A crise financeira e a política monetária no Brasil

A crise financeira iniciada em 2007 gerou uma grande recessão nos Estados Unidos e abalou a economia global com consequências nefastas para o crescimento e a taxa de desemprego em vários países. Os principais Bancos Centrais do mundo passaram a dar maior importância para políticas que garantam a estabilidade financeira. É consensual a necessidade de avanços regulatórios e de medidas prudenciais capazes de reduzir os riscos financeiros, mas existem divergências quanto ao uso da taxa básica de juros, não só como um instrumento necessário para garantir a estabilidade de preços, como também para garantir a estabilidade financeira e evitar a formação de bolhas. O Brasil viveu nos últimos vinte anos um período de grande expansão do mercado de crédito, fruto das estabilidades econômica e financeira. O Banco Central do Brasil teve atuação exitosa durante a crise e demonstrou habilidade em utilizar instrumentos de política monetária e medidas macroprudenciais de forma complementar. Nos últimos quatro anos, as condições macroeconômicas se deterioraram e o Brasil atravessou um período de crescimento baixo, inflação próxima ao teto da meta e aumento do endividamento. Enquanto as políticas macroprudenciais foram capazes de evitar a formação de bolhas, as políticas fiscal e monetária foram demasiadamente expansionistas. Neste período houve um enfraquecimento na função-reação do Banco Central, que deixou de respeitar o princípio de Taylor.

Mobilidade em potência e discurso publicitário na sociedade contemporânea globalizada: Brasil, 1982-2014

No mundo, hoje, tudo está em movimento. Pessoas, objetos, valores, informação e imagens circulam cada dia mais intensa e extensamente em um ambiente social fluido, em rede e de riscos. Quando a mobilidade torna-se parte importante da experiência cotidiana e os deslocamentos físicos, geográficos, virtuais ou imaginativos tomam a frente nas relações e alteram radicalmente os modos de vida em todas as esferas - social, cultural, política e econômica -, nesse momento uma cultura da mobilidade se impõe e envolve a todos em novas possibilidades e experiências, assim como, em novos constrangimentos, riscos e discursos que devem ser estudados. O cada dia mais intenso imbricamento entre a cultura da mobilidade e o discurso publicitário constitui a base que sustenta a tese e que delineia as duas premissas fundamentais do estudo: a primeira, de que as coisas do mundo chegam até o sujeito apesar de sua imobilidade, por meio dos objetos, das informações e das imagens que circulam globalmente; e, a segunda premissa, de que a despeito de seu caráter comercial, persuasivo e de vendas, a publicidade também pode ser encarada como um bem cultural que expressa a cultura da qual faz parte. É na articulação destas duas premissas que reside o interesse primordial e o objeto de estudo da pesquisa: ao considerar o fazer publicitário como representação da sociedade, investigar, a partir da perspectiva do Paradigma das Novas Mobilidades, como o movimento é expresso discursivamente na publicidade das marcas globais. A interpretação do discurso publicitário global teve como objetivo validar a hipótese de que há um consumo de (i)mobilidade sendo feito quando o indivíduo sai em busca de objetos que, a partir de sua disponibilidade (ready-to-handness) e potencial de uso em relação ao ambiente (affordance), suportem sua (i)mobilidade cotidiana com certa estabilidade e menor risco. O locus da investigação é o Brasil e o estudo focou sua análise nos 32 anos relativos ao período de 1982 a 2014. Foram selecionados anúncios de marcas veiculados na revista Veja durante o período de três Copas do Mundo FIFA: de 1982, na Espanha; de 1998, na França; e de 2014, no Brasil, que cobrem o período proposto pela pesquisa.

Uma análise descritiva do índice de desemprego no Brasil

Em meio a um cenário de desaceleração do PIB e às incertezas sobre a inflação seria esperado que a taxa de desemprego aumentasse. Contudo, o mercado de trabalho apresentou resultados bastante satisfatórios nos últimos anos. Segundo dados do IBGE, no triênio 2011-2013, esse índice permaneceu, com uma certa “estabilidade”, no patamar de 6%. Ademais, é possível encontrar diferentes índices a partir de diversas fontes disponíveis para o mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Neste contexto, o presente estudo busca destacar as principais diferenças e semelhanças de cada uma das fontes de informação e avaliar a redução da taxa de desemprego ocorrida ao longo de mais de 10 anos. Para tanto, serão utilizadas as bases de dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios de 2001 a 2013 a fim de analisar como se comporta a taxa de desemprego para os diferentes grupos componentes da força de trabalho. Os resultados indicam que os fatores populacionais foram mais importantes que os fatores econômicos, visto que a mudança na composição de faixa etária da PEA foi responsável por 25% da queda da taxa de desemprego de 2005/2006 para 2012/2013.

Os impactos da MP 579, convertida na lei 12.783, nos investimentos em geração de energia do Brasil

O ano de 2012 foi um marco para o setor elétrico brasileiro. Foi um ano de muitas surpresas, debates e mudanças de paradigmas. Um setor tido anteriormente como exemplo de estabilidade e conservadorismo, passou a ser alvo de dúvidas e críticas por parte de diferentes agentes, investidores, operadores, consumidores e governantes. As bases regulatórias do setor elétrico brasileiro são muito recentes. Entretanto é notável que houve um progresso nas últimas décadas, em direção a um melhor serviço prestado à população e ao desenvolvimento de um ambiente propício ao investimento. Ambos os objetivos foram acompanhados de uma maior preocupação com o atendimento da demanda por energia, crescente no país, e com a busca por tarifas baixas de forma a não haver impactos inflacionários. Desviando desta trajetória, a edição da MP 579 em setembro de 2012 levou a um clima de insegurança para novos investimentos devido à falta de clareza a cerca de muitas regras sancionadas, consequencia do insuficiente debate com o setor privado. A MP teve como ambição diminuir a tarifa de energia paga pelo consumidor final, e usou como principal mecanismo a não renovação das concessões de geração de energia, possibilidade prevista nos contratos de concessão de cada usina de geração de energia. Esta tese faz uma análise do setor de geração energia do Brasil. Nela é estudada a matriz energética, aspectos do modelo regulatório adotado, sua evolução nas últimas décadas, e a motivação para a sanção da MP. O objetivo central é estudar seu impacto nos investimentos no setor.

Por que James Bond, o engenheiro, desistiu do Brasil

Após oito anos e meio, James Arthur Bond, de 48 anos, a contragosto, foi levado de volta às origens. A crise tirou-o do Rio de Janeiro, terra que escolheu para viver com a família, forçando-o a buscar estabilidade em solo britânico.

Reflexão sobre a participação de partidos políticos da base do governo nos ministérios, a estabilidade política e a eficacidade das políticas públicas no país

Reflexão sobre a participação de partidos políticos da base do governo nos ministérios, a estabilidade política e a eficacidade das políticas públicas no país.

A intervenção estatal sobre o mercado bancário no Brasil por meio dos bancos públicos: a tentativa de redução dos spreads em 2012

As taxas de juros cobradas pelos bancos têm sido alvo constante de críticas por parte da opinião pública e de preocupação por parte do governo. Uma das razões para essas altas taxas, além do nível elevado da taxa básica de juros SELIC, são os altos spreads cobrados pelos bancos. Uma das formas para tentar diminuir esse nível é aumentar a competitividade entre os bancos. Entretanto, uma suposta dificuldade para se atingir um maior nível de competição é o grau de concentração bancária existente hoje no Brasil. Nesse sentido, o governo brasileiro pressionou o mercado bancário para reduzir seus spreads e taxas durante o primeiro semestre de 2012, um período de aparente estabilidade macroeconômica e de forte queda da taxa SELIC. A pressão exercida pelo governo surtiu efeito, inicialmente sobre os bancos públicos, e, posteriormente, sobre os bancos privados, que anunciaram publicamente a redução de taxas para diversas operações. Este trabalho buscou entender as dimensões e origens dos efeitos desse posicionamento do governo sobre os spreads e a rentabilidade dos maiores bancos brasileiros. Como resultado, observou-se a efetividade da atuação governamental na redução do spread ex post, da rentabilidade das operações de crédito (proxy da taxa) e da rentabilidade geral dos bancos públicos e privados. Apesar disso, houve recuo por parte dos bancos privados na concessão de crédito apontando para o poder de mercado dessas instituições e levantando dúvidas sobre a real capacidade da utilização dos bancos públicos para fomentar maior competitividade em um ambiente de incerteza econômica.

Atuação do estado como empregador de última instância: uma proposta para eliminar o desemprego estrutural do Brasil

GOMES, Z. B. ; LOURENÇO, André Luís Cabral de . Atuação do estado como empregador de última instância: uma proposta para eliminar o desemprego estrutural do Brasil. In: Encontro Nacional de Economia Política,13., 2008, João Pessoa/PB. Anais... João Pessoa, 2008.

Precificação de energia eólica offshore no Brasil

Offshore wind power emits low amounts of gases, is renewable and has better performance than onshore due to its greater stability and higher wind power density, less visual and noise impact, among others. Brazil has a high capacity of generation, but has not yet developed any offshore projects. High costs are a strong impediment. This study is an effort towards pricing offshore resources through Livelized Cost of Energy - LCOE, which represents the minimum return to cover the costs of development, production and maintenance of a wind project. Initially LCOE was calculated for all Brazilian onshore wind farms listed at Bloomberg New Energy Finance R○, accounting for 71 farms. Then hypothetical offshore wind farms were created from the onshore farms, tripling the cost of generation, which is consistent with the literature, and estimating the offshore energy for two locations off the Brazilian coast using satellite data extracted from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The results demonstrate that offshore resources have the potential to significantly reduce the energy price due to the better performance of the wind at sea

Comportamento social de botos-cinza, sotalia guianensis, na praia de Pipa, RN, Brasil: dinâmica, sequência, sincronia e respostas ao turismo de observação

Social behavior of Guiana dolphins, Sotalia guianensis, at Pipa Beach, RN, Brazil: dynamics, sequence, breathing synchrony, and responses to dolphin watching. Social animals form groups that can range from temporary to permanent. Depending on the nature of the social relationships developed between individuals, groups present a particular social organization and the effect of these interactions shapes the activity patterns of these animals. This study investigates: (i) fission-fusion dynamics of Guiana dolphins, through the analysis of three dimensions of the social system (variation in spatial cohesion, variation in size and composition of groups), (ii) sequence, routine and behavioral stability, (iii) breathing intervals in synchronized groups and (iv) behavioral responses of the animals to dolphin watching. Systematic observations of Guiana dolphins were made from a platform located in cliffs about 25 m above sea level that surround Madeiro Bay, Pipa Beach. Sampling occurred from December 2007 to February 2009 between 0600 h and 1600 h, and the groups of Guiana dolphins were investigated according to their size (alone and group) and composition (adults, adults and juveniles, and adults and calves). According to the analysis of fission-fusion dynamics, Guiana dolphin groups frequently changed their composition, modifying their patterns of spatial grouping and cohesion every 20 minutes on average. More than 50% of the individuals maintained a distance of up to 2 m from other group members and new individuals were attracted to the group, especially during feeding, leaving it for foraging. Large groups were more unstable than small, while groups containing only adults were more stable than groups of adults and juveniles. According to the Z-score analysis to investigate the sequence and behavioral routine, lone individuals were more ! .7! ! involved in foraging and feeding, while resting was more common in groups. Foraging and feeding were more common in homogeneous groups (individuals of the same age class), while heterogeneous groups (different age classes) were often involved in socialization, displaying a broader behavioral repertoire. Foraging and resting behavior presented higher stability (continuous duration in minutes) than the other behaviors. The analysis of breathing intervals in synchronized groups showed significant differences depending on type of behavior, composition and area preference. During resting, breathing intervals were of longer duration, and groups with calves showed shorter breathing intervals than groups without calves. Lone individuals also preferred areas called corral , often used for the entrapment of fishes. The Markov chain analysis revealed behavioral changes in the presence of boats, according to the type of group composition. Groups composed of adults presented decreased resting and increased in traveling during the presence of boats. Groups of adults and juveniles showed a massive reduction of socialization, while the behavior transition probability traveling-traveling was higher in groups of adults and calves. In the presence of the boats, stability of resting was reduced by one third of its original duration and traveling more than doubled. The behavioral patterns analyzed are discussed in light of socio-ecological models concerning costs and benefits of proximity between individuals and behavioral optimization. Furthermore, significant changes in behavioral patterns indicate that Guiana dolphins, at Pipa Beach, have suffered the effects of tourism as a result of violation of rules of conduct established for the study area

Estudo das propriedades psicométricas do inventário de estilos parentais de young no Brasil

Parenting styles concern overall interaction characteristics between parents and children. To assess them, it is important to build and adapt valid and reliable instruments. The main objectives of this dissertation were to translate, adapt and evaluate the psychometric properties of the Young Parenting Inventory (YPI) for the Brazilian context, as seek associations between the YPI and Familiogram Test (FG). In current study, YPI was adapted to Portuguese by backtranslation method. Content analyses were made by five judges. 920 high school and college students (543 females), whose ages were between 14 and 69 years (M = 21.3, SD = 6.1), filled out the research instruments. Data were collected in Natal, Petrolina and Brasilia cities and Porto Alegre metropolitan region. The results confirmed the existence of five factors. Final version of the YPI was composed by 49 items. Exploratory factorial analysis (principal components) were conducted using oblimin rotation. Five factors extracted explained 45.12% of the maternal scale variance and 47.59% of paternal scale. Each factor explained, at least, 3% of the variance and showed Eigenvalue over than 1.5. All items have factorial loadings values above 0.3. The confirmatory factorial analysis has showed fit statistics reasonably adequate: for maternal scale,  ² [1114] = 4636.38, p < 0.001,  ² / df = 4.16, with GFI = 0.83, AGFI = 0.81 and RMSEA = 0.06; for paternal scale,  ² [1114] = 5133.69 p < 0.001,  ² / df = 4.61, with GFI = 0.81, AGFI = 0.79 and RMSEA = 0,06. Thus, final instrument was composed by the following factors: (I) Disconnection and Rejection ( = 0.89 and 0.90), (II) Affectivity and Emotional Stability ( = 0.85 and 0.88); (III) Overvigilance and Other Directedness ( = 0.83 and 0.85), (IV) Overprotection and Impaired Autonomy ( = 0.78 and 0.79) and (V) Impaired Limits ( = 0.66 and 0.71). Finally, relations between the YPI and FG were assessed. Pearson's correlations between the YPI and FG showed moderated associations, particularly between the factors Affectivity (YPI) and Affection (FG) (r = 0.69 and 0.7 for maternal and paternal scale, respectively); and the factors Disconnection and Rejection (YPI) and Conflict (FG) (r = 0.59 and 0.58). The regression models indicated that over than 40% of variance of factors of FG can be predicted by factors of YPI. Beta coefficients for Affection-Affectivity relation were 0.67 (maternal scale) and 0.53 (paternal scale); for Disconnection-Conflict relation were 0.31 (maternal scale) and 0.44 (paternal scale). We conclude the YPI has adequate psychometric parameters and can be used in future research in this area. However, adjustments in the structure of the YPI were made. Moreover, it is suggested further studies to consider other samples and variables, increasing the knowing of parenting styles and the Young‟s theory in the Brazilian context

Avaliação da estabilidade térmica e oxidativa dos biodieseis de algodão, girassol, dendê e sebo bovino

The search for new sources of environmentally friendly energy is growing every day. Among these alternative energies, biodiesel is a biofuel that has had prominence in world production. In Brazil, law 11.097, determine that all diesel sold in the country must be made by mixing diesel/biodiesel. The latter called BX, , where X represents the percent volume of biodiesel in the diesel oil, as specified by the ANP. In order to guarantee the quality of biodiesel and its mixtures, the main properties which should be controlled are the thermal and oxidative stability. These properties depend mainly of the chemical composition on the raw materials used to prepare the biodiesel. This dissertation aims to study the overall thermal and oxidative stability of biodiesel derived from cotton seed oil, sunflower oil, palm oil and beef tallow, as well as analyze the properties of the blends made from mineral oil and biodiesel in proportion B10. The main physical-chemical properties of oils and animal fat, their respective B100 and blends were determined. The samples were characterized by infrared and gas chromatography (GC). The study of thermal and oxidative stability were performed by thermogravimetry (TG), pressure differential scanning calorimeter (PDSC) and Rancimat. The obtained biodiesel samples are within the specifications established by ANP Resolution number 7/2008. In addition, all the blends and mineral diesel analyzed presented in conformed withthe ANP Regularion specifications number 15/2006. The obtained results from TG curves data indicated that the cotton biodiesel is the more stable combustible. In the kinetic study, we obtained the following order of apparent activation energy for the samples: biodiesel from palm oil > sunflower biodiesel > tallow biodiesel > cotton biodiesel. In terms of the oxidative stability, the two methods studied showed that biodiesel from palm oil is more stable then the tallow. Within the B100 samples studied only the latter were tound to be within the standard required by ANP resolution N° 7. Testing was carried out according to the EN14112. This higher stability its chemical composition

Macrofauna de ambientes não consolidados adjacentes à recifes da área de proteção ambiental dos recifes de corais Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

This study aimed to characterize, for the first time, the benthic invertebrates that inhabit the region of soft bottoms adjacent to the APARC reefs in order to situate them as an important component of infralittoral coastal areas of Northeast Brazil. Soft bottoms areas of APARC corresponds to infralittoral zones vegetated by seagrass Halodule wrightii and unvegetated infralittoral zones, both subjected to substantial hydrodynamic stress. Through scuba diving, biological and sedimentary samples of both habitats were analyzed, with a cylindrical sampler. We identified 6160 individuals belonging to 16 groups and 224 species. The most abundant macrofaunal group was Polychaeta (43%), followed by Mollusca (25%) and Crustacea (14%), what was expected for these environments. In the first chapter, regarding vegetated areas, we tested three hypotheses: the existence of differences in the faunal structure associated with H. wrightii banks submitted to different hydrodynamic conditions; the occurrence of minor temporal variations on the associated macrofauna of banks protected from hydrodynamic stress; and if the diversity of macrofauna is affected by both benthophagous predators and H. wrightii biomass. It was observed that macrofauna associated at the Exposed bank showed differences in structure when comparing the Protected bank, the granulometry of the sediments, that co-varies with the hydrodynamism, was the cause of these variations. The results also pointed to a lower temporal variation in the macrofaunal structure on the Protected bank and a negative relation between macrofaunal and benthophagous fish abundance. At the Exposed bank, a greater faunal diversity was observed, probably due to the higher seagrass biomass. The second chapter compares the vegetated and non-vegetated areas in order to test the hypothesis that due to greater seasonal stability in tropical environments, seagrass structure would act to distinguish the vegetated and non-vegetated areas macrofauna, over time. It was also expected that depositivores were the most representative invertebrates on non-vegetated environments, on the assumption that the seagrass bank would work as a source of debris to adjacent areas, enriching them. Considering all sampling periods, the total macrofauna abundance and diversity were higher in vegetated areas, when compared to non-vegetated ones. Seasonally, the structural complexity provided by Halodule differentiated more clearly the fauna from vegetated and non-vegetated areas, but only at the climatic extremes, i.e. Dry season (extreme climatic stability, with low hydronamism variation) and Rainy season (great hydrodynamism variation and probably vegetated bank burial). Furthermore, the high organic matter levels measured in the sandy banks coincided with an outstanding trophic importance of deposit feeders, proving the debris-carrying hypothesis. The last chapter focused on the non-vegetated areas, where we tested that the hypothesis infaunal halo in tropical reefs depending on local granulometry. In this context, we also tested the hypothesis that benthophagous fish predation would have an effect on the low abundance of macrofaunal groups due to the high hydrographic stress, thus allowing other predatory groups to have greater importance in these environments. Proving the hypothesis, no spatial variation, both on abundance families neither on community structure, occur along distance of the edge reefs. However, we found that complex combinations of physical factors (grain size and organic matter levels originated from local hydronamic conditions) covary with the distance from the reefs and has stronger influence on macrofauna than considered biological factors, such as predation by benthophagous fishes. Based on the main results, this study shows that unconsolidated areas around APARC reefs are noteworthy from an ecological and conservational point of view, as evidenced by the biota-environment and organismal relations, never before described for these areas

Diagênese e proveniência dos arenitos da tectonossequência Rifte na bacias do Rio do Peixe Araripe, NE do Brasil

This thesis presents diagenetic and provenance studies of sandstones belonging to the Rift Tectonosequence of the Rio do Peixe and Araripe basins. These basins are located in the interior of Northeast Brazil aligned along the Trend-Cariri Potiguar. Their origin is related to the Early Cretaceous rifting event. In terms of lithostratigraphy, the studied section corresponds to the Antenor Navarro, Sousa and Rio Piranhas formations of the Rio do Peixe Basin, and the Missão Velha and Abaiara formations of the Araripe Basin, outcropping in the central-west Cariri Valley. A facies analysis was performed and identified nine distinct sedimentary facies for the Rio de Peixe Basin and ten sedimentary facies for the Araripe Basin, individualized according to the different rock types and their sedimentary structures. These facies associations to led paleoenvironments interpretations and their vertical succession allowed understanding the evolution of the depositional setting during the cronostratigraphic interval studied in these basins. Based on petrographic and diagenetic studies it was possible to characterize the texture and mineralogy of these sandstones, identifying their diagenetic stage and the grain framework provenance. The petrographic study allowed to classify the lithotypes studied in both basins as quartzarenites. Such quartzarenites, in general, are rich in quartz, feldspar and lithic fragment grains, and at accessory levels tourmaline, sphene, zircon, epidote and other mineralogy. The diagenetic history of the studied rocks proved to be very complex, being characterized by a variety mineral of phases that succeeded each other during the eo, meso and telodiagenetic stages. According to the studied formation and the textural and compositional aspects of the rocks, some processes were more or less active, while others were even absent. The eodiagenetic stage is marked by mechanical infiltration of clays and early mechanical compactional processes. The mesodiagenetic phase is characterized by continuity of the mechanical compaction and the beggining of chemical compaction, with quartz and feldspar overgrowths, precipitation of kaolinite, alteration of framework grains to chlorite and illite, and finally, precipitation of opaque minerals. The telodiagenetic stage is represented by the oxidation of some grains, matrix and cements. For the provenance analysis of the studied sandstones were used ternary diagrams whose vertices correspond to the percentage of quartz, feldspar and lithic fragments. This study allowed identifies the source area of these rocks as continental blocks. It was also possible, based on the chemical stability and mineralogical maturity of the rocks, recognize that the Antenor Navarro Formation of the Rio do Peixe Basin, and the upper section of the Missão Velha Formation of Araripe Basin have less maturity and stability when compared with the other studied formations