Twentieth century secular decrease in the atmospheric potential gradient

Current flowing in the global atmospheric electrical circuit (AEC) substantially decreased during the twentieth century. Fair-weather potential gradient (PG) observations in Scotland and Shetland show a previously unreported annual decline from 1920 to 1980, when the measurements ceased. A 25% reduction in PG occurred in Scotland 1920–50, with the maximum decline during the winter months. This is quantitatively explained by a decrease in cosmic rays (CR) increasing the thunderstorm-electrosphere coupling resistance, reducing the ionospheric potential VI. Independent measurements of VI also suggest a reduction of 27% from 1920–50. The secular decrease will influence fair weather atmospheric electrical parameters, including ion concentrations and aerosol electrification. Between 1920–50, the PG showed a negative correlation with global temperature, despite the positive correlation found recently between surface temperature and VI. The 1980s stabilisation in VI may arise from compensation of the continuing CR-induced decline by increases in global temperature and convective electrification.

Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM

Secular trends of daily precipitation characteristics are considered in the transient climate change experiment with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM4/OPYC3 for 1900-2099. The climate forcing is due to increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mean daily precipitation, precipitation intensity, probability of wet days and parameters of the gamma distribution are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the changes of heavy precipitation, Analysis of the annual mean precipitation trends for 1900-1999 revealed general agreement with observations with significant positive trends in mean precipitation over continental areas. In the 2000-2099 period precipitation trend patterns followed the tendency obtained for 1900-1999 but with significantly increased magnitudes. Unlike the annual mean precipitation trends for which negative values were found for some continental areas, the mean precipitation intensity and scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution increased over all land territories . Negative trends in the number of wet days were found over most of the land areas except high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The shape parameter of the gamma distribution in general revealed a slight negative trend in the areas of the precipitation increase. Investigation of daily precipitation revealed an unproportional increase of heavy precipitation events for the land areas including local maxima in Europe and the eastern United States.

Modelling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

O processo de formulação do 2. Plano Diretor de Desenvolvimento Urbano Ambiental de Porto Alegre : ruptura, reunião de fragmentos, inovação ou manutenção de uma tradição secular?

O presente estudo descreve o processo de formulação do 2º Plano Diretor de Desenvolvimento Urbano Ambiental de Porto Alegre, mostrando de que maneira, através de conteúdo e método, foram se consolidando as idéias que definem “a cidade do desejo mediada pela cidade do possível”, considerando os discursos e as atividades desenvolvidas, desde o lançamento, em 1993, do Projeto Porto Alegre Mais-Cidade Constituinte, até a entrega à Câmara Municipal, da proposta de plano diretor formalizada pelo Executivo Municipal, em 1997, como resultado de um amplo trabalho participativo, que teve como desafio a construção, de forma compartilhada, de um projeto para o futuro da cidade. As conclusões apresentam através de aspectos selecionados, uma comparação entre o 1º Plano Diretor de Desenvolvimento Urbano, aprovado em 1979 e o novo plano, mostrando as principais diferenças - enfoque e linguagem - entre os discursos de uma e de outra proposta, considerando-se a “Noção de Projeto de Cidade” e a de “Aspectos de Gestão”. Da mesma maneira, respondem, de acordo com o referencial conceitual adotado, se o novo plano faz rupturas, reúne fragmentos, traz inovações ou repete a tradição do último século.

Crescimento econômico secular no Brasil, modelo de thirlwall e termos de troca

Explaining the Brazilian economic growth performance during the 20th is a challenging task to academics. As shown, Brazil had already experienced faster growth and recently it is far from such belle époque. Most explanation lies on conventional frameworks. This paper assesses the Thirlwall’s balance-of-payments constraint model to Brazilian economic growth in the period 1900-2005, highlighting the importance of the terms of trade. The results show, first, that the terms of trade are significant in the estimation of import demand function and change the income elasticity, especially in the first period of the sample (1900-1970), and, second, when the simplest Thirlwall’s model is controlled by terms of trade, it seems that such variable is important through export growth, which cause changes in economic performance.

Secular dynamics and family identification among highly inclined asteroids in the Euphrosyne region

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Possible effects of secular resonances in Phobos and Triton

Due to the tides, the orbits of Phobos and Triton are contracting. While their semi major axes are decreasing, several possibilities of secular resonances involving node, argument of the pericenter and mean motion of the Sun will take place. In the case of Mars, if the obliquity (epsilon), during the passage through some resonances, is not so small, very significant variations of the inclination will appear. In one case, capture is almost certain provided that epsilon greater than or equal to 20degrees. For Triton there are also similar situations, but capture seems to be not possible, mainly because in S-1 state, Triton's orbit is sufficiently inclined (far) with respect to the Neptune's equator. Following Chyba et al. (Astron. Astrophys. 219 (1989) 123), a simplified equation that gives the evolution of the inclination versus the semi major axis, is derived. The time needed for Triton crash onto Neptune is longer than that one obtained by these authors, but the main difference is due to the new data used here. In general, even in the case of non-capture passages, some significant jumps in inclination and in eccentricities are possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.