988 resultados para Recruitment Dynamics
Resumo:
Indo-Pacific region encompasses about 75% of world's coral reefs, but hard coral cover in this region experienced a 32% region-wide decline since 1970s. This great change is primarily ascribable to natural and anthropogenic pressures, including climate change and human activities effects. Coral reef conservation requires management strategies oriented to maintain their diversity and the capacity to provide ecosystem goods and services. Coral reef resilience, i.e. the capacity to recover after disturbances, is critical to their long-term persistence. The aims of the present study were to design and to test field experiments intended to measure changes in recruitment processes, as a fundamental aspect of the coral reef resilience. Recruitment experiments, using artificial panels suspended in the water column, were carried out in two Indo-Pacific locations affected by different disturbances: a new mine in Bangka Island (Indonesia), and the increased sedimentation due to coastal dynamics in Vavvaru Island (Maldives). One (or more) putatively disturbed site(s) was selected to be tested against 3 randomly selected control sites. Panels’ arrangement simulates 2 proximities to living corals, i.e. the sources of propagules: few centimetres and 2 meters over. Panels were deployed simultaneously at each site and left submerged for about five months. Recruits were identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level and recruited assemblages were analysed in terms of percent cover. In general it was not possible to detect significant differences between the benthic assemblages recruited in disturbed and control sites. The high variability observed in recruits assemblages structure among control sites may be so large to mask the possible disturbance effects. Only few taxa showed possible effects of the disturb they undergo. The field tests have highlighted strengths and weaknesses of the proposed approach and, based on these results, some possible improvements were suggested.
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The examination of telomere dynamics is a recent technique in ecology for assessing physiological state and age-related traits from individuals of unknown age. Telomeres shorten with age in most species and are expected to reflect physiological state, reproductive investment, and chronological age. Loss of telomere length is used as an indicator of biological aging, as this detrimental deterioration is associated with lowered survival. Lifespan dimorphism and more rapid senescence in the larger, shorter-lived sex are predicted in species with sexual size dimorphism, however, little is known about the effects of behavioral dimorphism on senescence and life history traits in species with sexual monomorphism. Here we compare telomere dynamics of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia), a species with male-biased parental care, in two ways: 1) cross-sectionally in birds of known-age (0-28 years) from one colony and 2) longitudinally in birds from four colonies. Telomere dynamics are compared using three measures: the telomere restriction fragment (TRF), a lower window of TRF (TOE), and qPCR. All showed age-related shortening of telomeres, but the TRF measure also indicated that adult female murres have shorter telomere length than adult males, consistent with sex-specific patterns of ageing. Adult males had longer telomeres than adult females on all colonies examined, but chick telomere length did not differ by sex. Additionally, inter-annual telomere changes may be related to environmental conditions; birds from a potentially low quality colony lost telomeres, while those at more hospitable colonies maintained telomere length. We conclude that sex-specific patterns of telomere loss exist in the sexually monomorphic thick-billed murre but are likely to occur between fledging and recruitment. Longer telomeres in males may be related to their homogamous sex chromosomes (ZZ) or to selection for longer life in the care-giving sex. Environmental conditions appeared to be the primary drivers of annual changes in adult birds.
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Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.
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Throughout the Upper Great Lakes region, alterations to historic disturbance regimes have influenced plant community dynamics in hemlock-hardwood forests. Several important mesic forest species, eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis), eastern white pine (Pinus strobus), and Canada yew (Taxus canadensis), are in decline due to exploitive logging practices used at the turn of the 20th century and the wave of intense fires that followed. Continued regeneration and recruitment failure is attributed to contemporary forest management practices and overbrowsing by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Therefore, I examined the influence of two concurrent disturbances, overstory removal and herbivory, on plant community dynamics in two hemlock-hardwood forests. I measured the post-disturbance regeneration response (herbaceous and woody species) inside and outside of deer exclosures in 20 artificial canopy gaps (50 – 450 m2) and monitored survival and growth for hundreds of planted seedlings. The results of this research show that interacting disturbances can play a large role in shaping plant community composition and structure in hemlock-hardwood forests. White-tailed deer herbivory homogenized the post-disturbance plant communities across the experimental gradient of gap areas, essentially making species compositions in small gaps “look like” those in large gaps. Deer browsing also influenced probability of survival for planted Canada yew cuttings; all else being equal an individual was nearly seven times more likely to survive if protected from herbivory (P < 0.001). In contrast, the ability of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) to persist under high levels of herbivory and respond rapidly to overstory release appears to be related to the presence of stem layering(i.e., portions of below-ground prostrate stem). Layering occurred in 52% of excavated saplings (n = 100) and was significantly associated with increased post-disturbance height growth. Understory light was also important to planted seedling establishment and height growth. Higher levels of direct under-canopy light negatively impacted survival for shade-tolerant hemlock and Canada yew, while an increase in diffuse light was linked to a higher probability of survival for yellow birch and height growth for hemlock and Canada yew. Increases in white pine height growth were also significantly associated with a decrease in canopy cover.
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Resource heterogeneity may influence how plants are attacked and respond to consumers in multiple ways. Perhaps a better understanding of how this interaction might limit sapling recruitment in tree populations may be achieved by examining species’ functional responses to herbivores on a continuum of resource availability. Here, we experimentally reduced herbivore pressure on newly established seedlings of two dominant masting trees in 40 canopy gaps, across c. 80 ha of tropical rain forest in central Africa (Korup, Cameroon). Mesh cages were built to protect individual seedlings, and their leaf production and changes in height were followed for 22 months. With more light, herbivores increasingly prevented the less shade-tolerant Microberlinia bisulcata from growing as tall as it could and producing more leaves, indicating an undercompensation. The more shade-tolerant Tetraberlinia bifoliolata was much less affected by herbivores, showing instead near to full compensation for leaf numbers, and a negligible to weak impact of herbivores on its height growth. A stage-matrix model that compared control and caged populations lent evidence for a stronger impact of herbivores on the long-term population dynamics of M. bisulcata than T. bifoliolata. Our results suggest that insect herbivores can contribute to the local coexistence of two abundant tree species at Korup by disproportionately suppressing sapling recruitment of the faster-growing dominant via undercompensation across the light gradient created by canopy disturbances. The functional patterns we have documented here are consistent with current theory, and, because gap formations are integral to forest regeneration, they may be more widely applicable in other tropical forest communities. If so, the interaction between life-history and herbivore impact across light gradients may play a substantial role in tree species coexistence.
Resumo:
To understand succession in dipterocarp rain forest after logging, the structure, species composition and dynamics of primary (PF) and secondary (SF) forest at Danum were compared. In 10 replicate 0.16-ha plots per forest type trees >= 10 cm gbh (3.2 cm dbh) were measured in 1995 and 2001. The SF had been logged in 1988, which allowed successional change to be recorded at 8 and 13 years. In 2001, saplings (1.0-3.1 cm dbh) were measured in nested quadrats. The forest types were similar in mean radiation at 2 m height, and in density, basal area and species number of all trees. Among small (10 <= 31.4) and large ( >= 31.4 cm gbh) trees, in both 1995 and 2001, there were 10- and 3-fold more dipterocarps in SF than PF respectively; and averaging over the two dates, there were correspondingly ca. 10- and 18-fold more pioneers. Mortality was ca. 60% higher in SF than PF, largely due to a seven-fold difference for pioneers: for dipterocarps there was little difference. Recruitment was similar in PF and SE Stem growth rates were 37% higher in SF than PF for all trees, although dipterocarps showed the opposite trend. Among saplings, dipterocarps dominated SF with a 10-fold higher density than in PF. For dipterocarps, the light (LH) and medium-heavy (MHH) canopy hardwoods, and the shade-tolerant, smaller-stature other (OTH) species (e.g. Hopea and Vatica) were in the ratios ca. 40:15:45 in SF and 85: < 1:15 in PF. LHs had higher mortality than OTHs in SE In PF ca. 80% of the saplings were LH: in SF ca. 70% were OTH. The predominance of OTHs in SF is explained by the logging of primary rain forest which was in a likely late stage of recovery from natural disturbance, plus the continuing shaded conditions in the understorey promoted by dense pioneer vegetation. At 13 years after logging succession appeared to be inhibited: LHs were being suppressed but MHHs and OTHs persisted. Succession in lowland dipterocarp, rain forests may therefore depend on the successional state of the primary forest when it is logged. A review of logged versus unlogged studies in Borneo highlights the need for more detailed ecological comparisons.
Resumo:
A 272-ha grove of dominant Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpinioideae) adult trees greater than or equal to 50 cm stem diameter was mapped in its entirety in the southern part of Korup National Park, Cameroon. The approach used an earlier-established 82.5-ha permanent plot with a new surrounding 50-m grid of transect lines. Tree diameters were available from the plot but trees on the grid were recorded as being greater than or equal to 50 cm. The grove consisted of 1028 trees in 2000. Other species occurred within the grove. including the associated subdominants Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. korupensis. Microberlinia bisulcata becomes adult at a stein diameter of c. 50 cm and at an estimated age of 50 y. Three oval-shaped subgroves with dimensions c. 8 50 in x 13 50 in (90 ha) were defined. For two of them (within the plot) tree diameters were available. Subgroves differed in their scales and intensities of spatial tree patterns, and in their size frequency distributions, these suggesting differing past dynamics. The modal scale of clumping was 40-50 m. Seed dispersal by pod ejection (to c. 50 in) was evident from the semi-circles of trees at the grove's edge and from the many internal circles (100-200 m diameter). The grove has the capacity. therefore, to increase at c. 100 m per century. To form its present extent and structure. it is inferred that it expanded and infilled from a possibly smaller area of lower adult-tree density. This possibly happened in three waves of recruitment, each one determined by a period of several intense disturbances. Climate records for Africa show that 1740-50 and 1820-30 were periods of drought, and that 1870-1895 was also regionally very dry. Canopy openings allow the light-demanding and fast-growing ectomycorrhizal M. bisulcata to establish, but successive releases are thought to be required to achieve effective recruitment. Nevertheless, in the last 50 y there were no major events and recruitment in the grove was very poor. This present study leads to a new hypothesis of the role of periods of multiple extreme events being the driving factor for the population dynamics of many large African tree species such as M. bisulcata.
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During the generalization of epileptic seizures, pathological activity in one brain area recruits distant brain structures into joint synchronous discharges. However, it remains unknown whether specific changes in local circuit activity are related to the aberrant recruitment of anatomically distant structures into epileptiform discharges. Further, it is not known whether aberrant areas recruit or entrain healthy ones into pathological activity. Here we study the dynamics of local circuit activity during the spread of epileptiform discharges in the zero-magnesium in vitro model of epilepsy. We employ high-speed multi-photon imaging in combination with dual whole-cell recordings in acute thalamocortical (TC) slices of the juvenile mouse to characterize the generalization of epileptic activity between neocortex and thalamus. We find that, although both structures are exposed to zero-magnesium, the initial onset of focal epileptiform discharge occurs in cortex. This suggests that local recurrent connectivity that is particularly prevalent in cortex is important for the initiation of seizure activity. Subsequent recruitment of thalamus into joint, generalized discharges is coincident with an increase in the coherence of local cortical circuit activity that itself does not depend on thalamus. Finally, the intensity of population discharges is positively correlated between both brain areas. This suggests that during and after seizure generalization not only the timing but also the amplitude of epileptiform discharges in thalamus is entrained by cortex. Together these results suggest a central role of neocortical activity for the onset and the structure of pathological recruitment of thalamus into joint synchronous epileptiform discharges.
Resumo:
Recent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies consistently revealed contributions of fronto-parietal and related networks to the execution of a visuospatial judgment task, the so-called "Clock Task". However, due to the low temporal resolution of fMRI, the exact cortical dynamics and timing of processing during task performance could not be resolved until now. In order to clarify the detailed cortical activity and temporal dynamics, 14 healthy subjects performed an established version of the "Clock Task", which comprises a visuospatial task (angle discrimination) and a control task (color discrimination) with the same stimulus material, in an electroencephalography (EEG) experiment. Based on the time-resolved analysis of network activations (microstate analysis), differences in timing between the angle compared to the color discrimination task were found after sensory processing in a time window starting around 200ms. Significant differences between the two tasks were observed in an analysis window from 192ms to 776ms. We divided this window in two parts: an early phase - from 192ms to ∼440ms, and a late phase - from ∼440ms to 776ms. For both tasks, the order of network activations and the types of networks were the same, but, in each phase, activations for the two conditions were dominated by differing network states with divergent temporal dynamics. Our results provide an important basis for the assessment of deviations in processing dynamics during visuospatial tasks in clinical populations.
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Changes in species composition in two 4–ha plots of lowland dipterocarp rainforest at Danum, Sabah, were measured over ten years (1986 to 1996) for trees greater than or equal to 10 cm girth at breast height (gbh). Each included a lower–slope to ridge gradient. The period lay between two drought events of moderate intensity but the forest showed no large lasting responses, suggesting that its species were well adapted to this regime. Mortality and recruitment rates were not unusual in global or regional comparisons. The forest continued to aggrade from its relatively (for Sabah) low basal area in 1986 and, together with the very open upper canopy structure and an abundance of lianas, this suggests a forest in a late stage of recovery from a major disturbance, yet one continually affected by smaller recent setbacks. Mortality and recruitment rates were not related to population size in 1986, but across subplots recruitment was positively correlated with the density and basal area of small trees (10 to <50 cm gbh) forming the dense understorey. Neither rate was related to topography. While species with larger mean gbh had greater relative growth rates (rgr) than smaller ones, subplot mean recruitment rates were correlated with rgr among small trees. Separating understorey species (typically the Euphorbiaceae) from the overstorey (Dipterocarpaceae) showed marked differences in change in mortality with increasing gbh: in the former it increased, in the latter it decreased. Forest processes are centred on this understorey quasi–stratum. The two replicate plots showed a high correspondence in the mortality, recruitment, population changes and growth rates of small trees for the 49 most abundant species in common to both. Overstorey species had higher rgrs than understorey ones, but both showed considerable ranges in mortality and recruitment rates. The supposed trade–off in traits, viz slower rgr, shade tolerance and lower population turnover in the understorey group versus faster potential growth rate, high light responsiveness and high turnover in the overstorey group, was only partly met, as some understorey species were also very dynamic. The forest at Danum, under such a disturbance–recovery regime, can be viewed as having a dynamic equilibrium in functional and structural terms. A second trade–off in shade–tolerance versus drought–tolerance is suggested for among the understorey species. A two–storey (or vertical component) model is proposed where the understorey–overstorey species’ ratio of small stems (currently 2:1) is maintained by a major feedback process. The understorey appears to be an important part of this forest, giving resilience against drought and protecting the overstorey saplings in the long term. This view could be valuable for understanding forest responses to climate change where drought frequency in Borneo is predicted to intensify in the coming decades.
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The chick chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) is a widely used model for the study of angiogenesis, tumour growth, as well as drug efficacy. In spite of this, little is known about the developmental alteration from its appearance to the time of hatching. In the current study the CAM has been studied by classical stereology and allometry. Expression levels of selected angiogenesis-related molecules were estimated by RT-PCR and cell dynamics assessed by proliferation and apoptosis assays. Absolute CAM volume increased from a low of 0.47 ± 0.11 cm3 at embryonic day 8 (E8) to a high of 2.05 ± 0.27 cm3 at E18, and then decreased to 1.6 ± 0.47 cm3 at E20. On allometric analysis, three growth phases were identifiable. Between E8-13 (phase I), the CAM grew fastest; moderately in phase II (E13-18) but was regressing in phase III (E18-20). The chorion, the mesenchyme and the allantoic layers grew fastest in phase I, but moderately in phase II. The mesenchyme grew slowly in phase III while the chorion and allantois were regressing. Chorionic cell volume increased fastest in phase I and was regressing in phase III. Chorionic capillaries grew steadily in phase I and II but regressed in phase III. Both the chorion and the allantois grew by intrinsic cell proliferation as well as recruitment of cells from the mesenchyme. Cell proliferation was prominent in the allantois and chorion early during development, declined after E17 and apoptosis started mainly in the chorion from E14. VEGFR2 expression peaked at E11 and declined steadily towards E20, VEGF peaked at E13 and E20 while HIF 1α had a peak at E11 and E20. Studies targeting CAM growth and angiogenesis need to take these growth phases into consideration.
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The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.
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This paper highlights the context within which business process outsourcing (BPO) has rapidly grown in India and the critical need to investigate the dynamics of human resource management (HRM) practices and systems in this sector. Using a mixed-method approach involving both in-depth interviews and self-completing questionnaires, we analyze the nature of HRM systems in BPO organizations operating in India. The analysis is based on a sample of 51 BPO companies, a majority of which are located near the capital of New Delhi. The results focus on the nature and structure of work and organization of Indian BPOs, as well as the strategic role played by HRM in such organizations. Furthermore, the findings highlight the way specific HRM practices such as recruitment, performance appraisal, training and development, and compensations are implemented. Our study suggests the existence of formal, structured, and rationalized HRM systems in Indian BPOs. A number of insights related to HRM policies and practices are shared by the HR managers interviewed shedding more light on the inner workings of the Indian BPO companies and their challenges. The analysis provides original and useful information to both academics and practitioners and opens avenues for future research on the nature of HRM systems and practices in the Indian BPO industry.
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The saxicolous lichen vegetation on Ordovician slate rock at the mouth of the River Dovey, South Merionethshire, Wales was described in relation to several environmental variables which include aspect, slope angle, light intensity, rock porosity, rock microtopography and rock stability. Each of the measured environmental variables was shown to influence the lichen vegetation. A number of groups of species which were characteristic of certain environments were described. The data from the saxicolous lichen communities were analysed using multivariate analysis. Qualitative and quantitative data were ordinated, the qualitative data being easier to interpret ecologically, and site number (which reflects distance from the sea and altitude), rock porosity and light intensity were shown to be important environmental variables. A classification of the data was also carried out. The results of the ordination and classification were combined together and a model constructed which describes saxicolous lichen vegetation. A method which uses the model as an aid to the design and interpretation of field experiments is described. The model is applied to an experiment which investigates the effect on growth of transplanting four saxicolous lichens to different aspects. Growth was inhibited in Physcia orbicularis and Parmelia conspersa on rock surfaces of northwest aspect compared with growth on rock surfaces of southeast aspect. Growth was inhibited in Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa on rock surfaces of southeast aspect compared with rock surfaces of northwesr aspect. The growth of Parmelia saxatilis was similar at both southeast and northwesr aspects. Growth inhibition or stimulation in thalli of Physcia orbicularis, Parmelia conspersa and Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa after transplantation was consistent with the predictions of the model while the results for Parmelia saxatilis were not as expected. There was evidence that the frequency of Parmelia conspersa and Parmelia glabratula at a site is related to an effect of the environment on the growth of the thalli. There was also evidence that the frequency of Physcia orbicularis at a site is related to an effect of the environment on the establishment phase of the thalli and for the competitive exclusion of Parmelia saxatilis thalli from southeast facing rock surfaces. The distribution of lichens in relation to height on nine rock surfaces was investigated. It was suggested that the distribution of the lichens was influenced by microclimatic factors which are related to height on the rock, environmental variables which are associated with the rock substratum (e.g. rock porosity and rock microtopography) and by historical factors. The pattern of one crustose and one foliose lichen on four rock surfaces of different aspect and slope was investigated. On the vertically inclined surface the density of small thalli of Buellia aethalea and Parmelia glabratula ssp fuliginosa was correlated with the microtopography of the surface in transects horizontally across the rock surface but not in transects vertically down the rock surface. there were consitent differences in the scale and intensity of pattern horizontally and vertically and also a decrease in the intensity of pattern vertically as the slope of the rock surface decreased. These results were consistent with the suggestion of a gradient of microclimatic factors up the rock. The differences in the scale and intensity of pattern in different size classes in the population were consistent with the changes in pattern with time which have been shown to occur during succession in sand dune and salt marsh vegetation. The relationship between thallus size and height on a rock surface and between the radial growth rate and location of a thallus on a rock surface were investigated. Thalli of Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa were larger at the top of the rock surface than at the bottom and the data were consistent with the suggestion that the colonisation of the rock surface began at the top and, in time, spread downwards. The radial growth rate of the thalli could not be related to variation in slope, porosity, microtopography or directly to height on the rock but could be related to the horizontal location of the thalli on the rock. These results were consistent with the suggestion that here is a gradient of microclimatic factors across the rock surface which is also modified by height on the rock surface. The succession of lichen communities was described by relating the vegetation to rock porosity, rock microtopography, species diversity and rock stability. An initial stage dominated by crustose lichens leads to communities dominated by crustose, foliose and fruticose species. In the late stages of the succession on some rock surfaces crustose species again become dominant. The occurrence of the climax state and cyclic vegetation change in lichen communities are discussed. A mthod of estimating the age structure of a lichen population by relating thallus size to growth rate is described. The sources of error in the method are discussed in some detail and several refinements suggested to increase the accuracy of the method. The population dynamics of Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa was investigated by applying life tables to the age structures of eight different populations. The data were consistent with a period of relatively constant recruitment of thalli into the populations. Mortality in lichen populations was divided into deaths which occur after fragmentation of the thallus and deaths which occur after catastrophic environmental events. THe data suggest that the rate of fragmenting death is dependent on the age of the thallus while the rate of catastrophic death is dependent on the number of thalli established in an age class. A comparison of the numbers of thalli in each age class in the eight populations suggested that population density is controlled firstly, by climate and secondly, by variables related to the local rock surface environment. The rate of fragmenting death is related to the diversity of the community and the influence of diversity together with environmental variables in fluctuating or cyclic changes in population number.
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Bark extracts of the African cherry (Prunus africana) are used to treat benign prostatic hyperplasia. This study examined the effects of commercial bark harvest on population dynamics in the Kilum-Ijim Forest Preserve on Mount Oku, Cameroon and on traditional uses. P. africana is valued for its timber and as fuel although its greatest value is as a traditional medicine for human and animal ailments. Harvest has depleted the resource and has eroded traditional forest protection practices. I constructed matrix models to examine the effects of bark harvest on population structure and on population dynamics in harvested and unharvested populations. Harvesting simulations examined the effect on the population growth rate (λ) with differing levels of mortality of harvest-sized and large trees and differing harvest frequencies. Size class frequencies for the entire forest decreased in a reverse j-shaped curve, indicating adequate recruitment in the absence of harvest. Individual plots showed differences from the overall forest data, suggesting effects of natural and man-made perturbations, particularly due to bark harvest. One plot (harvested in the 1980s) showed a temporal difference in λ and fluctuated around one, due to alternating high and low fruiting years; other unharvested plots showed smaller temporal differences. Harvested plots (harvested illegally in 1997) had values of λ less than one and showed small temporal differences. The control plot also showed λ less than one, due to poor recruitment in the closed canopy forest. The value of λ for the combined data was 0.9931 suggesting a slightly declining population. The elasticity matrix for the combined data indicated the population growth rate was most sensitive to the survival of the large reproductive trees (42.5% of the elasticity). In perturbation analyses, reducing the survival of the large trees caused the largest reductions in λ. Simulations involving harvesting frequency indicated λ returns to pre-harvest conditions if trees are re-harvested after 10–15 years, but only if the large trees are left unharvested. Management scenarios suggest harvest can be sustainable if seedlings and small saplings are planted in the forest and actively managed, although large-scale plantations may be the only feasible option to meet market demand. ^