The first five years of the EU Impact Assessment system: a risk economics perspective on gaps between rationale and practice

In 2003 the European Commission started using Impact Assessment (IA) as the main empirical basis for its major policy proposals. The aim was to systematically assess ex ante the economic, social and environmental impacts of EU policy proposals. In parallel, research proliferated in search for theoretical grounds for IAs and in an attempt to evaluate empirically the performance of the first sets of IAs produced by the European Commission. This paper combines conceptual and evaluative studies carried out in the first five years of EU IAs. It concludes that the great discrepancy between rationale and practice calls for a different theoretical focus and a higher emphasis on evaluating empirically crucial risk economics aspects of IAs, such as the value of statistical life, price of carbon, the integration of macroeconomic modelling and scenario analysis.

Impact of the quantity and flavonoid content of fruits and vegetables on markers of intake in adults with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease: the FLAVURS Trial

Purpose Limited robust randomised controlled trials investigating fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake in people at risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) exist. We aimed to design and validate a dietary strategy of increasing flavonoid-rich versus flavonoid-poor F&V consumption on nutrient biomarker profile. Methods A parallel, randomised, controlled, dose–response dietary intervention study. Participants with a CVD relative risk of 1.5 assessed by risk scores were randomly assigned to one of the 3 groups: habitual (control, CT), high-flavonoid (HF) or low-flavonoid (LF) diets. While the CT group (n = 57) consumed their habitual diet throughout, the HF (n = 58) and LF (n = 59) groups sequentially increased their daily F&V intake by an additional 2, 4 and 6 portions for 6-week periods during the 18-week study. Results Compliance to target numbers and types of F&V was broadly met and verified by dietary records, and plasma and urinary biomarkers. Mean (±SEM) number of F&V portions/day consumed by the HF and LF groups at baseline (3.8 ± 0.3 and 3.4 ± 0.3), 6 weeks (6.3 ± 0.4 and 5.8 ± 0.3), 12 weeks (7.0 ± 0.3 and 6.8 ± 0.3) and 18 weeks (7.6 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.4), respectively, was similar at baseline yet higher than the CT group (3.9 ± 0.3, 4.3 ± 0.3, 4.6 ± 0.4, 4.5 ± 0.3) (P = 0.015). There was a dose-dependent increase in dietary and urinary flavonoids in the HF group, with no change in other groups (P = 0.0001). Significantly higher dietary intakes of folate (P = 0.035), non-starch polysaccharides (P = 0.001), vitamin C (P = 0.0001) and carotenoids (P = 0.0001) were observed in both intervention groups compared with CT, which were broadly supported by nutrient biomarker analysis. Conclusions The success of improving nutrient profile by active encouragement of F&V intake in an intervention study implies the need for a more hands-on public health approach.

The impact of substituting SFA in dairy products with MUFA or PUFA on CVD risk: evidence from human intervention studies

With the substantial economic and social burden of CVD, the need to modify diet and lifestyle factors to reduce risk has become increasingly important. Milk and dairy products, being one of the main contributors to SFA intake in the UK, are a potential target for dietary SFA reduction. Supplementation of the dairy cow's diet with a source of MUFA or PUFA may have beneficial effects on consumers' CVD risk by partially replacing milk SFA, thus reducing entry of SFA into the food chain. A total of nine chronic human intervention studies have used dairy products, modified through bovine feeding, to establish their effect on CVD risk markers. Of these studies, the majority utilised modified butter as their primary test product and used changes in blood cholesterol concentrations as their main risk marker. Of the eight studies that measured blood cholesterol, four reported a significant reduction in total and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) following chronic consumption of modified milk and dairy products. Data from one study suggested that a significant reduction in LDL-C could be achieved in both the healthy and hypercholesterolaemic population. Thus, evidence from these studies suggests that consumption of milk and dairy products with modified fatty acid composition, compared with milk and dairy products of typical milk fat composition, may be beneficial to CVD risk in healthy and hypercholesterolaemic individuals. However, current evidence is insufficient and further work is needed to investigate the complex role of milk and cheese in CVD risk and explore the use of novel markers of CVD risk.

Obesity and body fat classification in the metabolic syndrome: impact on cardiometabolic risk metabotype

Obesity is a key factor in the development of the metabolic syndrome (MetS), which is associated with increased cardiometabolic risk. We investigated whether obesity classification by body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage (BF%) influences cardiometabolic profile and dietary responsiveness in 486 MetS subjects (LIPGENE dietary intervention study). Anthropometric measures, markers of inflammation and glucose metabolism, lipid profiles, adhesion molecules and haemostatic factors were determined at baseline and after 12 weeks of 4 dietary interventions (high saturated fat (SFA), high monounsaturated fat (MUFA) and 2 low fat high complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diets, 1 supplemented with long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFAs)). 39% and 87% of subjects classified as normal and overweight by BMI were obese according to their BF%. Individuals classified as obese by BMI (± 30 kg/m2) and BF% (± 25% (men) and ± 35% (women)) (OO, n = 284) had larger waist and hip measurements, higher BMI and were heavier (P < 0.001) than those classified as non-obese by BMI but obese by BF% (NOO, n = 92). OO individuals displayed a more pro-inflammatory (higher C reactive protein (CRP) and leptin), pro-thrombotic (higher plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1)), pro-atherogenic (higher leptin/adiponectin ratio) and more insulin resistant (higher HOMA-IR) metabolic profile relative to the NOO group (P < 0.001). Interestingly, tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) concentrations were lower post-intervention in NOO individuals compared to OO subjects (P < 0.001). In conclusion, assessing BF% and BMI as part of a metabotype may help identify individuals at greater cardiometabolic risk than BMI alone.

Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets.

Improving mood with psychoanalytic and cognitive therapies (IMPACT): a pragmatic effectiveness superiority trial to investigate whether specialised psychological treatment reduces the risk for relapse in adolescents with moderate to severe unipolar depression: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Up to 70% of adolescents with moderate to severe unipolar major depression respond to psychological treatment plus Fluoxetine (20-50 mg) with symptom reduction and improved social function reported by 24 weeks after beginning treatment. Around 20% of non responders appear treatment resistant and 30% of responders relapse within 2 years. The specific efficacy of different psychological therapies and the moderators and mediators that influence risk for relapse are unclear. The cost-effectiveness and safety of psychological treatments remain poorly evaluated. Methods/Design Improving Mood with Psychoanalytic and Cognitive Therapies, the IMPACT Study, will determine whether Cognitive Behavioural Therapy or Short Term Psychoanalytic Therapy is superior in reducing relapse compared with Specialist Clinical Care. The study is a multicentre pragmatic effectiveness superiority randomised clinical trial: Cognitive Behavioural Therapy consists of 20 sessions over 30 weeks, Short Term Psychoanalytic Psychotherapy 30 sessions over 30 weeks and Specialist Clinical Care 12 sessions over 20 weeks. We will recruit 540 patients with 180 randomised to each arm. Patients will be reassessed at 6, 12, 36, 52 and 86 weeks. Methodological aspects of the study are systematic recruitment, explicit inclusion criteria, reliability checks of assessments with control for rater shift, research assessors independent of treatment team and blind to randomization, analysis by intention to treat, data management using remote data entry, measures of quality assurance, advanced statistical analysis, manualised treatment protocols, checks of adherence and competence of therapists and assessment of cost-effectiveness. We will also determine whether time to recovery and/or relapse are moderated by variations in brain structure and function and selected genetic and hormone biomarkers taken at entry. Discussion The objective of this clinical trial is to determine whether there are specific effects of specialist psychotherapy that reduce relapse in unipolar major depression in adolescents and thereby costs of treatment to society. We also anticipate being able to utilise psychotherapy experience, neuroimaging, genetic and hormone measures to reveal what techniques and their protocols may work best for which patients.

The impact of prior preeclampsia on the risk of superimposed preeclampsia and other adverse pregnancy outcomes in patients with chronic hypertension

OBJECTIVE: We sought to compare the rates of superimposed preeclampsia and adverse outcomes in women with chronic hypertension with or without prior preeclampsia.STUDY DESIGN: We conducted secondary analysis of 369 women with chronic hypertension (104 with prior preeclampsia) enrolled at 12-19 weeks as part of a multisite trial of antioxidants to prevent preeclampsia (no reduction was found). Outcome measures were rates of superimposed preeclampsia and other adverse perinatal outcomes.RESULTS: Prepregnancy body mass index, blood pressure, and smoking status at enrollment were similar between groups. The rates of superimposed preeclampsia (17.3% vs 17.7%), abruptio placentae (1.0% vs 3.1%), perinatal death (6.7% vs 8.7%), and small for gestational age (18.4% vs 14.3%) were similar between groups, but preterm delivery <37 weeks was higher in the prior preeclampsia group (36.9% vs 27.1%; adjusted risk ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.03; P = .032).CONCLUSION: In women with chronic hypertension, a history of preeclampsia does not increase the rate of superimposed preeclampsia, but is associated with an increased rate of delivery at <37 weeks.

Independent impact of glycemia ad blood pressure in albuminuria on high-risk subjects for metabolic syndrome

Background: Microalbuminuria may reflect diffuse endothelial damage. Considering that diabetes and hypertension cause vasculopathy, we investigated associations of albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) with plasma glucose and blood pressure levels in high-risk subjects for metabolic syndrome. Methods: A sample of 519 (246 men) Japanese-Brazilians (aged 60 ± 11 years), who participated in a population-based study, had their ACR determined in a morning urine specimen. Backward models of multiple linear regression were created for each gender including log-transformed values of ACR as dependent variable; an interaction term between diabetes and hypertension was included. Results: Macroalbuminuria was found in 18 subjects. ACR mean values for subjects with normal glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glycemia, impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes were 9.9 ± 6.0, 19.0 ± 35.4, 20.7 ± 35.4, and 33.9 ± 55.0 mg/g, respectively. Diabetic subjects showed higher ACR than the others (p < 0.05). An increase in the proportion of albuminuric subjects was observed as glucose metabolism deteriorated (4.9, 17.0, 23.0 and 36.0%). Stratifying into 4 groups according to postchallenge glycemia (< 7.8 mmol/l, n = 9 1; ≥ 7.8 mmol/l, n = 4 10) and hypertension, hypertensive and glucose-intolerant subgroups showed higher ACR values. ACR was associated with gender, waist circumference, blood pressure, plasma glucose and triglyceride (p < 0.05); albuminuric subjects had significantly higher levels of such variables than the normoalbuminuric ones. In the final models of linear regression, systolic blood pressure and 2-hour glycemia were shown to be independent predictors of ACR for both genders (p < 0.05). In men, also waist was independently associated with ACR. No interaction was detected between diabetes and hypertension. Conclusions: These findings suggest that both glucose intolerance and hypertension could have independent but not synergistic effects on endothelial function - reflected by albumin loss in urine. Such hypothesis needs to be confirmed in prospective studies. © 2004 Dustri-Verlag Dr. K. Feistle.

In Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction, the Impact of Hyperglycemia as a Risk Factor for Mortality Is Not Homogeneous Across Age-Groups

OBJECTIVE To assess the impact of hyperglycemia in different age-groups of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AM I). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 2,027 patients with AMI were categorized into one of five age-groups: <50 years (n = 301), >= 50 and <60 (n = 477),>= 60 and <70 (n = 545), >= 70 and <80 (n = 495), and years (n = 209). Hyperglycemia was defined as initial glucose >= 115 mg/dL. RESULTS The adjusted odds ratios for hyperglycemia predicting hospital mortality in groups 1-5 were, respectively, 7.57 (P = 0.004), 3.21 (P 0.046), 3.50 (P = 0.003), 3.20 (P < 0.001.), and 2.16 (P = 0.021). The adjusted P values for correlation between glucose level (as a continuous variable) and mortality were 0.007, <0.001, 0.043, <0.001, and 0.064. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were 0.785, 0.709, 0.657, 0.648, and 0.613. The AUC in group 1 was significantly higher than those in groups 3-5. CONCLUSIONS The impact of hyperglycemia as a risk factor for hospital mortality in AMI is more pronounced in younger patients.

The impact of the CACNA1C risk allele on limbic structures and facial emotions recognition in bipolar disorder subjects and healthy controls

Introduction: Impairments in facial emotion recognition (PER) have been reported in bipolar disorder (BD) during all mood states. FER has been the focus of functional magnetic resonance imaging studies evaluating differential activation of limbic regions. Recently, the alpha 1-C subunit of the L-type voltage-gated calcium channel (CACNA1C) gene has been described as a risk gene for BD and its Met allele found to increase CACNA1C mRNA expression. In healthy controls, the CACNA1C risk (Met) allele has been reported to increase limbic system activation during emotional stimuli and also to impact on cognitive function. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of CACNA1C genotype on FER scores and limbic system morphology in subjects with BD and healthy controls. Material and methods: Thirty-nine euthymic BD I subjects and 40 healthy controls were submitted to a PER recognition test battery and genotyped for CACNA1C. Subjects were also examined with a 3D 3-Tesla structural imaging protocol. Results: The CACNA1C risk allele for BD was associated to FER impairment in BD, while in controls nothing was observed. The CACNA1C genotype did not impact on amygdala or hippocampus volume neither in BD nor controls. Limitations: Sample size. Conclusion: The present findings suggest that a polymorphism in calcium channels interferes FER phenotype exclusively in BD and doesn't interfere on limbic structures morphology. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors and Survival Impact of Primary Graft Dysfunction After Lung Transplantation in a Single Institution

Background. Lung transplantation has become a standard procedure for some end-stage lung diseases, but primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is an inherent problem that impacts early and late outcomes. The aim of this study was to define the incidence, risk factors, and impact of mechanical ventilation time on mortality rates among a retrospective cohort of lung transplantations performed in a single institution. Methods. We performed a retrospective study of 118 lung transplantations performed between January 2003 and July 2010. The most severe form of PGD (grade III) as defined at 48 and 72 hours was examined for risk factors by multivariable logistic regression models using donor, recipient, and transplant variables. Results. The overall incidence of PGD at 48 hours was 19.8%, and 15.4% at 72 hours. According multivariate analysis, risk factors associated with PGD were donor smoking history for 48 hours (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.236-18.896; P = .022) and older donors for 72 hours (adjusted OR, 1.046; 95% CI, 0.997-1.098; P = .022). The operative mortality was 52.9% among patients with PGD versus 20.3% at 48 hours (P = .012). At 72 hours, the mortality rate was 58.3% versus 21.2% (P = .013). The 90-days mortality was also higher among patients with PGD. The mechanical ventilation time was longer in patients with PGD III at 48 hours namely, a mean time of 72 versus 24 hours (P = .001). When PGD was defined at 72 hours, the mean ventilation time was even longer, namely 151 versus 24 hours (P < .001). The mean overall survival for patients who developed PGD at 48 hours was 490.9 versus 1665.5 days for subjects without PGD (P = .001). Considering PGD only at 72 hours, the mean survival was 177.7 days for the PGD group and 1628.9 days for the other patients (P < .001). Conclusion. PGD showed an important impacts on operative and 90-day mortality rates, mechanical ventilation time, and overall survival among lung transplant patients. PGD at 72 hours was a better predictor of lung transplant outcomes than at 48 hours. The use of donors with a smoking history or of advanced age were risk factors for the development of PGD.

Healthcare-associated infection in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation patients: risk factors and impact on outcome

Objective: The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of and risk factors for healthcare-associated infections (HAI) among hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients, and the impact of such infections on mortality during hospitalization. Methods: We conducted a 9-year (2001-2009) retrospective cohort study including patients submitted to HSCT at a reference center in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The incidence of HAI was calculated using days of neutropenia as the denominator. Data were analyzed using EpiInfo 3.5.1. Results: Over the 9-year period there were 429 neutropenic HSCT patients, with a total of 6816 days of neutropenia. Bloodstream infections (BSI) were the most frequent infection, presenting in 80 (18.6%) patients, with an incidence of 11.7 per 1000 days of neutropenia. Most bacteremia was due to Gram-negative bacteria: 43 (53.8%) cases were caused by Gram-negative species, while 33 (41.2%) were caused by Gram-positive species, and four (5%) by fungal species. Independent risk factors associated with HAI were prolonged neutropenia (odds ratio (OR) 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.10) and duration of fever (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.30). Risk factors associated with death in multivariate analyses were age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.43), being submitted to an allogeneic transplant (OR 3.08, 95% CI 1.68-5.56), a microbiologically documented infection (OR 2.96, 95% CI 1.87-4.6), invasive aspergillosis disease (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.1-4.3), and acute leukemias (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.3-3.6). Conclusions: BSI was the most frequent HAI, and there was a predominance of Gram-negative microorganisms. Independent risk factors associated with HAI were duration of neutropenia and fever, and the risk factors for a poor outcome were older age, type of transplant (allogeneic), the presence of a microbiologically documented infection, invasive aspergillosis, and acute leukemia. Further prospective studies with larger numbers of patients may confirm the role of these risk factors for a poor clinical outcome and death in this transplant population. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.

Impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms and of clinical risk factors on new-onset diabetes mellitus in HIV-infected individuals

Background. Metabolic complications, including cardiovascular events and diabetes mellitus (DM), are a major long-term concern in human immunodeficienc virus (HIV)-infected individuals. Recent genome-wide association studies have reliably associated multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to DM in the general population. Methods. We evaluated the contribution of 22 SNPs identifie in genome-wide association studies and of longitudinally measured clinical factors to DM. We genotyped all 94 white participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who developed DM from 1 January 1999 through 31 August 2009 and 550 participants without DM. Analyses were based on 6054 person-years of follow-up and 13,922 measurements of plasma glucose. Results. The contribution to DM risk explained by SNPs (14% of DM variability) was larger than the contribution to DM risk explained by current or cumulative exposure to different antiretroviral therapy combinations (3% of DM variability). Participants with the most unfavorable genetic score (representing 12% and 19% of the study population, respectively, when applying 2 different genetic scores) had incidence rate ratios for DM of 3.80 (95% confidenc interval [CI], 2.05–7.06) and 2.74 (95% CI, 1.53–4.88), respectively, compared with participants with a favorable genetic score. However, addition of genetic data to clinical risk factors that included body mass index only slightly improved DM prediction. Conclusions. In white HIV-infected persons treated with antiretroviral therapy, the DM effect of genetic variants was larger than the potential toxic effects of antiretroviral therapy. SNPs contributed significantl to DM risk, but their addition to a clinical model improved DM prediction only slightly, similar to studies in the general population.

Impact of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with stable atherothrombosis or multiple risk factors

We aimed to assess whether the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events in stable patients with established atherothrombosis or multiple risk factors.

Impact of carotid plaque screening on smoking cessation and other cardiovascular risk factors: a randomized controlled trial

Screening of peripheral atherosclerosis is increasingly used, but few trials have examined its clinical impact. We aimed to assess whether carotid plaque screening helps smokers to improve their health behaviors and cardiovascular risk factors.