Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

The first Triassic lungfish from South America (Santa Maria Formation, Paraná Basin) and its bearing on geological correlations within Pangaea

The Triassic fish faunas of the Southern Hemisphere are only known from a few sedimentary basins and the most productive sites are those from the Karoo Supergroup, in South Africa and the Sydney Basin of Australia. A single lungfish tooth plate ascribed to Ptychoceratodus cf. philippsi was recovered from Late Triassic (Carnian) red beds of southern Brazil and is described herein. This find extends to South America the palaeogeographic distribution of the genus, which occurs in the Early Triassic of Australia and South Africa and the Middle/Late Triassic of Europe and Late Triassic of Madagascar and India. The presence of this dipnoan solely in the uppermost part of the Santa Maria Formation suggests that the migration of Ptychoceratodus towards the Paraná Basin began not before the late Induan/early Olenekian (late Early Triassic). At that time, more humid (monsoonal) conditions prevailed in what is now southern Brazil, compared to semi-arid/desert conditions that dominated the Late Permian and possibly the earliest Early Triassic (the latter presumably not represented in the Paraná Basin). © The Geological Society of London 2008.

The radical Islamic militants of Central Asia. OSW Report, November 2013

Radical Islamic militants from Central Asia have ceased to be a local phenomenon. The organisations created by those groups (the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic Jihad Union) engage in propaganda, recruitment, fundraising and terrorist operations in states distant from their traditional area of interest, such as European Union countries, South Asia and the United States. Their ranks contain not only Central Asian Islamists, but also those from other countries, such as Russia, Pakistan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, China, Turkey and even Myanmar. These organisations’ current activities and forms are multidimensional and complicated, characterised by combat versatility, structural amorphism, operational mobility and simultaneous operations in different fields and theatres. As a result of the universalization of Islamic terrorism, these organisations have been intensifying contacts with other international Islamic terrorist organisations based in Waziristan (mainly al-Qaida, Taliban and the Haqqani Network). A specific system of mutual cooperation has developed between them, involving the specialisation of various terrorist organisations in particular aspects of terrorist activity. The IMU and IJU specialise in the recruitment and training of Islamic radicals from around the world, and have thus become a kind of ‘jihad academy’.

Economic Liberalisation and Environmental Concerns: A South Asian Perspective

This Article does not have an abstract.

Environmentalizing economic development: a South Asian perspective

South Asia's pursuit of economic development has entailed considerable damage to and exposed the fragility of the physical environment of the region. This paper provides an analytical overview of the of the environmental problem that manifest themselves in South Asia in a comparative perspective with East and Southeast Asian countries as well as selected developed market economics. To date, South Asian development process has been environment-intensive and environment-depleting. It is argued that environmental problems are likely to set serious constraints to sustain growth in production to support a growing population. By exploring the relationship between indices of human welfare and bio-diversity conservation. the paper exposes the dichotomy of the development process. Finally, the study underscores the need for a range of policy options that rely both based and non-market based instruments in an integrated setting to enviromnentalize South Asian economic development. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

The Allelic Abundance of Afghanistan, a Pool for West and South Eurasian Genes and a Blockade against Eastern Admixture

In this study, I divided samples from individuals within Afghanistan based upon geography (i.e., north versus south). I determined allelic frequencies and other statistical parameters for 15 STR loci (i.e., D8S1179, D21S11, D7S820, CSF1PO, D3S1358, TH01, Dl3S317, D16S539, D2S1338, D19S433, vWA, TPOX, D18S51, D5S818, and FGA). I conducted pairwise comparisons with 19 neighboring Eurasian populations to assign Gstatistics and p-values. Categorizing the populations into five groups (i.e., Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and the Caucasus/Anatolia), I derived values for intra-population, inter-population, and total variance. Admixture analyses determined the highest allelic contributions to be from the Caucasus/ Anatolia, while negligible contributions were made by Central Asia and East Asia. A Correspondence Analysis revealed clustering of both northern and southern Afghanistan with Georgia, Turkey, northern Iran, and southern Iran of the Caucasus/ Anatolia and the Middle East. A Neighbor-Joining phylogenetic tree was constructed to generate bootstrap values over 1, 000 reiterations.

The role of cultural beliefs in contributing to risky road use behaviour in Pakistan

Background Pakistan has the highest population rate of road fatalities in South Asia (25.3 fatalities per 100,000 people: Global Status Report on Road Safety, WHO 2009). Along with road environment and vehicle factors, human factors make a substantial contribution to traffic safety in Pakistan. Beliefs about road crash causation and prevention have been demonstrated to contribute to risky road use behaviour and resistance to preventive measures in a handful of other developing countries, but has not been explored in Pakistan. In particular, fatalism (whether based on religion, other cultural beliefs or experience) has been highlighted as a barrier to achieving changes in attitudes and behaviour. Aims The research reported here aimed (i) to explore perceptions of road crash causation among policy makers, police officers, professional drivers and car drivers in Pakistan; (ii) to identify how cultural and religious beliefs influence road use behaviour in Pakistan; and (iii) to understand how fatalistic beliefs may work as obstacles to road safety interventions. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted by the primary author (mostly in Urdu) in Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad with 12 professional drivers (taxi, bus and truck), 4 car drivers, 6 police officers, 4 policy makers and 2 religious orators. All but two were Muslim, two were female, and they were drawn from a wide range of ages (24 to 60) and educational backgrounds. The interviews were taped and transcribed, then translated into English and analysed for themes related to the aims. Results Fatalism emerged as a pervasive belief utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. These beliefs were not limited to people of poor educational background or position. A particular issue which was explored in more detail was the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. Discussion and conclusions The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which is difficult to change. The promotion of an evidence-based approach to road user behaviour is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

Gender gap in household investment : a study on Bhutan

Differing parental considerations for girls and boys in households are perceived as one of the primary causes of the gender gap in school enrolment and educational attainment in developing countries, particularly in the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. While there are a number of studies on the gender gap focusing on education and health provision in the countries in South Asia, little is known about Bhutan. This thesis aims to explore the gender gap in the intra-household allocation of resources on schooling and health provision for children in Bhutan. This thesis investigates whether boys are shown preference by their parents in terms of educational opportunities, including enrolment and spending on schooling as well as health. To conduct examination, this study makes use of household data from the Bhutan Living Standard Survey of 2007. Using cross-sectional as well as household fixed and random effect approaches, this study attempts to analyse the gender gap in allocation of resources across households as well as within households. The analysis includes characteristics of children and households such as gender and age of children, family wealth, education and gender of household head, number of dependents and the area of residence. The findings reveal a significant gender gap in schooling of children aged six to sixteen in Bhutan. However, no robust evidence of a gender gap has been found in the allocation of health expenditure on children aged less than sixteen. Policy recommendations to alleviate the gender bias in educational opportunities of females are proposed.

The obesity epidemic in Sri Lanka revisited

Obesity has reached epidemic levels in most affluent countries. In contrast, South Asia is presently considered a minimally affected region as malnutrition and infectious diseases are still their main health concerns.1 South Asians have poor attitudes toward obesity and being obese is considered as a sign of prosperity...

Asian-Australian Children’s Literature and Publishing (AACLAP)

Led by Queensland University of Technology, the Asian-Australian Children’s Literature and Publishing (AACLAP)research project investigates and records details of Australian children’s literature that is set in Asia and/or that represents Asian-Australian cultures and experiences and literature that is published in selected Asian languages. This includes East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Bay of Bengal. The AACLAP dataset is a comprehensive collection of agent and work records related to ’Asia’, including, but not limited to, autobiography, fiction, criticism, poetry, drama, short stories, and picture books, published during a forty-year period from 1970 to 2010. The dataset provide valuable primary and secondary sources that are important for developing literature-focused educational programs in line with the national government’s push for Asia Literacy. AACLAP is a subset of AustLit, the virtual research environment and information resource for Australian literary, print, and narrative culture scholars, students, and the public.

Gender bias in schooling : the case for Bhutan

Differing parental considerations for girls and boys in households are a primary cause of the gender gap in school enrolment and educational attainment in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. While a number of studies have focused on the inequality of educational opportunities in South Asia, little is known about Bhutan. This study uses recent household expenditure data from the Bhutan Living Standard Survey to evaluate the gender gap in the allocation of resources for schooling. The findings, based on cross-sectional as well as household fixed-effect approaches, suggest that girls are less likely to enrol in school but are not allocated fewer resources once they are enrolled.

Mapping mountains : a morphological study of traditional highland settlements in Chittagong Hill tracts of Bangladesh

This thesis is a morphological study of the settlement patterns of the diverse hill groups in Chittagong Hill Tracts – a mountainous borderland of Bangladesh in South Asia. It examines the settlement morphology of a hill town, using a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods, and explains the recurrent neighbourhood types of the highland groups in relation to their urbanisation. The research findings related to the settlements of diverse cultural groups in a cross-border region of the Asian uplands are also relevant to similar contexts and enquiries. Furthermore, the developed methodological framework that facilitated the data collection process in CHT's culturally diverse regions is also applicable to the investigation of geographic areas with similar socio-cultural complexities. Finally, this research specifically contributes to the literature of cross-cultural studies of highland towns and vernacular settlements in the Asian context.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Global environmental emissions estimate: Application of multiple imputation

A new database called the World Resource Table is constructed in this study. Missing values are known to produce complications when constructing global databases. This study provides a solution for applying multiple imputation techniques and estimates the global environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for CO2, SO2, PM10, and BOD. Policy implications for each type of emission are derived based on the results of the EKC using WRI. Finally, we predicted the future emissions trend and regional share of CO2 emissions. We found that East Asia and South Asia will be increasing their emissions share while other major CO2 emitters will still produce large shares of the total global emissions.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.