The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Polydimethylsiloxane: a new contrast material for localization of occult breast lesions

Background. The radioguided localization of occult breast lesions (ROLL) technique often utilizes iodinated radiographic contrast to assure that the local injection of (99m)Tc-MAA corresponds to the location of the lesion under investigation. However, for this application, this contrast has several shortcomings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the safety, effectiveness and technical feasibility of the use of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) as radiological contrast and tissue marker in ROLL. Materials and methods. The safety assessment was performed by the acute toxicity study in Wistar rats (n = 50). The radiological analysis of breast tissue (n = 32) from patients undergoing reductive mammoplasty was used to verify the effectiveness of PDMS as contrast media. The technical feasibility was evaluated through the scintigraphic and histologic analysis. Results. We found no toxic effects of PDMS for this use during the observational period. It has been demonstrated in human breast tissue that the average diameter of the tissue marked by PDMS was lower than when marked by the contrast medium (p <0.001). PDMS did not interfere with the scintigraphic uptake (p = 0.528) and there was no injury in histological processing of samples. Conclusions. This study demonstrated not only the superiority of PDMS as radiological contrast in relation to the iodinated contrast, but also the technical feasibility for the same applicability in the ROLL.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

Expression and cellular localization of microRNA-29b and RAX, an activator of the RNA-dependent protein kinase (PKR), in the retina of streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats

Purpose: The apoptosis of retinal neurons plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of diabetic retinopathy (DR), but the molecular mechanisms underlying this phenomenon remain unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the cellular localization and the expression of microRNA-29b (miR-29b) and its potential target PKR associated protein X (RAX), an activator of the pro-apoptotic RNA-dependent protein kinase (PKR) signaling pathway, in the retina of normal and diabetic rats. Methods: Retinas were obtained from normal and diabetic rats within 35 days after streptozotocin (STZ) injection. In silico analysis indicated that RAX is a potential target of miR-29b. The cellular localization of miR-29b and RAX was assessed by in situ hybridization and immunofluorescence, respectively. The expression levels of miR-29b and RAX mRNA were evaluated by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR), and the expression of RAX protein was evaluated by western blot. A luciferase reporter assay and inhibition of endogenous RAX were performed to confirm whether RAX is a direct target of miR-29b as predicted by the in silico analysis. Results: We found that miR-29b and RAX are localized in the retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) and the cells of the inner nuclear layer (INL) of the retinas from normal and diabetic rats. Thus, the expression of miR-29b and RAX, as assessed in the retina by quantitative RT-PCR, reflects their expression in the RGCs and the cells of the INL. We also revealed that RAX protein is upregulated (more than twofold) at 3, 6, 16, and 22 days and downregulated (70%) at 35 days, whereas miR-29b is upregulated (more than threefold) at 28 and 35 days after STZ injection. We did not confirm the computational prediction that RAX is a direct target of miR-29b. Conclusions: Our results suggest that RAX expression may be indirectly regulated by miR-29b, and the upregulation of this miRNA at the early stage of STZ-induced diabetes may have a protective effect against the apoptosis of RGCs and cells of the INL by the pro-apoptotic RNA-dependent protein kinase (PKR) signaling pathway.

High spatial resolution spectroscopy of W51IRS 2E and IRS 2W: Two very massive young stars in early formation stages

We present K-band spectra of the near infrared counterparts to IRS 2E and IRS 2W which is associated with the ultracompact H II region W51d, both of them embedded sources in the Galactic compact H II region W51 IRS 2. The high spatial resolution observations were obtained with the laser guide star facility and Near-infrared Integral Field Spectrograph (NIFS) mounted at the Gemini-North observatory. The spectrum of the ionizing source of W51d shows the photospheric features N III ( 21155 angstrom) in emission and He II ( 21897 angstrom) in absorption which lead us to classify it as a young O3 type star. We detected CO overtone in emission at 23000 angstrom in the spectrum of IRS 2E, suggesting that it is a massive young object still surrounded by an accretion disk, probably transitioning from the hot core phase to an ultracompact H II region.

Spatial patterns in the brood combs of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Meliponinae): male clusters

Genetic models of sex and caste determination in eusocial stingless bees suggest specific patterns of male, worker and gyne cell distribution in the brood comb. Conflict between queen and laying workers over male parentage and center-periphery gradients of conditions, such as food and temperature, could also contribute to non-random spatial configuration. We converted the positions of the hexagonal cells in a brood comb to Cartesian coordinates, labeled by sex or caste of the individuals inside. To detect and locate clustered patterns, the mapped brood combs were evaluated by indexes of dispersion (MMC, mean distance of cells of a given category from their centroid) and eccentricity (DMB, distance between this centroid and the overall brood comb centroid) that we developed. After randomizing the labels and recalculating the indexes, we calculated probabilities that the original values had been generated by chance. We created sets of binary brood combs in which males were aggregated, regularly or randomly distributed among females. These stylized maps were used to describe the power of MMC and DMB, and they were applied to evaluate the male distribution in the sampled Nannotrigona testaceicornis brood combs. MMC was very sensitive to slight deviations from a perfectly rounded clump; DMB detected any asymmetry in the location of these compact to fuzzy clusters. Six of the 82 brood combs of N. testaceicornis that we analyzed had more than nine males, distributed according to variations in spatial patterns, as indicated by the two indexes.

Effects of protein deprivation and re-feeding on P2X(2) receptors in enteric neurons

AIM: To investigate the effects of malnutrition and refeeding on the P2X(2) receptor, nitric oxide synthase (NOS), calretinin, calbindin and choline acetyltransferase (ChAT) in neurons of the rat ileum. METHODS: We analyzed the co-localization, numbers and sizes of P2X(2)-expressing neurons in relation to NOS-IR (immunoreactive), calbindin-IR, ChAT-IR, and calretinin-IR neurons of the myenteric and submucosal plexus. The experimental groups consisted of: (1) rats maintained on normal feed throughout pregnancy until 42 d post-parturition (N); (2) rats deprived of protein throughout pregnancy and 42 d post-parturition (D); and (3) rats undernourished for 21 d post-parturition and then given a protein diet from days 22 to 42 (DR). The myenteric and submucosal plexuses were evaluated by double labeling by immunohistochemical methods for P2X(2) receptor, NOS, ChAT, calbindin and calretinin. RESULTS: We found similar P2X(2) receptor immunoreactivity in the cytoplasm and surface membranes of myenteric and submucosal neurons from the N, D and DR groups. Double labeling of the myenteric plexus demonstrated that approximately 100% of NOS-IR, calbindin-IR, calretinin-IR and ChAT-IR neurons in all groups also expressed the P2X(2) receptor. In the submucosal plexus, the calretinin-IR, ChAT-IR and calbindinIR neurons were nearly all immunoreactive for the P2X(2) receptor. In the myenteric plexus, there was a 19% increase in numbers per cm(2) for P2X(2) receptor-IR neurons, 64% for NOS-IR, 84% for calretinin-IR and 26% for ChAT-IR neurons in the D group. The spatial density of calbindin-IR neurons, however, did not differ among the three groups. The submucosal neuronal density increased for calbindin-IR, calretinin-IR and ChAT-IR neurons. The average size of neurons in the myenteric plexus neurons in the D group was less than that in the controls and, in the re-fed rats; there was a 34% reduction in size only for the calretinin-IR neurons. CONCLUSION: This work demonstrates that expression of the P2X(2) receptor is present in inhibitory, intrinsic primary afferent, cholinergic secretomotor and vasomotor neurons. Undernutrition affected P2X(2) receptor expression in the submucosal plexus, and neuronal and size. These changes were rescued in the re-fed rats. (C) 2010 Baishideng. All rights reserved.

Gene Expression Noise in Spatial Patterning: hunchback Promoter Structure Affects Noise Amplitude and Distribution in Drosophila Segmentation

Positional information in developing embryos is specified by spatial gradients of transcriptional regulators. One of the classic systems for studying this is the activation of the hunchback (hb) gene in early fruit fly (Drosophila) segmentation by the maternally-derived gradient of the Bicoid (Bcd) protein. Gene regulation is subject to intrinsic noise which can produce variable expression. This variability must be constrained in the highly reproducible and coordinated events of development. We identify means by which noise is controlled during gene expression by characterizing the dependence of hb mRNA and protein output noise on hb promoter structure and transcriptional dynamics. We use a stochastic model of the hb promoter in which the number and strength of Bcd and Hb (self-regulatory) binding sites can be varied. Model parameters are fit to data from WT embryos, the self-regulation mutant hb(14F), and lacZ reporter constructs using different portions of the hb promoter. We have corroborated model noise predictions experimentally. The results indicate that WT (self-regulatory) Hb output noise is predominantly dependent on the transcription and translation dynamics of its own expression, rather than on Bcd fluctuations. The constructs and mutant, which lack self-regulation, indicate that the multiple Bcd binding sites in the hb promoter (and their strengths) also play a role in buffering noise. The model is robust to the variation in Bcd binding site number across a number of fly species. This study identifies particular ways in which promoter structure and regulatory dynamics reduce hb output noise. Insofar as many of these are common features of genes (e. g. multiple regulatory sites, cooperativity, self-feedback), the current results contribute to the general understanding of the reproducibility and determinacy of spatial patterning in early development.

Delocalization-localization transition of plasmons in random (GaAs)(m)(Al(0.3)Ga(0.7)As)(6) superlattices

The transition of plasmons from propagating to localized state was studied in disordered systems formed in GaAs/AlGaAs superlattices by impurities and by artificial random potential. Both the localization length and the linewidth of plasmons were measured by Raman scattering. The vanishing dependence of the plasmon linewidth on the disorder strength was shown to be a manifestation of the strong plasmon localization. The theoretical approach based on representation of the plasmon wave function in a Gaussian form well accounted for by the obtained experimental data.

Effect of spatial inhomogeneity on the mapping between strongly interacting fermions and weakly interacting spins

A combined analytical and numerical study is performed of the mapping between strongly interacting fermions and weakly interacting spins, in the framework of the Hubbard, t-J, and Heisenberg models. While for spatially homogeneous models in the thermodynamic limit the mapping is thoroughly understood, we here focus on aspects that become relevant in spatially inhomogeneous situations, such as the effect of boundaries, impurities, superlattices, and interfaces. We consider parameter regimes that are relevant for traditional applications of these models, such as electrons in cuprates and manganites, and for more recent applications to atoms in optical lattices. The rate of the mapping as a function of the interaction strength is determined from the Bethe-Ansatz for infinite systems and from numerical diagonalization for finite systems. We show analytically that if translational symmetry is broken through the presence of impurities, the mapping persists and is, in a certain sense, as local as possible, provided the spin-spin interaction between two sites of the Heisenberg model is calculated from the harmonic mean of the onsite Coulomb interaction on adjacent sites of the Hubbard model. Numerical calculations corroborate these findings also in interfaces and superlattices, where analytical calculations are more complicated.

The role of electron localization in the atomic structure of transition-metal 13-atom clusters: the example of Co(13), Rh(13), and Hf(13)

The crystalline structure of transition-metals (TM) has been widely known for several decades, however, our knowledge on the atomic structure of TM clusters is still far from satisfactory, which compromises an atomistic understanding of the reactivity of TM clusters. For example, almost all density functional theory (DFT) calculations for TM clusters have been based on local (local density approximation-LDA) and semilocal (generalized gradient approximation-GGA) exchange-correlation functionals, however, it is well known that plain DFT fails to correct the self-interaction error, which affects the properties of several systems. To improve our basic understanding of the atomic and electronic properties of TM clusters, we report a DFT study within two nonlocal functionals, namely, the hybrid HSE (Heyd, Scuseria, and Ernzerhof) and GGA + U functionals, of the structural and electronic properties of the Co(13), Rh(13), and Hf(13) clusters. For Co(13) and Rh(13), we found that improved exchange-correlation functionals decrease the stability of open structures such as the hexagonal bilayer (HBL) and double simple-cubic (DSC) compared with the compact icosahedron (ICO) structure, however, DFT-GGA, DFT-GGA + U, and DFT-HSE yield very similar results for Hf(13). Thus, our results suggest that the DSC structure obtained by several plain DFT calculations for Rh(13) can be improved by the use of improved functionals. Using the sd hybridization analysis, we found that a strong hybridization favors compact structures, and hence, a correct description of the sd hybridization is crucial for the relative energy stability. For example, the sd hybridization decreases for HBL and DSC and increases for ICO in the case of Co(13) and Rh(13), while for Hf(13), the sd hybridization decreases for all configurations, and hence, it does not affect the relative stability among open and compact configurations.

Environmental and grazing influence on spatial variability of intertidal biofilm on subtropical rocky shores

Epilithic biofilm on rocky shores is regulated by physico-chemical and biological factors and is important as a source of food for benthic organisms. The influences of environmental and grazing pressure on spatial variability of biomass of biofilm were evaluated on shores on the north coast of Sao Paulo State (SE Brazil). A general trend of greater abundance of microalgae was observed lower on the shore, but neither of the environmental factors evaluated (wave exposure and shore level) showed consistent effects, and differences were found among specific shores or times (September 2007 and March 2008). The abundance of slow-moving grazers (limpets and littorinids) showed a negative correlation with chlorophyll a concentration on shores. However, experimental exclusion of these grazers failed to show consistent results at small spatial scales. Observations of divergent abundances of the isopod Ligia exotica and biomass of biofilm on isolated boulders on shores led to a short exclusion experiment, where the grazing pressure by L. exotica significantly decreased microalgal biomass. The result suggests that grazing activities of this fast-moving consumer probably mask the influence of slow-moving grazers at small spatial scales, while both have an additive effect at larger scales that masks environmental influences. This is the first evaluation of the impact of the fast-moving herbivore L. exotica on microalgal biomass on rocky shores and opens an interesting discussion about the role of these organisms in subtropical coastal environments.

Understanding the Influences of Spatial Patterns on N Availability Within the Brazilian Amazon Forest

Nitrogen variations at different spatial scales and integrated across functional groups were addressed for lowland tropical forests in the Brazilian Amazon as follows: (1) how does N availability vary across the region over different spatial scales (regional x landscape scale); ( 2) how are these variations in N availability integrated across plant functional groups ( legume 9 non-legume trees). Leaf N, P, and Ca concentrations as well the leaf N isotope ratios (delta(15)N) from a large set of legume and non-legume tree species were measured. Legumes had higher foliar N/Ca ratios than non-legumes, consistent with the high energetic costs in plant growth associated with higher foliar P/Ca ratios found in legumes than in non-legumes. At the regional level, foliar delta(15)N decreased with increasing rainfall. At the landscape level, N availability was higher in the forests on clayey soils on the plateau than in forests on sandier soils. The isotope as well as the non-isotope data relationships here documented, explain to a large extent the variation in delta(15)N signatures across gradients of rainfall and soil. Although at the regional level, the precipitation regime is a major determinant of differences in N availability, at the landscape level, under the same precipitation regime, soil type seems to be a major factor influencing the availability of N in the Brazilian Amazon forest.

Spatial variation in the strength of mutualism between a jumping spider and a terrestrial bromeliad: Evidence from the stable isotope N-15

Psecas chapoda, a neotropical jumping spider strictly associated with the terrestrial bromeliad Bromelia balansae in cerrados and semi-deciduous forests in South America, effectively contributes to plant nutrition and growth. In this study, our goal was to investigate if spider density caused spatial variations in the strength of this spider-plant mutualism. We found a positive significant relationship between spider density and delta N-15 values for bromeliad leaves in different forest fragments. Open grassland Bromeliads were associated with spiders and had higher delta N-15 values compared to forest bromeliads. Although forest bromeliads had no association with spiders their total N concentrations were higher. These results suggest that bromeliad nutrition is likely more litter-based in forests and more spider-based in open grasslands. This study is one of the few to show nutrient provisioning and conditionality in a spider-plant system. (c) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.