The debt, the stock market and the state-owned enterprises. The sources of chaos on the Chinese financial markets. OSW Commentary NUMBER 201/16.03.2016

The government’s extensive programme for stimulating the economy has enabled China to maintain high economic growth after the global financial crisis in 2008. However, this success has come at the price of a number of negative economic phenomena and the consequences they have had are the major challenge for the government today. The vast programme of investments in infrastructure, construction and fixed assets, which has been the main source of economic growth over the past few years, has caused a rapid increase in China’s debt from 158% of GDP in 2007 to 282% in 2014. Along with the local governments in charge of implementing the programme, the Chinese sector of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been heavily burdened by the stimulation policy. The sector’s profitability has fallen, its indebtedness has increased and management problems have been revealed.

Men of chaos,

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Saints of chaos

--Harbingers of change.-- Martin Luther.-- Galileo Galilei.--Ludwig van Beethoven.-- James Watt.-- Thomas Hobbes.-- The new unity.

Spreading and synchronization of intrinsic signals in visual cortex of macaque monkey evoked by a localized visual stimulus

Spatio-temporal maps of the occipital cortex of macaque monkeys were analyzed using optical imaging of intrinsic signals. The images obtained during localized visual stimulation (IS) were compared with the images obtained on presentation of a blank screen (IB). We first investigated spontaneous variations of the intrinsic signals by analyzing the 100 IBs for each of the three cortical areas. Slow periodical activation was observed in alternation over the cortical areas. Cross-correlation analysis indicated that synchronization of spontaneous activation only took place within each cortical area, but not between them. When a small, drifting grating (2degreesX2degrees) was presented on the fovea. a dark spot appeared in the optical image at the cortical representation of this retinal location. It spread bilaterally along the border between V1 and V2, continuing as a number of parallel dark bands covering a large area of the lateral surface of V1. Cross-correlation analysis showed that during visual stimulation the intrinsic signals over all of the three cortical areas were synchronized, with in-phase activation of V1 and V2 and anti-phase activation of V4 and V1/V2. The significance of these extensive synergistic and antagonistic interactions between different cortical areas is discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Motor unit synchronization of the vasti muscles in closed and open chain tasks

Objectives: To investigate motor unit synchronization between medial and lateral vasti and whether such synchronization differs in closed and open chain tasks. Design: Electromyographic recordings of single motor unit action potentials were made from the vastus medialis obliquus (VMO) and multiunit recordings from vastus lateralis during isometric contractions at 30 degrees of knee flexion in closed and open chain conditions. Setting: Laboratory. Participants: Five volunteers with no history of knee pain (age, 30 +/- 3.32y). Interventions: Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure: The degree of synchronization between motor unit firing was evaluated by identifying peaks in the electromyographic averages of the vastus lateralis, triggered from motor unit action potentials in the VMO, and the proportion of power in the power spectral density of the triggered average at the firing frequency of the reference motor unit. The proportion of cases in which there was significant power and peaks in the triggered averages was calculated. Results: The proportion of trials with peaks in the triggered averages of the vastus lateralis electromyographic activity was greater than 61.5% in all tasks, and there was a significantly greater proportion of cases where power in the spectrum was greater than 7.5% (P = .01) for the closed chain condition. Conclusions: There was a high proportion of synchronized motor units between the 2 muscles during isometric contractions, with evidence for greater common drive between the VMO and vastus lateralis in closed chain tasks. This has implications for rehabilitation because it suggests that closed chain tasks may generate better coordination between the vasti muscles.

Quantifying the complexity of chaos in multibasin multidimensional dynamics of molecular systems

The simulated classical dynamics of a small molecule exhibiting self-organizing behavior via a fast transition between two states is analyzed by calculation of the statistical complexity of the system. It is shown that the complexity of molecular descriptors such as atom coordinates and dihedral angles have different values before and after the transition. This provides a new tool to identify metastable states during molecular self-organization. The highly concerted collective motion of the molecule is revealed. Low-dimensional subspaces dynamics is found sensitive to the processes in the whole, high-dimensional phase space of the system. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Phase synchronization of a two-channel phase-sensitive amplifier based on optical injection-locking of InP quantum-dash mode-locked lasers

A synchronization scheme for a two-channel phase sensitive amplifier is implemented based on the injection-locking of single InP quantum-dash mode-locked laser. Error free performance with penalty <1 dB is demonstrated for both channels. © 2011 Optical Society of America.

Neural Control of Chaos and Aplications

Signal processing is an important topic in technological research today. In the areas of nonlinear dynamics search, the endeavor to control or order chaos is an issue that has received increasing attention over the last few years. Increasing interest in neural networks composed of simple processing elements (neurons) has led to widespread use of such networks to control dynamic systems learning. This paper presents backpropagation-based neural network architecture that can be used as a controller to stabilize unsteady periodic orbits. It also presents a neural network-based method for transferring the dynamics among attractors, leading to more efficient system control. The procedure can be applied to every point of the basin, no matter how far away from the attractor they are. Finally, this paper shows how two mixed chaotic signals can be controlled using a backpropagation neural network as a filter to separate and control both signals at the same time. The neural network provides more effective control, overcoming the problems that arise with control feedback methods. Control is more effective because it can be applied to the system at any point, even if it is moving away from the target state, which prevents waiting times. Also control can be applied even if there is little information about the system and remains stable longer even in the presence of random dynamic noise.

A New Method For Combining Detrending Techniques with Application to Business Cycle Synchronization of the New EU Members

Decomposing output into trend and cyclical components is an uncertain exercise and depends on the method applied. It is an especially dubious task for countries undergoing large structural changes, such as transition countries. Despite their deficiencies, however, univariate detrending methods are frequently adopted for both policy oriented and academic research. This paper proposes a new procedure for combining univariate detrending techniques which is based on revisions of the estimated output gaps adjusted by the variance of and the correlation among output gaps. The procedure is applied to the study of the similarity of business cycles between the euro area and new EU Member States.

Synchronization of Heteroclinic Circuits Through Learning in Chains of Neural Motifs

The synchronization of oscillatory activity in networks of neural networks is usually implemented through coupling the state variables describing neuronal dynamics. In this study we discuss another but complementary mechanism based on a learning process with memory. A driver network motif, acting as a teacher, exhibits winner-less competition (WLC) dynamics, while a driven motif, a learner, tunes its internal couplings according to the oscillations observed in the teacher. We show that under appropriate training the learner motif can dynamically copy the coupling pattern of the teacher and thus synchronize oscillations with the teacher. Then, we demonstrate that the replication of the WLC dynamics occurs for intermediate memory lengths only. In a unidirectional chain of N motifs coupled through teacher-learner paradigm the time interval required for pattern replication grows linearly with the chain size, hence the learning process does not blow up and at the end we observe phase synchronized oscillations along the chain. We also show that in a learning chain closed into a ring the network motifs come to a consensus, i.e. to a state with the same connectivity pattern corresponding to the mean initial pattern averaged over all network motifs.

Nanosecond-level time synchronization of autonomous radio detector stations for extensive air showers

To exploit the full potential of radio measurements of cosmic-ray air showers at MHz frequencies, a detector timing synchronization within 1 ns is needed. Large distributed radio detector arrays such as the Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) rely on timing via the Global Positioning System (GPS) for the synchronization of individual detector station clocks. Unfortunately, GPS timing is expected to have an accuracy no better than about 5 ns. In practice, in particular in AERA, the GPS clocks exhibit drifts on the order of tens of ns. We developed a technique to correct for the GPS drifts, and an independent method is used to cross-check that indeed we reach a nanosecond-scale timing accuracy by this correction. First, we operate a "beacon transmitter" which emits defined sine waves detected by AERA antennas recorded within the physics data. The relative phasing of these sine waves can be used to correct for GPS clock drifts. In addition to this, we observe radio pulses emitted by commercial airplanes, the position of which we determine in real time from Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcasts intercepted with a software-defined radio. From the known source location and the measured arrival times of the pulses we determine relative timing offsets between radio detector stations. We demonstrate with a combined analysis that the two methods give a consistent timing calibration with an accuracy of 2 ns or better. Consequently, the beacon method alone can be used in the future to continuously determine and correct for GPS clock drifts in each individual event measured by AERA.

Synchronization and Basins of Synchronized in Two-Dimensional Piecewise Maps Via Coupling Three Pieces of One-Dimensional Maps

This paper is devoted to the synchronization of a dynamical system defined by two different coupling versions of two identical piecewise linear bimodal maps. We consider both local and global studies, using different tools as natural transversal Lyapunov exponent, Lyapunov functions, eigenvalues and eigenvectors and numerical simulations. We obtain theoretical results for the existence of synchronization on coupling parameter range. We characterize the synchronization manifold as an attractor and measure the synchronization speed. In one coupling version, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the synchronization. We study the basins of synchronization and show that, depending upon the type of coupling, they can have very different shapes and are not necessarily constituted by the whole phase space; in some cases, they can be riddled.

Studies on Chaos and Synchronization in ac-driven Josephson junctions

The main goal of this thesis is to study the dynamics of Josephson junction system in the presence of an external rf-biasing.A system of two chaotically synchronized Josephson junction is studied.The change in the dynamics of the system in the presence of at phase difference between the applied fields is considered. Control of chaos is very important from an application point of view. The role Of phase difference in controlling chaos is discussed.An array of three Josephson junctions iS studied for the effect of phase difference on chaos and synchronization and the argument is extended for a system of N Josephson junctions. In the presence of a phase difference between the external fields, the system exhibits periodic behavior with a definite phase relationship between all the three junctions.Itdeals with an array of three Josephson junctions with a time delay in the coupling term. It is observed that only the outer systems synchronize while the middle system remain uncorrelated with t-he other two. The effect of phase difference between the applied fields and time-delay on system dynamics and synchronization is also studied. We study the influence of an applied ac biasing on a serniannular Josephson junction. It is found the magnetic field along with the biasing induces creation and annihilation of fluxons in the junction. The I-V characteristics of the junction is studied by considering the surface loss term also in the model equation. The system is found to exhibit chaotic behavior in the presence of ac biasing.