The simulation of ship evacuation under fire conditions

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of fire and fire suppression systems and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based, but exceeding the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

Simulation of ship evacuation and passenger circulation

This paper describes work carried out in the FIRE EXIT research project. FIRE EXIT aims to develop an Evacuation Simulator, capable of addressing issues of mustering, ship motions, fire and abandonment. In achieving these aims, FIRE EXIT took as its starting point the state-of-the-art in ship evacuation simulation (the maritimeEXODUS software), fire simulation (the SMARTFIRE software) and large-scale experimental facilities (the SHEBA facility). It then significantly enhanced these capabilities. A number of new technologies have been developed in achieving these objectives. The innovations include directly linking CFD fire simulation with evacuation and abandonment software and automatic data transfer from concept design software allowing rapid generation of ship simulation models. Software usability was augmented by a module for interpretation of evacuation software output. Enhancements to a ship evacuation testing rig have resulted in a unique facility, capable of providing passenger movement data for realistic evacuation scenarios and large scale tests have provided meaningful data for the evacuation simulation.

The impact of the passenger response time distribution on ship evacuation performance

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted the use of computer simulation to assist in the assessment of the assembly time for passenger ships. A key parameter required for this analysis and specified as part of the IMO guidelines is the passenger response time distribution. It is demonstrated in this paper that the IMO specified response time distribution assumes an unrealistic mathematical form. This unrealistic mathematical form can lead to serious congestion issues being overlooked in the evacuation analysis and lead to incorrect conclusions concerning the suitability of vessel design. In light of these results, it is vital that IMO undertake research to generate passenger response time data suitable for use in evacuation analysis of passenger ships. Until this type of data becomes readily available, it is strongly recommended that rather than continuing to use the artificial and unrepresentative form of the response time distribution, IMO should adopt plausible and more realistic response time data derived from land based applications. © 2005: Royal Institution of Naval Architects.

Integrating personnel movement simulation into preliminary ship design

Traditionally, when designing a ship the driving issues are seen to be powering, stability, strength and seakeeping. Issues related to ship operations and evolutions are investigated later in the design process, within the constraint of a fixed layout. This can result in operational inefficiencies and limitations, excessive crew numbers and potentially hazardous situations. University College London and the University of Greenwich are in the final year of a three year EPSRC funded research project to integrate the simulation of personnel movement into early stage ship design. This allows the assessment of onboard operations while the design is still amenable to change. The project brings together the University of Greenwich developed maritimeEXODUS personnel movement simulation software and the SURFCON implementation of the Design Building Block approach to early stage ship design, which originated with the UCL Ship Design Research team. Central to the success of this project is the definition of a suitable series of Naval Combatant Human Performance Metrics which can be used to assess the performance of the design in different operational scenarios. The paper outlines the progress made on deriving the human performance metric from human factors criteria measured in simulations and their incorporation into a Behavioural Matrix for analysis. It describes the production of a series of SURFCON ship designs based on the RN Type 22 Batch 3 frigate, and their analysis using the PARAMARINE and maritimeEXODUS software. Conclusions to date will be presented on the integration of personnel movement simulation into the preliminary ship design process.

A systematic methodology to assess the impact of human factors in ship design

Evaluating ship layout for human factors (HF) issues using simulation software such as maritimeEXODUS can be a long and complex process. The analysis requires the identification of relevant evaluation scenarios; encompassing evacuation and normal operations; the development of appropriate measures which can be used to gauge the performance of crew and vessel and finally; the interpretation of considerable simulation data. Currently, the only agreed guidelines for evaluating HFs performance of ship design relate to evacuation and so conclusions drawn concerning the overall suitability of a ship design by one naval architect can be quite different from those of another. The complexity of the task grows as the size and complexity of the vessel increases and as the number and type of evaluation scenarios considered increases. Equally, it can be extremely difficult for fleet operators to set HFs design objectives for new vessel concepts. The challenge for naval architects is to develop a procedure that allows both accurate and rapid assessment of HFs issues associated with vessel layout and crew operating procedures. In this paper we present a systematic and transparent methodology for assessing the HF performance of ship design which is both discriminating and diagnostic. The methodology is demonstrated using two variants of a hypothetical naval ship.

Integrating personnel movement simulation into prelimary ship design

Traditionally, when designing a ship the driving issues are seen to be powering, stability, strength and seakeeping. Issues related to ship operations and evolutions are investigated later in the design process, within the constraint of a fixed layout. This can result in operational inefficiencies and limitations, excessive crew numbers and potentially hazardous situations. This paper summarises work by University College London and the University of Greenwich prior to the completion of a three year EPSRC funded research project to integrate the simulation of personnel movement into early stage ship design. This integration is intended to facilitate the assessment of onboard operations while the design is still highly amenable to change. The project brings together the University of Greenwich developed maritimeEXODUS personnel movement simulation software and the SURFCON implementation of the Design Building Block approach to early stage ship design, which originated with the UCL Ship Design Research team and has been implemented within the PARAMARINE ship design system produced by Graphics Research Corporation. Central to the success of this project is the definition of a suitable series of Performance Measures (PM) which can be used to assess the human performance of the design in different operational scenarios. The paper outlines the progress made on deriving the PM from human dynamics criteria measured in simulations and their incorporation into a Human Performance Metric (HPM) for analysis. It describes the production of a series of SURFCON ship designs, based on the Royal Navy’s Type 22 Batch 3 frigate, and their analysis using the PARAMARINE and maritimeEXODUS software. Conclusions on the work to date and for the remainder of the project are presented addressing the integration of personnel movement simulation into the preliminary ship design process.

Assessing the suitability of ship design for human factors issues associated with evacuation and normal operations

Evaluating ship layout for human factors (HF) issues using simulation software such as maritimeEXODUS can be a long and complex process. The analysis requires the identification of relevant evaluation scenarios; encompassing evacuation and normal operations; the development of appropriate measures which can be used to gauge the performance of crew and vessel and finally; the interpretation of considerable simulation data. In this paper we present a systematic and transparent methodology for assessing the HF performance of ship design which is both discriminating and diagnostic. The methodology is demonstrated using two variants of a hypothetical naval ship.

Dynamics of air–sea CO2 fluxes in the northwestern European shelf based on voluntary observing ship and satellite observations

From January 2011 to December 2013, we constructed a comprehensive pCO2 data set based on voluntary observing ship (VOS) measurements in the western English Channel (WEC). We subsequently estimated surface pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes in northwestern European continental shelf waters using multiple linear regressions (MLRs) from remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), wind speed (WND), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and modeled mixed layer depth (MLD). We developed specific MLRs for the seasonally stratified northern WEC (nWEC) and the permanently well-mixed southern WEC (sWEC) and calculated surface pCO2 with uncertainties of 17 and 16 μatm, respectively. We extrapolated the relationships obtained for the WEC based on the 2011–2013 data set (1) temporally over a decade and (2) spatially in the adjacent Celtic and Irish seas (CS and IS), two regions which exhibit hydrographical and biogeochemical characteristics similar to those of WEC waters. We validated these extrapolations with pCO2 data from the SOCAT and LDEO databases and obtained good agreement between modeled and observed data. On an annual scale, seasonally stratified systems acted as a sink of CO2 from the atmosphere of −0.6 ± 0.3, −0.9 ± 0.3 and −0.5 ± 0.3 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the northern Celtic Sea, southern Celtic sea and nWEC, respectively, whereas permanently well-mixed systems acted as source of CO2 to the atmosphere of 0.2 ± 0.2 and 0.3 ± 0.2 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the sWEC and IS, respectively. Air–sea CO2 fluxes showed important inter-annual variability resulting in significant differences in the intensity and/or direction of annual fluxes. We scaled the mean annual fluxes over these provinces for the last decade and obtained the first annual average uptake of −1.11 ± 0.32 Tg C yr−1 for this part of the northwestern European continental shelf. Our study showed that combining VOS data with satellite observations can be a powerful tool to estimate and extrapolate air–sea CO2 fluxes in sparsely sampled area.

Attribution of Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide over the English Channel to Dimethylsulfide and Changing Ship Emissions

Atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) was measured continuously from the Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory(PPAO) near Plymouth, United Kingdom between May 2014 and November 2015. This coastal site is exposed to marine air across a wide wind sector. The predominant southwesterly winds carry relatively clean background Atlantic air. In contrast, air from the southeast is heavily influenced by exhaust plumes from ships in the English Channel as well as near the Plymouth Sound. New International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulation came into force in January 2015 to reduce sulfur emissions tenfold in Sulfur Emission Control Areas such as the English Channel. Our observations suggest a three-fold reduction from 2014 to 2015 in ship-emitted SO2 from that direction. Apparent fuel sulfur content calculated from coincidental SO2 and carbon dioxide (CO2) peaks from local ship plum es show a high level of compliance to the IMO regulation (> 95 %) in both years. Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is an important source of atmospheric SO2 even in this semi-polluted region. The relative contribution of DMS oxidation to the SO2 burden over the English Channel increased from ~ 1/3 in 2014 to ~ 1/2 in 2015 due to the reduction in ship sulfur emissions. Our diel analysis suggests that SO2 is removed from the marine atmospheric boundary layer in about half a day, with dry deposition to the ocean accounting for a quarter of the total loss.