ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL UNIFICATION OF GERMANY: 1815-1871. PART 2: THE SHARE OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN THE ECONOMY..

Rapport de recherche

Predictability Of Share Prices In India: A Study Of The Applicability Of Technical Analysis

In spite of the far longed practices of technical analysis by many participants in Indian stock market, none have arrived at the exact position of technical analysis as a tool for foretelling share prices. There is no evidence supporting that one has established its definite role in predicting the behaviour of share price and also to see the extent of validity (how far reliable) of technical tools in Indian stock market. The problem is the vacuum in the arena of securities market analysis where an unrecognised tool is practised, i.e., whether to hold on to technical analysis or to drop it. Again, as already stated in this chapter, its validity need not continue forever. It may become futile as happened in developed markets. Continuous practice of a tool, which is valid only during discontinuous times is also an error. The efficacy of different market phenomena in terms of their ability to foretell the extent and direction of the price movements and reliability thereof remain as not yet proved in. This requires further study in this area so that this controversy may be settled. A solution to the problem requires enquiring and establishing the applicability of technical analysis, if any, there is in the Indian stock market. The study has the following two broad objectives for the purpose of confirming the applicability, if any, of technical analysis in the Indian stock market. The first objective is to ascertain the current validity of ‘traditional holding with respect to patterns’ and the second objective is to ascertain the ‘consistent superiority’, if any, of technical indicators over non-signal strategies in return generation. The study analyses the five patterns, which are widely known and commonly found in publications. They are: (1) Symmetrical Triangles, (2) Rising Wedges, (3) Falling Wedges, (4) Head and Shoulders Top and (5) Head and Shoulders Bottom.

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Re-measuring labor's share

Measuring labor's share of an economy's aggregate income seems straightforward, at least in principle. Count up wage and salary income, along with the value of benefits provided to employees, and divide it by total income. However, one fundamental concept of labor's share in macroeconomic theory is not the amount of aggregate income paid out to labor. Rather, it is the share of aggregate production that is attributable to "raw" units of labor. Or, otherwise stated, it is the share of aggregate income that would have been paid to laborers if they had no accumulated stocks of human capital.1 This share corresponds to an aggregate production function parameter: the elasticity of output with respect to physical (i.e. non-augmented or raw) units of labor (Robert Solow, 1957). In this paper we estimate annual raw labor’s share for the US, 1949 to 1996.