Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Treatment rationale study design for the MetLung trial : a randomized, double-blind phase III study of onartuzumab (MetMAb) in combination with erlotinib versus erlotinib alone in patients who have received standard chemotherapy for stage IIIB or IV met-positive non-small-cell lung cancer

We present the treatment rationale and study design of the MetLung phase III study. This study will investigate onartuzumab (MetMAb) in combination with erlotinib compared with erlotinib alone, as second- or third-line treatment, in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who are Met-positive by immunohistochemistry. Approximately 490 patients (245 per treatment arm) will receive erlotinib (150 mg oral daily) plus onartuzumab or placebo (15 mg/kg intravenous every 3 weeks) until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, patient or physician decision to discontinue, or death. The efficacy objectives of this study are to compare overall survival (OS) (primary endpoint), progression-free survival, and response rates between the 2 treatment arms. In addition, safety, quality of life, pharmacokinetics, and translational research will be investigated across treatment arms. If the primary objective (OS) is achieved, this study will provide robust results toward an alternative treatment option for patients with Met-positive second- or third-line NSCLC. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Semi-binary based video features for activity representation

Efficient and effective feature detection and representation is an important consideration when processing videos, and a large number of applications such as motion analysis, 3D scene understanding, tracking etc. depend on this. Amongst several feature description methods, local features are becoming increasingly popular for representing videos because of their simplicity and efficiency. While they achieve state-of-the-art performance with low computational complexity, their performance is still too limited for real world applications. Furthermore, rapid increases in the uptake of mobile devices has increased the demand for algorithms that can run with reduced memory and computational requirements. In this paper we propose a semi binary based feature detectordescriptor based on the BRISK detector, which can detect and represent videos with significantly reduced computational requirements, while achieving comparable performance to the state of the art spatio-temporal feature descriptors. First, the BRISK feature detector is applied on a frame by frame basis to detect interest points, then the detected key points are compared against consecutive frames for significant motion. Key points with significant motion are encoded with the BRISK descriptor in the spatial domain and Motion Boundary Histogram in the temporal domain. This descriptor is not only lightweight but also has lower memory requirements because of the binary nature of the BRISK descriptor, allowing the possibility of applications using hand held devices.We evaluate the combination of detectordescriptor performance in the context of action classification with a standard, popular bag-of-features with SVM framework. Experiments are carried out on two popular datasets with varying complexity and we demonstrate comparable performance with other descriptors with reduced computational complexity.

A comparative study of the semi-elastic and fully-elastic MapReduce models

MapReduce is a computation model for processing large data sets in parallel on large clusters of machines, in a reliable, fault-tolerant manner. A MapReduce computation is broken down into a number of map tasks and reduce tasks, which are performed by so called mappers and reducers, respectively. The placement of the mappers and reducers on the machines directly affects the performance and cost of the MapReduce computation in cloud computing. From the computational point of view, the mappers/reducers placement problem is a generation of the classical bin packing problem, which is NP-complete. Thus, in this paper we propose a new heuristic algorithm for the mappers/reducers placement problem in cloud computing and evaluate it by comparing with other several heuristics on solution quality and computation time by solving a set of test problems with various characteristics. The computational results show that our heuristic algorithm is much more efficient than the other heuristics and it can obtain a better solution in a reasonable time. Furthermore, we verify the effectiveness of our heuristic algorithm by comparing the mapper/reducer placement for a benchmark problem generated by our heuristic algorithm with a conventional mapper/reducer placement which puts a fixed number of mapper/reducer on each machine. The comparison results show that the computation using our mapper/reducer placement is much cheaper than the computation using the conventional placement while still satisfying the computation deadline.

Long-term azithromycin for Indigenous children with non-cystic-fibrosis bronchiectasis or chronic suppurative lung disease (Bronchiectasis Intervention Study) : a multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial

Background Indigenous children in high-income countries have a heavy burden of bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis. We aimed to establish whether long-term azithromycin reduced pulmonary exacerbations in Indigenous children with non-cystic-fibrosis bronchiectasis or chronic suppurative lung disease. Methods Between Nov 12, 2008, and Dec 23, 2010, we enrolled Indigenous Australian, Maori, and Pacific Island children aged 1—8 years with either bronchiectasis or chronic suppurative lung disease into a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial. Eligible children had had at least one pulmonary exacerbation in the previous 12 months. Children were randomised (1:1 ratio, by computer-generated sequence with permuted block design, stratified by study site and exacerbation frequency [1—2 vs ≥3 episodes in the preceding 12 months]) to receive either azithromycin (30 mg/kg) or placebo once a week for up to 24 months. Allocation concealment was achieved by double-sealed, opaque envelopes; participants, caregivers, and study personnel were masked to assignment until after data analysis. The primary outcome was exacerbation (respiratory episodes treated with antibiotics) rate. Analysis of the primary endpoint was by intention to treat. At enrolment and at their final clinic visits, children had deep nasal swabs collected, which we analysed for antibiotic-resistant bacteria. This study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry; ACTRN12610000383066. Findings 45 children were assigned to azithromycin and 44 to placebo. The study was stopped early for feasibility reasons on Dec 31, 2011, thus children received the intervention for 12—24 months. The mean treatment duration was 20·7 months (SD 5·7), with a total of 902 child-months in the azithromycin group and 875 child-months in the placebo group. Compared with the placebo group, children receiving azithromycin had significantly lower exacerbation rates (incidence rate ratio 0·50; 95% CI 0·35—0·71; p<0·0001). However, children in the azithromycin group developed significantly higher carriage of azithromycin-resistant bacteria (19 of 41, 46%) than those receiving placebo (four of 37, 11%; p=0·002). The most common adverse events were non-pulmonary infections (71 of 112 events in the azithromycin group vs 132 of 209 events in the placebo group) and bronchiectasis-related events (episodes or investigations; 22 of 112 events in the azithromycin group vs 48 of 209 events in the placebo group); however, study drugs were well tolerated with no serious adverse events being attributed to the intervention. Interpretation Once-weekly azithromycin for up to 24 months decreased pulmonary exacerbations in Indigenous children with non-cystic-fibrosis bronchiectasis or chronic suppurative lung disease. However, this strategy was also accompanied by increased carriage of azithromycin-resistant bacteria, the clinical consequences of which are uncertain, and will need careful monitoring and further study.

Discussion of : constructing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation

This is a discussion of the journal article: "Construcing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation". The article and discussion have appeared in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).

Reversible and blind database watermarking using difference expansion

There has been significant research in the field of database watermarking recently. However, there has not been sufficient attention given to the requirement of providing reversibility (the ability to revert back to original relation from watermarked relation) and blindness (not needing the original relation for detection purpose) at the same time. This model has several disadvantages over reversible and blind watermarking (requiring only the watermarked relation and secret key from which the watermark is detected and the original relation is restored) including the inability to identify the rightful owner in case of successful secondary watermarking, the inability to revert the relation to the original data set (required in high precision industries) and the requirement to store the unmarked relation at a secure secondary storage. To overcome these problems, we propose a watermarking scheme that is reversible as well as blind. We utilize difference expansion on integers to achieve reversibility. The major advantages provided by our scheme are reversibility to a high quality original data set, rightful owner identification, resistance against secondary watermarking attacks, and no need to store the original database at a secure secondary storage. We have implemented our scheme and results show the success rate is limited to 11% even when 48% tuples are modified.

Reversible and blind database watermarking using difference expansion

There has been significant research in the field of database watermarking recently. However, there has not been sufficient attention given to the requirement of providing reversibility (the ability to revert back to original relation from watermarked relation) and blindness (not needing the original relation for detection purpose) at the same time. This model has several disadvantages over reversible and blind watermarking (requiring only the watermarked relation and secret key from which the watermark is detected and the original relation is restored) including the inability to identify the rightful owner in case of successful secondary watermarking, the inability to revert the relation to the original data set (required in high precision industries) and the requirement to store the unmarked relation at a secure secondary storage. To overcome these problems, we propose a watermarking scheme that is reversible as well as blind. We utilize difference expansion on integers to achieve reversibility. The major advantages provided by our scheme are reversibility to a high quality original data set, rightful owner identification, resistance against secondary watermarking attacks, and no need to store the original database at a secure secondary storage. We have implemented our scheme and results show the success rate is limited to 11% even when 48% tuples are modified.

Blind steganalysis : a countermeasure for binary image steganography

In this paper, we propose a new blind steganalytic method to detect the presence of secret messages embedded in black and white images using the steganographic techniques. We start by extracting several sets of matrix, such as run length matrix, gap length matrix and pixel difference. We also apply characteristic function on these matrices to enhance their discriminative capabilities. Then we calculate the statistics which include mean, variance, kurtosis and skewness to form our feature sets. The presented empirical works demonstrate our proposed method can effectively detect three different types of steganography. This proves the universality of our proposed method as a blind steganalysis. In addition, the experimental results show our proposed method is capable of detecting small amount of the embedded message.

Can ginger ameliorate chemotherapy-induced nausea? Protocol of a randomized double blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Preliminary research shows ginger may be an effective adjuvant treatment for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting but significant limitations need to be addressed before recommendations for clinical practice can be made. Methods/Design In a double–blinded randomised-controlled trial, chemotherapy-naïve patients will be randomly allocated to receive either 1.2 g of a standardised ginger extract or placebo per day. The study medication will be administrated as an adjuvant treatment to standard anti-emetic therapy and will be divided into four capsules per day, to be consumed approximately every 4 hours (300 mg per capsule administered q.i.d) for five days during the first three cycles of chemotherapy. Acute, delayed, and anticipatory symptoms of nausea and vomiting will be assessed over this time frame using a valid and reliable questionnaire, with nausea symptoms being the primary outcome. Quality of life, nutritional status, adverse effects, patient adherence, cancer-related fatigue, and CINV-specific prognostic factors will also be assessed. Discussion Previous trials in this area have noted limitations. These include the inconsistent use of standardized ginger formulations and valid questionnaires, lack of control for anticipatory nausea and prognostic factors that may influence individual CINV response, and the use of suboptimal dosing regimens. This trial is the first to address these issues by incorporating multiple unique additions to the study design including controlling for CINV-specific prognostic factors by recruiting only chemotherapy-naïve patients, implementing a dosing schedule consistent with the pharmacokinetics of oral ginger supplements, and independently analysing ginger supplements before and after recruitment to ensure potency. Our trial will also be the first to assess the effect of ginger supplementation on cancer-related fatigue and nutritional status. Chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting are distressing symptoms experienced by oncology patients; this trial will address the significant limitations within the current literature and in doing so, will investigate the effect of ginger supplementation as an adjuvant treatment in modulating nausea and vomiting symptoms. Trial registration

Features-pooling blind jpeg image steganalysis

In this research, we introduce a new blind steganalysis in detecting grayscale JPEG images. Features-pooling method is employed to extract the steganalytic features and the classification is done by using neural network. Three different steganographic models are tested and classification results are compared to the five state-of-the-art blind steganalysis.

Reversible and blind database watermarking using difference expansion

Database watermarking has received significant research attention in the current decade. Although, almost all watermarking models have been either irreversible (the original relation cannot be restored from the watermarked relation) and/or non-blind (requiring original relation to detect the watermark in watermarked relation). This model has several disadvantages over reversible and blind watermarking (requiring only watermarked relation and secret key from which the watermark is detected and original relation is restored) including inability to identify rightful owner in case of successful secondary watermarking, inability to revert the relation to original data set (required in high precision industries) and requirement to store unmarked relation at a secure secondary storage. To overcome these problems, we propose a watermarking scheme that is reversible as well as blind. We utilize difference expansion on integers to achieve reversibility. The major advantages provided by our scheme are reversibility to high quality original data set, rightful owner identification, resistance against secondary watermarking attacks, and no need to store original database at a secure secondary storage.

Visible and near infrared spectroscopy of hayabusa reentry using semi-autonomous tracking

Aground-based tracking camera and coaligned slitless spectrograph were used to measure the spectral signature of visible radiation emitted from the Hayabusa capsule as it entered into the Earth’s atmosphere in June 2010. Good quality spectra were obtained, which showed the presence of radiation from the heat shield of the vehicle and the shock-heated air in front of the vehicle. An analysis of the blackbody nature of the radiation concluded that the peak average temperature of the surface was about (3100± 100)K. Line spectra from oxygen and nitrogen atoms were used to infer a peak average shock-heated gas temperature of around((7000±400))K.

Blind Collaboration

This paper examines the creation, development and implementation of an artistic process termed by the author ‘Blind Collaboration’. The process involves musicians collaborating on an album of contemporary music where they, the collaborators, do not see or hear each other nor record in the same studio at the same time as their fellow musicians. The notion of musicians recording separately or indeed remotely is not new, however what is new is the ‘blind’ aspect of the process. Each musician is completely unaware of any others’ contributions, and is therefore uninfluenced by what the others might play. None of the musicians hears the overall result until the final mix. The principal focus of this case study lies in the analysis of specific aspects and outcomes of the creative/artistic process - how it evolved, how it was managed, how it was influenced by the particular artists involved and how the Blind Collaboration process ultimately shaped the final musical work.

A natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin versus aqueous cream for managing radiation-induced skin reactions in patients with cancer : a phase III double-blind randomised controlled trial

Purpose To investigate the effects of a natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin versus aqueous cream for preventing and managing radiation induced skin reactions (RISR). Methods and Materials A total of 174 patients were randomised and participated in the study. Patients either received Cream 1 (the natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin) or Cream 2 (aqueous cream). Skin toxicity, pain, itching and skin-related quality of life scores were collected for up to four weeks after radiation treatment. Results Patients who received Cream 1 had a significantly lower average level of Common Toxicity Criteria at week 3 (p<0.05), but had statistically higher average levels of skin toxicity at weeks 7, 8 and 9 (all p<0.001). Similar results were observed when skin toxicity was analysed by grades. With regards to pain, patients in the Cream 2 group had a significantly higher average level of worst pain (p<0.05) and itching (p=0.046) compared to the Cream 1 group at week 3, however these differences were not observed at other weeks. In addition, there was a strong trend for Cream 2 to reduce the incidence of grade 2 or more skin toxicity in comparison to Cream 1 (p=0.056). Overall, more participants in the Cream 1 group were required to use another topical treatment at weeks 8 (p=0.049) and 9 (p=0.01). Conclusion The natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin appears to have similar effects for managing skin toxicity compared to aqueous cream up to week 5, however, it becomes significantly less effective at later weeks into the radiation treatment and beyond treatment completion (week 6 and beyond). There were no major differences in pain, itching and skin-related quality of life. In light of these results, clinicians and patients can base their decision on costs and preferences. Overall, aqueous cream appears to be a more preferred option.