sudden death. Methods: We compared LLE and nonlinearity scores of the unfiltered (UF) and filtered time series (very low, low, and high frequency; VLF, LF and HF) of HR between patients with depression (n = 14) and healthy control subjects (n = 18). Results: We found significantly lower LLE of the unfiltered series in either posture, and HF series in patients with major depression in supine posture (p < .002). LLE (LF/UF), which may indicate relative sympathetic activity was also significantly higher in supine and standing postures in patients (p < .05); LF/HF (LLE) was also higher in patients (p < .05) in either posture. Conclusions: These findings suggest that major depression is associated with decreased cardiac vagal function and a relative increase in sympathetic function, which may be related to the higher risk of cardiovascular mortality, in this group and illustrates the usefulness of nonlinear measures of chaos such as LLE in addition to the commonly used spectral measures.

Major depression with ischemic heart disease: Effects of paroxetine and nortriptyline on measures of nonlinearity and chaos of heart rate

Depression is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with preexisting cardiac illness. A decrease in cardiac vagal function as suggested by a decrease in heart rate variability (HRV) or heart period variability has been linked to sudden death in patients with cardiac disease as well as in normal controls. Recent studies have shown decreased vagal function in cardiac patients with depression as well as in depressed patients without cardiac illness. In this study, we compared 20 h awake and sleep heart period nonlinear measures using quantification of nonlinearity and chaos in two groups of patients with major depression and ischemic heart disease (mean age 59-60 years) before and after 6 weeks of treatment with paroxetine or nortriptyline. Patients received paroxetine, 20-30 mg/day or nortriptyline targeted to 190-570 nmol/l for 6 weeks. For HRV analysis, 24 patients were included in the paroxetine treatment study and 20 patients in the nortriptyline study who had at least 20,000 s of awake data. The ages of these groups were 60.4 +/- 10.5 years for paroxetine and 60.8 +/- 13.4 years for nortriptyline. There was a significant decrease in the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) after treatment with nortriptyline but not paroxetine. There were also significant decreases in nonlinearity scores on S-netPR and S-netGS after nortriptyline, which may be due to a decrease in cardiac vagal modulation of HRV. S-netGS and awake LLE were the most significant variables that contributed to the discrimination of postparoxetine and postnortriptyline groups even with the inclusion of time and frequency domain measures. These findings suggest that nortriptyline decreases the measures of chaos probably through its stronger vagolytic effects on cardiac autonomic function compared with paroxetine, which is in agreement with previous clinical and preclinical reports. Nortriptyline was also associated with a significant decrease in nonlinearity scores, which may be due to anticholinergic and/or sympatholytic effects. As depression is associated with a strong risk factor for cardiovascular mortality, one should be careful about using any drug that adversely affects cardiac vagal function. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Nonlinear measures of respiration: Respiratory irregularity and increased chaos of respiration in patients with panic disorder

Background. Respiratory irregularity has been previously reported in patients with panic disorder using time domain measures. However, the respiratory signal is not entirely linear and a few previous studies used approximate entropy (APEN), a measure of regularity of time series. We have been studying APEN and other nonlinear measures including a measure of chaos, the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of heart rate time series, in some detail. In this study, we used these measures of respiration to compare normal controls (n = 18) and patients with panic disorder (n = 22) in addition to the traditional time domain measures of respiratory rate and tidal volume. Methods: Respiratory signal was obtained by the Respitrace system using a thoracic and an abdominal belt, which was digitized at 500 Hz. Later, the time series were constructed at 4 Hz, as the highest frequency in this signal is limited to 0.5 Hz. We used 256 s of data (1,024 points) during supine and standing postures under normal breathing and controlled breathing at 12 breaths/min. Results: APEN was significantly higher in patients in standing posture during normal as well as controlled breathing (p = 0.002 and 0.02, respectively). LLE was also significantly higher in standing posture during normal breathing (p = 0.009). Similarly, the time domain measures of standard deviations and the coefficient of variation (COV) of tidal volume (TV) were significantly higher in the patient group (p = 0.02 and 0.004, respectively). The frequency of sighs was also higher in the patient group in standing posture (p = 0.02). In standing posture, LLE (p < 0.05) as well as APEN (p < 0.01) contributed significantly toward the separation of the two groups over and beyond the linear measure, i.e. the COV of TV. Conclusion: These findings support the previously described respiratory irregularity in patients with panic disorder and also illustrate the utility of nonlinear measures such as APEN and LLE as additional measures toward a better understanding of the abnormalities of respiratory physiology in similar patient populations as the correlation between LLE, APEN and some of the time domain measures only explained up to 50-60% of the variation. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Effect of nortriptyline and paroxetine on measures of chaos of heart rate time series in patients with panic disorder

Tricyclic antidepressants have notable cardiac side effects, and this issue has become important due to the recent reports of increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with depression and anxiety. Several previous studies indicate that serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) do not appear to have such adverse effects. Apart from the effects of these drugs on routine 12-lead ECG, the effects on beat-to-beat heart rate (HR) and QT interval time series provide more information on the side effects related to cardiac autonomic function. In this study, we evaluated the effects of two antidepressants, nortriptyline (n = 13), a tricyclic, and paroxetine (n = 16), an SRI inhibitor, on HR variability in patients with panic disorder, using a measure of chaos, the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) using pre- and posttreatment HR time series. Our results show that nortriptyline is associated with a decrease in LLE of high frequency (HF: 0.15-0.5 Hz) filtered series, which is most likely due to its anticholinergic effect, while paroxetine had no such effect. Paroxetine significantly decreased sympathovagal ratios as measured by a decrease in LLE of LF/HF. These results suggest that paroxetine appears to be safer in regards to cardiovascular effects compared to nortriptyline in this group of patients. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty analysis of vibrational frequencies of an incompressible liquid in a rectangular tank with and without a baffle using polynomial chaos expansion

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is employed for calculating the vibrational frequencies of an inviscid incompressible fluid partially filled in a rectangular tank with and without a baffle. Vibration frequencies of the coupled system are described through their projections on the PCE which uses orthogonal basis functions. PCE coefficients are evaluated using LHS. Convergence on the coefficient of variation is used to find the orthogonal polynomial basis function order which is employed in PCE. It is observed that the dispersion in the eigenvalues is more in the case of a rectangular tank with a baffle. The accuracy of the PCE method is verified with standard MCS results and is found to be more efficient.