Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.

Birds : indicators of environmental repair in oil affected coastlines

Bird coastal communities were studied along Bribie Island and Moreton Island, two islands within Moreton Bay, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, using the point counts method. A total of 128 five-hundred metre radius area surveys and 81 beach drive surveys were conducted and observations made over four seasons. Bird species were identified, counted and recorded. The data was compared between the two islands and, between sites on each island as oil-spill affected sites to non-oil spill affected sites. Species such as waders, shorebirds, terns/gulls and raptors were identified as species at most risk from an oil spill and the data was selected to look mainly at these species. The data indicated that sites affected by the oil spill contained 50% less oil-affected species than sites not affected by the oil spill. Bribie Island held on average 5 species per site in the oil affected sites compared to 12 species in non-oil affected sites. This same trend was observed on Moreton Island which held 6 species compared to 14 species. Bird data will continue to be counted over several years to determine whether the observed data is a true reflection of the affects of an oil spill on the habitat of shorebirds.

Fecal indicators and bacterial pathogens in bottled water from Dhaka, Bangladesh

Forty-six bottled water samples representing 16 brands from Dhaka, Bangladesh were tested for the numbers of total coliforms, fecal indicator bacteria (i.e., thermotolerant Escherichia coli and Enterococcus spp.) and potential bacterial pathogens (i.e., Aeromonas hydrophil, Pseudomonas aeruginos, Salmonella spp., and Shigella spp.). Among the 16 brands tested, 14 (86%), ten (63%) and seven (44%) were positive for total coliforms, E. coil and Enterococcus spp., respectively. Additionally, a further nine (56%), eight (50%), six (37%), and four (25%) brands were PCR positive for A. hydrophila lip, P. aeruginosa ETA, Salmonella spp. invA, and Shigella spp. ipaH genes, respectively. The numbers of bacterial pathogens in bottled water samples ranged from 28 ± 12 to 600 ± 45 (A. hydrophila lip gene), 180 ± 40 to 900 ± 200 (Salmonella spp. invA gene), 180 ± 40 to 1,300 ± 400 (P. aeruginosa ETA gene) genomic units per L of water. Shigella spp. ipaH gene was not quantifiable. Discrepancies were observed in terms of the occurrence of fecal indicators and bacterial pathogens. No correlations were observed between fecal indicators numbers and presence/absence of A. hydrophila lip (p = 0.245), Salmonella spp. invA (p = 0.433), Shigella spp. ipaH gene (p = 0.078), and P. aeruginosa ETA (p = 0.059) genes. Our results suggest that microbiological quality of bottled waters sold in Dhaka, Bangladesh is highly variable. To protect public health, stringent quality control is recommended for the bottled water industry in Bangladesh. Key words: bottled water, fecal indicator bacteria, quantitative PCR, bacterial pathogens, public health risk.

Risk factors for impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory : a matched case-control study

Background: Side effects of the medications used for procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory are known to cause impaired respiratory function. Impaired respiratory function poses considerable risk to patient safety as it can lead to inadequate oxygenation. Having knowledge about the conditions that predict impaired respiratory function prior to the procedure would enable nurses to identify at-risk patients and selectively implement intensive respiratory monitoring. This would reduce the possibility of inadequate oxygenation occurring. Aim: To identify pre-procedure risk factors for impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Design: Retrospective matched case–control. Methods: 21 cases of impaired respiratory function were identified and matched to 113 controls from a consecutive cohort of patients over 18 years of age. Conditional logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for impaired respiratory function. Results: With each additional indicator of acute illness, case patients were nearly two times more likely than their controls to experience impaired respiratory function (OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.19–2.67; p = 0.005). Indicators of acute illness included emergency admission, being transferred from a critical care unit for the procedure or requiring respiratory or haemodynamic support in the lead up to the procedure. Conclusion: Several factors that predict the likelihood of impaired respiratory function were identified. The results from this study could be used to inform prospective studies investigating the effectiveness of interventions for impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory.

Urinary biomolecular indicators of exercise-induced over exertion injury

Poor health and injury represent major obstacles to the future economic security of Australia. The national economic cost of work-related injury is estimated at $57.5 billion p/a. Since exposure to high physical demands is a major risk factor for musculoskeletal injury, monitoring and managing such physical activity levels in workers is a potentially important injury prevention strategy. Current injury monitoring practices are inadequate for the provision of clinically valuable information about the tissue specific responses to physical exertion. Injury of various soft tissue structures can manifest over time through accumulation of micro-trauma. Such micro-trauma has a propensity to increase the risk of acute injuries to soft-tissue structures such as muscle or tendon. As such, the capacity to monitor biomarkers that result from the disruption of these tissues offers a means of assisting the pre-emptive management of subclinical injury prior to acute failure or for evaluation of recovery processes. Here we have adopted an in-vivo exercise induced muscle damage model allowing the application of laboratory controlled conditions to assist in uncovering biochemical indicators associated with soft-tissue trauma and recovery. Importantly, urine was utilised as the diagnostic medium since it is non-invasive to collect, more acceptable to workers and less costly to employers. Moreover, it is our hypothesis that exercise induced tissue degradation products enter the circulation and are subsequently filtered by the kidney and pass through to the urine. To test this hypothesis a range of metabolomic and proteomic discovery-phase techniques were used, along with targeted approaches. Several small molecules relating to tissue damage were identified along with a series of skeletal muscle-specific protein fragments resulting from exercise induced soft-tissue damage. Each of the potential biomolecular markers appeared to be temporally present within urine. Moreover, the regulation of abundance seemed to be associated with functional recovery following the injury. This discovery may have important clinical applications for monitoring of a variety of inflammatory myopathies as well as novel applications in monitoring of the musculoskeletal health status of workers, professional athletes and/or military personnel to reduce the onset of potentially debilitating musculoskeletal injuries within these professions.

Development and use of risk adjusted statistical process control tools for the monitoring and improvement of clinical outcomes in interventional cardiology

This thesis explored the development of statistical methods to support the monitoring and improvement in quality of treatment delivered to patients undergoing coronary angioplasty procedures. To achieve this goal, a suite of outcome measures was identified to characterise performance of the service, statistical tools were developed to monitor the various indicators and measures to strengthen governance processes were implemented and validated. Although this work focused on pursuit of these aims in the context of a an angioplasty service located at a single clinical site, development of the tools and techniques was undertaken mindful of the potential application to other clinical specialties and a wider, potentially national, scope.

Principal component and linkage analysis of cardiovascular risk traits in the Norfolk isolate

OBJECTIVE(S): An individual's risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) is influenced by genetic factors. This study focussed on mapping genetic loci for CVD-risk traits in a unique population isolate derived from Norfolk Island. METHODS: This investigation focussed on 377 individuals descended from the population founders. Principal component analysis was used to extract orthogonal components from 11 cardiovascular risk traits. Multipoint variance component methods were used to assess genome-wide linkage using SOLAR to the derived factors. A total of 285 of the 377 related individuals were informative for linkage analysis. RESULTS: A total of 4 principal components accounting for 83% of the total variance were derived. Principal component 1 was loaded with body size indicators; principal component 2 with body size, cholesterol and triglyceride levels; principal component 3 with the blood pressures; and principal component 4 with LDL-cholesterol and total cholesterol levels. Suggestive evidence of linkage for principal component 2 (h(2) = 0.35) was observed on chromosome 5q35 (LOD = 1.85; p = 0.0008). While peak regions on chromosome 10p11.2 (LOD = 1.27; p = 0.005) and 12q13 (LOD = 1.63; p = 0.003) were observed to segregate with principal components 1 (h(2) = 0.33) and 4 (h(2) = 0.42), respectively. CONCLUSION(S): This study investigated a number of CVD risk traits in a unique isolated population. Findings support the clustering of CVD risk traits and provide interesting evidence of a region on chromosome 5q35 segregating with weight, waist circumference, HDL-c and total triglyceride levels.

Phenotypical characterisation of the isolated Norfolk Island population focusing on epidemiological indicators of cardiovascular disease

Objectives Only 193 people from Pitcairn Island, all descended from 9 ‘Bounty’ mutineers and 12 Tahitian women, moved to the uninhabited Norfolk Island in 1856. Our objective was to assess the population of Norfolk Island, several thousand km off the eastern coast of Australia, as a genetic isolate of potential use for cardiovascular disease (CVD) gene mapping. Methods A total of 602 participants, approximately two thirds of the island’s present adult population, were characterized for a panel of CVD risk factors. Statistical power and heritability were calculated. Results Norfolk Islander’s possess an increased prevalence of hypertension, obesity and multiple CVD risk factors when compared to outbred Caucasian populations. 64% of the study participants were descendents of the island’s original founder population. Triglycerides, cholesterol, and blood pressures all had heritabilities above 0.2. Conclusions The Norfolk land population is a potentially useful genetic isolate for gene mapping studies aimed at identifying CVD risk factor quantitative trait loci (QTL).

Genetic polymorphisms in DPF3 associated with risk of breast cancer and lymph node metastases

Background Several studies have identified rare genetic variations responsible for many cases of familial breast cancer but their contribution to total breast cancer incidence is relatively small. More common genetic variations with low penetrance have been postulated to account for a higher proportion of the population risk of breast cancer. Methods and Results In an effort to identify genes that influence non-familial breast cancer risk, we tested over 25,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located within approximately 14,000 genes in a large-scale case-control study in 254 German women with breast cancer and 268 age-matched women without malignant disease. We identified a marker on chromosome 14q24.3-q31.1 that was marginally associated with breast cancer status (OR = 1.5, P = 0.07). Genotypes for this SNP were also significantly associated with indicators of breast cancer severity, including presence of lymph node metastases ( P = 0.006) and earlier age of onset ( P = 0.01). The association with breast cancer status was replicated in two independent samples (OR = 1.35, P = 0.05). High-density association fine mapping showed that the association spanned about 80 kb of the zinc-finger gene DPF3 (also known as CERD4 ). One SNP in intron 1 was found to be more strongly associated with breast cancer status in all three sample collections (OR = 1.6, P = 0.003) as well as with increased lymph node metastases ( P = 0.01) and tumor size ( P = 0.01). Conclusion Polymorphisms in the 5' region of DPF3 were associated with increased risk of breast cancer development, lymph node metastases, age of onset, and tumor size in women of European ancestry. This large-scale association study suggests that genetic variation in DPF3 contributes to breast cancer susceptibility and severity.

Surrogate indicators for assessing community resilience

The importance of community resilience to natural disasters is being increasingly recognised. This paper presents an approach for the development of surrogate indicators for comprehensive assessment of community resilience, which is crucial in the context of predicted increase in natural disasters resulting from extreme weather events due to climate change. The use of surrogate indicators is advocated because a comprehensive assessment of community resilience across various thematic areas and associated key areas requires the measurement of a large number of resilience indicators which is not always feasible due to time and resource constraints, To overcome this, researchers tend to use secondary data sources, which are easily available but not always reliable. This highlights the need for surrogate indicators that are easy to measure from reliable primary data sources and are adequate to capture the resilience of a community. Firstly, the paper discusses the two approaches for defining and conceptualising community resilience and the need to account for the complex interrelationships between thematic areas, key areas and resilience indicators and their implications for research. Secondly, a comprehensive framework for the assessment of community resilience is proposed and the difficulties associated with the measurement of overall resilience of the community are discussed. Thirdly, the paper explains a two-step approach to develop surrogate indicators highlighting the necessity and challenges associated with it. Finally, the proposed approach is elaborated with a simple example for better understanding.

Queensland’s high risk foot database : tracking the length and width of Queensland’s foot ulcers

Background Foot ulcers are a leading cause of avoidable hospital admissions and lower extremity amputations. However, large clinical studies describing foot ulcer presentations in the ambulatory setting are limited. The aim of this descriptive observational paper is to report the characteristics of ambulatory foot ulcer patients managed across 13 of 17 Queensland Health & Hospital Services. Methods Data on all foot ulcer patients registered with a Queensland High Risk Foot Form (QHRFF) was collected at their first consult in 2012. Data is automatically extracted from each QHRFF into a Queensland high risk foot database. Descriptive statistics display age, sex, ulcer types and co-morbidities. Statewide clinical indicators of foot ulcer management are also reported. Results Overall, 2,034 people presented with a foot ulcer in 2012. Mean age was 63(±14) years and 67.8% were male. Co-morbidities included 85% had diabetes, 49.7% hypertension, 39.2% dyslipidaemia, 25.6% cardiovascular disease, 13.7% kidney disease and 12.2% smoking. Foot ulcer types included 51.6% neuropathic, 17.8% neuro-ischaemic, 7.2% ischaemic, 6.6% post-surgical and 16.8% other; whilst 31% were infected. Clinical indicator results revealed 98% had their wound categorised, 51% received non-removable offloading, median ulcer healing time was 6-weeks and 37% had ulcer recurrence. Conclusion This paper details the largest foot ulcer database reported in Australia. People presenting with foot ulcers appear predominantly older, male with several co-morbidities. Encouragingly it appears most patients are receiving best practice care. These results may be a factor in the significant reduction of Queensland diabetes foot-related hospitalisations and amputations recently reported.

The effectiveness of an intervention in reducing risk of dioxin exposure in Da Nang : changes in community knowledge, attitudes and prevention practices after 2.5 years

Introduction Environmental and biological samples taken around Da Nang Air Base have shown elevated levels of dioxin over many years [1-3]. A pre-intervention knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey (2009), a risk reduction program (2010) and a post intervention KAP survey (2011) were undertaken in four wards surrounding Danang Airbase. A follow-up evaluation was undertaken in 2013. Methods A KAP survey was implemented among 400 randomly selected food handlers. Eleven indepth interviews and four focus group discussions were also undertaken. Results The knowledge of respondents remained positive and/or improved at 2.5 years follow-up. There were no significant differences in attitudes toward preventing dioxin exposure across surveys; most respondents were positive in all three surveys. An increase in households (69.5%) undertaking measures to prevent exposure was observed, which was higher than in the pre-intervention survey (39.6%) and post- intervention survey (60.4%) (χ2 = 95.6; p < 0.001). The proportion of respondents practicing appropriate preventive measures was also significantly improved. Conclusions Despite most of the intervention program’s activities ceasing in 2010, the risk reduction program has resulted in positive outcomes over the longer-term, with many knowledge and attitude measures remaining stable or imporving. Some KAP indicators decreased, but these KAP indicators were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels.

Risk factors for delayed healing in venous leg ulcers : a review of the literature

Background Chronic leg ulcers, remaining unhealed after 4–6 weeks, affect 1-3% of the population, with treatment costly and health service resource intensive. Venous disease contributes to approximately 70% of all chronic leg ulcers and these ulcers are often associated with pain, reduced mobility and a decreased quality of life. Despite evidence-based care, 30% of these ulcers are unlikely to heal within a 24-week period and therefore the recognition and identification of risk factors for delayed healing of venous leg ulcers would be beneficial. Aim To review the available evidence on risk factors for delayed healing of venous leg ulcers. Methods: A review of the literature in regard to risk factors for delayed healing in venous leg ulcers was conducted from January 2000 to December 2013. Evidence was sourced through searches of relevant databases and websites for resources addressing risk factors for delayed healing in venous leg ulcers specifically. Results Twenty-seven studies, of mostly low-level evidence (Level III and IV), identified risk factors associated with delayed healing. Risk factors that were consistently identified included: larger ulcer area, longer ulcer duration, a previous history of ulceration, venous abnormalities and lack of high compression. Additional potential predictors with inconsistent or varying evidence to support their influence on delayed healing of venous leg ulcers included decreased mobility and/or ankle range of movement, poor nutrition and increased age. Discussion Findings from this review indicate that a number of physiological risk factors are asso- ciated with delayed healing in venous leg ulcers and that social and/or psychological risk factors should also be considered and examined further. Conclusion The findings from this review can assist health professionals to identify prognostic indicators or risk factors significantly associated with delayed healing in venous leg ulcers. This will facilitate realistic outcome planning and inform implementation of appropriate early strategies to promote healing.

Process quality indicators targeting cognitive impairment to support quality of care for older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments

Objectives The objective of this study was to develop process quality indicators (PQIs) to support the improvement of care services for older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments (ED). Methods A structured research approach was taken for the development of PQIs for the care of older people with cognitive impairment in EDs, including combining available evidence with expert opinion (phase 1), a field study (phase 2), and formal voting (phase 3). A systematic review of the literature identified ED processes targeting the specific care needs of older people with cognitive impairment. Existing relevant PQIs were also included. By integrating the scientific evidence and clinical expertise, new PQIs were drafted and, along with the existing PQIs, extensively discussed by an advisory panel. These indicators were field tested in eight hospitals using a cohort of older persons aged 70 years and older. After analysis of the field study data (indicator prevalence, variability across sites), in a second meeting, the advisory panel further defined the PQIs. The advisory panel formally voted for selection of those PQIs that were most appropriate for care evaluation. Results In addition to seven previously published PQIs relevant to the care of older persons, 15 new indicators were created. These 22 PQIs were then field tested. PQIs designed specifically for the older ED population with cognitive impairment were only scored for patients with identified cognitive impairment. Following formal voting, a total of 11 PQIs were included in the set. These PQIs targeted cognitive screening, delirium screening, delirium risk assessment, evaluation of acute change in mental status, delirium etiology, proxy notification, collateral history, involvement of a nominated support person, pain assessment, postdischarge follow-up, and ED length of stay. Conclusions This article presents a set of PQIs for the evaluation of the care for older people with cognitive impairment in EDs. The variation in indicator triggering across different ED sites suggests that there are opportunities for quality improvement in care for this vulnerable group. Applied PQIs will identify an emergency services' implementation of care strategies for cognitively impaired older ED patients. Awareness of the PQI triggers at an ED level enables implementation of targeted interventions to improve any suboptimal processes of care. Further validation and utility of the indicators in a wider population is now indicated.

Structural quality indicators to support quality of care for older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments

Objectives The purpose of this study was to identify the structural quality of care domains and to establish a set of structural quality indicators (SQIs) for the assessment of care of older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments (EDs). Methods A structured approach to SQI development was undertaken including: 1) a comprehensive search of peer-reviewed and gray literature focusing on identification of evidence-based interventions targeting structure of care of older patients with cognitive impairment and existing SQIs; 2) a consultative process engaging experts in the care of older people and epidemiologic methods (i.e., advisory panel) leading to development of a draft set of SQIs; 3) field testing of drafted SQIs in eight EDs, leading to refinement of the SQI set, and; 4) an independent voting process among the panelists for SQI inclusion in a final set, using preestablished inclusion and exclusion criteria. Results At the conclusion of the process, five SQIs targeting the management of older ED patients with cognitive impairment were developed: 1) the ED has a policy outlining the management of older people with cognitive impairment during the ED episode of care; 2) the ED has a policy outlining issues relevant to carers of older people with cognitive impairment, encompassing the need to include the (family) carer in the ED episode of care; 3) the ED has a policy outlining the assessment and management of behavioral symptoms, with specific reference to older people with cognitive impairment; 4) the ED has a policy outlining delirium prevention strategies, including the assessment of patients' delirium risk factors, and; 5) the ED has a policy outlining pain assessment and management for older people with cognitive impairment. Conclusions This article presents a set of SQIs for the evaluation of performance in caring for older people with cognitive impairment in EDs.