MCMC Analysis Of Classical Time Series Algorithms

Identification of order of an Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) by the usual graphical method is subjective. Hence, there is a need of developing a technique to identify the order without employing the graphical investigation of series autocorrelations. To avoid subjectivity, this thesis focuses on determining the order of the Autoregressive Moving Average Model using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). The RJMCMC selects the model from a set of the models suggested by better fitting, standard deviation errors and the frequency of accepted data. Together with deep analysis of the classical Box-Jenkins modeling methodology the integration with MCMC algorithms has been focused through parameter estimation and model fitting of ARMA models. This helps to verify how well the MCMC algorithms can treat the ARMA models, by comparing the results with graphical method. It has been seen that the MCMC produced better results than the classical time series approach.

Spectroscopic investigation of the interactions between emeraldine base polyaniline and Eu(III) ions

The interactions of emeraldine base form of polyaniline (EB-PANI) and Eu(III) ions in 1-methyl-2-pyrrolidinone (NMP) solution and in films have been investigated by UV-vis-NIR, resonance Raman. luminescence and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopies. These spectroscopic techniques allowed to characterize quinone and semiquinone segments in the polymeric chains. and the oxidation state of europium ions in Eu-PANI samples. For high values of Eu(III)/N molar ratio (24/1) the presence of a weak polaronic absorption band at 980 nm in UV-vis-NIR spectrum and the observation of bands at 1330 and 1378 (nu(center dot)(C-N+)) cm(-1) due to emeraldine salt in the Raman spectrum at 1064 nm indicate a low doping degree. Oxidation of EB-PANI to pernigraniline base (PB-PANI) occurs in diluted solutions. The experimental data showed that the solvent plays an important role on the nature of formed species. The narrow EPR signal at g = 2.006 (line width 8G) confirms the presence of PANI radical cations in Eu-PANI film. The absence of broad signal characteristic of Eu(II) in EPR spectrum suggested that europium ions are primarily at Eu(III) oxidation state. The luminescence spectra of Eu-PANI film presented emission bands at 405 and 418 nm assigned to PANI moieties and bands at 594,615 and 701 nm assigned to (5)D(0) -> (7)F(J) (J = 1, 2 and 4, respectively) transitions of Eu(III). EPR and photoluminescence data confirm that europium ions are mainly in Eu(III) oxidation state in Eu(III)/PANI films. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS IN A CAPTIVE CRAB-EATING FOX CERDOCYON THOUS

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo comparativo dos métodos diagnósticos para Leishmaniose Visceral em cães oriundos de Ilha Solteira, SP

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Electrochemistry of organometallic compounds. Part IV. Oxidations of benzylic derivatives and p-substituted benzylic derivatives of bis(dimethylglyoximato) and bis(salicylaldehyde)o-phenylenediimine cobalt(III) in dimethylformamide

The electrochemical oxidation of some p-substituted benzylic derivatives of Co(III) dimethylglyoximato and Co(III)bis(salicylaldehydc)o-phenylenediimine in dimethylformamide. 0.2 M in tetraethyammonium perchlorate, on a platinum electrode, at several temperatures, is described as an ECE type, the first electrochemical step being a quasi-reversible one-electron charge transfer at room temperature. At temperatures around -20°C, or lower, the influence of the irreversible chemical decomposition of the oxidized species, via a solvent or other nucleophilic-assisted reaction, is negligible. It is suggested that at low temperatures the oxidation to the formally CoIV-R species is followed by an isomerization reaction in which this complex is partially transformed in a CoIII-(R) species or a s π-complex which undergoes an electroreduction at less positive potentials than those corresponding to the reduction of the CoIV-R species. © 1982.

The electrochemistry of ferrocene in non-aqueous solvents

the electrochemical oxidation of ferrocene on Pt in dimethylformamide, ethanol, propylene carbonate and their aqueous solutions was studied at 25°C. The concentration of the supporting electrolyte, NaClO4, was varied from 0.1 to 0.5 M. The results show that the electrode process may be described as a quasi-reversible one-electron charge transfer, followed by slow decomposition of the oxidized species. © 1987.

Herstellung, Struktur und Polymerisation neuer Cyclodextrin-komplexierter (Meth)acrylate und radikalische Polymerisation neuer Monomere zur Steuerung rheologischer Eigenschaften

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden Polymerisationseigenschaften hydrophober Monomere untersucht, die mittels methyliertem b-Cyclodextrin (me-b-CD) als Wirt/Gast-Komplexe homogen in die wäßrige Phase überführt wurden. Mit diesem Verfahren steht eine neue Variante der Polymerisation hydrophober Monomere in Wasser zur Verfügung.Die Charakterisierung der Monomer/CD-Komplexe erfolgte mittels Röntgenstrukturanalyse und 1H-NMR-Spektroskopie: steigende Größe der Gast-Komponente erhöht die Wechselwirkungen zum CD. Zur Untersuchung der Polymerisationsreaktion wurden Copolymerisationsparameter von Komplexen und Übertragungskonstanten von Mercaptoverbindungen bei Polymerisationen von Komplexen ermittelt. In Abhängigkeit der Größe der Gastkomponente und ihrer Wasserlöslichkeit resultieren unterschiedliche Reaktivitäten relativ zu Polymerisationen unkomplexierter Reaktanden in organisch-wäßriger Lösung. Außerdem wurden Copolymerisationen zwischen hydrophoben, me-b-CD-komplexierten Monomeren und wasserlöslichen Monomeren untersucht wie z.B. N-Isopropylacrylamid oder Natrium-4-(acrylamido)phenyldiazosulfonat, dessen Copolymerisation mit Styrol bislang nicht möglich war. Eine weitere Aufgabe war die Herstellung wasserstoffbrückenbindender Polymere. Hierzu wurden assoziationsfähige Monomere hergestellt und mit Methylmethacrylat copolymerisiert. Lösungen der Copolymere wurden rheologisch untersucht. Die Lösungen besitzen hohe Nullscherviskositäten bei 20°C und sind strukturviskos. Die Untersuchung der Temperaturabhängigkeit der Nullscherviskositäten ergab insbesondere bei der Lösung von Poly(N-(methacryl-2-ethyl)-N'-(3-amino-(1,2,4-triazol-2-yl))harnstoff-co-methylmethacrylat) bei niedrigen Temperaturen eine hohe Fließaktivierungsenergie, die zu höheren Temperaturen sank. Die komplexe Viskosität dieser Lösung fiel mit zunehmender Temperatur zunächst ab, stieg dann wieder an und sank erneut. Mittels DSC-Messungen konnten Phasenübergänge für dieses Fließverhalten verantwortlich gemacht werden. Außerdem kann Poly(N-(methacryl-2-ethyl)-N'-(3-amino-(1,2,4-triazol-2-yl))harnstoff-co-methylmethacrylat) thermisch vernetzen.

Local Earthquake Tomography by trans-dimensional Monte Carlo Sampling

In this study a new, fully non-linear, approach to Local Earthquake Tomography is presented. Local Earthquakes Tomography (LET) is a non-linear inversion problem that allows the joint determination of earthquakes parameters and velocity structure from arrival times of waves generated by local sources. Since the early developments of seismic tomography several inversion methods have been developed to solve this problem in a linearized way. In the framework of Monte Carlo sampling, we developed a new code based on the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method (Rj-McMc). It is a trans-dimensional approach in which the number of unknowns, and thus the model parameterization, is treated as one of the unknowns. I show that our new code allows overcoming major limitations of linearized tomography, opening a new perspective in seismic imaging. Synthetic tests demonstrate that our algorithm is able to produce a robust and reliable tomography without the need to make subjective a-priori assumptions about starting models and parameterization. Moreover it provides a more accurate estimate of uncertainties about the model parameters. Therefore, it is very suitable for investigating the velocity structure in regions that lack of accurate a-priori information. Synthetic tests also reveal that the lack of any regularization constraints allows extracting more information from the observed data and that the velocity structure can be detected also in regions where the density of rays is low and standard linearized codes fails. I also present high-resolution Vp and Vp/Vs models in two widespread investigated regions: the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault (California, USA) and the area around the Alto Tiberina fault (Umbria-Marche, Italy). In both the cases, the models obtained with our code show a substantial improvement in the data fit, if compared with the models obtained from the same data set with the linearized inversion codes.

Molecular events associated with trisomy of chromosome 7 in mouse skin chemical carcinogenesis

The primary objective of this study has been to investigate the effects at the molecular level of trisomy of mouse chromosome 7 in chemically induced skin tumors. It was previously proposed that the initiation event in the mouse skin carcinogenesis model is a heterozygous mutation of the Ha-ras-1 gene, mapped to chromosome 7. Previous studies in this laboratory identified trisomy 7 as one of the primary nonrandom cytogenetic abnormalities found in the majority of severely dysplastic papillomas and squamous cell carcinomas induced in SENCAR mice by an initiation-promotion protocol. Therefore, the first hypothesis tested was that trisomy 7 occurs by specific duplication of the chromosome carrying a mutated Ha-ras-1 allele. Results of a quantitative analysis of normal/mutated allelic ratios of the Ha-ras-1 gene confirmed this hypothesis, showing that most of the tumors exhibited overrepresentation of the mutated allele in the form of 1/2, 0/3, and 0/2 (normal/mutated) ratios. In addition, histopathological analysis of the tumors showed an apparent association between the degree of malignancy and the dosage of the mutated Ha-ras-1 allele. To determine the mechanism for loss of the normal Ha-ras-1 allele, found in 30% of the tumors, a comparison of constitutional and tumor genotypes was performed at different informative loci of chromosome 7. By combining Southern blot and polymerase chain reaction fragment length polymorphism analyses of DNAs extracted from squamous cell carcinomas, complete loss of heterozygosity was detected in 15 of 20 tumors at the Hbb locus, and in 5 of 5 tumors at the int-2 locus, both distal to Ha-ras-1. In addition, polymerase chain reaction analysis of DNA extracted from papillomas indicated that loss of heterozygosity occurs in late-stage lesions exhibiting a high degree of dysplasia and areas of microinvasion, suggesting that this event may be associated to the acquisition of the malignant phenotype. Allelic dosage analysis of tumors that had become homozygous at Hbb but retained heterozygosis at Ha-ras-1, indicated that loss of heterozygosity on mouse chromosome 7 occurs by a mitotic recombination mechanism. Overall, these findings suggest the presence of a putative tumor suppressor locus on the 7F1-ter region of mouse chromosome 7. Thus, loss of function by homozygosis at this putative suppressor locus may complement activation of the Ha-ras-1 gene during tumor progression, and might be associated with the malignant conversion stage of mouse skin carcinogenesis. ^

Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Methacryloxyethyl phosphate-grafted expanded polytetrafluoroethylene membranes for biomedical applications

Expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE) membranes were modified by graft copolymerization with methacryloxyethyl phosphate (MOEP) in methanol and 2-butanone (methyl ethyl ketone (MEK)) at ambient temperature using gamma irradiation. The effect of dose rate (0.46 and 4.6 kGyh(-1)), monomer concentration (1-40 %) and solvent were studied and the modified membranes were characterized by weight increase, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). XPS was used to determine the % degree of surface coverage using the C-F (ePTFE membrane) and the C-C (MOEP graft copolymer) peaks. Grafting yield, as well as surface coverage, were found to increase with increasing monomer concentration and were significantly higher for samples grafted in MEK than in methanol solution. SEM images showed distinctly different surface morphologies for the membranes grafted in methanol (smooth) and MEK (globular), hence indicating phase separation of the homopolymer in MEK. We propose that in our system, the non-solvent properties of MEK for the homopolymer play a more important role than solvent chain transfer reactions in determining grafting outcomes. (c) 2005 Society of Chemical Industry.

Promoter effects in the polymerisation of a mixed hydrocarbon feed with silica-supported BF3

The activity of a silica-supported BF3–methanol solid acid catalyst in the cationic polymerisation of an industrial aromatic C9 feedstock has been investigated. Reuse has been achieved under continuous conditions. Titration of the catalyst acid sites with triethylphosphine oxide (TEPO) in conjunction with 31P MAS NMR shows the catalyst to have two types of acid sites. Further analysis with 2,6 di-tert-butyl-4-methylpyridine (DBMP) has revealed the majority of these acid sites to be Brønsted in nature. The role of α-methylstyrene in promoting resin polymerisation via chain transfer is proposed.

Bayesian nonparametric latent variable models

L’un des problèmes importants en apprentissage automatique est de déterminer la complexité du modèle à apprendre. Une trop grande complexité mène au surapprentissage, ce qui correspond à trouver des structures qui n’existent pas réellement dans les données, tandis qu’une trop faible complexité mène au sous-apprentissage, c’est-à-dire que l’expressivité du modèle est insuffisante pour capturer l’ensemble des structures présentes dans les données. Pour certains modèles probabilistes, la complexité du modèle se traduit par l’introduction d’une ou plusieurs variables cachées dont le rôle est d’expliquer le processus génératif des données. Il existe diverses approches permettant d’identifier le nombre approprié de variables cachées d’un modèle. Cette thèse s’intéresse aux méthodes Bayésiennes nonparamétriques permettant de déterminer le nombre de variables cachées à utiliser ainsi que leur dimensionnalité. La popularisation des statistiques Bayésiennes nonparamétriques au sein de la communauté de l’apprentissage automatique est assez récente. Leur principal attrait vient du fait qu’elles offrent des modèles hautement flexibles et dont la complexité s’ajuste proportionnellement à la quantité de données disponibles. Au cours des dernières années, la recherche sur les méthodes d’apprentissage Bayésiennes nonparamétriques a porté sur trois aspects principaux : la construction de nouveaux modèles, le développement d’algorithmes d’inférence et les applications. Cette thèse présente nos contributions à ces trois sujets de recherches dans le contexte d’apprentissage de modèles à variables cachées. Dans un premier temps, nous introduisons le Pitman-Yor process mixture of Gaussians, un modèle permettant l’apprentissage de mélanges infinis de Gaussiennes. Nous présentons aussi un algorithme d’inférence permettant de découvrir les composantes cachées du modèle que nous évaluons sur deux applications concrètes de robotique. Nos résultats démontrent que l’approche proposée surpasse en performance et en flexibilité les approches classiques d’apprentissage. Dans un deuxième temps, nous proposons l’extended cascading Indian buffet process, un modèle servant de distribution de probabilité a priori sur l’espace des graphes dirigés acycliques. Dans le contexte de réseaux Bayésien, ce prior permet d’identifier à la fois la présence de variables cachées et la structure du réseau parmi celles-ci. Un algorithme d’inférence Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov est utilisé pour l’évaluation sur des problèmes d’identification de structures et d’estimation de densités. Dans un dernier temps, nous proposons le Indian chefs process, un modèle plus général que l’extended cascading Indian buffet process servant à l’apprentissage de graphes et d’ordres. L’avantage du nouveau modèle est qu’il admet les connections entres les variables observables et qu’il prend en compte l’ordre des variables. Nous présentons un algorithme d’inférence Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov avec saut réversible permettant l’apprentissage conjoint de graphes et d’ordres. L’évaluation est faite sur des problèmes d’estimations de densité et de test d’indépendance. Ce modèle est le premier modèle Bayésien nonparamétrique permettant d’apprendre des réseaux Bayésiens disposant d’une structure complètement arbitraire.

Synthesis of Macrocyclic Polymers Formed via Intramolecular Radical Trap-Assisted Atom Transfer Radical Coupling

The synthesis of cyclic polystyrene (Pst) with an alkoxyamine functionality has been accomplished by intramolecular radical coupling in the presence of a nitroso radical trap Linear alpha,omega-dibrominated polystyrene, produced by the atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) of styrene using a dibrominated initiator, was subjected to chain-end activation via the atom transfer radical coupling (ATRC) process under pseudodilute conditions in the presence of 2-methyl-2-nitrosopropane (MNP). This radical trap-assisted, intramolecular ATRC (RTA-ATRC) produced cyclic polymers in greater than 90% yields possessing < G > values in the 0.8-0.9 range as determined by gel permeation chromatography (GPC). Thermal-induced opening of the cycles, made possible by the incorporated alkoxyamine, resulted in a return to the original apparent molecular weight, further supporting the formation of cyclic polymers in the RTA-ATRC reaction. Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) provided direct confirmation of the cyclic architecture and the incorporation of the nitroso group into the macrocycle RTA-ATRC cyclizations carried out with faster rates of polymer addition into the redox active solution and/or in the presence of a much larger excess of MNP (up to a 250:1 ratio of MNP:C-Br chain end) still yielded cyclic polymers that contained alkoxyamine functionality.