Bayesian methodology for genetics of complex diseases

Genetic research of complex diseases is a challenging, but exciting, area of research. The early development of the research was limited, however, until the completion of the Human Genome and HapMap projects, along with the reduction in the cost of genotyping, which paves the way for understanding the genetic composition of complex diseases. In this thesis, we focus on the statistical methods for two aspects of genetic research: phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology and methods for identifying potentially associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP-SNP interactions. With regard to phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology, we firstly investigated the effects of different statistical phenotyping approaches on the subsequent analysis. In light of the findings, and the difficulties in validating the estimated phenotype, we proposed two different methods for reconciling phenotypes of different models using Bayesian model averaging as a coherent mechanism for accounting for model uncertainty. In the second part of the thesis, the focus is turned to the methods for identifying associated SNPs and SNP interactions. We review the use of Bayesian logistic regression with variable selection for SNP identification and extended the model for detecting the interaction effects for population based case-control studies. In this part of study, we also develop a machine learning algorithm to cope with the large scale data analysis, namely modified Logic Regression with Genetic Program (MLR-GEP), which is then compared with the Bayesian model, Random Forests and other variants of logic regression.

Association between prostinogen (KLK15) genetic variants and prostate cancer risk and aggressiveness in Australia and a meta-analysis of GWAS data

Background: Kallikrein 15 (KLK15)/Prostinogen is a plausible candidate for prostate cancer susceptibility. Elevated KLK15 expression has been reported in prostate cancer and it has been described as an unfavorable prognostic marker for the disease. Objectives: We performed a comprehensive analysis of association of variants in the KLK15 gene with prostate cancer risk and aggressiveness by genotyping tagSNPs, as well as putative functional SNPs identified by extensive bioinformatics analysis. Methods and Data Sources: Twelve out of 22 SNPs, selected on the basis of linkage disequilibrium pattern, were analyzed in an Australian sample of 1,011 histologically verified prostate cancer cases and 1,405 ethnically matched controls. Replication was sought from two existing genome wide association studies (GWAS): the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) project and a UK GWAS study. Results: Two KLK15 SNPs, rs2659053 and rs3745522, showed evidence of association (p, 0.05) but were not present on the GWAS platforms. KLK15 SNP rs2659056 was found to be associated with prostate cancer aggressiveness and showed evidence of association in a replication cohort of 5,051 patients from the UK, Australia, and the CGEMS dataset of US samples. A highly significant association with Gleason score was observed when the data was combined from these three studies with an Odds Ratio (OR) of 0.85 (95% CI = 0.77-0.93; p = 2.7610 24). The rs2659056 SNP is predicted to alter binding of the RORalpha transcription factor, which has a role in the control of cell growth and differentiation and has been suggested to control the metastatic behavior of prostate cancer cells. Conclusions: Our findings suggest a role for KLK15 genetic variation in the etiology of prostate cancer among men of European ancestry, although further studies in very large sample sets are necessary to confirm effect sizes.

Identification of a novel prostate cancer susceptibility variant in the KLK3 gene transcript

Abstract Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 30 prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. One of these (rs2735839) is located close to a plausible candidate susceptibility gene, KLK3, which encodes prostate-specific antigen (PSA). PSA is widely used as a biomarker for PrCa detection and disease monitoring. To refine the association between PrCa and variants in this region, we used genotyping data from a two-stage GWAS using samples from the UK and Australia, and the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) study. Genotypes were imputed for 197 and 312 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from HapMap2 and the 1000 Genome Project, respectively. The most significant association with PrCa was with a previously unidentified SNP, rs17632542 (combined P = 3.9 × 10−22). This association was confirmed by direct genotyping in three stages of the UK/Australian GWAS, involving 10,405 cases and 10,681 controls (combined P = 1.9 × 10−34). rs17632542 is also shown to be associated with PSA levels and it is a non-synonymous coding SNP (Ile179Thr) in KLK3. Using molecular dynamic simulation, we showed evidence that this variant has the potential to introduce alterations in the protein or affect RNA splicing. We propose that rs17632542 may directly influence PrCa risk.

A novel SNP in COMT is associated with alcohol dependence but not opiate or nicotine dependence: a case control study

Background It is well established that COMT is a strong candidate gene for substance use disorder and schizophrenia. Recently we identified two SNPs in COMT (rs4680 and rs165774) that are associated with schizophrenia in an Australian cohort. Individuals with schizophrenia were more than twice as likely to carry the GG genotype compared to the AA genotype for both the rs165774 and rs4680 SNPs. Association of both rs4680 and rs165774 with substance dependence, a common comorbidity of schizophrenia has not been investigated. Methods To determine whether COMT is important in substance dependence, rs165774 and rs4680 were genotyped and haplotyped in patients with nicotine, alcohol and opiate dependence. Results The rs165774 SNP was associated with alcohol dependence. However, it was not associated with nicotine or opiate dependence. Individuals with alcohol dependence were more than twice as likely to carry the GG or AG genotypes compared to the AA genotype, indicating a dominant mode of inheritance. The rs4680 SNP showed a weak association with alcohol dependence at the allele level that did not reach significance at the genotype level but it was not associated with nicotine or opiate dependence. Analysis of rs165774/rs4680 haplotypes also revealed association with alcohol dependence with the G/G haplotype being almost 1.5 times more common in alcohol-dependent cases. Conclusions Our study provides further support for the importance of the COMT in alcohol dependence in addition to schizophrenia. It is possible that the rs165774 SNP, in combination with rs4680, results in a common molecular variant of COMT that contributes to schizophrenia and alcohol dependence susceptibility. This is potentially important for future studies of comorbidity. As our participant numbers are limited our observations should be viewed with caution until they are independently replicated.

DRD2 C957T and TaqIA genotyping reveals gender effects and unique low-risk and high-risk genotypes in alcohol dependence

AIMS: As recent conflicting reports describe a genetic association between both the C- and the T-alleles of the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) C957T polymorphism (rs6277) in alcohol-dependent subjects, our aim was to examine this polymorphism and TaqIA (rs1800497) in Australian alcohol-dependent subjects. METHODS: The C957T polymorphism was genotyped in 228 patients with alcohol dependence (72 females and 156 males) and 228 healthy controls. RESULTS: The C-allele and C/C genotype of C957T was associated with alcohol dependence, whereas the TaqIA polymorphism was not. When analysed separately for C957T, males showed an even stronger association with the C-allele and females showed no association. The C957T and TaqIA haplotyping revealed a strong association with alcohol dependence and a double-genotype analysis (combining C957T and TaqIA genotypes) revealed that the relative risk of different genotypes varied by up to 27-fold with the TT/A1A2 having an 8.5-fold lower risk of alcohol dependence than other genotypes. CONCLUSION: Decreased DRD2 binding associated with the C-allele of the DRD2 C957T polymorphism is likely to be important in the underlying pathophysiology of at least some forms of alcohol dependence, and this effect appears to be limited to males only.

Identification of 23 new prostate cancer susceptibility loci using the iCOGS custom genotyping

Prostate cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in males in developed countries. To identify common prostate cancer susceptibility alleles, we genotyped 211,155 SNPs on a custom Illumina array (iCOGS) in blood DNA from 25,074 prostate cancer cases and 24,272 controls from the international PRACTICAL Consortium. Twenty-three new prostate cancer susceptibility loci were identified at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8). More than 70 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, explaining ~30% of the familial risk for this disease, have now been identified. On the basis of combined risks conferred by the new and previously known risk loci, the top 1% of the risk distribution has a 4.7-fold higher risk than the average of the population being profiled. These results will facilitate population risk stratification for clinical studies.

Investigation of the role of the GABRG2 gene variant in migraine

Migraine is the most common neurological disorder worldwide affecting about 12% of the worldwide population. This disorder has been classed into two main types of migraine—with and without aura. While a number of factors can influence the onset of migraine, a major factor is that of genetics. The GABAA gene encodes for the GABAA receptor. Along with other receptors, the GABAA receptor is involved in the mediation of neuronal activities. In this study, a GABRG2 gene (GABAA receptor gamma-2-subunit) SNP (rs211037) was genotyped on a migraine case–control population of 546 (273 affected and an equal number of healthy) individuals. Using specifically designed primers, a high resolution melt (HRM) assay was carried out in the genotyping process. After genotyping, results were compared in the case and control populations. Analysis of results showed no significant differences in the allele frequencies between case and control populations. Similarly no differences were detected for subtypes or for a specific gender of migraine (p > 0.05). Although this gene has been previously found to be involved in febrile seizures and there is some co-morbidity between epilepsy and migraine, we decided to investigate this marker for involvement in migraine. The results did not support a role for the tested GABRG2 variant in migraine.

Investigation of two Wnt signalling pathway single nucleotide polymorphisms in a breast cancer-affected Australian population

In the mammary gland, Wnt signals are strongly implicated in initial development of the mammary rudiments and in the ductal branching and alveolar morphogenesis that occurs during pregnancy. Previously, we identified two Wnt signaling pathway-implicated genes, PPP3CA and MARK4, as having a role in more aggressive and potentially metastatic breast tumors. In this study, we examined two SNPs within PPP3CA and MARK4 in an Australian case-control study population for a potential role in human breast cancers. 182 cases and 180 controls were successfully genotyped for the PPP3CA SNP (rs2850328) and 182 cases and 177 controls were successfully genotyped for the MARK4 SNP (rs2395) using High Resolution Melt (HRM) analysis. Genotypes of randomly selected samples for both SNPs were validated by dye terminator sequencing. Chi-square tests were performed to determine any significant differences in the genotype and allele frequencies between the cases and controls. Chi-square analysis showed no statistically significant difference (p > .05) for genotype frequencies between cases and controls for rs2850328 (χ2 = 1.2, p = .5476) or rs2395 (χ2 = .3, p = .8608). Similarly, no statistical difference was observed for allele frequencies for rs2850328 (χ2 = .68, p = .4108) or rs2395 (χ2 = .02, p = .893). Even though an association of the polymorphisms rs2850328 and rs2395 and breast cancer was not detected in our case-control study population, other variants within the PPP3CA and MARK4 genes may still be associated with breast cancer, as both genes are implicated with processes involved in the disease as well as their mutual partaking in the Wnt signaling pathway.

High resolution melt analysis : a novel method for studying the genetic relatedness of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates from clinical and environmental sources

A novel method was developed for studying the genetic relatedness of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates from clinical and environmental sources. This bacterium is ubiquitous in the natural environment and is an important pathogen known to infect Cystic Fibrosis (CF) patients. The transmission route of strains has not yet been defined; current theories include acquisition from an environmental source or through patient-to-patient spread. A highly discriminatory, bioinformatics based, DNA typing method was developed to investigate the relatedness of clinical and environmental isolates. This study found a similarity between the environmental and several CF clonal strains and also highlighted occurrence of environmental P. aeruginosa strains in CF infections.

The association of single nucleotide polymorphisms with endometrial cancer risk and prognosis

Endometrial cancer is one of the most common female diseases in developed nations and is the most commonly diagnosed gynaecological cancer in Australia. The disease is commonly classified by histology: endometrioid or non-endometrioid endometrial cancer. While non-endometrioid endometrial cancers are accepted to be high-grade, aggressive cancers, endometrioid cancers (comprising 80% of all endometrial cancers diagnosed) generally carry a favourable patient prognosis. However, endometrioid endometrial cancer patients endure significant morbidity due to surgery and radiotherapy used for disease treatment, and patients with recurrent disease have a 5-year survival rate of less than 50%. Genetic analysis of women with endometrial cancer could uncover novel markers associated with disease risk and/or prognosis, which could then be used to identify women at high risk and for the use of specialised treatments. Proteases are widely accepted to play an important role in the development and progression of cancer. This PhD project hypothesised that SNPs from two protease gene families, the matrix metalloproteases (MMPs, including their tissue inhibitors, TIMPs) and the tissue kallikrein-related peptidases (KLKs) would be associated with endometrial cancer susceptibility and/or prognosis. In the first part of this study, optimisation of the genotyping techniques was performed. Results from previously published endometrial cancer genetic association studies were attempted to be validated in a large, multicentre replication set (maximum cases n = 2,888, controls n = 4,483, 3 studies). The rs11224561 progesterone receptor SNP (PGR, A/G) was observed to be associated with increased endometrial cancer risk (per A allele OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.12-1.53; p-trend = 0.001), a result which was initially reported among a Chinese sample set. Previously reported associations for the remaining 8 SNPs investigated for this section of the PhD study were not confirmed, thereby reinforcing the importance of validation of genetic association studies. To examine the effect of SNPs from the MMP and KLK families on endometrial cancer risk, we selected the most significantly associated MMP and KLK SNPs from genome-wide association study analysis (GWAS) to be genotyped in the GWAS replication set (cases n = 4,725, controls n = 9,803, 13 studies). The significance of the MMP24 rs932562 SNP was unchanged after incorporation of the stage 2 samples (Stage 1 per allele OR 1.18, p = 0.002; Combined Stage 1 and 2 OR 1.09, p = 0.002). The rs10426 SNP, located 3' to KLK10 was predicted by bioinformatic analysis to effect miRNA binding. This SNP was observed in the GWAS stage 1 result to exhibit a recessive effect on endometrial cancer risk, a result which was not validated in the stage 2 sample set (Stage 1 OR 1.44, p = 0.007; Combined Stage 1 and 2 OR 1.14, p = 0.08). Investigation of the regions imputed surrounding the MMP, TIMP and KLK genes did not reveal any significant targets for further analysis. Analysis of the case data from the endometrial cancer GWAS to identify genetic variation associated with cancer grade did not reveal SNPs from the MMP, TIMP or KLK genes to be statistically significant. However, the representation of SNPs from the MMP, TIMP and KLK families by the GWAS genotyping platform used in this PhD project was examined and observed to be very low, with the genetic variation of four genes (MMP23A, MMP23B, MMP28 and TIMP1) not captured at all by this technique. This suggests that comprehensive candidate gene association studies will be required to assess the role of SNPs from these genes with endometrial cancer risk and prognosis. Meta-analysis of gene expression microarray datasets curated as part of this PhD study identified a number of MMP, TIMP and KLK genes to display differential expression by endometrial cancer status (MMP2, MMP10, MMP11, MMP13, MMP19, MMP25 and KLK1) and histology (MMP2, MMP11, MMP12, MMP26, MMP28, TIMP2, TIMP3, KLK6, KLK7, KLK11 and KLK12). In light of these findings these genes should be prioritised for future targeted genetic association studies. Two SNPs located 43.5 Mb apart on chromosome 15 were observed from the GWAS analysis to be associated with increased endometrial cancer grade, results that were validated in silico in two independent datasets. One of these SNPs, rs8035725 is located in the 5' untranslated region of a MYC promoter binding protein DENND4A (Stage 1 OR 1.15, p = 9.85 x 10P -5 P, combined Stage 1 and in silico validation OR 1.13, p = 5.24 x 10P -6 P). This SNP has previously been reported to alter the expression of PTPLAD1, a gene involved in the synthesis of very long fatty acid chains and in the Rac1 signaling pathway. Meta-analysis of gene expression microarray data found PTPLAD1 to display increased expression in the aggressive non-endometrioid histology compared with endometrioid endometrial cancer, suggesting that the causal SNP underlying the observed genetic association may influence expression of this gene. Neither rs8035725 nor significant SNPs identified by imputation were predicted bioinformatically to affect transcription factor binding sites, indicating that further studies are required to assess their potential effect on other regulatory elements. The other grade- associated SNP, rs6606792, is located upstream of an inferred pseudogene, ELMO2P1 (Stage 1 OR 1.12, p = 5 x 10P -5 P; combined Stage 1 and in silico validation OR 1.09, p = 3.56 x 10P -5 P). Imputation of the ±1 Mb region surrounding this SNP revealed a cluster of significantly associated variants which are predicted to abolish various transcription factor binding sites, and would be expected to decrease gene expression. ELMO2P1 was not included on the microarray platforms collected for this PhD, and so its expression could not be investigated. However, the high sequence homology of ELMO2P1 with ELMO2, a gene important to cell motility, indicates that ELMO2 could be the parent gene for ELMO2P1 and as such, ELMO2P1 could function to regulate the expression of ELMO2. Increased expression of ELMO2 was seen to be associated with increasing endometrial cancer grade, as well as with aggressive endometrial cancer histological subtypes by microarray meta-analysis. Thus, it is hypothesised that SNPs in linkage disequilibrium with rs6606792 decrease the transcription of ELMO2P1, reducing the regulatory effect of ELMO2P1 on ELMO2 expression. Consequently, ELMO2 expression is increased, cell motility is enhanced leading to an aggressive endometrial cancer phenotype. In summary, these findings have identified several areas of research for further study. The results presented in this thesis provide evidence that a SNP in PGR is associated with risk of developing endometrial cancer. This PhD study also reports two independent loci on chromosome 15 to be associated with increased endometrial cancer grade, and furthermore, genes associated with these SNPs to be differentially expressed according in aggressive subtypes and/or by grade. The studies reported in this thesis support the need for comprehensive SNP association studies on prioritised MMP, TIMP and KLK genes in large sample sets. Until these studies are performed, the role of MMP, TIMP and KLK genetic variation remains unclear. Overall, this PhD study has contributed to the understanding of genetic variation involvement in endometrial cancer susceptibility and prognosis. Importantly, the genetic regions highlighted in this study could lead to the identification of novel gene targets to better understand the biology of endometrial cancer and also aid in the development of therapeutics directed at treating this disease.

Saliva-derived DNA performs well in large-scale, high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism microarray studies

As of June 2009, 361 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) had been referenced by the HuGE database. GWAS require DNA from many thousands of individuals, relying on suitable DNA collections. We recently performed a multiple sclerosis (MS) GWAS where a substantial component of the cases (24%) had DNA derived from saliva. Genotyping was done on the Illumina genotyping platform using the Infinium Hap370CNV DUO microarray. Additionally, we genotyped 10 individuals in duplicate using both saliva- and blood-derived DNA. The performance of blood- versus saliva-derived DNA was compared using genotyping call rate, which reflects both the quantity and quality of genotyping per sample and the “GCScore,” an Illumina genotyping quality score, which is a measure of DNA quality. We also compared genotype calls and GCScores for the 10 sample pairs. Call rates were assessed for each sample individually. For the GWAS samples, we compared data according to source of DNA and center of origin. We observed high concordance in genotyping quality and quantity between the paired samples and minimal loss of quality and quantity of DNA in the saliva samples in the large GWAS sample, with the blood samples showing greater variation between centers of origin. This large data set highlights the usefulness of saliva DNA for genotyping, especially in high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism microarray studies such as GWAS.

Replacement of healthcare-associated MRSA by community-associated MRSA in Queensland : confirmation by genotyping

Objective To describe the changing prevalence of healthcare- and community-associated MRSA. Methods Susceptibility phenotypes of MRSA were observed from 2000 to 2012 using routine susceptibility data. Phenotypic definitions of major clones were validated by genotyping isolates from a nested period prevalence survey in 2011. Results The predominant healthcare-associated (AUS-2/3 like) MRSA phenotype decreased from 42 to 14 isolates per million occasions of service in outpatients (P < 0.0001) and from 650 to 75 isolates per million accrued patient days in inpatients (P 0.0005), while the respective rates of the healthcare-related EMRSA-15 like phenotype increased from 1 to 19 in outpatients (P < 0.0001) and from 11 to 83 in inpatients (P < 0.0001) and those of the community-associated MRSA phenotype increased from 17 to 296 in outpatients (P < 0.0001) and from 71 to 486 in inpatients (P < 0.0001). When compared with single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping the AUS-2/3 like phenotype had a sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) for CC239 of 1 and 0.791 respectively, while the EMRSA-15 like phenotype had a sensitivity and PPV for CC22 of 0.903 and 0.774. PVL-positive CA-MRSA, predominantly ST93 and CC30, accounted for 60.8% of MRSA, while PVL-negative CA-MRSA, mainly CC5 and CC1, accounted for 21.4%. Conclusions The initially dominant healthcare-associated MRSA clone has been progressively replaced, mainly by four community-associated lineages.

Typing early Australian healthcare-associated MRSA : confirmation of major clones and emergence of ST1-MRSA-IV and novel ST2249-MRSA-III

AIMS: To investigate the evolutionary origins of Australian healthcare-associated (HCA) methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) strains from a panel of historical isolates typed using current genotyping techniques. METHODS: Nineteen MRSA isolates from 1965 to 1981 were examined and antibiotic susceptibility profiles determined. Genetic characterisation included real-time (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays to identify single nucleotide polymorhpism (SNP) clonal complexes (SNP CC) and sequence type (SNP ST), multi locus sequence typing (MLST) and staphylococcal chromosomal cassette mec typing. RESULTS: All SNP CC30 isolates belonged to a novel sequence type, ST2249. All SNP CC239 isolates were confirmed as ST239-MRSA-III, except for a new single locus variant of ST239, ST2275. A further new type, ST2276, was identified. CONCLUSIONS: The earliest MRSA examined from 1965 was confirmed as ST250-MRSA-I, consistent with archaic European types. Identification of ST1-MRSA-IV in 1981 is the earliest appearance of this clinically important lineage which manifested in Australia and the United States in the 1990s. A previously unknown multi-resistant clone, ST2249-MRSA-III, was identified from 1973. Gentamicin resistance first appeared in this novel strain from 1976 and not ST239 as previously suspected. Thus, ST2249 was present in the earliest phase of the HCA MRSA epidemic in eastern Australia and was perhaps related to the emergence of the globally epidemic strain ST239.

Polymorphisms in inflammation pathway genes and endometrial cancer risk

BACKGROUND Experimental and epidemiologic evidence have suggested that chronic inflammation may play a critical role in endometrial carcinogenesis. METHODS To investigate this hypothesis, a two-stage study was carried out to evaluate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in inflammatory pathway genes in association with endometrial cancer risk. In stage I, 64 candidate pathway genes were identified and 4,542 directly genotyped or imputed SNPs were analyzed among 832 endometrial cancer cases and 2,049 controls, using data from the Shanghai Endometrial Cancer Genetics Study. Linkage disequilibrium of stage I SNPs significantly associated with endometrial cancer (P < 0.05) indicated that the majority of associations could be linked to one of 24 distinct loci. One SNP from each of the 24 loci was then selected for follow-up genotyping. Of these, 21 SNPs were successfully designed and genotyped in stage II, which consisted of 10 additional studies including 6,604 endometrial cancer cases and 8,511 controls. RESULTS Five of the 21 SNPs had significant allelic odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) as follows: FABP1, 0.92 (0.85-0.99); CXCL3, 1.16 (1.05-1.29); IL6, 1.08 (1.00-1.17); MSR1, 0.90 (0.82-0.98); and MMP9, 0.91 (0.87-0.97). Two of these polymorphisms were independently significant in the replication sample (rs352038 in CXCL3 and rs3918249 in MMP9). The association for the MMP9 polymorphism remained significant after Bonferroni correction and showed a significant association with endometrial cancer in both Asian- and European-ancestry samples. CONCLUSIONS These findings lend support to the hypothesis that genetic polymorphisms in genes involved in the inflammatory pathway may contribute to genetic susceptibility to endometrial cancer. Impact statement: This study adds to the growing evidence that inflammation plays an important role in endometrial carcinogenesis.