Direct Computation of Stochastic Flow in Reservoirs with Uncertain Parameters

A direct method is presented for determining the uncertainty in reservoir pressure, flow, and net present value (NPV) using the time-dependent, one phase, two- or three-dimensional equations of flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the solution is modelled as a probability distribution function and is computed from given statistical data for input parameters such as permeability. The method generates an expansion for the mean of the pressure about a deterministic solution to the system equations using a perturbation to the mean of the input parameters. Hierarchical equations that define approximations to the mean solution at each point and to the field covariance of the pressure are developed and solved numerically. The procedure is then used to find the statistics of the flow and the risked value of the field, defined by the NPV, for a given development scenario. This method involves only one (albeit complicated) solution of the equations and contrasts with the more usual Monte-Carlo approach where many such solutions are required. The procedure is applied easily to other physical systems modelled by linear or nonlinear partial differential equations with uncertain data.

Natural Plasmodium infections in Brazilian wild monkeys: Reservoirs for human infections?

Four hundred and forty-eight samples of total blood from wild monkeys living in areas where human autochthonous malaria cases have been reported were screened for the presence of Plasmodium using microscopy and PCR analysis. Samples came from the following distinct ecological areas of Brazil: Atlantic forest (N = 140), semideciduous Atlantic forest (N = 257) and Cerrado (a savannah-like habitat) (N = 51). Thick and thin blood smears of each specimen were examined and Plasmodium infection was screened by multiplex polymerase chain reaction (multiplex PCR). The frequency of Plasmodium infections detected by PCR in Alouatta guariba clamitans in the Sao Paulo Atlantic forest was 11.3% or 8/71 (5.6% for Plasmodium malariae and 5.6% for Plasmodium vivax) and one specimen was positive for Plasmodium falciparum (1.4%); Callithrix sp. (N = 30) and Cebus apella (N = 39) specimens were negative by PCR tests. Microscopy analysis was negative for all specimens from the Atlantic forest. The positivity rate for Alouatta caraya from semideciduous Atlantic forest was 6.8% (16/235) in the PCR tests (5.5, 0.8 and 0.4% for P. malariae, P. falciparum and P. vivax, respectively), while C apella specimens were negative. Parasitological examination of I he samples using thick smears revealed Plasmodium sp. infections in only seven specimens, which had few parasites (3.0%). Monkeys from the Cerrado (a savannah-like habitat) (42 specimens of A. caraya, 5 of Callithrix jacchus and 4 of C. apella) were negative in both tests. The parasitological prevalence of P. vivax and P. malariae in wild monkeys from Atlantic forest and semideciduous Atlantic forest and the finding of a positive result for P.falciparum in Alouatta from both types of forest support the hypothesis that monkeys belonging to this genus could be a potential reservoir. Furthermore, these findings raise the question of the relationship between simian and autochthonous human malaria in extra-Amazonian regions. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aeromonas detection and their toxins from drinking water from reservoirs and drinking fountains

Aeromonads are inhabitants of aquatic ecosystems and are described as being involved in intestinal disturbances and other infections. A total of 200 drinking water samples from domestic and public reservoirs and drinking fountains located in Sao Paulo (Brazil), were analyzed for the presence of Aeromonas. Samples were concentrated by membrane filtration and enriched in APW. ADA medium was used for Aeromonas isolation and colonies were confirmed by biochemical characterization. Strains isolated were tested for hemolysin and toxin production. Aeromonas was detected in 12 samples (6.0%). Aeromonas strains (96) were isolated and identified as: A. caviae (41.7%), A. hydrophila (15.7%), A. allosacharophila (10.4%), A. schubertii (1.0%) and Aeromonas spp. (31.2%). The results revealed that 70% of A. caviare, 66.7% of A. hydrophila, 80% of A. allosacharophila and 46.6% of Aeromonas spp. were hemolytic. The assay for checking production of toxins showed that 17.5% of A. caviae, 73.3% of A. hydrophila, 60% of A. allosacharophila, 100% of A. schubertii, and 33.3% of Aeromonas spp. were able to produce toxins. The results demonstrated the pathogenic potential of Aeromonas, indicating that the presence of this emerging pathogen in water systems is a public health concern.

Delaware Reservoirs��� Drought Risk Assessment: A Paleo View

The Delaware River provides half of New York City's drinking water, is a habitat for wild trout, American shad and the federally endangered dwarf wedge mussel. It has suffered four 100‐year floods in the last seven years. A drought during the 1960s stands as a warning of the potential vulnerability of the New York City area to severe water shortages if a similar drought were to recur. The water releases from three New York City dams on the Delaware River's headwaters impact not only the reliability of the city’s water supply, but also the potential impact of floods, and the quality of the aquatic habitat in the upper river. The goal of this work is to influence the Delaware River water release policies (FFMP/OST) to further benefit river habitat and fisheries without increasing New York City's drought risk, or the flood risk to down basin residents. The Delaware water release policies are constrained by the dictates of two US Supreme Court Decrees (1931 and 1954) and the need for unanimity among four states: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware ‐‐ and New York City. Coordination of their activities and the operation under the existing decrees is provided by the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC). Questions such as the probability of the system approaching drought state based on the current FFMP plan and the severity of the 1960s drought are addressed using long record paleo‐reconstructions of flows. For this study, we developed reconstructed total annual flows (water year) for 3 reservoir inflows using regional tree rings going back upto 1754 (a total of 246 years). The reconstructed flows are used with a simple reservoir model to quantify droughts. We observe that the 1960s drought is by far the worst drought based on 246 years of simulations (since 1754).

Migratory and Carnivorous Birds in Brazil: Reservoirs for Anaplasma and Ehrlichia Species?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Phytoplankton structure in two contrasting cascade reservoirs (Paranapanema River, Southeast Brazil)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Heat budgets, thermal structure and dissolved oxygen in Brazilian reservoirs

A comparison of the thermal regime and oxygen distribution patterns of some Brazilian reservoirs was made. A strong latitudinal dependence of surface temperature, annual mean and annual range was found. Except for Tucurui Reservoir, a reservoir of the Equatorial zone, the lowest surface temperature of the year in the other compared reservoirs was observed from June to August while the highest extended from October to February. The decreasing trend of annual mean temperatures and thermal ranges was due to the increasing seasonal variability of insolation with the latitude. A positive relationship between the increase on thermal surface-bottom differences and the depth of water column was found for reservoirs of similar latitudes. A long thermal stratification (around four months) was evidenced in the lacustrine zone of reservoirs with a residence time higher than 40 days. Low fluctuation (<2%) of the annual variability of heat contents was observed for the Tucurui Reservoir, while in das Garcas Reservoir a manmade lake located in the frontier between tropical and temperate regions, the annual coefficient of variation attained 13%. Concerning the heat budgets, the value for the Tucurui Reservoir was two times higher than in das Garcas Reservoir. Both the morphometric and climatological factors affected the heat contents of the two compared reservoirs. In deep eutrophic reservoirs, a significant reduction on the oxygen concentrations in the hypolimnetic zone was frequently observed. In some oligotrophic stratified reservoirs, a decrease on oxygen with depth occurred when the temperature of the hypolimnion was higher than 20 degrees C and caused a biochemical oxygen demand. In das Garcas Reservoir, the actual oxygen deficits ranged from 0.40 to 1.52 mg.O-2.cm(-2) and appear to be linked to oxygen consumption after the senescence of Microcystis aeruginosa populations in the spring. But, other factors such as the allochthonous loads of organic matter also had an important role on the oxygen balance of das Garcas Reservoir.

Phosphate distribution in the sediments along a cascade of reservoirs - (Paranapanema River, SE, Brazil)

Total phosphorus concentrations in the sediment of a cascade of 8 reservoirs located in the Paranapanema River (SE, Brazil) were analysed during two consecutive seasonal periods (2000 and 200 1). The reservoirs of Jurumirim, Chavantes, Salto Grande, Canoas 11, Canoas 1, Capivara, Taquarucu and Rosana were built during the last five decades with the purpose of hydroelectric generation. The sampling points were distributed along a 700 km of river stretch in 19 stations distributed in the river-reservoirs zones and main tributaries as well as in 5 stations representing the adjacent wetlands. The nutrient concentration was determined in samples from surface layers of sediment. Temporal and spatial changes were observed for both years. Three different areas could be identified along the river, considering not only Tot-P variations but also others physical and chemical characteristics such as organic matter concentration, nitrogen concentration of sediment and 02, pH, conductivity and Eh measured in the bottom layer of the water column. Higher values of Tot-P were found in the middle and lower region of the Paranapanema basin (maximum value of 1.96 mg g(-1) in Tibagi River in October/2001). Agricultural practices and cattle raising are the main external sources of nutrient in these regions. Superficial or sub-superficial watershed drainage and tributaries entrances are important nutrient contributors, leading to an increasing accumulation of nutrient in the sediment. This process seems to be especially important in the middle region of the Paranapanema Valley, were the values of Tot-P were higher comparing to the other areas.

Artisanal fisheries in urban reservoirs: a case study from Brazil (Billings Reservoir, São Paulo Metropolitan Region)

Billings Reservoir is an urban reservoir located in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region. Tt supports 101 active artisanal fishermen. To describe this fishery, landings were recorded daily between February 1996 and January 1997 at Colonia (23 degrees 50' 57 S; 46 degrees 40' 02 W). In every landing, a data collector recorded catch, effort, fishing gears and fishing grounds. A total of 147 593 kg of fish were recorded in 3515 fishing trips. The exotic Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (L.), was the main species exploited (81.4% of the annual catches). Five other species were also targeted: the characid Astyanax eigenmaniorum (Cope) (13.0% of the annual catches); the erythrinid Hoplias aff malabaricus (Block) (2.1%); the exotic cyprinid Cyprinus carpio L. (Campos & Fernandez-Yepez) (2.4%); the curimatid Cyphocharax modestus L. (1.1%); and the pimelodid Rhamdia sp. (0.1%). Two main groups of fishermen were discriminated using Principal Components Analysis; these were associated with the type of fishing gear and fishing strategies, i.e. those who exploited Nile tilapia with cast nets and beating gill nets, and those who exploited other species with set gill nets. Management and maintenance of this fishery should consider the positive top-down effects that Nile tilapia could have in controlling eutrophication and also the social benefits.

Income evaluation of small - scale fishers in two brazilian urban reservoirs: Represa Billings (SP) and Lago Paranoá (DF)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pelagic and littoral cladocerans (Crustacea, Anomopoda and Ctenopoda) from reservoirs of the Northwest of São Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Copepods (Crustacea, Maxillopoda) from shallow reservoirs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Assessment of aquatic plants in the reservoirs of AES-Tiete and development of an integrated control model for the most important species

The general objective of this work was to develop a monitoring and management model for aquatic plants that could be used in reservoir cascades in Brazil, using the reservoirs of AES-Tiete as a study case. The investigations were carried out at the reservoirs of Barra-Bonita, Bariri, Ibitinga, Promissao, and Nova-Avanhandava, located in the Tiete River Basin; Agua Vermelha, located in the Grande River Basin; Caconde, Limoeiro, and Euclides da Cunha, which are part of the Pardo River Basin; and the Mogi-Guacu reservoir, which belongs to the Mogi-Guacu River basin. The main products of this work were: development of techniques using satellite-generated images for monitoring and planning aquatic plant control; planning and construction of a boat to move floating plant masses and an airboat equipped with a DGPS navigation and application flow control system. Results allowed to conclude that the occurrence of all types of aquatic plants is directly associated with sedimentation process and, consequently, with nutrient and light availability. Reservoirs placed at the beginning of cascades are more subject to sedimentation and occurrence of marginal, floating and emerged plants, and are the priority when it comes to controlling these plants, since they provide a supply of weeds for the other reservoirs. Reservoirs placed downstream show smaller amounts of water-suspended solids, with greater transmission of light and occurrence of submerged plants.

Microcystin-producing genotypes from cyanobacteria in Brazilian reservoirs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fisheries in large tropical reservoirs in South America

The present status of large reservoir fisheries and their management in large reservoirs in South America are reviewed. There is a brief discussion about reservoir typology, and how most of it is inappropriate to fish. Fish in reservoirs and their introduction from other habitats are described, together with comparative yields. The main impacts due to damming are described, including social aspects. Four case studies are presented for the largest reservoirs in South America: Sobradinho, Tucuruí and Itaipu in Brazil, and El Guri in Venezuela.