855 resultados para Regression tree
Resumo:
Within the marl prairie grasslands of the Florida Everglades, USA, the combined effects of fire and flooding usually lead to very significant changes in tree island structure and composition. Depending on fire severity and post-fire hydroperiod, these effects vary spatially and temporally throughout the landscape, creating a patchy post-fire mosaic of tree islands with different successional states. Through the use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and three predictor variables (marsh water table elevation at the time of fire, post-fire hydroperiod, and tree island size), along with logistic regression analysis, we examined the probability of tree island burning and recovering following the Mustang Corner Fire (May to June 2008) in Everglades National Park. Our data show that hydrologic conditions during and after fire, which are under varying degrees of management control, can lead to tree island contraction or loss. More specifically, the elevation of the marsh water table at the time of the fire appears to be the most important parameter determining the severity of fire in marl prairie tree islands. Furthermore, in the post-fire recovery phase, both tree island size and hydroperiod during the first year after the fire played important roles in determining the probability of tree island recovery, contraction, or loss.
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This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.
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Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. Ex Adr. Juss.) Muell.-Arg. is the primary source of natural rubber that is native to the Amazon rainforest. The singular properties of natural rubber make it superior to and competitive with synthetic rubber for use in several applications. Here, we performed RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) of H. brasiliensis bark on the Illumina GAIIx platform, which generated 179,326,804 raw reads on the Illumina GAIIx platform. A total of 50,384 contigs that were over 400 bp in size were obtained and subjected to further analyses. A similarity search against the non-redundant (nr) protein database returned 32,018 (63%) positive BLASTx hits. The transcriptome analysis was annotated using the clusters of orthologous groups (COG), gene ontology (GO), Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), and Pfam databases. A search for putative molecular marker was performed to identify simple sequence repeats (SSRs) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). In total, 17,927 SSRs and 404,114 SNPs were detected. Finally, we selected sequences that were identified as belonging to the mevalonate (MVA) and 2-C-methyl-D-erythritol 4-phosphate (MEP) pathways, which are involved in rubber biosynthesis, to validate the SNP markers. A total of 78 SNPs were validated in 36 genotypes of H. brasiliensis. This new dataset represents a powerful information source for rubber tree bark genes and will be an important tool for the development of microsatellites and SNP markers for use in future genetic analyses such as genetic linkage mapping, quantitative trait loci identification, investigations of linkage disequilibrium and marker-assisted selection.
Resumo:
Hevea brasiliensis is a native species of the Amazon Basin of South America and the primary source of natural rubber worldwide. Due to the occurrence of South American Leaf Blight disease in this area, rubber plantations have been extended to suboptimal regions. Rubber tree breeding is time-consuming and expensive, but molecular markers can serve as a tool for early evaluation, thus reducing time and costs. In this work, we constructed six different cDNA libraries with the aim of developing gene-targeted molecular markers for the rubber tree. A total of 8,263 reads were assembled, generating 5,025 unigenes that were analyzed; 912 expressed sequence tags (ESTs) represented new transcripts, and two sequences were highly up-regulated by cold stress. These unigenes were scanned for microsatellite (SSR) regions and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). In total, 169 novel EST-SSR markers were developed; 138 loci were polymorphic in the rubber tree, and 98 % presented transferability to six other Hevea species. Locus duplication was observed in H. brasiliensis and other species. Additionally, 43 SNP markers in 13 sequences that showed similarity to proteins involved in stress response, latex biosynthesis and developmental processes were characterized. cDNA libraries are a rich source of SSR and SNP markers and enable the identification of new transcripts. The new markers developed here will be a valuable resource for linkage mapping, QTL identification and other studies in the rubber tree and can also be used to evaluate the genetic variability of other Hevea species, which are valuable assets in rubber tree breeding.
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In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.
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Trees from tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) display very dynamic patterns of water use. They are capable of downwards water transport towards the soil during leaf-wetting events, likely a consequence of foliar water uptake (FWU), as well as high rates of night-time transpiration (Enight) during drier nights. These two processes might represent important sources of water losses and gains to the plant, but little is known about the environmental factors controlling these water fluxes. We evaluated how contrasting atmospheric and soil water conditions control diurnal, nocturnal and seasonal dynamics of sap flow in Drimys brasiliensis (Miers), a common Neotropical cloud forest species. We monitored the seasonal variation of soil water content, micrometeorological conditions and sap flow of D. brasiliensis trees in the field during wet and dry seasons. We also conducted a greenhouse experiment exposing D. brasiliensis saplings under contrasting soil water conditions to deuterium-labelled fog water. We found that during the night D. brasiliensis possesses heightened stomatal sensitivity to soil drought and vapour pressure deficit, which reduces night-time water loss. Leaf-wetting events had a strong suppressive effect on tree transpiration (E). Foliar water uptake increased in magnitude with drier soil and during longer leaf-wetting events. The difference between diurnal and nocturnal stomatal behaviour in D. brasiliensis could be attributed to an optimization of carbon gain when leaves are dry, as well as minimization of nocturnal water loss. The leaf-wetting events on the other hand seem important to D. brasiliensis water balance, especially during soil droughts, both by suppressing tree transpiration (E) and as a small additional water supply through FWU. Our results suggest that decreases in leaf-wetting events in TMCF might increase D. brasiliensis water loss and decrease its water gains, which could compromise its ecophysiological performance and survival during dry periods.
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Conventional reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and hyperspectral imaging (HI) in the near-infrared region (1000-2500 nm) are evaluated and compared, using, as the case study, the determination of relevant properties related to the quality of natural rubber. Mooney viscosity (MV) and plasticity indices (PI) (PI0 - original plasticity, PI30 - plasticity after accelerated aging, and PRI - the plasticity retention index after accelerated aging) of rubber were determined using multivariate regression models. Two hundred and eighty six samples of rubber were measured using conventional and hyperspectral near-infrared imaging reflectance instruments in the range of 1000-2500 nm. The sample set was split into regression (n = 191) and external validation (n = 95) sub-sets. Three instruments were employed for data acquisition: a line scanning hyperspectral camera and two conventional FT-NIR spectrometers. Sample heterogeneity was evaluated using hyperspectral images obtained with a resolution of 150 × 150 μm and principal component analysis. The probed sample area (5 cm(2); 24,000 pixels) to achieve representativeness was found to be equivalent to the average of 6 spectra for a 1 cm diameter probing circular window of one FT-NIR instrument. The other spectrophotometer can probe the whole sample in only one measurement. The results show that the rubber properties can be determined with very similar accuracy and precision by Partial Least Square (PLS) regression models regardless of whether HI-NIR or conventional FT-NIR produce the spectral datasets. The best Root Mean Square Errors of Prediction (RMSEPs) of external validation for MV, PI0, PI30, and PRI were 4.3, 1.8, 3.4, and 5.3%, respectively. Though the quantitative results provided by the three instruments can be considered equivalent, the hyperspectral imaging instrument presents a number of advantages, being about 6 times faster than conventional bulk spectrometers, producing robust spectral data by ensuring sample representativeness, and minimizing the effect of the presence of contaminants.
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Approximately 7.2% of the Atlantic rainforest remains in Brazil, with only 16% of this forest remaining in the State of Rio de Janeiro, all of it distributed in fragments. This forest fragmentation can produce biotic and abiotic differences between edges and the fragment interior. In this study, we compared the structure and richness of tree communities in three habitats - an anthropogenic edge (AE), a natural edge (NE) and the fragment interior (FI) - of a fragment of Atlantic forest in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (22°50'S and 42°28'W). One thousand and seventy-six trees with a diameter at breast height > 4.8 cm, belonging to 132 morphospecies and 39 families, were sampled in a total study area of 0.75 ha. NE had the greatest basal area and the trees in this habitat had the greatest diameter:height allometric coefficient, whereas AE had a lower richness and greater variation in the height of the first tree branch. Tree density, diameter, height and the proportion of standing dead trees did not differ among the habitats. There was marked heterogeneity among replicates within each habitat. These results indicate that the forest interior and the fragment edges (natural or anthropogenic) do not differ markedly considering the studied parameters. Other factors, such as the age from the edge, type of matrix and proximity of gaps, may play a more important role in plant community structure than the proximity from edges.
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The aim of this work was to evaluate the floristic composition, richness, and diversity of the upper and lower strata of a stretch of mixed rain forest near the city of Itaberá, in southeastern Brazil. We also investigated the differences between this conservation area and other stretches of mixed rain forest in southern and southeastern Brazil, as well as other nearby forest formations, in terms of their floristic relationships. For our survey of the upper stratum (diameter at breast height [DBH] > 15 cm), we established 50 permanent plots of 10 × 20 m. Within each of those plots, we designated five, randomly located, 1 × 1 m subplots, in order to survey the lower stratum (total height > 30 cm and DBH < 15 cm). In the upper stratum, we sampled 1429 trees and shrubs, belonging to 134 species, 93 genera, and 47 families. In the lower stratum, we sampled 758 trees and shrubs, belonging to 93 species, 66 genera, and 39 families. In our floristic and phytosociological surveys, we recorded 177 species, belonging to 106 genera and 52 families. The Shannon Diversity Index was 4.12 and 3.5 for the upper and lower strata, respectively. Cluster analysis indicated that nearby forest formations had the strongest floristic influence on the study area, which was therefore distinct from other mixed rain forests in southern Brazil and in the Serra da Mantiqueira mountain range.
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Mistletoe can have a major impact on the fitness of the host plant. If there is more than one species of mistletoe on the same host tree, the overall impact might be amplified. We report the occurrence of more than one species of mistletoe on the same host tree. Although it is not a rule in the field, to our knowledge, there have been no studies of this topic. In most cases, two species of mistletoe were recorded on the same host tree, although we recorded three species of mistletoe on one occasion. This demonstrates that different species of mistletoe can be compatible with the same host species. Therefore, compatibility (structural and physiological) might be an important factor for the occurrence of mistletoe. Recent studies have shown that if the mistletoe does not recognize the host species, the deposited seeds will germinate but the haustorium will not penetrate the host branch. This is probably the primary mechanism in the establishment of more than one species of mistletoe on the same host, which can trigger a cascade of harmful effects for the host species.
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Considering the importance of water content for the conservation and storage of seeds, and the involvement of soluble carbohydrates and lipids for embryo development, a comparative study was carried out among the seeds of Inga vera (ingá), Eugenia uniflora (pitanga), both classified as recalcitrant, and Caesalpinia echinata (brazilwood) and Erythrina speciosa (mulungu), considered as orthodox seeds. Low concentrations of cyclitols (0.3-0.5%), raffinose family oligosaccharides (ca. 0.05%) and unsaturated fatty acids (0-19%) were found in the seeds of ingá and pitanga, while larger amounts of cyclitols (2-3%) and raffinose (4.6-13%) were found in brazilwood and mulungu, respectively. These results, in addition to higher proportions of unsaturated fatty acids (53-71%) in orthodox seeds, suggested that sugars and lipids played important role in water movement, protecting the embryo cell membranes against injuries during dehydration.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to develop and validate equations to estimate the aboveground phytomass of a 30 years old plot of Atlantic Forest. In two plots of 100 m², a total of 82 trees were cut down at ground level. For each tree, height and diameter were measured. Leaves and woody material were separated in order to determine their fresh weights in field conditions. Samples of each fraction were oven dried at 80 °C to constant weight to determine their dry weight. Tree data were divided into two random samples. One sample was used for the development of the regression equations, and the other for validation. The models were developed using single linear regression analysis, where the dependent variable was the dry mass, and the independent variables were height (h), diameter (d) and d²h. The validation was carried out using Pearson correlation coefficient, paired t-Student test and standard error of estimation. The best equations to estimate aboveground phytomass were: lnDW = -3.068+2.522lnd (r² = 0.91; s y/x = 0.67) and lnDW = -3.676+0.951ln d²h (r² = 0.94; s y/x = 0.56).
Resumo:
Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver modelos preditores de fitomassa epigéa da vegetação arbórea da Floresta Baixa de Restinga. Foram selecionadas 102 árvores de 29 espécies ocorrentes na área de estudo e 102 indivíduos de jerivá (Syagrus romanzoffiana (Cham.) Glassman), distribuídos proporcionalmente entre as classes de diâmetro da vegetação arbórea. As árvores foram cortadas, ao nível do solo e foram medidos a altura total e o diâmetro à altura do peito (DAP) de cada árvore. As folhas foram separadas do lenho e a massa fresca da porção lenhosa e foliar medidas separadamente. Amostras de cada fração foram secas a 70 °C, até peso constante, para determinação da massa seca das árvores. Os modelos foram desenvolvidos através de análise de regressão linear, sendo a variável dependente a massa seca (MS) das árvores e as variáveis independentes a altura (h), o diâmetro a altura do peito (d) e as relações d² h e d² h multiplicada pela densidade da madeira (ρ d² h). Os modelos desenvolvidos indicam que o diâmetro explica grande parte da variabilidade da fitomassa das árvores da restinga e a altura é a variável explanatória da equação específica para o jerivá. Os modelos selecionados foram: ln MS (kg) = -1,352 + 2,009 ln d (R² = 0,96; s yx = 0,34) para a comunidade vegetal sem jerivá, ln MS (kg) = -2,052 + 0,801 ln d² h (R² = 0,94; s yx = 0,38) para a comunidade incluindo o jerivá, e ln MS (kg) = -0,884 + 2,40 ln h (R² = 0,92; s yx = 0,49) para o jerivá.
Resumo:
The troglobitic armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus (Loricariidae, Ancistrinae) is known from four caves in the São Domingos karst area, upper rio Tocantins basin, Central Brazil. These populations differ in general body shape and degree of reduction of eyes and of pigmentation. The small Passa Três population (around 1,000 individuals) presents the most reduced eyes, which are not externally visible in adults. A small group of Passa Três catfish, one male and three females, reproduced spontaneously thrice in laboratory, at the end of summertime in 2000, 2003 and 2004. Herein we describe the reproductive behavior during the 2003 event, as well as the early development of the 2003 and 2004 offsprings, with focus on body growth and ontogenetic regression of eyes. The parental care by the male, which includes defense of the rock shelter where the egg clutch is laid, cleaning and oxygenation of eggs, is typical of many loricariids. On the other hand, the slow development, including delayed eye degeneration, low body growth rates and high estimated longevity (15 years or more) are characteristic of precocial, or K-selected, life cycles. In the absence of comparable data for close epigean relatives (Ancistrus spp.), it is not possible to establish whether these features are an autapomorphic specialization of the troglobitic A. cryptophthalmus or a plesiomorphic trait already present in the epigean ancestor, possibly favoring the adoption of the life in the food-poor cave environment. We briefly discuss the current hypotheses on eye regression in troglobitic vertebrates.
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The genus Callistomys belongs to the rodent family Echimyidae, subfamily Echimyinae, and its only living representative is Callistomys pictus, a rare and vulnerable endemic species of the state of Bahia, Brazil. Callistomys has been previously classified as Nelomys, Loncheres, Isothrix and Echimys. In this paper we present the karyotype of Callistomys pictus, including CBG and GTG-banding patterns and silver staining of the nucleolus organizer regions (Ag-NORs). Comments on Callistomys pictus morphological traits and a compilation of Echimyinae chromosomal data are also included. Our analyses revealed that Callistomys can be recognized both by its distintinctive morphology and by its karyotype.