A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark

Impact assessment of an integrated approach for thermal power generation plants asset management in the current energy market

El sector energético, en España en particular, y de forma similar en los principales países de Europa, cuenta con una significativa sobrecapacidad de generación, debido al rápido y significativo crecimiento de las energías renovables en los últimos diez años y la reducción de la demanda energética, como consecuencia de la crisis económica. Esta situación ha hecho que las centrales térmicas de generación de electricidad, y en concreto los ciclos combinados de gas, operen con un factor de utilización extremadamente bajo, del orden del 10%. Además de la reducción de ingresos, esto supone para las plantas trabajar continuamente fuera del punto de diseño, provocando una significativa pérdida de rendimiento y mayores costes de explotación. En este escenario, cualquier contribución que ayude a mejorar la eficiencia y la condición de los equipos, es positivamente considerada. La gestión de activos está ganando relevancia como un proceso multidisciplinar e integrado, tal y como refleja la reciente publicación de las normas ISO 55000:2014. Como proceso global e integrado, la gestión de activos requiere el manejo de diversos procesos y grandes volúmenes de información, incluso en tiempo real. Para ello es necesario utilizar tecnologías de la información y aplicaciones de software. Esta tesis desarrolla un concepto integrado de gestión de activos (Integrated Plant Management – IPM) aplicado a centrales de ciclo combinado y una metodología para estimar el beneficio aportado por el mismo. Debido a las incertidumbres asociadas a la estimación del beneficio, se ha optado por un análisis probabilístico coste-beneficio. Así mismo, el análisis cuantitativo se ha completado con una validación cualitativa del beneficio aportado por las tecnologías incorporadas al concepto de gestión integrada de activos, mediante una entrevista realizada a expertos del sector de generación de energía. Los resultados del análisis coste-beneficio son positivos, incluso en el desfavorable escenario con un factor de utilización de sólo el 10% y muy prometedores para factores de utilización por encima del 30%. ABSTRACT The energy sector particularly in Spain, and in a similar way in Europe, has a significant overcapacity due to the big growth of the renewable energies in the last ten years, and it is seriously affected by the demand decrease due to the economic crisis. That situation has forced the thermal plants and in particular, the combined cycles to operate with extremely low annual average capacity factors, very close to 10%. Apart from the incomes reduction, working in out-of-design conditions, means getting a worse performance and higher costs than expected. In this scenario, anything that can be done to improve the efficiency and the equipment condition is positively received. Asset Management, as a multidisciplinary and integrated process, is gaining prominence, reflected in the recent publication of the ISO 55000 series in 2014. Dealing Asset Management as a global, integrated process needs to manage several processes and significant volumes of information, also in real time, that requires information technologies and software applications to support it. This thesis proposes an integrated asset management concept (Integrated Plant Management-IPM) applied to combined cycle power plants and develops a methodology to assess the benefit that it can provide. Due to the difficulties in getting deterministic benefit estimation, a statistical approach has been adopted for the cot-benefit analysis. As well, the quantitative analysis has been completed with a qualitative validation of the technologies included in the IPM and their contribution to key power plant challenges by power generation sector experts. The cost- benefit analysis provides positive results even in the negative scenario of annual average capacity factor close to 10% and is promising for capacity factors over 30%.

Fresnel-based modular solar fields for performance/cost optimization in solar thermal power plants: A comparison with parabolic trough collectors.

Linear Fresnel collectors are identified as a technology that should play a main role in order to reduce cost of Concentrating Solar Power. An optical and thermal analysis of the different blocks of the solar power plant is carried out, where Fresnel arrays are compared with the most extended linear technology: parabolic trough collectors. It is demonstrated that the optical performance of Fresnel array is very close to that of PTC, with similar values of maximum flux intensities. In addition, if the heat carrier fluid flows in series by the tubes of the receiver, relatively high thermal efficiencies are achieved. Thus, an annual solar to electricity efficiency of 19% is expected, which is similar to the state of the art in PTCs; this is done with a reduction of costs, thanks to lighter structures, that drives to an estimation of LCOE of around 6.5 c€/kWh.

Symposium on Energy and Human Health : human costs of electric power generation /

Mode of access: Internet.

Combined desalination and power generation using coal energy.

Phase I report. Site selection and estimated water costs based on current technology. Phase II report. Investigation of emerging technology, by-product recovery, and very large capacities. Period of performance: June 1965-Oct. 1966.

Electrogasdynamic power generation; an evaluation of work performed by Fourdine Systems, Incorporated under OCR Contract no. 14-01-0001-495 for Office of Coal Research, Dept. of the Interior,

Cover title: Separate evaluations of electrogasdynamic (EGD) power generation.

Investigation of new concepts for microwave power generation (plasma studies) /

"December 1963."

Open-cycle magnetohydrodynamic electrical power generation /

Added t.p.: Magnitogidrodinamicheskoe preobrazovanie ėnergii otkrytyĭ t︠s︡ikl.

Modern environmental improvement pathways for the coal power generation industry in Australia

In this work we assess the pathways for environmental improvement by the coal utilization industry for power generation in Australia. In terms of resources, our findings show that coal is a long term resource of concern as coal reserves are likely to last for the next 500 years or more. However, our analysis indicates that evaporation losses of water in power generation will approach 1000 Gl (gigalitres) per year, equivalent to a consumption of half of the Australian residential population. As Australia is the second driest continent on earth, water consumption by power generators is a resource of immediate concern with regards to sustainability. We also show that coal will continue to play a major role in energy generation in Australia and, hence, there is a need to employ new technologies that can minimize environmental impacts. The major technologies to reduce impacts to air, water and soils are addressed. Of major interest, there is a major potential for developing sequestration processes in Australia, in particular by enhanced coal bed methane (ECBM) recovery at the Bowen Basin, South Sydney Basin and Gunnedah Basin. Having said that, CO2 capture technologies require further development to support any sequestration processes in order to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Current power generation cycles are thermodynamic limited, with 35-40% efficiencies. To move to a high efficiency cycle, it is required to change technologies of which integrated gasification combined cycle plus fuel cell is the most promising, with efficiencies expected to reach 60-65%. However, risks of moving towards an unproven technology means that power generators are likely to continue to use pulverized fuel technologies, aiming at incremental efficiency improvements (business as usual). As a big picture pathway, power generators are likely to play an increasing role in regional development; in particular EcoParks and reclaiming saline water for treatment as pressures to access fresh water supplies will significantly increase.

Sustainability metrics for coal power generation in Australia

The basis of this work was to investigate the relative environmental impacts of various power generators knowing that all plants are located in totally different environments and that different receptors will experience different impacts. Based on IChemE sustainability metrics paradigm, we calculated potential environmental indicators (P-EI) that represent the environmental burden of masses of potential pollutants discharged into different receiving media. However, a P-EI may not be of significance, as it may not be expressed at all in different conditions, so to try and include some receiver significance we developed a methodology to take into account some specific environmental indicators (S-EI) that refer to the environmental attributes of a specific site. In this context, we acquired site specific environmental data related to the airsheds and water catchment areas in different locations for a limited number of environmental indicators such as human health (carcinogenic) effects, atmospheric acidification, photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication. The S-EI results from this particular analysis show that atmospheric acidification has highest impact value while health risks due to fly ash emissions are considered not to be as significant. This is due to the fact that many coal power plants in Australia are located in low population density air sheds. The contribution of coal power plants to photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication were not significant. In this study, we have considered emission related data trends to reflect technology performance (e.g., P-EI indicators) while a real sustainability metric can be associated only with the specific environmental conditions of the relevant sites (e.g., S-EI indicators).

Power generation investment opportunities evaluation: A comparison between net present value and real options approach

To evaluate an investment project in the competitive electricity market, there are several key factors that affects the project's value: the present value that the project could bring to investor, the possible future course of actions that investor has and the project's management flexibility. The traditional net present value (NPV) criteria has the ability to capture the present value of the project's future cash flow, but it fails to assess the value brought by market uncertainty and management flexibility. By contrast with NPV, the real options approach (ROA) method has the advantage to combining the uncertainty and flexibility in evaluation process. In this paper, a framework for using ROA to evaluate the generation investment opportunity has been proposed. By given a detailed case study, the proposed framework is compared with NPV and showing a different results