Developing new components for variable flow distribution system modelling in TRNSYS

This study attempts to fill the existing gap in the simulation of variable flow distribution systems through developing new pressure governing components. These components are able to capture the actual ever-changing system performance curve in variable flow distribution systems together with the prediction of controversial issues such as starving, over-flow and the lack of controllability on the flow rate of different branches in a hydronic system. The performance of the proposed components is verified using a case study under design and off-design circumstances. Full integration of the new components within the TRNSYS simulation package is another advantage of this study, which makes it more applicable for designers in both the design and commissioning of hydronic systems.

Reliability of regional climate model trends

A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed probabilities verified over a large number of cases. As climate change trends are now emerging from the natural variability, we can apply this concept to climate predictions and compute the reliability of simulated local and regional temperature and precipitation trends (1950–2011) in a recent multi-model ensemble of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5). With only a single verification time, the verification is over the spatial dimension. The local temperature trends appear to be reliable. However, when the global mean climate response is factored out, the ensemble is overconfident: the observed trend is outside the range of modelled trends in many more regions than would be expected by the model estimate of natural variability and model spread. Precipitation trends are overconfident for all trend definitions. This implies that for near-term local climate forecasts the CMIP5 ensemble cannot simply be used as a reliable probabilistic forecast.

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.

Observing the performance of distribution systems with embedded generators

In this paper, a multi-objective approach for observing the performance of distribution systems with embedded generators in the steady state, based on heuristic and power system analysis, is proposed. The proposed hybrid performance index describes the quality of the operating state in each considered distribution network configuration. In order to represent the system state, the loss allocation in the distribution systems, based on the Z-bus loss allocation method and compensation-based power flow algorithm, is determined. Also, an investigation of the impact of the integration of embedded generators on the overall performance of the distribution systems in the steady state, is performed. Results obtained from several case studies are presented and discussed. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A Constructive Heuristic Algorithm for Distribution System Planning

A constructive heuristic algorithm (CHA) to solve distribution system planning (DSP) problem is presented. The DSP is a very complex mixed binary nonlinear programming problem. A CHA is aimed at obtaining an excellent quality solution for the DSP problem. However, a local improvement phase and a branching technique were implemented in the CHA to improve its solution. In each step of the CHA, a sensitivity index is used to add a circuit or a substation to the distribution system. This sensitivity index is obtained by solving the DSP problem considering the numbers of circuits and substations to be added as continuous variables (relaxed problem). The relaxed problem is a large and complex nonlinear programming and was solved through an efficient nonlinear optimization solver. Results of two tests systems and one real distribution system are presented in this paper in order to show the ability of the proposed algorithm.

Imposing Radiality Constraints in Distribution System Optimization Problems

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

ALGORITHM FOR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS of DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS WITH DISTRIBUTED GENERATION

In this paper an efficient algorithm for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly-meshed distribution systems is presented. This algorithm uses the technique of Two-Point Estimate Method for calculating the probabilistic behavior of the system random variables. Additionally, the deterministic analysis of the state variables is performed by means of a Compensation-Based Radial Load Flow (CBRLF). Such load flow efficiently exploits the topological characteristics of the network. To deal with distributed generation, a strategy to incorporate a simplified model of a generator in the CBRLF is proposed. Thus, depending on the type of control and generator operation conditions, the node with distributed generation can be modeled either as a PV or PQ node. To validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the IEEE 37 bus test system is used. The probabilistic results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method.

Network reconfiguration and loss allocation in a deregulated environment of distribution systems

Low flexibility and reliability in the operation of radial distribution networks make those systems be constructed with extra equipment as sectionalising switches in order to reconfigure the network, so the operation quality of the network can be improved. Thus, sectionalising switches are used for fault isolation and for configuration management (reconfiguration). Moreover, distribution systems are being impacted by the increasing insertion of distributed generators. Hence, distributed generation became one of the relevant parameters in the evaluation of systems reconfiguration. Distributed generation may affect distribution networks operation in various ways, causing noticeable impacts depending on its location. Thus, the loss allocation problem becomes more important considering the possibility of open access to the distribution networks. In this work, a graphic simulator for distribution networks with reconfiguration and loss allocation functions, is presented. Reconfiguration problem is solved through a heuristic methodology, using a robust power flow algorithm based on the current summation backward-forward technique, considering distributed generation. Four different loss allocation methods (Zbus, Direct Loss Coefficient, Substitution and Marginal Loss Coefficient) are implemented and compared. Results for a 32-bus medium voltage distribution network, are presented and discussed.

Reliability of timber bridges using nailed plywood box beams

The Nailed Box Beam structural efficiency is directly dependent of the flange-web joint behavior, which determines the partial composition of the section, as the displacement between elements reduces the effective rigidity of the section and changes the stress distribution and the total displacement of the section. This work discusses the use of Nailed Plywood Box Beams in small span timber bridges, focusing on the reliability of the beam element. It is presented the results of tests carried out in 21 full scale Nailed Plywood Box Beams. The analysis of maximum load tests results shows that it presents a normal distribution, permitting the characteristic values calculation as the normal distribution theory specifies. The reliability of those elements was analyzed focusing on a timber bridge design, to estimate the failure probability in function of the load level.

Distribution system restoration in a DG environment using a heuristic constructive multi-start algorithm

This paper proposes a heuristic constructive multi-start algorithm (HCMA) to distribution system restoration in real time considering distributed generators installed in the system. The problem is modeled as nonlinear mixed integer and considers the two main goals of the restoration of distribution networks: minimizing the number of consumers without power and the number of switching. The proposed algorithm is implemented in C++ programming language and tested using a large real-life distribution system. The results show that the proposed algorithm is able to provide a set of feasible and good quality solutions in a suitable time for the problem. © 2011 IEEE.

A mixed-integer quadratically-constrained programming model for the distribution system expansion planning

This paper presents a mixed-integer quadratically-constrained programming (MIQCP) model to solve the distribution system expansion planning (DSEP) problem. The DSEP model considers the construction/reinforcement of substations, the construction/reconductoring of circuits, the allocation of fixed capacitors banks and the radial topology modification. As the DSEP problem is a very complex mixed-integer non-linear programming problem, it is convenient to reformulate it like a MIQCP problem; it is demonstrated that the proposed formulation represents the steady-state operation of a radial distribution system. The proposed MIQCP model is a convex formulation, which allows to find the optimal solution using optimization solvers. Test systems of 23 and 54 nodes and one real distribution system of 136 nodes were used to show the efficiency of the proposed model in comparison with other DSEP models available in the specialized literature. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BIOMECHANICAL BEHAVIOR OF THE SYSTEM PROSTHESIS/DENTAL IMPLANT: ANALYSIS BY THE PHOTOELASTICITY METHOD

One of the main reasons for the failure in dental implant treatments is the overload, which can cause bone resorption and later, the osseointegration loss in the implant. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the tension generated around dental implants in the rehabilitation of three mandible posterior teeth, varying the connection type, the disposal, and the quantity of implants. The photoelasticity method was used in order to accomplish it. Through photoelasticity, the quantity and localization of the tensions around the implants in the different studied groups were compared (three straight line implants, three offset placement implants, two implants with a mesial cantilever, and two implants with a pontic). The results showed that the tension quantity and disposition around the dental implants of the connection external hexagon and internal hexagon were similar in all groups. In the group where the cantilever was used, an increase of the tension around the implant, adjacent to the cantilever, was observed. From the results it is concluded that the type of connection used in this study did not influence the tension quantity and distribution around the implants; however, the prosthetic configuration with the cantilever use, led to an increase of the tension around the implant, adjacent to the cantilever.

Analysis of the radial operation of distribution systems considering operation with minimal losses

Electric power distribution systems, and particularly those with overhead circuits, operate radially but as the topology of the systems is meshed, therefore a set of circuits needs to be disconnected. In this context the problem of optimal reconfiguration of a distribution system is formulated with the goal of finding a radial topology for the operation of the system. This paper utilizes experimental tests and preliminary theoretical analysis to show that radial topology is one of the worst topologies to use if the goal is to minimize power losses in a power distribution system. For this reason, it is important to initiate a theoretical and practical discussion on whether it is worthwhile to operate a distribution system in a radial form. This topic is becoming increasingly important within the modern operation of electrical systems, which requires them to operate as efficiently as possible, utilizing all available resources to improve and optimize the operation of electric power systems. Experimental tests demonstrate the importance of this issue. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pattern of distribution and environmental influences on the Scienidae community of the Southeastern Brazilian coast

The Sciaenids have among the highest species richness, numerical abundance and biomass of any family of fishes along the Brazilian coast. The aim of this study was to analyze the composition and spatial and temporal distribution of as well as the influence of temperature, salinity and depth on the sciaenid assemblage of Santos Bay. A total of 29,306 individuals belonging to 13 genera and 21 species were captured, between November 2004 and December 2005, with Stellifer rastrifer representing 70.4% of the total composition. Highest abundance and biomass occurred on the east side of the bay, and the highest species richness occurred near the mouth of the Santos Channel, which was also the site with least similarity to the other sites. Highest abundances occurred in April 2005 and lowest in September 2005. Key environmental factors influencing distribution of sciaenids were depth and temperature.