Quantile regression for longitudinal data with a working correlation model

This paper proposes a linear quantile regression analysis method for longitudinal data that combines the between- and within-subject estimating functions, which incorporates the correlations between repeated measurements. Therefore, the proposed method results in more efficient parameter estimation relative to the estimating functions based on an independence working model. To reduce computational burdens, the induced smoothing method is introduced to obtain parameter estimates and their variances. Under some regularity conditions, the estimators derived by the induced smoothing method are consistent and have asymptotically normal distributions. A number of simulation studies are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results indicate that the efficiency gain for the proposed method is substantial especially when strong within correlations exist. Finally, a dataset from the audiology growth research is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.

An analysis of risk management disclosures: Australian evidence

- Purpose Communication of risk management practices are a critical component of good corporate governance. Research to date has been of little benefit in informing regulators internationally. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature by investigating how listed Australian companies in a setting where disclosures are explicitly required by the ASX corporate governance framework, disclose risk management (RM) information in the corporate governance statements within annual reports. - Design/methodology/approach To address our study’s research questions and related hypotheses, we examine the top 300 ASX-listed companies by market capitalisation at 30 June 2010. For these firms, we identify, code and categorise RM disclosures made in the annual reports according to the disclosure categories specified in Australian Stock Exchange Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations (ASX CGPR). The derived data is then examined using a comprehensive approach comprising thematic content analysis and regression analysis. - Findings The results indicate widespread divergence in disclosure practices and low conformance with the Principle 7 of the ASX CGPR. This result suggests that companies are not disclosing all ‘material business risks’ possibly due to ignorance at the board level, or due to the intentional withholding of sensitive information from financial statement users. The findings also show mixed results across the factors expected to influence disclosure behaviour. Notably, the presence of a risk committee (RC) (in particular, a standalone RC) and technology committee (TC) are found to be associated with improved levels of disclosure. we do not find evidence that company risk measures (as proxied by equity beta and the market-to-book ratio) are significantly associated with greater levels of RM disclosure. Also, contrary to common findings in the disclosure literature, factors such as board independence and expertise, audit committee independence, and the usage of a Big-4 auditor do not seem to impact the level of RM disclosure in the Australian context. - Research limitation/implications The study is limited by the sample and study period selection as the RM disclosures of only the largest (top 300) ASX firms are examined for the fiscal year 2010. Thus, the finding may not be generalisable to smaller firms, or earlier/later years. Also, the findings may have limited applicability in other jurisdictions with different regulatory environments. - Practical implications The study’s findings suggest that insufficient attention has been applied to RM disclosures by listed companies in Australia. These results suggest that the RM disclosures practices observed in the Australian setting may not be meeting the objectives of regulators and the needs of stakeholders. - Originality/value Despite the importance of risk management communication, it is unclear whether disclosures in annual financial reports achieve this communication. The Australian setting provides an ideal environment to examine the nature and extent of risk management communication as the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) has recommended risk management disclosures follow Principle 7 of its principle-based governance rules since 2007.

Patterns of entrepreneurial career development: An optimal matching analysis approach

Longitudinal studies of entrepreneurial career development are rare, and current knowledge of self-employment patterns and their relationships with individual difference characteristics is limited. In this study, the authors analyzed employment data from a subsample of 514 participants from the German Socio-Economic Panel study (1984–2008). Results of an optimal matching analysis indicated that a continuous self-employment pattern could be distinguished from four alternative employment patterns (change from employment to self-employment, full-time employees, part-time employees, and farmers). Results of a multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that certain socio-demographic characteristics (i.e., age and gender) and personality characteristics (i.e., conscientiousness and risk-taking propensity) were related to the likelihood of following a continuous self-employment pattern compared to the other employment patterns. Implications for future research on entrepreneurial career development are discussed.

Joint Regression and Association Models for Repeated Categorical Responses

The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.

Statistical and Information-Theoretic Methods for Data-Analysis

In this Thesis, we develop theory and methods for computational data analysis. The problems in data analysis are approached from three perspectives: statistical learning theory, the Bayesian framework, and the information-theoretic minimum description length (MDL) principle. Contributions in statistical learning theory address the possibility of generalization to unseen cases, and regression analysis with partially observed data with an application to mobile device positioning. In the second part of the Thesis, we discuss so called Bayesian network classifiers, and show that they are closely related to logistic regression models. In the final part, we apply the MDL principle to tracing the history of old manuscripts, and to noise reduction in digital signals.

Angel Investing in Finland: An Analysis Based on Agency Theory and the Incomplete Contracting Theory

Wealthy individuals - business angels who invest a share of their net worth in entrepreneurial ventures - form an essential part of an informal venture capital market that can secure funding for entrepreneurial ventures. In Finland, business angels represent an untapped pool of capital that can contribute to fostering entrepreneurial development. In addition, business angels can bridge knowledge gaps in new business ventures by means of making their human capital available. This study has two objectives. The first is to gain an understanding of the characteristics and investment behaviour of Finnish business angels. The strongest focus here is on the due diligence procedures and their involvement post investment. The second objective is to assess whether agency theory and the incomplete contacting theory are useful theoretical lenses in the arena of business angels. To achieve the second objective, this study investigates i) how risk is mitigated in the investment process, ii) how uncertainty influences the comprehensiveness of due diligence as well as iii) how control is allocated post investment. Research hypotheses are derived from assumptions underlying agency theory and the incomplete contacting theory. The data for this study comprise interviews with 53 business angels. In terms of sample size this is the largest on Finnish business angels. The research hypotheses in this study are tested using regression analysis. This study suggests that the Finnish informal venture capital market appears to be comprised of a limited number of business angels whose style of investing much resembles their formal counterparts’. Much focus is placed on managing risks prior to making the investment by strong selectiveness and by a relatively comprehensive due diligence. The involvement is rarely on a day-to-day basis and many business angels seem to see board membership as a more suitable alternative than involvement in the operations of an entrepreneurial venture. The uncertainty involved does not seem to drive an increase in due diligence. On the contrary, it would appear that due diligence is more rigorous in safer later stage investments and when the business angels have considerable previous experience as investors. Finnish business angels’ involvement post investment is best explained by their degree of ownership in the entrepreneurial venture. It seems that when investors feel they are sufficiently rewarded, in terms of an adequate equity stake, they are willing to involve themselves actively in their investments. The lack of support for a relationship between increased uncertainty and the comprehensiveness of due diligence may partly be explained by an increasing trend towards portfolio diversification. This is triggered by a taxation system that favours investments through investment companies rather than direct investments. Many business angels appear to have substituted a specialization strategy that builds on reducing uncertainty for a diversification strategy that builds on reducing firm specific (idiosyncratic) risk by holding shares in ventures whose returns are not expected to exhibit a strong positive correlation.

Learning and management skills: the internationalization of Grupo Arcor. Analysis from a process-based approach

This paper analyzes the path of the international expansion of Grupo Arcor, an Argentine multinational company specializing in confectionery. The objective is to entify corporate strategies and business learning that led this Latin American firm to establish itself as one of the leading manufacturers in confectionery industry ,particularly in the 21st Century. The analysis is primarily qualitative in order to identify the economic dimension as a determinant in the internationalization process; a processbased approach from the Uppsala Model is used for this. However, the study is also complemented with a regression analysis to test if the firm was driven to expand internationally by the expectations on the degree of globalization of the industry and the accumulation of experience in foreign markets, and if the company was influenced by psychic distance in choosing the location of its investment; given the influence of these variables in Grupo Arcor business strategies. Our findings suggest that Grupo Arcor, was able to become global due to strategies such as vertical integration, diversification of products and geographical markets (based on psychic distance) and indeed some strategies were consequence of the globalization of the sector and the accumulation of experience in foreign markets.

Economic analysis of fish farming in Ogun State

This study examined the economic potential of fish farming in Abeokuta zone of Ogun State in the 2003 production season. Descriptive statistics cost returns and multiple regression analysis were used in analyzing the data. The farmers predominantly practiced monoculture. Inefficiency in the use of pond size, lime and labour with over-utilization of fingerlings stocked was revealed by the study. The average variable cost of N124.67 constituted 45% of the total while average fixed cost was N149.802.67 per average farm size. Fish farming was found to be a profitable venture in the study area with a net income of N761, 400.58 for an average pond size of 301.47sq.m. Based on these findings, it is suggested that for profit maximization, the fish farm will have to increase the level of their use of fingerlings and fertilizers and decrease the use of lime labour and pond size

A GIS analysis of coastal development and trends in bottlenose dolphin strandings in Charleston, SC: implications for coastal marine spatial planning

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabit estuarine waters near Charleston, South Carolina (SC) feeding, nursing and socializing. While in these waters, dolphins are exposed to multiple direct and indirect threats such as anthropogenic impacts (egs. harassment with boat traffic and entanglements in fishing gear) and environmental degradation. Bottlenose dolphins are protected under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972. Over the years, the percentage of strandings in the estuaries has increased in South Carolina and, specifically, recent stranding data shows an increase in strandings occurring in Charleston, SC near areas of residential development. During the same timeframe, Charleston experienced a shift in human population towards the coastline. These two trends, rise in estuarine dolphin strandings and shift in human population, have raised questions on whether the increase in strandings is a result of more detectable strandings being reported, or a true increase in stranding events. Using GIS, the trends in strandings were compared to residential growth, boat permits, fishing permits, and dock permits in Charleston County from 1994-2009. A simple linear regression analysis was performed to determine if there were any significant relationships between strandings, boat permits, commercial fishing permits, and crabpot permits. The results of this analysis show the stranding trend moves toward Charleston Harbor and adjacent rivers over time which suggests the increase in strandings is related to the strandings becoming more detectable. The statistical analysis shows that the factors that cause human interaction strandings such as boats, commercial fishing, and crabpot line entanglements are not significantly related to strandings further supporting the hypothesis that the increase in strandings are due to increased observations on the water as human coastal population increases and are not a natural phenomenon. This study has local and potentially regional marine spatial planning implications to protect coastal natural resources, such as the bottlenose dolphin, while balancing coastal development.

Spatial analysis for spring bloom and nutrient limitation in Xiangxi bay of three Gorges Reservoir

The spatial and temporal dynamics of physical variables, inorganic nutrients and phytoplankton chlorophyll a were investigated in Xiangxi Bay from 23 Feb. to 28 Apr. every six days, including one daily sampling site and one bidaily sampling site. The concentrations of nutrient variables showed ranges of 0.02-3.20 mg/L for dissolved silicate (Si); 0.06-2.40 mg/L for DIN (NH4N + NO2N + NO3N); 0.03-0.56 mg/L for PO4P and 0.22-193.37 mu g/L for chlorophyll a, respectively. The concentration of chlorophyll a and inorganic nutrients were interpolated using GIS techniques. The results indicated that the spring bloom was occurred twice in space during the whole monitoring period (The first one: 26 Feb.-23 Mar.; the second one: 23 Mar.-28 Apr.). The concentration of DIN was always high in the mouth of Xiangxi Bay, and PO4P was high in the upstream of Xiangxi Bay during the whole bloom period. Si seems no obvious difference in space in the beginning of the spring bloom, but showed high heterogeneity in space and time with the development of spring bloom. By comparing the interpolated maps of chlorophyll a and inorganic variables, obvious consumptions of Si and DIN were found when the bloom status was serious. However, no obvious depletion of PO4P was found. Spatial regression analysis could explained most variation of Chl-a except at the begin of the first and second bloom. The result indicated that Si was the factor limiting Chl-a in space before achieved the max area of hypertrophic in the first and second bloom period. When Si was obviously exhausted, DIN became the factor limiting the Chl-a in space. Daily and bidaily monitoring of Site A and B, representing for high DIN: PO4P ratio and low DIN:PO4P ratio, indicated that the concentration of Si was decreased with times at both site A and B, and the dramatically drop of DIN was found in the end monitoring at site B. Multiple stepwise regression analysis indicated that Si was the most important factor affect the development of spring bloom both at site A and B in time series.

Correlation analysis of the structures and stability constants of gadolinium(III) complexes

To simplify the abstraction of descriptors, for the correlation analysis of the stability constants of gadolinium(III) complexes and their ligand structures, aiming at gadolinium(III) complexes, we only considered the ligands and ignored the common parts of the structures, i.e., the metal ions. Quantum-chemical descriptors and topological indices were calculated to describe the structures of the ligands. Multiple regression analysis and neural networks were applied to construct the models between the ligands and the stability constants of gadolinium(III) complexes and satisfactory results were obtained.

Quantitative structure-property relationship research to the analysis of photoionization sensitivity of organic compounds in gas chromatography

The A(m) index and molecular connectivity index were used for studying the photoionization sensitivity of some organic compounds in gas chromatography. The analysis of structure-property relationship between the photoionization sensitivity of the compounds and the A(m) indices or molecular connectivity indices has been carried out. The genetic algorighm was used to build the correlation model in this field. The results demonstrate that the property of compounds can be described by both A(m) indices and molecular connectivity indices, and the mathematical model obtained by the genetic algorithm was better than that by multivariate regression analysis.

Quantitative traits correlative analysis and growth comparison among different populations of bay scallop, Argopecten irradians

The shell traits and weight traits are measured in cultured populations of bay scallop, Argopecten irradians. The results of regression analysis show that the regression relationships for all the traits are significant (P < 0.01). The correlative coefficients between body weight, as well as tissue weight with shell length, shell height and shell width are significant (P < 0.05). But the correlative coefficients between the anterior and posterior auricle length with body weight as well as tissue weight are not significant (P > 0.05). The multiple regression equation is obtained to estimate live body weight and tissue weight. The above traits except anterior and posterior auricle length are used for the growth and production comparison among three cultured populations, Duncan's new multiple range procedure analysis shows that all the traits in the Lingshuiqiao (LSQ) population are much more significant than those of the other two populations (P < 0.01), and there is no significant difference between the Qipanmo (QPM) and Dalijia (DLJ) populations in all traits (P > 0.05). The results indicate that the LSQ population has a higher growth rate and is expected to be more productive than the other two populations.

Lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial regression

In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB) regression model for counts, and present efficient closed-form Bayesian inference; unlike conventional Poisson models, the proposed approach has two free parameters to include two different kinds of random effects, and allows the incorporation of prior information, such as sparsity in the regression coefficients. By placing a gamma distribution prior on the NB dispersion parameter r, and connecting a log-normal distribution prior with the logit of the NB probability parameter p, efficient Gibbs sampling and variational Bayes inference are both developed. The closed-form updates are obtained by exploiting conditional conjugacy via both a compound Poisson representation and a Polya-Gamma distribution based data augmentation approach. The proposed Bayesian inference can be implemented routinely, while being easily generalizable to more complex settings involving multivariate dependence structures. The algorithms are illustrated using real examples. Copyright 2012 by the author(s)/owner(s).

How Porosity and Permeability Vary Spatially With Grain Size, Sorting, Cement Volume, and Mineral Dissolution In Fluvial Triassic Sandstones: The Value of Geostatistics and Local Regression

Although it is well known that sandstone porosity and permeability are controlled by a range of parameters such as grain size and sorting, amount, type, and location of diagenetic cements, extent and type of compaction, and the generation of intergranular and intragranular secondary porosity, it is less constrained how these controlling parameters link up in rock volumes (within and between beds) and how they spatially interact to determine porosity and permeability. To address these unknowns, this study examined Triassic fluvial sandstone outcrops from the UK using field logging, probe permeametry of 200 points, and sampling at 100 points on a gridded rock surface. These field observations were supplemented by laser particle-size analysis, thin-section point-count analysis of primary and diagenetic mineralogy, quantitiative XRD mineral analysis, and SEM/EDAX analysis of all 100 samples. These data were analyzed using global regression, variography, kriging, conditional simulation, and geographically weighted regression to examine the spatial relationships between porosity and permeability and their potential controls. The results of bivariate analysis (global regression) of the entire outcrop dataset indicate only a weak correlation between both permeability porosity and their diagenetic and depositional controls and provide very limited information on the role of primary textural structures such as grain size and sorting. Subdividing the dataset further by bedding unit revealed details of more local controls on porosity and permeability. An alternative geostatistical approach combined with a local modelling technique (geographically weighted regression; GWR) subsequently was used to examine the spatial variability of porosity and permeability and their controls. The use of GWR does not require prior knowledge of divisions between bedding units, but the results from GWR broadly concur with results of regression analysis by bedding unit and provide much greater clarity of how porosity and permeability and their controls vary laterally and vertically. The close relationship between depositional lithofacies in each bed, diagenesis, and permeability, porosity demonstrates that each influences the other, and in turn how understanding of reservoir properties is enhanced by integration of paleoenvironmental reconstruction, stratigraphy, mineralogy, and geostatistics.