Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Dielectric anomaly in strontium borate-bismuth vanadate glass nanocomposite

Transparent glass nanocomposites in the pseudo binary system (100 - x) SrB4O7 (SBO)-x Bi2VO5.5 (BiV) (0 less than or equal to n less than or equal to 70) were prepared by the splat quenching technique. The nano-crystallization of bismuth vanadate (BiV) in 50 SBO-50 BiV (in mol%) glass composite has been demonstrated. These were characterized for their structural, thermal and dielectric properties. As-quenched composites under study have been confirmed to be amorphous by X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) studies. The glass transition temperature (T-g) and crystallization temperatures (T-er) were determined using differential thermal analyses (DTA), High resolution transmission electron microscopic (HRTEM) studies carried out on heat-treated samples reveal the presence of spherical nanosize crystallites of Bi2VO5.5 (BiV) dispersed in the glassy matrix of SrB4O7 (SSO). The dielectric constant (epsilon (r)) and the dielectric loss (D) measurements were carried out on the as-quenched and heat-treated glass nanocomposite samples in the frequency range 100 Hz-10 MHz. The as-quenched and the heat-treated at two different temperatures (720 and 820 K) samples exhibited broad dielectric anomalies in the vicinity of the ferroelectric-to-paraelectric transition temperature of the parent BiV ceramics. The Curie-Weiss law was found to be valid at a temperature above the transition temperature, establishing the diffused nature of the transition. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Equalização dos recursos do MAC

Conteúdo: Média e alta complexidade ambulatorial (MAC)-- critérios alocativos dos recursos do SUS.

Análise de documentos encaminhados à Comissão Externa constituída para verificar a situação de saúde nos estados do Pará e Amapá e apresentação de relatório de aplicação de recursos da saúde nessas UFS

Consultoria de Orçamento e Fiscalização Financeira - Núcleo da Saúde.

A saúde no Brasil : história do Sistema Único de Saúde, arcabouço legal, organização, funcionamento, financiamento do SUS e as principais propostas de regulamentação da Emenda Constitucional nº 29, de 2000

Consultoria de Orçamento e Fiscalização Financeira, Núcleo de Saúde.

Implicações da não aprovação da lei complementar, a que se refere o § 3º do art. 198 da Constituição Federal (EC Nº 29/2000), nos gastos federais com saúde

Nome do autor na folha de rosto: Sidney A. Bittencourt.

Broughton Archipelago Clam Terrace Survey : final report

During a 1995 aerial video survey of the coastline of Johnstone Strait, an unusual shoreline feature was noted and termed “clam terraces” (inset) because of the terrace-type morphology and the apparent association with high clam productivity on the sandflats. Typical alongshore lengths of the terrace ridges are 20-50m, and across-shore widths are typically 20-40m. An area with an especially high density of clam terraces was noted in the Broughton Archipelago, between Broughton and Gilford Islands of southeastern Queen Charlotte Strait. Clam terraces in this area were inventoried from the aerial video imagery to quantify their distribution. The terraces accounted for over 14 km of shoreline and 365 clam terraces were documented. A three-day field survey by a coastal geomorphologist, archeologist and marine biologist was conducted to document the features and determine their origin. Nine clam terraces were surveyed. The field observations confirmed that: the ridges are comprised of boulder/cobblesized material, ridge crests are typically in the range of 1-1.5m above chart datum, sandflats are comprised almost entirely of shell fragments (barnacles and clams) and sandflats have very high shellfish production. There are an abundance of shell middens in the area (over 175) suggesting that the shellfish associated with the terraces were an important food source of aboriginal peoples. The origin of the ridges is unknown; they appear to be a relict feature in that they are not actively being modified by present-day processes. The ridges may be a relict sea-ice feature, although the mechanics of ridge formation is uncertain. Sand accumulates behind the ridge because the supply rate of the shell fragments exceeds the dispersal rate in these low energy environments. The high density areas of clam terraces correspond to high density areas of shell middens, and it is probable that the clam terraces were subjected to some degree of modification by aboriginal shellfish gatherers over the thousands of years of occupation in the region. (Document contains 39 pages)

PICES Press, Vol. 15, No. 1, January 2007

PICES science – 2006 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2006 Wooster Award (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Thank you note from the Past-Chairman of PICES (pdf, 0.1 Mb) A comparison of regional mechanisms for fish production: Ecosystem perspectives (pdf, 0.3 Mb) 2006 CREAMS/PICES international workshop and summer school (pdf, 0.2 Mb) PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.2 Mb) 2006 Harmful Algal Bloom Section annual workshop (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2006 PICES Workshop on “Modeling iron biogeochemistry and ocean ecosystems” (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Strolling through the NEMURO ecosystem model (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Climate and marine birds and mammals in the North Pacific (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Photo highlights of the PICES Fifteenth Annual Meeting (pdf, 3.5 Mb) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific: Cooler and fresher in summer of 2006 (pdf, 0.2 Mb) The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2006 (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Latest and upcoming PICES publications (pdf, 0.3 Mb) A seven-year effort of the PICES CCCC MODEL Task Team culminates in a dedicated issue of Ecological Modelling (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Japan joins PICES Marine Metadata Federation (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Argo: A 2006 status report (pdf, 0.3 Mb) New Chairmen in PICES (pdf, 0.2 Mb) PICES Interns (pdf, 0.2 Mb)

PICES Press, Vol. 14, No. 2, July 2006

The 2006 inter-sessional Science Board and Governing Council meeting: A note from the Chairman (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Future Integrative Science Program – Progress report (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Big-picture synthesis requires understanding the small and "in-between" stuff - A summary of the CCCC Synthesis Symposium (pdf, 0.4 Mb) PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Integration of ecological indicators for the North Pacific with emphasis on the Bering Sea (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Time series of the Northeast Pacific: A symposium to mark the 50th anniversary of Line-P (pdf, 0.1 Mb) PICES hosts an ESSAS workshop in St. Petersberg, Russia (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Professor Mikhail N. Koshlyakov (pdf, 0.5 Mb) The state of the western North Pacific in the second half of 2005 (pdf, 0.8 Mb) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Unusual invertebrates and fish observed in the Gulf of Alaska, 2004-2005 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf, 0.2 Mb) The Year of the Euphausiid (pdf, 0.01 Mb) Michio J. Kishi awarded 2005 Uda Prize by the Japan Society of Fisheries Oceanography (pdf, 0.03 Mb)

PICES Press, Vol. 14, No. 1, January 2006

The state of PICES science - 2005 (pdf, 0.2 Mb) 2005 Wooster Award (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Korea and U.S. federate metadata collection (pdf, 0.3 Mb) PICES Interns (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Studies on long-term variation of ocean ecosystem / climate interactions based on the Odate collection (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Hokkaido University Fisheries & Oceanographic Database CD-ROM (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Workshop on sardine and anchovy fluctuations (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Photo highlights of PICES XIV (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Workshop on SEEDS-II (pdf, 0.2 Mb) NPAFC-PICES joint symposium "The status of Pacific salmon and their role in North Pacific marine ecosystems" (pdf, 0.2 Mb) PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.2 Mb) New Chairman of the PICES Fishery Science Committee (pdf, 0.1 Mb) The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2005 (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Latest and upcoming PICES publications (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific (pdf, 0.2 Mb) The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf, 0.1 Mb) PICES and GLOBEC to sponsor workshop on sub-arctic seas (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Professor Mikhail N. Koshlyakov - 75 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Obituary - Dr. Al Tyler (pdf, 0.1 Mb)

PICES Press, Vol. 13, No. 2, July 2005

PICES in transition: The 3rd inter-sessional Science Board and Governing Council meeting (pdf 0.3 MB) New and upcoming PICES publications (pdf 0.3 MB) PICES hosts GLOBEC Symposium on “Climate Variability and Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystems” in Victoria (pdf 0.4 MB) First CREAMS/PICES Workshop on East Asian Seas Time-series (pdf 0.4 MB) PICES workshop discusses Oceanic Ecodynamics COmparison in the Subarctic Pacific (OECOS) - a project proposal (pdf 0.3 MB) The state of the western North Pacific in the second half of 2004 (pdf 0.4 MB) The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf 0.3 MB) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific (pdf 0.3 MB) CFAME workshop on “Developing a working plan for CCCC synthesis” (pdf 0.5 MB) What is winter? (pdf 0.5 MB) The first specimens of Humboldt squid in British Columbia (pdf 0.4 MB) Obituary - Dr. Daniel M. Ware (pdf 0.3 MB) PICES Calendar (pdf 0.3 MB)

PICES Press, Vol. 13, No. 1, January 2005

The state of PICES science - 2004 (pdf 0.7 MB) 2004 Wooster Award (pdf 0.2 MB) Micronekton – What are they and why are they important? (pdf 0.5 MB) Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems (pdf 0.1 MB) PICES Interns (pdf 0.1 MB) Report of the APN workshop on “Climate interactions and marine ecosystems” (pdf 0.6 MB) Photo highlights of PICES XIII (pdf 0.3 MB) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific – summer 2004 (pdf 0.1 MB) The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2004 (pdf 0.3 MB) The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf 0.1 MB) Study Group on Fisheries Ecosystem Responses to Recent Regime Shifts completes its mandate for the provision of scientific advice (pdf 0.1 MB) PICES Calendar (pdf 0.1 MB) The new PICES Working Group on Ecosystem-based management (pdf 0.05 MB) CO2 data integration activity for the North Pacific (pdf 0.2 MB) Carbon cycle changes in the North Pacific (pdf 0.8 MB) New and upcoming PICES publications (pdf 0.8 MB)

PICES Press, Vol. 12, No. 2, July 2004

The future of PICES [pdf, 1.7 MB] Paris by day - Symposium on "Quantative ecosystem indicators in fisheries management" [pdf, 0.2 MB] The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events [pdf, 0.4 MB] The state of the western North Pacific in the second half of 2003 [pdf, 0.7 MB] The state of the eastern North Pacific entering spring 2004 [pdf, 0.4 MB] PICES-IFEP Workshop on "In-situ iron enrichment experiments in the eastern and western subarctic Pacific" [pdf, 1.4 MB] Canadian SOLAS/PICES-IFEP session on "Response of the upper ocean to meso-scale iron enrichment" [pdf, 0.3 MB] Fisheries and ecosystem responses to recent regime shifts [pdf, 0.8 MB] PICES Interns [pdf, 0.8 MB] Did a regime shift occur in 1998 around Japan?- Highlights from a symposium addressing this question [pdf, 0.8 MB] The Global Ocean Carbon Observing System - Connecting national programs and regional networks [pdf, 1.7 MB] The North Pacific Ecosystem Metadatabase [pdf, 1.2 MB] International GLOBEC Symposium on "Climate variability and Sub-Arctic marine ecosystems" [pdf, 0.2 MB] PICES Calendar [pdf, 0.2 MB] PICES/GLOBEC Symposium on "Climate variability and ecosystem impacts on the North pacific: A basin-scale synthesis" [pdf, 0.2 MB]

PICES Press, Vol. 12, No. 1, January 2004

The state of PICES science - 2003 (pdf 281 KB) 2003 Wooster Award (pdf 764 KB) The state of the eastern North Pacific through summer 2003 (pdf 448 KB) The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf 951 KB) The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2003 (pdf 684 KB) The status of oceanic zooplankton in the eastern North Pacific (pdf 390 KB) The precautionary approach to the PDO (pdf 976 KB) Photo highlights of PICES XII (pdf 2.79 MB) William G. Pearcy: Renaissance oceanographer (pdf 2.86 MB) KORDI/PICES/CoML Workshop on "Variability and status of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea ecosystems (pdf 785 KB) PICES/IOC Workshop on "Harmful algal blooms - Harmonization of data" (pdf 330 KB) From physics to predators: Monitoring North Pacific ecosystem dynamics (pdf 270 KB) Toward a coast-wide network of Northeast Pacific coastal-ocean monitoring programs - a brief workshop report (pdf 640) PICES publications (pdf 103 KB) PICES calendar (pdf 45 KB)

PICES Press, Vol. 11, No. 2, July 2003

Cover [pdf, 1.2 Mb] PICES Science Board and Governing Council hold their first joint meeting [pp. 1-3] [pdf, 0.2 Mb] 3rd International Zooplankton Production Symposium [pp. 4-7] [pdf, 0.6 Mb] The state of the eastern North Pacific entering spring 2003 [pp. 8-9] [pdf, 0.4 Mb] The state of the western North Pacific in 2002 [pp. 10-13] [pdf, 0.6 Mb] The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events [pp. 14-15] [pdf. 0.7 Mb] Patricia Livingston [pp. 16-19] [pdf. 0.5 Mb] Recent changes in the abundance of northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) off the Pacific Northwest, tracking a regime shift? [pp. 20-21] [pdf. 0.6 Mb] Developing new scientific programs in PICES [pp. 22-26] [pdf. 0.2 Mb] Report of the Yokohama 2003 MODEL Task Team Workshop to develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes [pp. 27-29] [pdf. 0.5 Mb] 3rd PICES Workshop on the Okhotsk Sea and adjacent Areas [pp.30-31] [pdf. 0.4 Mb] Recent oceanographic and marine environmental studies at FERHRI [pp.32-34] [pdf. 0.4 Mb] Symposium Announcement [p. 35] [pdf. 0.3 Mb] PICES announcements [p. 36] [pdf. 0.3 Mb]