A disztribúció kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó ellátási és működési kockázatok (Supply and operational risks in the outsourcing of distribution management)

A cikk célja, hogy elemző bemutatását adja az ellátási láncok működéséhez, különösen a disztribúciós tevékenység kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó működési kockázatoknak. Az írás első része az irodalomkutatás eredményeit feldolgozva az ellátási láncok kockázati kitettségének növekedése mögött rejlő okokat törekszik feltárni, s röviden bemutatja a vállalati kockázatkezelés lehetséges lépéseit e téren. A cikk második gondolati egysége mélyinterjúk segítségével összefoglalja és rendszerezi a disztribúció kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó kockázatokat, számba veszi a kapcsolódó kockázatkezelési lehetőségeket, s bemutatja a megkérdezett vállalatok által alkalmazott kockázat-megelőzési alternatívákat. ______ The aim of this paper is to introduce operational risks of supply chains, especially risks deriving from the outsourcing of distribution management. Based on literature review the first part of the paper talks about the potential reasons of increasing global supply chain risks, and the general business activities of risk assessment. Analyzing the results of semi-structured qualitative interviews, the second part summarizes the risks belonging to the outsourcing of distribution and introduces the potential risk assessment and avoidance opportunities and alternatives in practice.

RISKS TO FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS FROM CLIMATE POLICIES: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS WITH ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO 2050

Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers’ well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA). My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA. As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Climate change and irrigation water requirement at Jaguaribe river basin, semi-arid northeast of Brazil.

Summary: Climate change has a potential to impact rainfall, temperature and air humidity, which have relation to plant evapotranspiration and crop water requirement. The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on irrigation water demand, based on future scenarios derived from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), using boundary conditions of the HadCM3 submitted to a dynamic downscaling nested to the Hadley Centre regional circulation model HadRM3P. Monthly time series for average temperature and rainfall were generated for 1961-90 (baseline) and the future (2040). The reference evapotranspiration was estimated using monthly average temperature. Projected climate change impact on irrigation water demand demonstrated to be a result of evapotranspiration and rainfall trend. Impacts were mapped over the target region by using geostatistical methods. An increase of the average crop water needs was estimated to be 18.7% and 22.2% higher for 2040 A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Objective ? To analyze the climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements, using downscaling techniques of a climate change model, at the river basin scale. Method: The study area was delimited between 4º39?30? and 5º40?00? South and 37º35?30? and 38º27?00? West. The crop pattern in the target area was characterized, regarding type of irrigated crops, respective areas and cropping schedules, as well as the area and type of irrigation systems adopted. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system (Jones et al., 2004) was used for generating climate predictions for the target area, using the boundary conditions of the Hadley Centre model HadCM3 (Johns et al., 2003). The considered time scale of interest for climate change impacts evaluation was the year of 2040, representing the period of 2025 to 2055. The output data from the climate model was interpolated, considering latitude/longitude, by applying ordinary kriging tools available at a Geographic Information System, in order to produce thematic maps.

Defending the 'public interest': an assessment of competing actor representations of 'solutions' to growing natural resource deficiencies.

This paper applies a SRT framework to the study of two case studies, namely the recent campaign of opposition to the legalization of hydraulic fracking in the State of New York and the more ongoing debate on land leasing in Africa. In relation to both campaigns, the analysis accounts for the arguments of a major financial institution and industry representatives who stress the safe and value-adding dimensions of these practices, as well as the views of opponents who refute the validity of industry's position and point to the unacceptable risks posed to the community, health and the environment. In spite of a number of obvious differences between these two case studies, not least differences arising from contrasting socio-economic and geo-political settings, there were also some notable similarities. First, was a tendency amongst protesters in both cases to formulate their role as contemporaries in a historically extended struggle for democratic justice. All perceived of themselves as guardians of their community's right to resist a corporate 'invasion' of their territories, like their forefathers and mothers before them. A theme of colonialism was explored in both settings through various identity and thematic anchoring devices that deliberately evoked shared understandings and historical memories of exploitation and human suffering. The evocation of powerful symbols of identity through visual narratives of protest further reinforced the cultural comprehensibility of opponents' message of protest in both contexts.

Competing in the new economy through large scale collaborative ventures (LSCV): a strategic marketing approach based on a study of the multifunction polis.

This paper draws on a study of government initiat ives aimed at facilitating economic development, specifically the Multifunction Polis Feasibility Study involving the governments and business enterprises of Australia and Japan (1987-1991). Large scale projects that involve collaboration between gove rnment and business (termed: large scale collaborative venture LSCV)are identified as one aspect of competing in the new economy . The study pursued the research propos ition that a LSCV can be effectively facilitated by following a theory based process similar to those in corporate practice. An approach to managing such ventures is outlined, based on strategic marketing theory that may enhance their success and thereby help countries part icipate more successfully in global competition through such ventures.

Semi-active control for structural vibration based on predictive algorithm [Chinese title = 基于预测算法的结构振动半主动控制]

Based on Newmark-β method, a structural vibration response is predicted. Through finding the appropriate control force parameters within certain ranges to optimize the objective function, the predictive control of the structural vibration is achieved. At the same time, the numerical simulation analysis of a two-storey frame structure with magneto-rheological (MR) dampers under earthquake records is carried out, and the parameter influence on structural vibration reduction is discussed. The results demonstrate that the semi-active control based on Newmark-β predictive algorithm is better than the classical control strategy based on full-state feedback control and has remarkable advantages of structural vibration reduction and control robustness.