Compositional Effects of Sea-Level Rise in a Patchy Landscape: The Dynamics of Tree Islands in the Southeastern Coastal Everglades

The landscape structure of emergent wetlands in undeveloped portions of the southeastern coastal Everglades is comprised of two distinct components: scattered forest fragments, or tree islands, surrounded by a low matrix of marsh or shrub-dominated vegetation. Changes in the matrix, including the inland transgression of salt-tolerant mangroves and the recession of sawgrass marshes, have been attributed to the combination of sea level rise and reductions in fresh water supply. In this study we examined concurrent changes in the composition of the region’s tree islands over a period of almost three decades. No trend in species composition toward more salt-tolerant trees was observed anywhere, but species characteristic of freshwater swamps increased in forests in which fresh water supply was augmented. Tree islands in the coastal Everglades appear to be buffered from some of the short term effects of salt water intrusion, due to their ability to build soils above the surface of the surrounding wetlands, thus maintaining mesophytic conditions. However, the apparent resistance of tree islands to changes associated with sea level rise is likely to be a temporary stage, as continued salt water intrusion will eventually overwhelm the forests’ capacity to maintain fresh water in the rooting zone.

Relative sea-level history of Marguerite Bay, Antarctic Peninsula derived from optically stimulated luminescence-dated beach cobbles

Calmette Bay within Marguerite Bay along the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula contains one of the most continuous flights of raised beaches described to date in Antarctica. Raised beaches extend to 40.8 m above sea level (masl) and are thought to reflect glacial isostatic adjustment due to the retreat of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet. Using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), we dated quartz extracts from cobble surfaces buried in raised beaches at Calmette Bay. The beaches are separated into upper and lower beaches based on OSL ages, geomorphology, and sedimentary fabric. The two sets of beaches are separated by a prominent scarp. One of our OSL ages from the upper beaches dates to 9.3 thousand years ago (ka; as of 1950) consistent with previous extrapolation of sea-level data and the time of ice retreat from inner Marguerite Bay. However, four of the seven ages from the upper beaches date to the timing of glaciation. We interpret these ages to represent reworking of beaches deposited prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) by advancing and retreating LGM ice. Ages from the lower beaches record relative sea-level fall due to Holocene glacial-isostatic adjustment. We suggest a Holocene marine limit of 21.7 masl with an age of 5.5-7.3 ka based on OSL ages from Calmette Bay and other sea-level constraints in the area. A marine limit at 21.7 masl implies half as much relative sea-level change in Marguerite Bay during the Holocene as suggested by previous sea-level reconstructions. No evidence for a relative sea-level signature of neoglacial events, such as a decrease followed by an increase in RSL fall due to ice advance and retreat associated with the Little Ice Age, is found within Marguerite Bay indicating either: (1) no significant neoglacial advances occurred within Marguerite Bay; (2) rheological heterogeneity allows part of the Antarctic Peninsula (i.e. the South Shetland Islands) to respond to rapid ice mass changes while other regions are incapable of responding to short-lived ice advances; or (3) the magnitude of neoglacial events within Marguerite Bay is too small to resolve through relative sea-level reconstructions. Although the application of reconstructing sea-level histories using OSL-dated raised beach deposits provides a better understanding of the timing and nature of relative sea-level change in Marguerite Bay, we highlight possible problems associated with using raised beaches as sea-level indices due to post-depositional reworking by storm waves.

A 5 million year reconstruction of sea level, temperature, and sea water d18O

Marine sediment records from the Oligocene and Miocene reveal clear 400,000-year (400-kyr) climate cycles related to variations in orbital eccentricity. These cycles are also observed in the Plio-Pleistocene records of the global carbon cycle. However they are absent in the Late Pleistocene ice-age record over the past 1.5 million years. Here, we present a simulation of global ice volume over the past 5 million years with a coupled system of four 3-D ice-sheet models. Our simulation shows that the 400-kyr long eccentricity cycles of Antarctica vary coherently with d13C records during the Pleistocene suggesting that they drive the long-term carbon cycle changes throughout the past 35 million years. The 400-kyr response of Antarctica is eventually suppressed by the dominant 100-kyr glacial cycles of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere (NH).

Barrier Island Response to Sea Level Rise in North Carolina

The state of North Carolina is home to some of the most spectacular barrier islands in the world. These features are constantly shifting, impacted by waves, tides, and wind. Studies of the Outer Banks, North Carolina have resulted in varied results, but a detailed analysis of the barrier system as a whole is lacking. Using historic topographic surveys (T-sheets) from the 19th, the positions of various barrier segments were analyzed in relation to modern imagery. Changes in area, width, and center line locations were evaluated over the past 150 years. In total, 74 percent of modern transects have decreased in area. Total reductions in size were 130 km2 for the study period. Mean centerlines as a function of migration showed that 53 percent of segments were demonstrating directional movement away from the ocean. The average movement towards the bay between modern and historic centerlines was 8 meters. Thusly, barrier islands in North Carolina are demonstrating both decreases in total area and directional movement inland in response to sea level rise.

Evidence for carbonate platform failure during rapid sea-level rise; ca 14 000 year old bioclastic flow deposits in the Lesser Antilles

Bioclastic flow deposits offshore from the Soufrie`re Hills volcano on Montserrat in the Lesser Antilles were deposited by the largest volume sediment flows near this active volcano in the last 26 kyr. The volume of these deposits exceeds that of the largest historic volcanic dome collapse in the world, which occurred on Montserrat in 2003. These flows were most probably generated by a large submarine slope failure of the carbonate shelf comprising the south west flank of Antigua or the east flank of Redonda; adjacent islands that are not volcanically active. The bioclastic flow deposits are relatively coarse-grained and either ungraded or poorly graded, and were deposited by non cohesive debris flow and high density turbidity currents. The bioclastic deposit often comprises multiple sub-units that cannot be correlated between core sites; some located just 2 km apart. Multiple sub-units in the bioclastic deposit result from either flow reflection, stacking of multiple debris flow lobes, and/or multi-stage collapse of the initial landslide. This study provides unusually precise constraints on the age of this mass flow event that occurred at ca 14 ka. Few large submarine landslides have been well dated, but the slope failures that have been dated are commonly associated with periods of rapid sea-level change.

Mid-Holocene sea-level and coral reef demise : U-Th dating of subfossil corals in Moreton Bay, Australia

It is increasingly apparent that sea-level data (e.g. microfossil transfer functions, dated coral microatolls and direct observations from satellite and tidal gauges) vary temporally and spatially at regional to local scales, thus limiting our ability to model future sea-level rise for many regions. Understanding sealevel response at ‘far-field’ locations at regional scales is fundamental for formulating more relevant sea-level rise susceptibility models within these regions under future global change projections. Fossil corals and reefs in particular are valuable tools for reconstructing past sea levels and possible environmental phase shifts beyond the temporal constraints of instrumental records. This study used abundant surface geochronological data based on in situ subfossil corals and precise elevation surveys to determine previous sea level in Moreton Bay, eastern Australia, a far-field site. A total of 64 U-Th dates show that relative sea level was at least 1.1 m above modern lowest astronomical tide (LAT) from at least ˜6600 cal. yr BP. Furthermore, a rapid synchronous demise in coral reef growth occurred in Moreton Bay ˜5800 cal. yr BP, coinciding with reported reef hiatus periods in other areas around the Indo-Pacific region. Evaluating past reef growth patterns and phases allows for a better interpretation of anthropogenic forcing versus natural environmental/climatic cycles that effect reef formation and demise at all scales and may allow better prediction of reef response to future global change.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Investigating sea level rise due to global warming in the teaching laboratory using Archimedes’ principle

A teaching laboratory experiment is described that uses Archimedes’ principle to precisely investigate the effect of global warming on the oceans. A large component of sea level rise is due to the increase in the volume of water due to the decrease in water density with increasing temperature. Water close to 0 °C is placed in a beaker and a glass marble hung from an electronic balance immersed in the water. As the water warms, the weight of the marble increases as the water is less buoyant due to the decrease in density. In the experiment performed in this paper a balance with a precision of 0.1 mg was used with a marble 40.0 cm3 and mass of 99.3 g, yielding water density measurements with an average error of -0.008 ± 0.011%.

Quasi-periodic, global oscillations in sea level pressure on intraseasonal timescales

The sea level pressure (SLP) variability in 30-60 day intraseasonal timescales is investigated using 25 years of reanalysis data addressing two issues. The first concerns the non-zero zonal mean component of SLP near the equator and its meridional connections, and the second concerns the fast eastward propagation (EP) speed of SLP compared to that of zonal wind. It is shown that the entire globe resonates with high amplitude wave activity during some periods which may last for few to several months, followed by lull periods of varying duration. SLP variations in the tropical belt are highly coherent from 25A degrees S to 25A degrees N, uncorrelated with variations in mid latitudes and again significantly correlated but with opposite phase around 60A degrees S and 65A degrees N. Near the equator (8A degrees S-8A degrees N), the zonal mean contributes significantly to the total variance in SLP, and after its removal, SLP shows a dominant zonal wavenumber one structure having a periodicity of 40 days and EP speeds comparable to that of zonal winds in the Indian Ocean. SLP from many of the atmospheric and coupled general circulation models show similar behaviour in the meridional direction although their propagation characteristics in the tropical belt differ widely.

Signatures of Indian ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal

We investigate the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean during 1957-2008. Using tide-gauge and altimeter data, we show that IOD and ENSO leave characteristic signatures in the sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the Bay of Bengal. During a positive IOD event, negative SLAs are observed during April-December, with the SLAs decreasing continuously to a peak during September-November. During El Nino, negative SLAs are observed twice (April-December and November-July), with a relaxation between the two peaks. SLA signatures during negative IOD and La Nina events are much weaker. We use a linear, continuously stratified model of the Indian Ocean to simulate their sea level patterns of IOD and ENSO events. We then separate solutions into parts that correspond to specific processes: coastal alongshore winds, remote forcing from the equator via reflected Rossby waves, and direct forcing by interior winds within the bay. During pure IOD events, the SLAs are forced both from the equator and by direct wind forcing. During ENSO events, they are primarily equatorially forced, with only a minor contribution from direct wind forcing. Using a lead/lag covariance analysis between the Nino-3.4 SST index and Indian Ocean wind stress, we derive a composite wind field for a typical El Nino event: the resulting solution has two negative SLA peaks. The IOD and ENSO signatures are not evident off the west coast of India.

Parametric Studies on Saltwater Intrusion into Coastal Aquifers for Anticipate Sea Level Rise

Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers is a global issue, exacerbated by increasing demands for freshwater in coastal regions. This study investigates into the parametric analysis on saltwater intrusion in a conceptual, coastal, unconfined aquifer considering wide range of freshwater draft and anticipated sea level rise. The saltwater intrusion under various circumstances is simulated through parametric studies using MODFLOW, MT3DMS and SEAWAT. The MODFLOW is used to simulate the groundwater flow system under changing hydro-dynamics in coastal aquifer. To simulate solute transport MT3DMS and SEAWAT is used. The saltwater intrusion process has direct bearing on hydraulic conductivity and inversely related to porosity. It may also be noted that increase in recharge rate considered in the study does not have much influence on saltwater intrusion. Effect of freshwater draft at locations beyond half of the width of the aquifer considered has marginal effect and hence can be considered as safe zone for freshwater withdrawals. Due to the climate change effect, the anticipated rise in sea level of 0.88 m over a century is considered in the investigation. This causes increase in salinity intrusion by about 25%. The combined effect of sea level rise and freshwater draft (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.