The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

Accelerating aging chemotherapy on aged animals: Protective effect from nutraceutical modulation

The aim of this study was to test a novel phytocompound in an experimental model of antitumor-induced immunosuppression. Five groups of mice were considered: young (Y) and aged (A) that were given intraperitoneally 10 doses of cyclophosphamide (CPX, 25mg/kg/bw) or CPX plus (150 mg/kg/bw) of the nutraceutical DTS (Denshichi-Tochiu-Sen), and control. After sacrifice, macrophage chemotaxis and serum levels of IFN-gamma, IL-2, and GM-CSF were determined. Liver and urinary bladder were examined histologically, as were the liver and kidney for redox enzymes. CPX significantly decreased macrophage chemotaxis and all cytokines (p < 0.05, A >> Y). DTS restored macrophage function and cytokine concentration (p < 0.001) and partly improved the necro-inflammatory score and substance P receptor expression in the bladder and the redox status in liver and kidney (p < 0.05). Such data suggest that DTS effectively prevents CPX-induced immune suppression and oxidative-inflammatory damage, which are particularly enhanced in aged organisms.

Reciprocal Modulation of Cognitive and Emotional Aspects in Pianistic Performances

Background: High level piano performance requires complex integration of perceptual, motor, cognitive and emotive skills. Observations in psychology and neuroscience studies have suggested reciprocal inhibitory modulation of the cognition by emotion and emotion by cognition. However, it is still unclear how cognitive states may influence the pianistic performance. The aim of the present study is to verify the influence of cognitive and affective attention in the piano performances. Methods and Findings: Nine pianists were instructed to play the same piece of music, firstly focusing only on cognitive aspects of musical structure (cognitive performances), and secondly, paying attention solely on affective aspects (affective performances). Audio files from pianistic performances were examined using a computational model that retrieves nine specific musical features (descriptors) - loudness, articulation, brightness, harmonic complexity, event detection, key clarity, mode detection, pulse clarity and repetition. In addition, the number of volunteers' errors in the recording sessions was counted. Comments from pianists about their thoughts during performances were also evaluated. The analyses of audio files throughout musical descriptors indicated that the affective performances have more: agogics, legatos, pianos phrasing, and less perception of event density when compared to the cognitive ones. Error analysis demonstrated that volunteers misplayed more left hand notes in the cognitive performances than in the affective ones. Volunteers also played more wrong notes in affective than in cognitive performances. These results correspond to the volunteers' comments that in the affective performances, the cognitive aspects of piano execution are inhibited, whereas in the cognitive performances, the expressiveness is inhibited. Conclusions: Therefore, the present results indicate that attention to the emotional aspects of performance enhances expressiveness, but constrains cognitive and motor skills in the piano execution. In contrast, attention to the cognitive aspects may constrain the expressivity and automatism of piano performances.

T cells, adhesion molecules and modulation of apoptosis in visceral leishmaniasis glomerulonephritis

Background: Immune complex deposition is the accepted mechanism of pathogenesis of VL glomerulopathy however other immune elements may participate. Further in the present study, no difference was seen between immunoglobulin and C3b deposit intensity in glomeruli between infected and non-infected dogs thus T cells, adhesion molecules and parameters of proliferation and apoptosis were analysed in dogs with naturally acquired VL from an endemic area. The dog is the most important domestic reservoir of the protozoa Leishmania (L.) chagasi that causes visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The similarity of VL manifestation in humans and dogs renders the study of canine VL nephropathy of interest with regard to human pathology. Methods: From 55 dogs with VL and 8 control non-infected dogs from an endemic area, kidney samples were analyzed by immunohistochemistry for immunoglobulin and C3b deposits, staining for CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, ICAM-1, P-selectin and quantified using morphometry. Besides proliferation marker Ki-67, apoptosis markers M30 and TUNEL staining, and related cytokines TNF-alpha, IL-1 alpha were searched and quantified. Results: We observed similar IgG, IgM and IgA and C3b deposit intensity in dogs with VL and non-infected control dogs. However we detected the Leishmania antigen in cells in glomeruli in 54, CD4+ T cells in the glomeruli of 44, and CD8+ T cells in 17 of a total of 55 dogs with VL. Leishmania antigen was absent and T cells were absent/scarse in eight non-infected control dogs. CD 4+ T cells predominate in proliferative patterns of glomerulonephritis, however the presence of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were not different in intensity in different patterns of glomerulonephritis. The expression of ICAM-1 and P-selectin was significantly greater in the glomeruli of infected dogs than in control dogs. In all patterns of glomerulonephritis the expression of ICAM-1 ranged from minimum to moderately severe and P-selectin from absent to severe. In the control animals the expression of these molecules ranged from absent to medium intensity. It was not observed any correlation between severity of the disease and these markers. There was a correlation between the number of Leishmania antigen positive cells and CD4+ T cells, and between the number of CD4+ T cells and CD8+ T cells. In dogs presenting different histopathological patterns of glomerulonephritis, parameters of proliferation and apoptosis were studied. Ki-67, a proliferative marker, was not detected locally, but fewer apoptotic cells and lower TNF-alpha expression were seen in infected animals than in non-infected controls. Conclusion: Immunopathogenic mechanisms of VL glomerulonephritis are complex and data in the present study suggest no clear participation of immunoglobulin and C3b deposits in these dogs but the possible migration of CD4+ T cells into the glomeruli, participation of adhesion molecules, and diminished apoptosis of cells contributing to determine the proliferative pattern of glomerulonephritis in VL.

RNA interference-mediated knockdown of CD49e (alpha 5 integrin chain) in human thymic epithelial cells modulates the expression of multiple genes and decreases thymocyte adhesion

Background: The thymus is a central lymphoid organ, in which bone marrow-derived T cell precursors undergo a complex process of maturation. Developing thymocytes interact with thymic microenvironment in a defined spatial order. A component of thymic microenvironment, the thymic epithelial cells, is crucial for the maturation of T-lymphocytes through cell-cell contact, cell matrix interactions and secretory of cytokines/chemokines. There is evidence that extracellular matrix molecules play a fundamental role in guiding differentiating thymocytes in both cortical and medullary regions of the thymic lobules. The interaction between the integrin alpha 5 beta 1 (CD49e/CD29; VLA-5) and fibronectin is relevant for thymocyte adhesion and migration within the thymic tissue. Our previous results have shown that adhesion of thymocytes to cultured TEC line is enhanced in the presence of fibronectin, and can be blocked with anti-VLA-5 antibody. Results: Herein, we studied the role of CD49e expressed by the human thymic epithelium. For this purpose we knocked down the CD49e by means of RNA interference. This procedure resulted in the modulation of more than 100 genes, some of them coding for other proteins also involved in adhesion of thymocytes; others related to signaling pathways triggered after integrin activation, or even involved in the control of F-actin stress fiber formation. Functionally, we demonstrated that disruption of VLA-5 in human TEC by CD49e-siRNA-induced gene knockdown decreased the ability of TEC to promote thymocyte adhesion. Such a decrease comprised all CD4/CD8-defined thymocyte subsets. Conclusion: Conceptually, our findings unravel the complexity of gene regulation, as regards key genes involved in the heterocellular cell adhesion between developing thymocytes and the major component of the thymic microenvironment, an interaction that is a mandatory event for proper intrathymic T cell differentiation.

Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes according the ENSO variability

The differences on the phase and wavelength of the quasi-stationary waves over the South America generated by El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) events seem to affect the daily evolution of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes (SALLJ). For the austral summer period of 1977 2004 the SALLJ episodes detected according to Bonner criterion 1 show normal to above-normal frequency in EN years, and in LN years the episodes show normal to below-normal frequency. During EN and LN years the SALLJ episodes were associated with positive rainfall anomalies over the La Plata Basin, but more intense during LN years. During EN years the increase in the SALLJ cases were associated to intensification of the Subtropical Jet (SJ) around 30 degrees S and positive Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies over the western equatorial Atlantic and tropical South America, particularly over central Brazil. This favored the intensification of the northeasterly trade winds over the northern continent and it channeled by the Andes mountain to the La Plata Basin region where negative SLP are found. The SALLJ cases identified during the LN events were weaker and less frequent when compared to those for EN years. In this case the SJ was weaker than in EN years and the negative SLP anomalies over the tropical continent contributed to the inversion of the northeasterly trade winds. Also a southerly flow anomaly was generated by the geostrophic balance due to the anomalous blocking over southeast Pacific and the intense cyclonic transient over the southern tip of South America. As result the warm tropical air brought by the SALLJ encounters the cold extratropical air from the southerly winds over the La Plata basin. This configuration can increase the conditional instability over the La Plata basin and may explain the more intense positive rainfall anomalies in SALLJ cases during LN years than in EN years.

High spatial resolution spectroscopy of W51IRS 2E and IRS 2W: Two very massive young stars in early formation stages

We present K-band spectra of the near infrared counterparts to IRS 2E and IRS 2W which is associated with the ultracompact H II region W51d, both of them embedded sources in the Galactic compact H II region W51 IRS 2. The high spatial resolution observations were obtained with the laser guide star facility and Near-infrared Integral Field Spectrograph (NIFS) mounted at the Gemini-North observatory. The spectrum of the ionizing source of W51d shows the photospheric features N III ( 21155 angstrom) in emission and He II ( 21897 angstrom) in absorption which lead us to classify it as a young O3 type star. We detected CO overtone in emission at 23000 angstrom in the spectrum of IRS 2E, suggesting that it is a massive young object still surrounded by an accretion disk, probably transitioning from the hot core phase to an ultracompact H II region.

Spatial patterns in the brood combs of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Meliponinae): male clusters

Genetic models of sex and caste determination in eusocial stingless bees suggest specific patterns of male, worker and gyne cell distribution in the brood comb. Conflict between queen and laying workers over male parentage and center-periphery gradients of conditions, such as food and temperature, could also contribute to non-random spatial configuration. We converted the positions of the hexagonal cells in a brood comb to Cartesian coordinates, labeled by sex or caste of the individuals inside. To detect and locate clustered patterns, the mapped brood combs were evaluated by indexes of dispersion (MMC, mean distance of cells of a given category from their centroid) and eccentricity (DMB, distance between this centroid and the overall brood comb centroid) that we developed. After randomizing the labels and recalculating the indexes, we calculated probabilities that the original values had been generated by chance. We created sets of binary brood combs in which males were aggregated, regularly or randomly distributed among females. These stylized maps were used to describe the power of MMC and DMB, and they were applied to evaluate the male distribution in the sampled Nannotrigona testaceicornis brood combs. MMC was very sensitive to slight deviations from a perfectly rounded clump; DMB detected any asymmetry in the location of these compact to fuzzy clusters. Six of the 82 brood combs of N. testaceicornis that we analyzed had more than nine males, distributed according to variations in spatial patterns, as indicated by the two indexes.

Modulation of small leucine-rich proteoglycans (SLRPs) expression in the mouse uterus by estradiol and progesterone

Background: We have previously demonstrated that four members of the family of small leucine-rich-proteoglycans (SLRPs) of the extracellular matrix (ECM), named decorin, biglycan, lumican and fibromodulin, are deeply remodeled in mouse uterine tissues along the estrous cycle and early pregnancy. It is known that the combined action of estrogen (E2) and progesterone (P4) orchestrates the estrous cycle and prepares the endometrium for pregnancy, modulating synthesis, deposition and degradation of various molecules. Indeed, we showed that versican, another proteoglycan of the ECM, is under hormonal control in the uterine tissues. Methods: E2 and/or medroxiprogesterone acetate (MPA) were used to demonstrate, by real time PCR and immunoperoxidase staining, respectively, their effects on mRNA expression and protein deposition of these SLRPs, in the uterine tissues. Results: Decorin and lumican were constitutively expressed and deposited in the ECM in the absence of the ovarian hormones, whereas deposition of biglycan and fibromodulin were abolished from the uterine ECM in the non-treated group. Interestingly, ovariectomy promoted an increase in decorin, lumican and fibromodulin mRNA levels, while biglycan mRNA conspicuously decreased. Hormone replacement with E2 and/or MPA differentially modulates their expression and deposition. Conclusions: The patterns of expression of these SLRPs in the uterine tissues were found to be hormone-dependent and uterine compartment-related. These results reinforce the existence of subpopulations of endometrial fibroblasts, localized into distinct functional uterine compartments, resembling the organization into basal and functional layers of the human endometrium.

Two-dimensional supersonic nonlinear Schrodinger flow past an extended obstacle

Supersonic flow of a superfluid past a slender impenetrable macroscopic obstacle is studied in the framework of the two-dimensional (2D) defocusing nonlinear Schroumldinger (NLS) equation. This problem is of fundamental importance as a dispersive analog of the corresponding classical gas-dynamics problem. Assuming the oncoming flow speed is sufficiently high, we asymptotically reduce the original boundary-value problem for a steady flow past a slender body to the one-dimensional dispersive piston problem described by the nonstationary NLS equation, in which the role of time is played by the stretched x coordinate and the piston motion curve is defined by the spatial body profile. Two steady oblique spatial dispersive shock waves (DSWs) spreading from the pointed ends of the body are generated in both half planes. These are described analytically by constructing appropriate exact solutions of the Whitham modulation equations for the front DSW and by using a generalized Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization rule for the oblique dark soliton fan in the rear DSW. We propose an extension of the traditional modulation description of DSWs to include the linear ""ship-wave"" pattern forming outside the nonlinear modulation region of the front DSW. Our analytic results are supported by direct 2D unsteady numerical simulations and are relevant to recent experiments on Bose-Einstein condensates freely expanding past obstacles.

Gene Expression Noise in Spatial Patterning: hunchback Promoter Structure Affects Noise Amplitude and Distribution in Drosophila Segmentation

Positional information in developing embryos is specified by spatial gradients of transcriptional regulators. One of the classic systems for studying this is the activation of the hunchback (hb) gene in early fruit fly (Drosophila) segmentation by the maternally-derived gradient of the Bicoid (Bcd) protein. Gene regulation is subject to intrinsic noise which can produce variable expression. This variability must be constrained in the highly reproducible and coordinated events of development. We identify means by which noise is controlled during gene expression by characterizing the dependence of hb mRNA and protein output noise on hb promoter structure and transcriptional dynamics. We use a stochastic model of the hb promoter in which the number and strength of Bcd and Hb (self-regulatory) binding sites can be varied. Model parameters are fit to data from WT embryos, the self-regulation mutant hb(14F), and lacZ reporter constructs using different portions of the hb promoter. We have corroborated model noise predictions experimentally. The results indicate that WT (self-regulatory) Hb output noise is predominantly dependent on the transcription and translation dynamics of its own expression, rather than on Bcd fluctuations. The constructs and mutant, which lack self-regulation, indicate that the multiple Bcd binding sites in the hb promoter (and their strengths) also play a role in buffering noise. The model is robust to the variation in Bcd binding site number across a number of fly species. This study identifies particular ways in which promoter structure and regulatory dynamics reduce hb output noise. Insofar as many of these are common features of genes (e. g. multiple regulatory sites, cooperativity, self-feedback), the current results contribute to the general understanding of the reproducibility and determinacy of spatial patterning in early development.

Entanglement in spatially inhomogeneous many-fermion systems

We investigate entanglement of strongly interacting fermions in spatially inhomogeneous environments. To quantify entanglement in the presence of spatial inhomogeneity, we propose a local-density approximation (LDA) to the entanglement entropy, and a nested LDA scheme to evaluate the entanglement entropy on inhomogeneous density profiles. These ideas are applied to models of electrons in superlattice structures with different modulation patterns, electrons in a metallic wire in the presence of impurities, and phase-separated states in harmonically confined many-fermion systems, such as electrons in quantum dots and atoms in optical traps. We find that the entanglement entropy of inhomogeneous systems is strikingly different from that of homogeneous systems.

Structural models for yttrium aluminium borate laser glasses: NMR and EPR studies of the system (Y(2)O(3))(0.2)-(Al(2)O(3))(x)-(B(2)O(3))(0.8-x)

The structure of laser glasses in the system (Y(2)O(3))(0.2){(Al(2)O(3))(x))(B(2)O(3))(0.8-x)} (0.15 <= x <= 0.40) has been investigated by means of (11)B, (27)Al, and (89)Y solid state NMR as well as electron spin echo envelope modulation (ESEEM) of Yb-doped samples. The latter technique has been applied for the first time to an aluminoborate glass system. (11)B magic-angle spinning (MAS)-NMR spectra reveal that, while the majority of the boron atoms are three-coordinated over the entire composition region, the fraction of three-coordinated boron atoms increases significantly with increasing x. Charge balance considerations as well as (11)B NMR lineshape analyses suggest that the dominant borate species are predominantly singly charged metaborate (BO(2/2)O(-)), doubly charged pyroborate (BO(1/2)(O(-))(2)), and (at x = 0.40) triply charged orthoborate groups. As x increases along this series, the average anionic charge per trigonal borate group increases from 1.38 to 2.91. (27)Al MAS-NMR spectra show that the alumina species are present in the coordination states four, five and six, and the fraction of four-coordinated Al increases markedly with increasing x. All of the Al coordination states are in intimate contact with both the three-and the four-coordinate boron species and vice versa, as indicated by (11)B/(27)Al rotational echo double resonance (REDOR) data. These results are consistent with the formation of a homogeneous, non-segregated glass structure. (89)Y solid state NMR spectra show a significant chemical shift trend, reflecting that the second coordination sphere becomes increasingly ""aluminate-like'' with increasing x. This conclusion is supported by electron spin echo envelope modulation (ESEEM) data of Yb-doped glasses, which indicate that both borate and aluminate species participate in the medium range structure of the rare-earth ions, consistent with a random spatial distribution of the glass components.