Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GMC

A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.

A simple method for integrating a complex model into an ensemble data assimilation system using MPI

This paper details a strategy for modifying the source code of a complex model so that the model may be used in a data assimilation context, {and gives the standards for implementing a data assimilation code to use such a model}. The strategy relies on keeping the model separate from any data assimilation code, and coupling the two through the use of Message Passing Interface (MPI) {functionality}. This strategy limits the changes necessary to the model and as such is rapid to program, at the expense of ultimate performance. The implementation technique is applied in different models with state dimension up to $2.7 \times 10^8$. The overheads added by using this implementation strategy in a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model are shown to be an order of magnitude smaller than the addition of correlated stochastic random errors necessary for some nonlinear data assimilation techniques.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K−1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K−1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Avaliação do efeito cerebral agudo do Metilfenidato, através de Spect, em crianças e adolescentes do sexo masculino com transtorno de déficit de atenção e hiperatividade : um ensaio clínico randomizado

Resumo não disponível.

Estudos de algumas ferramentas de coleta e visualização de dados e desempenho de aplicações paralelas no ambiente MPI

The last years have presented an increase in the acceptance and adoption of the parallel processing, as much for scientific computation of high performance as for applications of general intention. This acceptance has been favored mainly for the development of environments with massive parallel processing (MPP - Massively Parallel Processing) and of the distributed computation. A common point between distributed systems and MPPs architectures is the notion of message exchange, that allows the communication between processes. An environment of message exchange consists basically of a communication library that, acting as an extension of the programming languages that allow to the elaboration of applications parallel, such as C, C++ and Fortran. In the development of applications parallel, a basic aspect is on to the analysis of performance of the same ones. Several can be the metric ones used in this analysis: time of execution, efficiency in the use of the processing elements, scalability of the application with respect to the increase in the number of processors or to the increase of the instance of the treat problem. The establishment of models or mechanisms that allow this analysis can be a task sufficiently complicated considering parameters and involved degrees of freedom in the implementation of the parallel application. An joined alternative has been the use of collection tools and visualization of performance data, that allow the user to identify to points of strangulation and sources of inefficiency in an application. For an efficient visualization one becomes necessary to identify and to collect given relative to the execution of the application, stage this called instrumentation. In this work it is presented, initially, a study of the main techniques used in the collection of the performance data, and after that a detailed analysis of the main available tools is made that can be used in architectures parallel of the type to cluster Beowulf with Linux on X86 platform being used libraries of communication based in applications MPI - Message Passing Interface, such as LAM and MPICH. This analysis is validated on applications parallel bars that deal with the problems of the training of neural nets of the type perceptrons using retro-propagation. The gotten conclusions show to the potentiality and easinesses of the analyzed tools.

DIAGNOSIS of REGIONAL CEREBRAL BLOOD FLOW ABNORMALITIES USING SPECT: AGREEMENT BETWEEN INDIVIDUALIZED STATISTICAL PARAMETRIC MAPS and VISUAL INSPECTION BY NUCLEAR MEDICINE PHYSICIANS WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS of EXPERTISE IN NUCLEAR NEUROLOGY

INTRODUCTION: Visual analysis is widely used to interpret regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) SPECT images in clinical practice despite its limitations. Automated methods are employed to investigate between-group rCBF differences in research Studies but have rarely been explored in individual analyses.OBJECTIVES: To compare visual inspection by nuclear physicians with the automated statistical parametric mapping program using a SPECT dataset of patients with neurological disorders and normal control images.METHODS: Using statistical parametric mapping, 14 SPECT images from patients with various neurological disorders were compared individually with a databank of 32 normal images using a statistical threshold of p<0.05 (corrected for multiple comparisons at the level of individual voxels or clusters). Statistical parametric mapping results were compared with Visual analyses by a nuclear physician highly experienced in neurology (A) as well as a nuclear physician with a general background of experience (B) who independently classified images as normal or altered, and determined the location of changes and the severity.RESULTS: of the 32 images of the normal databank, 4 generated maps showing rCBF abnormalities (p<0.05, corrected). Among the 14 images from patients with neurological disorders, 13 showed rCBF alterations. Statistical parametric mapping and physician A completely agreed on 84.37% and 64.28% of cases from the normal databank and neurological disorders, respectively. The agreement between statistical parametric mapping and ratings of physician B were lower (71.18% and 35.71%, respectively).CONCLUSION: Statistical parametric mapping replicated the findings described by the more experienced nuclear physician. This finding suggests that automated methods for individually analyzing rCBF SPECT images may be a valuable resource to complement visual inspection in clinical practice.

Evaluation of the microvascular density in astrocytomas in adults correlated using SPECT-MIBI

Microvascular density (MVD) may be an additional prognostic marker for astrocytomas, but the heterogeneity of these tumors limits its use. Thus, imaging examinations such as SPECT-MIBI (2-methoxyisobutyl isonitrile) may take on an indirect role in astrocytoma evaluation. The aim of this study was to evaluate MVD in astrocytomas using immunohistochemistry with anti-CD34 monoclonal antibodies. The relationship between the immunohistochemical data and the parameters obtained from SPECT-MIBI was evaluated. This cross-sectional study evaluated 48 patients with brain tumors including low-grade astrocytomas (LGAs), anaplastic astrocytomas (AAs) and glioblastoma multiformes (GBMs). Patients had been admitted to the Hospital de Cancer de Barretos - Fundação Pio XII, and underwent brain SPECT-MIBI prior to any treatment. MVD was determined under an optical microscope by counting microvessels on slides from each case. SPECT-MIBI images were analyzed visually and semiquantitatively. GBMs, AAs and LGAs represented 50, 16.7 and 33.3% of the total sample, respectively. There were 13 normal and 35 abnormal SPECT-MIBI images. Significant differences in MVD were found between AA and LGA cases (p=0.040), but not between normal and abnormal SPECT-MIBI. The mean counts from SPECT-MIBI were not correlated with MVD. Among the GBM cases, there were no significant findings, except for an increased likelihood of abnormal histological test results. MVD was related to histological grade (in AA and LGA cases) but was not correlated with SPECT-MIBI.

Perfusão cerebral e análise individual automatizada utilizando SPECT em uma população com transtorno obsessivo-compulsivo

Objective: To make individual assessments using automated quantification methodology in order to screen for perfusion abnormalities in cerebral SPECT examinations among a sample of subjects with OCD. Methods: Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to compare 26 brain SPECT images from patients with OCD individually with an image bank of 32 normal subjects, using the statistical threshold of p < 0.05 (corrected for multiple comparisons at the level of individual voxels or clusters). The maps were analyzed, and regions presenting voxels that remained above this threshold were sought. results: Six patients from a sample of 26 OCD images showed abnormalities at cluster or voxel level, considering the criteria described above, which represented 23.07%. However, seven images from the normal group of 32 were also indicated as cases of perfusional abnormality, representing 21.8% of the sample. Conclusion: The automated quantification method was not considered to be a useful tool for clinical practice, for analyses complementary to visual inspection.

Quantificação da resoluçao do sistema SPECT-CZT através do uso da função de transferência modulada (MTF)

Pós-graduação em Biologia Geral e Aplicada - IBB

Alterações de fluxos sanguíneos cerebrais regionais (FSCr) avaliados através de SPECT (Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography) em pacientes com câncer de mama submetidas à quimioterapia adjuvante

Pós-graduação em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (Biotecnologia Médica) - FMB

Avaliação da densidade microvascular em astrocitomas em adultos correlacionada com SPECT-MIBI

Pós-graduação em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (Biotecnologia Médica) - FMB

Estudos estruturais por dinâmica molecular do peptídeo Polybia-MPI via Replica Exchange

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

SPECT (Single photon emission tomography): Gama câmara, reconstrução tomográfica e características funcional

The SPECT (Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography) systems are part of a medical image acquisition technology which has been outstanding, because the resultant images are functional images complementary to those that give anatomic information, such as X-Ray CT, presenting a high diagnostic value. These equipments acquire, in a non-invasive way, images from the interior of the human body through tomographic mapping of radioactive material administered to the patient. The SPECT systems are based on the Gamma Camera detection system, and one of them being set on a rotational gantry is enough to obtain the necessary data for a tomographic image. The images obtained from the SPECT system consist in a group of flat images that describe the radioactive distribution on the patient. The trans-axial cuts are obtained from the tomographic reconstruction techniques. There are analytic and iterative methods to obtain the tomographic reconstruction. The analytic methods are based on the Fourier Cut Theorem (FCT), while the iterative methods search for numeric solutions to solve the equations from the projections. Within the analytic methods, the filtered backprojection (FBP) method maybe is the simplest of all the tomographic reconstruction techniques. This paper's goal is to present the operation of the SPECT system, the Gamma Camera detection system, some tomographic reconstruction techniques and the requisites for the implementation of this system in a Nuclear Medicine service

Avaliação de Desempenho de Aplicações Paralelas Utilizando MPI e PETSc

This work presents a study about the use of standards and directions on parallel programming in distributed systems, using the MPI standard and PETSc toolkit, performing an analysis of their performances over certain mathematic operations involving matrices. The concepts are used to develop applications to solve problems involving Principal Components Analysis (PCA), which are executed in a Beowulf cluster. The results are compared to the ones of an analogous application with sequencial execution, and then it is analized if there was any performance boost on the parallel application

Performance of rest myocardial perfusion imaging in the management of acute chest pain in the emergency room in developing nations (PREMIER trial)

Background. Rest myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is effective in managing patients with acute chest pain in developed countries. We aimed to define the role and feasibility of rest MPI in low-to-middle income countries. Methods and Results. Low-to-intermediate risk patients (n = 356) presenting with chest pain to ten centers in eight developing countries were injected with a Tc-99m-based tracer, and standard imaging was performed. The primary outcome was a composite of death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), recurrent angina, and coronary revascularization at 30 days. Sixty-nine patients had a positive MPI (19.4%), and 52 patients (14.6%) had a primary outcome event. An abnormal rest-MPI result was the only variable which independently predicted the primary outcome [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 8.19, 95% confidence interval 4.10-16.40, P = .0001]. The association of MPI result and the primary outcome was stronger (adjusted OR 17.35) when only the patients injected during pain were considered. Rest-MPI had a negative predictive value of 92.7% for the primary outcome, improving to 99.3% for the hard event composite of death or MI. Conclusions. Our study demonstrates that rest-MPI is a reliable test for ruling out MI when applied to patients in developing countries. (J Nucl Cardiol 2012;19:1146-53.)