Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

Spawning cycles and habitats for ballyhoo (Hemiramphus brasiliensis) and balao (H. balao) in south Florida

Two halfbeak species, ballyhoo (Hemiramphus brasiliensis) and balao (H. balao), are harvested as bait in south Florida waters, and recent changes in fishing effort and regulations prompted this investigation of the overlap of halfbeak fishing grounds and spawning grounds. Halfbeaks were sampled aboard commercial fishing vessels, and during fishery-independent trips, to determine spatial and temporal spawning patterns of both species. Cyclic patterns of gonadosomatic indices (GSIs) indicated that both species spawned during spring and summer months. Histological analysis demonstrated that specific stages of oocyte development can be predicted from GSI values; for example, female ballyhoo with GSIs >6.0 had hydrated oocytes that were 2.0−3.5 mm diameter. Diel changes in oocyte diameters and histological criteria demonstrated that final oocyte maturation occurred over a 30- to 36-hour period and that ballyhoo spawned at dusk. Hydration of oocytes began in the morning, and ovulation occurred at sunset of that same day; therefore females with hydrated oocytes were ready to spawn within hours. We compared maps of all locations where fish were collected to maps of locations where spawning females (i.e. females with GSIs >6.0) were collected to determine the degree of overlap of halfbeak fishing and spawning grounds. We also used geographic information system (GIS) data to describe the depth and bottom type of halfbeak spawning grounds. Ballyhoo spawned all along the coral reef tract of the Atlantic Ocean, inshore of the reef tract, and in association with bank habitats within Florida Bay. In the Atlantic Ocean, balao spawned along the reef tract and in deeper, more offshore waters than did ballyhoo; balao were not found inshore of the coral reef tract or in Florida Bay. Both halfbeak species, considered together, spawned throughout the fishing grounds of south Florida.

A 139-year dendroclimatic cycle, cultural/environmental history, sunspots, and longer-term cycles

Higher resolution time-stratigraphic records suggest correlation of lower frequency paleoclimatic events with Milankovitch obliquity/precessional cycles and of higher frequency events with the evidently resonance-related Pettersson maximum tidal force (MTF) model. Subsequently published records, mainly pollen, seemingly confirm that atmospheric resonances may have modulated past climatic changes in phase with average MTF cycles of 1668, 1112, and 556 years, as calculated in anomalistic years from planetary movements by Stacey. Stacey accepts Pettersson's dating of AD 1433 (517 YBP) for the last major perihelian spring tide based solely on calculations of moon- and earth-orbital relations to the sun. Use of AD 1433 as an origin for the tidal resonance model seemingly continues to provide a best fit for the timing of cyclical patterns in the presented paleoclimate time series.

Physicochemical and biological cycles in a tide dominated, nitrogen-polluted temperate estuary

Spatio-temporal variations in the physicochemical and biological parameters in the Morlaix estuary on the Brittany coast of France were studied. Hydrographically, the estuary can be classified into 3 segments: the upper estuary where stratification always persists, the lower estuary where vertical homogeneity is permanent, and a middle estuary where there is a regular oscillation of stratification and homogeneity during every tidal cycle, stratification being associated with slack waters and homogeneity, with ebb and flood. Nitrogen pollution in the estuary is very intense.

Effects of rhFSH regimen and time interval on ovarian responses to repeated stimulation cycles in rhesus monkeys during a physiologic breeding season

We studied the effects of repeated stimulation by recombinant human FSH (rhFSH) at various time intervals during a physiologic breeding season in rhesus monkeys. Ovarian recovery and responses were assessed by ultrasonography, serum steroid concentrations

A novel method for rapid comparative quantitative analysis of nuclear fuel cycles

One of the greatest obstacles facing the nuclear industry is that of sustainability, both in terms of the finite reserves of uranium ore and the production of highly radiotoxic spent fuel which presents proliferation and environmental hazards. Alternative nuclear technologies have been suggested as a means of delivering enhanced sustainability with proposals including fast reactors, the use of thorium fuel and tiered fuel cycles. The debate as to which is the most appropriate technology continues, with each fuel system and reactor type delivering specific advantages and disadvantages which can be difficult to compare fairly. This paper demonstrates a framework of performance metrics which, coupled with a first-order lumped reactor model to determine nuclide population balances, can be used to quantify the aforementioned pros and cons for a range of different fuel and reactor combinations. The framework includes metrics such as fuel efficiency, spent fuel toxicity and proliferation resistance, and relative cycle performance is analysed through parallel coordinate plots, yielding a quantitative comparison of disparate cycles. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The performance of closed reactor grade plutonium-thorium fuel cycles in reduced-moderation pressurised water reactors

The production of long-lived transuranic (TRU) waste is a major disadvantage of fission-based nuclear power. Previous work has indicated that TRU waste can be virtually eliminated in a pressurised water reactor (PWR) fuelled with a mixture of thorium and TRU waste, when all actinides are returned to the reactor after reprocessing. However, the optimal configuration for a fuel assembly operating this fuel cycle is likely to differ from the current configuration. In this paper, the differences in performance obtained in a reduced-moderation PWR operating this fuel cycle were investigated using WIMS. The chosen configuration allowed an increase of at least 20% in attainable burn-up for a given TRU enrichment. This will be especially important if the practical limit on TRU enrichment is low. The moderator reactivity coefficients limit the enrichment possible in the reactor, and this limit is particularly severe if a negative void coefficient is required for a fully voided core. Several strategies have been identified to mitigate this. Specifically, the control system should be designed to avoid a detrimental effect on moderator reactivity coefficients. The economic viability of this concept is likely to be dependent on the achievable thermal-hydraulic operating conditions. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thorium fuel cycles for light water reactors: homogeneous design

The proliferation potential of the present light water reactor (LWR) fuel cycle is related primarily to the quantity and the quality of the residual Pu contained in the spent-fuel stockpile, although other potentially “weapons usable” materials are also a concern. Thorium-based nuclear fuel produces much smaller amounts of Pu in comparison with standard LWR fuel, and consequently, it is more proliferation resistant than conventional slightly enriched all-U fuel; the long-term toxicity of the spent-fuel stockpile is also reduced

The use of Th in HTR: State of the art and implementation in Th/Pu fuel cycles

Nowadays nuclear is the only greenhouse-free source that can appreciably respond to the increasing worldwide energy demand. The use of Thorium in the nuclear energy production may offer some advantages to accomplish this task. Extensive R&D on the thorium fuel cycle has been conducted in many countries around the world. Starting from the current nuclear waste policy, the EU-PUMA project focuses on the potential benefits of using the HTR core as a Pu/MA transmuter. In this paper the following aspects have been analysed: (1) the state-of-the-art of the studies on the use of Th in different reactors, (2) the use of Th in HTRs, with a particular emphasis on Th-Pu fuel cycles, (3) an original assessment of Th-Pu fuel cycles in HTR. Some aspects related to Thorium exploitation were outlined, particularly its suitability for working in pebble-bed HTR in a Th-Pu fuel cycle. The influence of the Th/Pu weight fraction at BOC in a typical HTR pebble was analysed as far as the reactivity trend versus burn-up, the energy produced per Pu mass, and the Pu isotopic composition at EOC are concerned. Although deeper investigations need to be performed in order to draw final conclusions, it is possible to state that some optimized Th percentage in the initial Pu/Th fuel could be suggested on the basis of the aim we are trying to reach. Copyright © 2009 Guido Mazzini et al.