Vector competence experiments with Rocio virus and three mosquito species from the epidemic zone in Brazil

First-generation progeny of field-collected Psorophora ferox, Aedes scapularis, and Aedes serratus from the Rocio encephalitis epidemic zone in S.Paulo State, Brazil, were tested for vector competency in the laboratory. Psorophora ferox and Ae. scapularis are susceptible to per os infection with Rocio virus and can transmit the virus by bite following a suitable incubation period. Oral ID50S for the two species (10(4.1) and 10(4.3) Vero cell plaque forming units, respectively) did not differ significantly. Infection rates in Ae. serratus never exceeded 36%, and, consequently, an ID50 could not be calculated for this species. It is unlikely that Ae. serratus is an epidemiologically important vector of Rocio virus. The utility of an in vitro feeding technique for demonstrating virus transmission by infected mosquitoes and difficulties encountered in working with uncolonized progeny of field-collected mosquitoes are discussed.

Stochastic effects in a seasonally forced epidemic model

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity, is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that corresponds to childhood infectious diseases such as measles. The power spectrum of the stochastic fluctuations around the attractors of the deterministic system that describes the model in the thermodynamic limit is computed analytically and validated by stochastic simulations for large system sizes. Size effects are studied through additional simulations. Other effects such as switching between coexisting attractors induced by stochasticity often mentioned in the literature as playing an important role in the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases are also investigated. The main conclusion is that stochastic amplification, rather than these effects, is the key ingredient to understand the observed incidence patterns.

The AIDS epidemic in the Amazon region: a spatial case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze spatial changes in the risk of AIDS and the relationship between AIDS incidence and socioeconomic variables in the state of Rondonia, Amazon region. METHODS A spatial, population case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil, based on 1,780 cases reported to the Epidemiological Surveillance System and controls based on demographic data from 1987 to 2006. The cases were grouped into five consecutive four-year periods. A generalized additive model was adjusted to the data; the dependent variable was the status of the individuals (case or control), and the independent variables were a bi-dimensional spline of the geographic coordinates and some municipality-level socioeconomic variables. The observed values of the Moran’s I test were compared to a reference distribution of values generated under conditions of spatial randomness. RESULTS AIDS risk shows a marked spatial and temporal pattern. The disease incidence is related to socioeconomic variables at the municipal level in Rondônia, such as urbanization and human capital. The highest incidence rates of AIDS are in municipalities along the BR-364 highway and calculations of the Moran’s I test show positive spatial correlation associated with proximity of the municipality to the highway in the third and fourth periods (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Incidence of the disease is higher in municipalities of greater economic wealth and urbanization, and in those municipalities bisected by Rondônia’s main roads. The rapid development associated with the opening up of once remote regions may be accompanied by an increase in these risks to health.

Evaluation of dengue fever reports during an epidemic, Colombia

OBJECTIVE To assess the validity of dengue fever reports and how they relate to the definition of case and severity. METHODS Diagnostic test assessment was conducted using cross-sectional sampling from a universe of 13,873 patients treated during the fifth epidemiological period in health institutions from 11 Colombian departments in 2013. The test under analyses was the reporting to the National Public Health Surveillance System, and the reference standard was the review of histories identified by active institutional search. We reviewed all histories of patients diagnosed with dengue fever, as well as a random sample of patients with febrile syndromes. The specificity and sensitivity of reports were estimated for this purpose, considering the inverse of the probability of being selected for weighting. The concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search was calculated using Kappa statistics. RESULTS We included 4,359 febrile patients, and 31.7% were classified as compatible with dengue fever (17 with severe dengue fever; 461 with dengue fever and warning signs; 904 with dengue fever and no warning signs). The global sensitivity of reports was 13.2% (95%CI 10.9;15.4) and specificity was 98.4% (95%CI 97.9;98.9). Sensitivity varied according to severity: 12.1% (95%CI 9.3;14.8) for patients presenting dengue fever with no warning signs; 14.5% (95%CI 10.6;18.4) for those presenting dengue fever with warning signs, and 40.0% (95%CI 9.6;70.4) for those with severe dengue fever. Concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search resulted in a Kappa of 10.1%. CONCLUSIONS Low concordance was observed between reporting and the review of clinical histories, which was associated with the low reporting of dengue fever compatible cases, especially milder cases.

Increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique, 2014: epidemic or new endemic pattern?

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique. METHODS Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014, in Mozambique with national weekly epidemiological bulletin data. I analyzed the number of recorded cases in the 2009-2013 period, which led to the creation of an endemic channel using the quartile and C-Sum methods. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for the first half of 2014, making it possible to determine the pattern of endemicity. Months in which the incidence rates exceeded the third quartile or line C-sum were declared as epidemic months. RESULTS The provinces of Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala, and Inhambane accounted for 52.7% of all cases in the first half of 2014. Also during this period, the provinces of Nampula, Sofala and Tete were responsible for 54.9% of the deaths from malaria. The incidence rates of malaria in children, and in all ages, have showed patterns in the epidemic zone. For all ages, the incidence rate has peaked in April (2,573 cases/100,000 inhabitants). CONCLUSIONS The results suggest the occurrence of an epidemic pattern of malaria in the first half of 2014 in Mozambique. It is strategic to have a more accurate surveillance at all levels (central, provincial and district) to target prevention and control interventions in a timely manner.

Risk factors for recurrent wheezing in infants: a case-control study

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between recurrent wheezing and atopy, the Asthma Predictive Index, exposure to risk factors, and total serum IgE levels as potential factors to predict recurrent wheezing. METHODS A case-control study with infants aged 6-24 months treated at a specialized outpatient clinic from November 2011 to March 2013. Evaluations included sensitivity to inhalant and food antigens, positive Asthma Predictive Index, and other risk factors for recurrent wheezing (smoking during pregnancy, presence of indoor smoke, viral infections, and total serum IgE levels). RESULTS We evaluated 113 children: 65 infants with recurrent wheezing (63.0% male) with a mean age of 14.8 (SD = 5.2) months and 48 healthy infants (44.0% male) with a mean age of 15.2 (SD = 5.1) months. In the multiple analysis model, antigen sensitivity (OR = 12.45; 95%CI 1.28–19.11), positive Asthma Predictive Index (OR = 5.57; 95%CI 2.23–7.96), and exposure to environmental smoke (OR = 2.63; 95%CI 1.09–6.30) remained as risk factors for wheezing. Eosinophilia ≥ 4.0% e total IgE ≥ 100 UI/mL were more prevalent in the wheezing group, but failed to remain in the model. Smoking during pregnancy was identified in a small number of mothers, and secondhand smoke at home was higher in the control group. CONCLUSIONS Presence of atopy, positive Asthma Predictive Index and exposure to environmental smoke are associated to recurrent wheezing. Identifying these factors enables the adoption of preventive measures, especially for children susceptible to persistent wheezing and future asthma onset.

Dengue epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: virological and epidemiological aspects

Laboratorial studies were carried out on 3178 patients with signs and symptoms suggestive of dengue infection from April 1986 to December 1987 in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The epidemic had two peaks following the first virus isolation and affected the inhabitants of 17 counties. Both sex and all age groups were affected. Dengue virus type 1 was isolated from 1039 sera and the number of confirmed cases was increased to 1874 (59%) by MAC-ELISA. Isolation rate confirmed cases reached 80% in the specimens obtained until the 4th day after the onset of disease and viraemia ranged from 10 3.0 to 10(8.5) TCID50/ml.

Vibrios among patients of good socioeconomic conditions during the cholera epidemic in Recife, Brazil

Between March and July, 1992, we screened for Vibrio all fecal samples submitted for bacteriologic diagnosis at a private clinical laboratory in Recife. Of 1435 cultures examined only 1 (0.07%) was positive for V.cholerae 01, biovar Eltor, serovar Inaba, but 17 (1.2%) yielded non-cholera Vibrio (V.cholerae non-01; V.fluvialis; V.furnissii, V.parahaemolyticus and Vibrio spp). Thus, V.cholerae 01, differently of other enteropathogenic vibrios, spared individuals of good socioeconomic conditions even during the cholera epidemic, which made hundreds of victims in the neighboring slums.

The 1853-1856 cholera morbus epidemic in Portugal as seen by the press

This research is part of a larger project focused on producing a History of the Popularization of Science and Technology in Portugal. The goal is to find out how scientific knowledge reached the common people in the nineteenth century, using newspapers as the main source of information. Keeping in mind the population’s limited access to written material, nevertheless each newspaper could be read daily by an estimate 30.000 people in Lisbon, which places this source as probably the most widespread vehicle to divulge the latest scientific news at the time to an unspecialised audience. With a cholera morbus epidemic which affected the second largest Portuguese town and all the northern regions, as well as the Algarve, news and reports on its evolution were considered essential. A large database was built in order to analyse the news concerning this disease in 1855 and 1856, especially the ones about prevention and treatment. These are important historical sources that give us real information on the scientific knowledge of the time and the way it was used by society.

Epidemic dengue 4 in the Yucatán, México, 1984

An outbreak of dengue 4 occurred in the Yucatán, México in 1984. During the course of the outbreak, 538 of 5486 reported cases of dengue-like illness were studied; 200 were confirmed as dengue serologically and/or virologically. Dengue 4 virus was isolated from 34 patients and dengue 1 from one. Severe haemorrhagic symptoms were observed in 9 laboratory confirmed patients, including four deaths. Thus, the outbreak in Yucatán is the second dengue epidemic in the Americas after the Cuban epidemic in 1981 in which a number of patients suffered from haemorrhagic complications. It was notable that 5 of 9 hospitalized, severe cases were young adults and that only one met the WHO criteria of DHF, in contrast to primary pediatric nature of DHF in Southeast Asia. In this paper we describe clinical, serologic, and virologic studies conducted during the outbreak.

An exanthematic disease epidemic associated with coxsackievirus B3 infection in a day care center

An epidemic of exanthematic illness in a day care center is described. Ten children aged 7 to 13 months were affected by the illness. The exanthem was characterized by nonconfluent macular or maculopapular lesions that appeared on the face, body and limbs. Fifty percent of the infected children had fever of up to 39ºC at the beginning of the disease. Coxsackievirus B3 (CB3) was isolated from the stool of one ill child. Paired serum samples were obtained from eight ill children and six of them presented seroconversion to CB3. Antibodies to CB3 were detected at titers higher than 16 in a single serum sample collected from the other two patients. Neutralizing antibodies to CB3 were detected in 71.0% of the contact children.

Genetic structure of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C epidemic strains in South Brazil

In the present study we report the results of an analysis, based on serotyping, multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MEE), and ribotyping of N. meningitidis serogroup C strains isolated from patients with meningococcal disease (MD) in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and Santa Catarina (SC) States, Brazil, as the Center of Epidemiology Control of Ministry of Health detected an increasing of MD cases due to this serogroup in the last two years (1992-1993). We have demonstrated that the MD due to N.meningitidis serogroup C strains in RS and SC States occurring in the last 4 years were caused mainly by one clone of strains (ET 40), with isolates indistinguishable by serogroup, serotype, subtype and even by ribotyping. One small number of cases that were not due to an ET 40 strains, represent closely related clones that probably are new lineages generated from the ET 40 clone referred as ET 11A complex. We have also analyzed N.meningitidis serogroup C strains isolated in the greater São Paulo in 1976 as representative of the first post epidemic year in that region. The ribotyping method, as well as MEE, could provide useful information about the clonal characteristics of those isolates and also of strains isolated in south Brazil. The strains from 1976 have more similarity with the actual endemic than epidemic strains, by the ribotyping, sulfonamide sensitivity, and MEE results. In conclusion, serotyping with monoclonal antibodies (C:2b:P1.3), MEE (ET 11 and ET 11A complex), and ribotyping by using ClaI restriction enzyme (Rb2), were useful to characterize these epidemic strains of N.meningitidis related to the increased incidence of MD in different States of south Brazil. It is mostly probable that these N.meningitidis serogroup C strains have poor or no genetic corelation with 1971-1975 epidemic serogroup C strains. The genetic similarity of members of the ET 11 and ET 11A complex were confirmed by the ribotyping method by using three restriction endonucleases.