A Search for Muon Neutrinos in Coincidence with Gamma-Ray Bursts in the Southern Hemisphere Sky Using the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

The origin of observed ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs, energies in excess of $10^{18.5}$ eV) remains unknown, as extragalactic magnetic fields deflect these charged particles from their true origin. Interactions of these UHECRs at their source would invariably produce high energy neutrinos. As these neutrinos are chargeless and nearly massless, their propagation through the universe is unimpeded and their detection can be correlated with the origin of UHECRs. Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are one of the few possible origins for UHECRs, observed as short, immensely bright outbursts of gamma-rays at cosmological distances. The energy density of GRBs in the universe is capable of explaining the measured UHECR flux, making them promising UHECR sources. Interactions between UHECRs and the prompt gamma-ray emission of a GRB would produce neutrinos that would be detected in coincidence with the GRB’s gamma-ray emission. The IceCube Neutrino Observatory can be used to search for these neutrinos in coincidence with GRBs, detecting neutrinos through the Cherenkov radiation emitted by secondary charged particles produced in neutrino interactions in the South Pole glacial ice. Restricting these searches to be in coincidence with GRB gamma-ray emis- sion, analyses can be performed with very little atmospheric background. Previous searches have focused on detecting muon tracks from muon neutrino interactions fromthe Northern Hemisphere, where the Earth shields IceCube’s primary background of atmospheric muons, or spherical cascade events from neutrinos of all flavors from the entire sky, with no compelling neutrino signal found. Neutrino searches from GRBs with IceCube have been extended to a search for muon tracks in the Southern Hemisphere in coincidence with 664 GRBs over five years of IceCube data in this dissertation. Though this region of the sky contains IceCube’s primary background of atmospheric muons, it is also where IceCube is most sensitive to neutrinos at the very highest energies as Earth absorption in the Northern Hemisphere becomes relevant. As previous neutrino searches have strongly constrained neutrino production in GRBs, a new per-GRB analysis is introduced for the first time to discover neutrinos in coincidence with possibly rare neutrino-bright GRBs. A stacked analysis is also performed to discover a weak neutrino signal distributed over many GRBs. Results of this search are found to be consistent with atmospheric muon backgrounds. Combining this result with previously published searches for muon neutrino tracks in the Northern Hemisphere, cascade event searches over the entire sky, and an extension of the Northern Hemisphere track search in three additional years of IceCube data that is consistent with atmospheric backgrounds, the most stringent limits yet can be placed on prompt neutrino production in GRBs, which increasingly disfavor GRBs as primary sources of UHECRs in current GRB models.

Southern Hemisphere Summer Mesopause Responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

In the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar region, satellite observations reveal a significant upper-mesosphere cooling and a lower-thermosphere warming during warm ENSO events in December. An opposite pattern is observed in the tropical mesopause region. The observed upper-mesosphere cooling agrees with a climate model simulation. Analysis of the simulation suggests that enhanced planetary wave (PW) dissipation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high-latitude stratosphere during El Nino strengthens the Brewer-Dobson circulation and cools the equatorial stratosphere. This increases the magnitude of the SH stratosphere meridional temperature gradient and thus causes the anomalous stratospheric easterly zonal wind and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. The resulting perturbation to gravity wave (GW) filtering causes anomalous SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and polar upwelling and cooling. In addition, constructive inference of ENSO and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) could lead to stronger stratospheric easterly zonal wind anomalies at the SH high latitudes in November and December and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO events in the easterly QBO phase (defined by the equatorial zonal wind at similar to 25 hPa). This would in turn cause much more SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and much colder polar temperatures, and hence it would induce an early onset time of SH summer polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). The opposite mechanism occurs during cold ENSO events in the westerly QBO phase. This implies that ENSO together with QBO could significantly modulate the breakdown time of SH stratospheric polar vortex and the onset time of SH PMC.

Can Indian Ocean SST anomalies influence South American rainfall?

In this study we examine the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on South American circulation using observations and a suite of numerical experiments forced by a combination of Indian and Pacific SST anomalies. Previous studies have shown that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode can affect climate over remote regions across the globe, including over South America. Here we show that such a link exists not only with the IOD, but also with the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (IOBW). The IOBW, a response to El Nino events, tends to reinforce the South American anomalous circulation in March-to-May associated with the warm events in the Pacific. This leads to increased rainfall in the La Plata basin and decreased rainfall over the northern regions of the continent. In addition, the IOBW is suggested to be an important factor for modulating the persistence of dry conditions over northeastern South America during austral autumn. The link between the IOBW and South American climate occurs via alterations of the Walker circulation pattern and through a mid-latitude wave-train teleconnection.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

Skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer

We have performed GCM experiments using the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model to study the skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer and to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on such forecasts. The daily skill varies a great deal. The skillful daily forecasts last from 5 to 8 days for the Southern Hemisphere and from 6 to 8 days for the Northern Hemisphere. SSTAs have positive impact on the forecasts in the tropics and surface variables, but the impact of tropical SSTAs on the extra-tropical circulation is, in general, positive but small. Overall, the initial conditions play a more important role than SSTAs in determining the forecast skill.

Influence of tropical easterlies in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone during the Holocene

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. 

Southern Hemispheric Features and their Teleconnection with Indian Summer Monsoon

This thesis entitled southern hemispheric features and their Teleconnection with indian summer monsoon.Southern hemisphere is entirely distinct from the northern hemisphere in many aspects, which is well reflected in atmospheric and oceanic properties.The thesis consists of eight chapters, in which the first chapter contains an overview of southern hemisphere. In this chapter, variability in southern hemisphere is described along with Indian summer monsoon and its teleconnection. The different types of data sets used and various methodologies adopted in the present thesis were described in Chapter 2. The period of climate shift and the magnitude of anomalies after the climate shift, which extended from troposphere to stratopause level, were investigated in detail and presented in chapter 3. Chapter 4 depicts the recent trend and variability in southern stratosphere. The higher order variability during various months and the frequency of extremity is included in this chapter.Climatology of divergence and convergence after the documented shift is reported in chapter 5.Southern extratropical connection to Indian summer monsoon through the modulation of SAM is presented in Chapter 6.Chapter 7 deals with the modulation of SAM‐Monsoon link through North Atlantic Oscillation.

Dilution of the Antarctic ozone hole into southern midlatitudes, 1998-2000

The reduction in southern midlatitude ozone is quantified by evaluating the trajectories of ozone-depleted air masses, assuming that photochemical recovery of ozone in advected air parcels can be ignored. This procedure is carried out for the 3 months from 15 October to 15 January for each of the years 1998, 1999, and 2000. Two distinct source regions, the vortex core and the vortex edge, are considered, and for each day, diabatic reverse domain filling calculations are performed for an ensemble of parcels between 30°S and 60°S and 400–700 K in altitude. In 1998, 1999, and 2000 the mean calculated ozone reduction is 16, 18, and 19 DU, respectively. Air parcels from the vortex edge region are significant contributors to the reduction, especially during spring. Results for four longitudinal and three latitudinal midlatitude subregions are also presented. A comparison with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer measurements of total column ozone shows that without the dilution, ozone over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes would be 5–6% higher during spring and summer. This result is probably an overestimate due to the neglect of photochemical recovery.

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM

A common bias among global climate models (GCMs) is that they exhibit tropospheric southern annular mode (SAM) variability that is much too persistent in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summertime. This is of concern for the ability to accurately predict future SH circulation changes, so it is important that it be understood and alleviated. In this two-part study, specifically targeted experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) are used to improve understanding of the enhanced summertime SAM persistence. Given the ubiquity of this bias among comprehensive GCMs, it is likely that the results will be relevant for other climate models. Here, in Part I, the influence of climatological circulation biases on SAM variability is assessed, with a particular focus on two common biases that could enhance summertime SAM persistence: the too-late breakdown of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex and the equatorward bias in the SH tropospheric midlatitude jet. Four simulations are used to investigate the role of each of these biases in CMAM. Nudging and bias correcting procedures are used to systematically remove zonal-mean stratospheric variability and/or remove climatological zonal wind biases. The SAM time-scale bias is not alleviated by improving either the timing of the stratospheric vortex breakdown or the climatological jet structure. Even in the absence of stratospheric variability and with an improved climatological circulation, the model time scales are biased long. This points toward a bias in internal tropospheric dynamics that is not caused by the tropospheric jet structure bias. The underlying cause of this is examined in more detail in Part II of this study.

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part II: Eddy feedbacks

Many global climate models (GCMs) have trouble simulating Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variability correctly, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer season where it tends to be too persistent. In this two part study, a suite of experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is analyzed to improve our understanding of the dynamics of SAM variability and its deficiencies in GCMs. Here, an examination of the eddy-mean flow feedbacks is presented by quantification of the feedback strength as a function of zonal scale and season using a new methodology that accounts for intraseasonal forcing of the SAM. In the observed atmosphere, in the summer season, a strong negative feedback by planetary scale waves, in particular zonal wavenumber 3, is found in a localized region in the south west Pacific. It cancels a large proportion of the positive feedback by synoptic and smaller scale eddies in the zonal mean, resulting in a very weak overall eddy feedback on the SAM. CMAM is deficient in this negative feedback by planetary scale waves, making a substantial contribution to its bias in summertime SAM persistence. Furthermore, this bias is not alleviated by artificially improving the climatological circulation, suggesting that climatological circulation biases are not the cause of the planetary wave feedback deficiency in the model. Analysis of the summertime eddy feedbacks in the CMIP-5 models confirms that this is indeed a common problem among GCMs, suggesting that understanding this planetary wave feedback and the reason for its deficiency in GCMs is key to improving the fidelity of simulated SAM variability in the summer season.

Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study

Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential impact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high resolution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we compare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common features in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipolar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, differs from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warming. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical Atlantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quantified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temperature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections between the AMOC/North Atlantic region and the African and Indian monsoon regions.

Direct and ozone-mediated forcing of the Southern Annular Mode by greenhouse gases

We assess the roles of long-lived greenhouse gases and ozone depletion in driving meridional surface pressure gradients in the southern extratropics; these gradients are a defining feature of the Southern Annular Mode. Stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to have caused a strengthening of this mode during summer, with increasing long-lived greenhouse gases playing a secondary role. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we show that there is cancelation between the direct, radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases by the also substantial indirect—chemical and dynamical—feedbacks that greenhouse gases have via their impact on ozone. This sensitivity of the mode to greenhouse gas-induced ozone changes suggests that a consistent implementation of ozone changes due to long-lived greenhouse gases in climate models benefits the simulation of this important aspect of Southern Hemisphere climate.

Large contribution of supercooled liquid clouds to the solar radiation budget of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is a critical region for global climate, yet large cloud and solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean are a long-standing problem in climate models and are poorly understood, leading to biases in simulated sea surface temperatures. This study shows that supercooled liquid clouds are central to understanding and simulating the Southern Ocean environment. A combination of satellite observational data and detailed radiative transfer calculations is used to quantify the impact of cloud phase and cloud vertical structure on the reflected solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere summer. It is found that clouds with supercooled liquid tops dominate the population of liquid clouds. The observations show that clouds with supercooled liquid tops contribute between 27% and 38% to the total reflected solar radiation between 40° and 70°S, and climate models are found to poorly simulate these clouds. The results quantify the importance of supercooled liquid clouds in the Southern Ocean environment and highlight the need to improve understanding of the physical processes that control these clouds in order to improve their simulation in numerical models. This is not only important for improving the simulation of present-day climate and climate variability, but also relevant for increasing confidence in climate feedback processes and future climate projections.

First molecular estimate of sex-ratio of southern right whale calves, Eubalaena australis, for Brazilian waters

The southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) was one of the most intensively hunted whales between the 17th and 20th centuries in the southern hemisphere. Recent estimates indicate that today there are around 7000 whales, representing 5 to 10% Of its original population. On the other hand, recent studies estimated that the population that migrates to the Brazilian coast grew by 14% from 1987 to 2003. However, there is no information about sex-ratio for adults or for calves in this region, which is an important parameter for understanding the biology of the species. We present here the first estimate Of calves` sex-ratio of southern right whales found along the southern Brazilian coast, one of the most important wintering grounds for the species. Sex was molecularly indentified for 21 biopsies collected from calves between 1998 and 2002, along the coast of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina States, in southern Brazil. The sex-ratio was two females for one male, however, it was not statistically different (chi(2) test, alpha = 0.05; df = 1) from the expected ratio of 1:1. This result is in accordance with the sex-ratio estimated for the species of all ages using external morphology (and behaviour in formation), (is well as for most species of baleen whales.

A 950 yr temperature reconstruction from Duckhole Lake, southern Tasmania, Australia

A lack of quantitative high resolution paleoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere limits the ability to examine current trends within the context of long-term natural climate variability. This study presents a temperature reconstruction for southern Tasmania based on analyses of a sediment core from Duckhole Lake (43.365°S, 146.875°E). The relationship between non-destructive whole core scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and the instrumental temperature record (ad 1911–2000) was used to develop a calibration-in-time reflectance spectroscopy-based temperature model. Results showed that a trough in reflectance from 650 to 700 nm, which represents chlorophyll and its derivatives, was significantly correlated to annual mean temperature. A calibration model was developed (R = 0.56, p auto < 0.05, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.21°C, five-year filtered data, calibration period 1911–2000) and applied down-core to reconstruct annual mean temperatures in southern Tasmania over the last c. 950 years. This indicated that temperatures were initially cool c. ad 1050, but steadily increased until the late ad 1100s. After a brief cool period in the ad 1200s, temperatures again increased. Temperatures steadily decreased during the ad 1600s and remained relatively stable until the start of the 20th century when they rapidly decreased, before increasing from ad 1960s onwards. Comparisons with high resolution temperature records from western Tasmania, New Zealand and South America revealed some similarities, but also highlighted differences in temperature variability across the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These are likely due to a combination of factors including the spatial variability in climate between and within regions, and differences between records that document seasonal (i.e. warm season/late summer) versus annual temperature variability. This highlights the need for further records from the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in order to constrain past natural spatial and seasonal/annual temperature variability in the region, and to accurately identify and attribute changes to natural variability and/or anthropogenic activities.