Identification of patients at risk of poor outcomes following hip or knee arthroplasty

Les arthroplasties totales de la hanche (ATH) et du genou (ATG) sont souvent offertes aux patients atteints de dégénérescence articulaire sévère. Bien qu’efficace chez la majorité des patients, ces interventions mènent à des résultats sous-optimaux dans de nombreux cas. Il demeure difficile d’identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux à l’heure actuelle. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser la gamme de soins et de services offerts et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie. Ce mémoire a comme objectifs : 1) de réaliser une revue systématique des déterminants associés à la douleur et aux incapacités fonctionnelles rapportées par les patients à moyen-terme suivant ces deux types d’arthroplastie et 2) de développer des modèles de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles suivant l’ATH et l’ATG. Une revue systématique de la littérature identifiant les déterminants de la douleur et de la fonction suivant l’ATH et l’ATG a été réalisée dans quatre bases de données jusqu’en avril 2015 et octobre 2014, respectivement. Afin de développer un algorithme de prédiction pouvant identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux, nous avons aussi utilisé des données rétrospectives provenant de 265 patients ayant subi une ATH à l’Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont (HMR) de 2004 à 2010. Finalement, des données prospectives sur 141 patients recrutés au moment de leur inclusion sur une liste d’attente pour une ATG dans trois hôpitaux universitaires à Québec, Canada et suivis jusqu’à six mois après la chirurgie ont permis l’élaboration d’une règle de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles. Vingt-deux (22) études d’une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été incluses dans la revue. Les principaux déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH incluaient: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, un indice de la masse corporelle plus élevé, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, une scolarité plus faible, une arthrose radiographique moins sévère et la présence d’arthrose à la hanche controlatérale. Trente-quatre (34) études évaluant les déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATG avec une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été évaluées et les déterminants suivant ont été identifiés: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, un plus grands niveau d’anxiété et/ou de symptômes dépressifs, la présence de douleur au dos, plus de pensées catastrophiques ou un faible niveau socioéconomique. Pour la création d’une règle de prédiction clinique, un algorithme préliminaire composé de l’âge, du sexe, de l’indice de masse corporelle ainsi que de trois questions du WOMAC préopératoire a permis l’identification des patients à risque de résultats chirurgicaux sous-optimaux (pire quartile du WOMAC postopératoire et percevant leur hanche opérée comme artificielle avec des limitations fonctionnelles mineures ou majeures) à une durée moyenne ±écart type de 446±171 jours après une ATH avec une sensibilité de 75.0% (95% IC: 59.8 – 85.8), une spécificité de 77.8% (95% IC: 71.9 – 82.7) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 3.38 (98% IC: 2.49 – 4.57). Une règle de prédiction clinique formée de cinq items du questionnaire WOMAC préopratoire a permis l’identification des patients en attente d’une ATG à risque de mauvais résultats (pire quintile du WOMAC postopératoire) six mois après l’ATG avec une sensibilité de 82.1 % (95% IC: 66.7 – 95.8), une spécificité de 71.7% (95% IC: 62.8 – 79.8) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 2.9 (95% IC: 1.8 – 4.7). Les résultats de ce mémoire ont permis d’identifier, à partir de la littérature, une liste de déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH et l’ATG avec le plus haut niveau d’évidence à ce jour. De plus, deux modèles de prédiction avec de très bonnes capacités prédictives ont été développés afin d’identifier les patients à risque de mauvais résultats chirurgicaux après l’ATH et l’ATG. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser leur prise en charge et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie.

Identification of patients at risk of poor outcomes following hip or knee arthroplasty

Les arthroplasties totales de la hanche (ATH) et du genou (ATG) sont souvent offertes aux patients atteints de dégénérescence articulaire sévère. Bien qu’efficace chez la majorité des patients, ces interventions mènent à des résultats sous-optimaux dans de nombreux cas. Il demeure difficile d’identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux à l’heure actuelle. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser la gamme de soins et de services offerts et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie. Ce mémoire a comme objectifs : 1) de réaliser une revue systématique des déterminants associés à la douleur et aux incapacités fonctionnelles rapportées par les patients à moyen-terme suivant ces deux types d’arthroplastie et 2) de développer des modèles de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles suivant l’ATH et l’ATG. Une revue systématique de la littérature identifiant les déterminants de la douleur et de la fonction suivant l’ATH et l’ATG a été réalisée dans quatre bases de données jusqu’en avril 2015 et octobre 2014, respectivement. Afin de développer un algorithme de prédiction pouvant identifier les patients à risque de résultats sous-optimaux, nous avons aussi utilisé des données rétrospectives provenant de 265 patients ayant subi une ATH à l’Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont (HMR) de 2004 à 2010. Finalement, des données prospectives sur 141 patients recrutés au moment de leur inclusion sur une liste d’attente pour une ATG dans trois hôpitaux universitaires à Québec, Canada et suivis jusqu’à six mois après la chirurgie ont permis l’élaboration d’une règle de prédiction clinique permettant l’identification des patients à risque de mauvais résultats en terme de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles. Vingt-deux (22) études d’une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été incluses dans la revue. Les principaux déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH incluaient: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, un indice de la masse corporelle plus élevé, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, une scolarité plus faible, une arthrose radiographique moins sévère et la présence d’arthrose à la hanche controlatérale. Trente-quatre (34) études évaluant les déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATG avec une qualité méthodologique moyenne à excellente ont été évaluées et les déterminants suivant ont été identifiés: le niveau préopératoire de douleur et de fonction, des comorbidités médicales plus importantes, un état de santé générale diminué, un plus grands niveau d’anxiété et/ou de symptômes dépressifs, la présence de douleur au dos, plus de pensées catastrophiques ou un faible niveau socioéconomique. Pour la création d’une règle de prédiction clinique, un algorithme préliminaire composé de l’âge, du sexe, de l’indice de masse corporelle ainsi que de trois questions du WOMAC préopératoire a permis l’identification des patients à risque de résultats chirurgicaux sous-optimaux (pire quartile du WOMAC postopératoire et percevant leur hanche opérée comme artificielle avec des limitations fonctionnelles mineures ou majeures) à une durée moyenne ±écart type de 446±171 jours après une ATH avec une sensibilité de 75.0% (95% IC: 59.8 – 85.8), une spécificité de 77.8% (95% IC: 71.9 – 82.7) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 3.38 (98% IC: 2.49 – 4.57). Une règle de prédiction clinique formée de cinq items du questionnaire WOMAC préopratoire a permis l’identification des patients en attente d’une ATG à risque de mauvais résultats (pire quintile du WOMAC postopératoire) six mois après l’ATG avec une sensibilité de 82.1 % (95% IC: 66.7 – 95.8), une spécificité de 71.7% (95% IC: 62.8 – 79.8) et un rapport de vraisemblance positif de 2.9 (95% IC: 1.8 – 4.7). Les résultats de ce mémoire ont permis d’identifier, à partir de la littérature, une liste de déterminants de douleur et d’incapacités fonctionnelles après l’ATH et l’ATG avec le plus haut niveau d’évidence à ce jour. De plus, deux modèles de prédiction avec de très bonnes capacités prédictives ont été développés afin d’identifier les patients à risque de mauvais résultats chirurgicaux après l’ATH et l’ATG. L’identification de ces patients avant la chirurgie pourrait permettre d’optimiser leur prise en charge et de possiblement améliorer les résultats de leur chirurgie.

Modeling Alzheimer disease with iPSCs and mouse model for the identification of risk factors, new targets, and potential therapeutical strategies

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease in elderly. Donepezil is the first-line drug used for AD. In section one, the experimental activity was oriented to evaluate and characterize molecular and cellular mechanisms that contribute to neurodegeneration induced by the Aβ1-42 oligomers (Aβ1-42O) and potential neuroprotective effects of the hybrids feruloyl-donepezil compound called PQM130. The effects of PQM130 were compared to donepezil in a murine AD model, obtained by intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) injection of Aβ1-42O. The intraperitoneal administration of PQM130 (0.5-1 mg/kg) after i.c.v. Aβ1-42O injection improved learning and memory, protecting mice against spatial cognition decline. Moreover, it reduced oxidative stress, neuroinflammation and neuronal apoptosis, induced cell survival and protein synthesis in mice hippocampus. PQM130 modulated different pathways than donepezil, and it is more effective in counteracting Aβ1-42O damage. The section two of the experimental activity was focused on studying a loss of function variants of ABCA7. GWA studies identified mutations in the ABCA7 gene as a risk factor for AD. The mechanism through which ABCA7 contributes to AD is not clear. ABCA7 regulates lipid metabolism and critically controls phagocytic function. To investigate ABCA7 functions, CRISPR/Cas9 technology was used to engineer human iPSCs and to carry the genetic variant Y622*, which results in a premature stop codon, causing ABCA7 loss-of-function. From iPSCs, astrocytes were generated. This study revealed the effects of ABCA7 loss in astrocytes. ABCA7 Y622* mutation induced dysfunctional endocytic trafficking, impairing Aβ clearance, lipid dysregulation and cell homeostasis disruption, alterations that could contribute to AD. Though further studies are needed to confirm the PQM130 neuroprotective role and ABCA7 function in AD, the provided results showed a better understanding of AD pathophysiology, a new therapeutic approach to treat AD, and illustrated an innovative methodology for studying the disease.

Falls Among The Elderly: Risk Factors In A Population-based Study.

The aim of the present study was to identify factors associated with the occurrence of falls among elderly adults in a population-based study (ISACamp 2008). A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out with two-stage cluster sampling. The sample was composed of 1,520 elderly adults living in the urban area of the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. The occurrence of falls was analyzed based on reports of the main accident occurred in the previous 12 months. Data on socioeconomic/demographic factors and adverse health conditions were tested for possible associations with the outcome. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated and adjusted for gender and age using the Poisson multiple regression analysis. Falls were more frequent, after adjustment for gender and age, among female elderly participants (PR = 2.39; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.47 - 3.87), elderly adults (80 years old and older) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.61 - 3.88), widowed (PR = 1.74; 95% CI 1.04 - 2.89) and among elderly adults who had rheumatism/arthritis/arthrosis (PR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.00 - 2.48), osteoporosis (PR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.18 - 2.49), asthma/bronchitis/emphysema (PR = 1,73; 95% CI 1.09 - 2.74), headache (PR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.07 - 2.38), mental common disorder (PR = 1.72; 95% CI 1.12 - 2.64), dizziness (PR = 2.82; 95% CI 1.98 - 4.02), insomnia (PR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.16 - 2.65), use of multiple medications (five or more) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.12 - 5.56) and use of cane/walker (PR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.19 - 3,93). The present study shows segments of the elderly population who are more prone to falls through the identification of factors associated with this outcome. The findings can contribute to the planning of public health policies and programs addressed to the prevention of falls.

Elevated Risk for HIV-1 Infection in Adolescents and Young Adults in São Paulo, Brazil

Background. Recent studies have sought to describe HIV infection and transmission characteristics around the world. Identification of early HIV-1 infection is essential to proper surveillance and description of regional transmission trends. In this study we compare people recently infected (RI) with HIV-1, as defined by Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS), to those with chronic infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Subjects were identified from 2002-2004 at four testing sites in São Paulo. Of 485 HIV-1-positive subjects, 57 (12%) were defined as RI. Of the participants, 165 (34.0%) were aware of their serostatus at the time of HIV-1 testing. This proportion was statistically larger (p<0.001) among the individuals without recent infection (n = 158, 95.8%) compared to 7 individuals (4.2%) with recently acquired HIV-1 infection. In the univariate analysis, RI was more frequent in <25 and >59 years-old age strata (p<0.001). The majority of study participants were male (78.4%), 25 to 45 years-old (65.8%), white (63.2%), single (61.7%), with family income of four or more times the minimum wage (41.0%), but with an equally distributed educational level. Of those individuals infected with HIV-1, the predominant route of infection was sexual contact (89.4%), with both hetero (47.5%) and homosexual (34.5%) exposure. Regarding sexual activity in these individuals, 43.9% reported possible HIV-1 exposure through a seropositive partner, and 49.4% reported multiple partners, with 47% having 2 to 10 partners and 37.4% 11 or more; 53.4% of infected individuals reported condom use sometimes; 34.2% reported non-injecting, recreational drug use and 23.6% were reactive for syphilis by VDRL. Subjects younger than 25 years of age were most vulnerable according to the multivariate analysis. ) Conclusions/Significance In this study, we evaluated RI individuals and discovered that HIV-1 has been spreading among younger individuals in São Paulo and preventive approaches should, therefore, target this age stratum

Elevated Risk for HIV-1 Infection in Adolescents and Young Adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background. Recent studies have sought to describe HIV infection and transmission characteristics around the world. Identification of early HIV-1 infection is essential to proper surveillance and description of regional transmission trends. In this study we compare people recently infected (RI) with HIV-1, as defined by Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS), to those with chronic infection. Methodology/Principal Findings. Subjects were identified from 2002-2004 at four testing sites in Sao Paulo. Of 485 HIV-1-positive subjects, 57 (12%) were defined as RI. Of the participants, 165 (34.0%) were aware of their serostatus at the time of HIV-1 testing. This proportion was statistically larger (p<0.001) among the individuals without recent infection (n = 158, 95.8%) compared to 7 individuals (4.2%) with recently acquired HIV-1 infection. In the univariate analysis, RI was more frequent in,25 and >59 years-old age strata (p < 0.001). The majority of study participants were male (78.4%), 25 to 45 years-old (65.8%), white (63.2%), single (61.7%), with family income of four or more times the minimum wage (41.0%), but with an equally distributed educational level. Of those individuals infected with HIV-1, the predominant route of infection was sexual contact (89.4%), with both hetero (47.5%) and homosexual (34.5%) exposure. Regarding sexual activity in these individuals, 43.9% reported possible HIV-1 exposure through a seropositive partner, and 49.4% reported multiple partners, with 47% having 2 to 10 partners and 37.4% 11 or more; 53.4% of infected individuals reported condom use sometimes; 34.2% reported non-injecting, recreational drug use and 23.6% were reactive for syphilis by VDRL. Subjects younger than 25 years of age were most vulnerable according to the multivariate analysis. Conclusions/Significance. In this study, we evaluated RI individuals and discovered that HIV-1 has been spreading among younger individuals in Sao Paulo and preventive approaches should, therefore, target this age stratum.

Using Bayesian networks with rule extraction to infer the risk of weed infestation in a corn-crop

This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification and control of occupational risks in a Sao Paulo metropolitan region quarry

Crushed stone mining is the third largest mining economy in Brazil, where almost half is produced in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region. The segment registers the highest number of accidents among the extractive industries, which justifies the concern with workers` health and safety, and the importance of controlling occupational hazards. Since 2002, the NR-22 Standard (NR-22: Occupational Health and Safety in Mining) makes compulsory the elaboration of a Risk Management Program that identifies risks and establishes control measures. Considering the crushed stone mining industry importance to the state, this paper evaluates and discusses the risks identified in unit operations during the production process of crushed stone in an open pit mine in order to propose control measures for the development of the Risk Management Program. Although this study refers to a specific quarry, it can be applied to other mines from the same sector since some considerations are made regarding differences in manufacturing processes. The research was based on the identification of the main risks associated with drilling, blasting, load & haulage, crushing and screening through field measurements of some hazardous agents, together with company reports. The results contributed to the choice of the appropriate control measures for the improvement Of workers` health and safety conditions.

Refining the risk-benefit equation for thrombolysis: How to identity the low risk patient before administering thrombolytic therapy

In view of the relative risk of intracranial haemorrhage and major bleeding with thrombolytic therapy, it is important ro identify as early as possible the low risk patient who may not have a net clinical benefit from thrombolysis in the setting of acute myocardial infarction. An analysis of 5434 hospital-treated patients with myocardial infarction in the Perth MONICA study showed that age below 60 and absence of previous infarction or diabetes, shock, pulmonary oedema, cardiac arrest and Q-wave or left bundle branch block on the initial ECG identified a large group of patients with a 28 day mortality of only 1%, and one year mortality of only 2%. Identification of baseline risk in this way helps refine the risk-benefit equation for thrombolytic therapy, and may help avoid unnecessary use of thrombolysis in those unlikely to benefit.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PM(2.5) and PM(10): The influence of sugarcane burning on potential cancer risk

In Brazil, sugarcane fields are often burned to facilitate manual harvesting, and this burning causes environmental pollution from the large amounts of soot released into the atmosphere. This material contains numerous organic compounds such as PAHs. In this study, the concentrations of PAHs in two particulate-matter fractions (PM(2.5) and PM(10)) in the city of Araraquara (SE Brazil, with around 200,000 inhabitants and surrounded by sugarcane plantations) were determined during the sugarcane harvest (HV) and non-harvest (NHV) seasons in 2008 and 2009. The sampling strategy included four campaigns, with 60 samples in the NHV season and 220 samples in the HV season. The PM(2.5) and PM(10) fractions were collected using a dichotomous sampler (10 L min(-1), 24 h) with Teflon (TM) filters. The filter sets were extracted (ultrasonic bath with hexane/acetone (1:1 v/v)) and analyzed by HPLC/Fluorescence. The median concentration for total PAHs (PM(2.5) in 2009) was 0.99 ng m(-3) (NHV) and 3.3 ng m(-3) (HV). In the HV season, the total concentration of carcinogenic PAHs (benz(a)anthracene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, and benzo(a)pyrene) was 5 times higher than in the NHV season. B(a)P median concentrations were 0.017 ng m(-3) and 0.12 ng m(-3) for the NHV and HV seasons, respectively. The potential cancer risk associated with exposure through inhalation of these compounds was estimated based on the benzo[a]pyrene toxic equivalence (BaP(eq)), where the overall toxicity of a PAR mixture is defined by the concentration of each compound multiplied by its relative toxic equivalence factor (TEF). BaP(eq) median (2008 and 2009 years) ranged between 0.65 and 1.0 ng m(-3) and 1.2-1.4 ng m(-3) for the NHV and HV seasons, respectively. Considering that the maximum permissible BaPeq in ambient air is 1 ng m(-3), related to the increased carcinogenic risk, our data suggest that the level of human exposure to PAHs in cities surrounded by sugarcane crops where the burning process is used is cause for concern. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Insights from Studies with Oral Cleft Genes Suggest Associations between WNT-pathway Genes and Risk of Oral Cancer

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) accounts for more than 90% of the malignant neoplasms that arise in the mucosa of the upper aerodigestive tract. Recent studies of cleft lip/palate have shown the association of genes involved in cancer. WNT pathway genes have been associated with several types of cancer and recently with cleft lip/palate. To investigate if genes associated with cleft lip/palate were also associated with oral cancer, we genotyped 188 individuals with OSCC and 225 control individuals for markers in AXIN2, AXIN1, GSK3 beta, WNT3A, WNT5A, WNT8A, WNT11, WNT3, and WNT9B. Statistical analysis was performed with PLINK 1.06 software to test for differences in allele frequencies of each polymorphism between cases and controls. We found association of SNPs in GSK3B (p = 0.0008) and WNT11 (p = 0.03) with OSCC. We also found overtransmission of GSK3B haplotypes in OSCC cases. Expression analyses showed up-regulation of WNT3A, GSK3B, and AXIN1 and down-regulation of WNT11 in OSCC in comparison with control tissues (P < 0.001). Additional studies should focus on the identification of potentially functional variants in these genes as contributors to human clefting and oral cancer.

Cigarette smoking and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (Australia)

Objectives: We studied the association between cigarette smoking and ovarian cancer in a population-based case-control study. Methods: A total of 794 women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer who were aged 18-79 years and resident in one of three Australian states were interviewed, together with 855 controls aged 18-79 years selected at random from the electoral roll from the same states. Information was obtained about cigarette smoking and other factors including age, parity, oral contraceptive use, and reproductive factors. We estimated the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with cigarette smoking, accounting for histologic type, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors. Results: Women who had ever smoked cigarettes were more likely to develop ovarian cancer than women who had never smoked (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.9). Risk was greater for ovarian cancers of borderline malignancy (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-4.1) than for invasive tumors (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) and the histologic subtype most strongly associated overall was the mucinous subtype among both current smokers (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.8-5.7) and past smokers (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-3.9). Conclusions: These data extend recent findings and suggest that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, especially mucinous and borderline mucinous types. From a public health viewpoint, this is one of the few reports of a potentially avoidable risk factor for ovarian cancer.

Long-term risk stratification for survivors of acute coronary syndromes - Results from the long-term intervention with pravastatin in ischemic disease (LIPID) study

OBJECTIVES We developed a prognostic strategy for quantifying the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in survivors of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND Strategies for quantifying long-term risk of CHD events have generally been confined to primary prevention settings. The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study, which demonstrated that pravastatin reduces CHD events in ACS survivors with a broad range of cholesterol levels, enabled assessment of long-term prognosis in a secondary prevention setting. METHODS Based on outcomes in 8,557 patients in the LIPID study, a multivariate risk factor model was developed for prediction of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Prognostic indexes were developed based on the model, and low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups were defined by categorizing the prognostic indexes. RESULTS In addition to pravastatin treatment, the independently significant risk factors included: total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, gender, smoking status, qualifying ACS, prior coronary revascularization, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and prior stroke. Pravastatin reduced coronary event rates in each risk level, and the relative risk reduction did not vary significantly between risk levels. The predicted five-year coronary event rates ranged from 5% to 19% for those assigned pravastatin and from 6.4% to 23.6% fur those assigned placebo. CONCLUSIONS Long-term prognosis of ACS survivors varied substantially according to conventional risk factor profile. Pravastatin reduced coronary risk within all risk levels; however, absolute risk remained high in treated patients with unfavorable profiles. Our risk stratification strategy enables identification of ACS survivors who remain at very high risk despite statin therapy. CT Am Coil Cardiol 2001;38:56-63) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.