Prediction of mesophotic coral distributions in the Au‘au Channel, Hawaii

The primary objective of this study was to predict the distribution of mesophotic hard corals in the Au‘au Channel in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). Mesophotic hard corals are light-dependent corals adapted to the low light conditions at approximately 30 to 150 m in depth. Several physical factors potentially influence their spatial distribution, including aragonite saturation, alkalinity, pH, currents, water temperature, hard substrate availability and the availability of light at depth. Mesophotic corals and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) have increasingly been the subject of scientific study because they are being threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors. They are the focus of this spatial modeling effort because the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary (HIHWNMS) is exploring the expansion of its scope—beyond the protection of the North Pacific Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—to include the conservation and management of these ecosystem components. The present study helps to address this need by examining the distribution of mesophotic corals in the Au‘au Channel region. This area is located between the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and includes parts of the Kealaikahiki, Alalākeiki and Kalohi Channels. It is unique, not only in terms of its geology, but also in terms of its physical oceanography and local weather patterns. Several physical conditions make it an ideal place for mesophotic hard corals, including consistently good water quality and clarity because it is flushed by tidal currents semi-diurnally; it has low amounts of rainfall and sediment run-off from the nearby land; and it is largely protected from seasonally strong wind and wave energy. Combined, these oceanographic and weather conditions create patches of comparatively warm, calm, clear waters that remain relatively stable through time. Freely available Maximum Entropy modeling software (MaxEnt 3.3.3e) was used to create four separate maps of predicted habitat suitability for: (1) all mesophotic hard corals combined, (2) Leptoseris, (3) Montipora and (4) Porites genera. MaxEnt works by analyzing the distribution of environmental variables where species are present, so it can find other areas that meet all of the same environmental constraints. Several steps (Figure 0.1) were required to produce and validate four ensemble predictive models (i.e., models with 10 replicates each). Approximately 2,000 georeferenced records containing information about mesophotic coral occurrence and 34 environmental predictors describing the seafloor’s depth, vertical structure, available light, surface temperature, currents and distance from shoreline at three spatial scales were used to train MaxEnt. Fifty percent of the 1,989 records were randomly chosen and set aside to assess each model replicate’s performance using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under the Curve (AUC) values. An additional 1,646 records were also randomly chosen and set aside to independently assess the predictive accuracy of the four ensemble models. Suitability thresholds for these models (denoting where corals were predicted to be present/absent) were chosen by finding where the maximum number of correctly predicted presence and absence records intersected on each ROC curve. Permutation importance and jackknife analysis were used to quantify the contribution of each environmental variable to the four ensemble models.

苋属入侵种的可能分布区预测及相关环境因子分析

苋属（Amaranthus）约40种，世界均有分布。我国有20种，分布很广，其中外来种为17种(11种为入侵种)，危害旱田作物、果树、茶树和蔬菜。反枝苋（Amaranthus retroflexus L.）是苋属入侵种中发生频率最多、分布最广、危害最严重的杂草。本文首先基于反枝苋在世界范围内4207个实际分布点及其对应的气候、地形和土壤三类要素28个环境因子的定量关系，利用主成分分析确定了影响其分布的主要环境因子，据此估测其中心可能分布区和最大可能分布区，并与实际分布点进行比较;然后利用GARP生态位模型和地理信息系统(GIS)对影响苋属8个入侵种地理分布的环境因子进行分析并对其全球可能分布区进行预测，并根据苋属入侵种与环境因子的关系对8个苋属入侵种进行聚类分析;最后基于Receiver Operating Characteristics(ROC)分析对GARP模型及GIS模型对反枝苋全球可能分布区的预测结果进行精度检验和比较，结果表明： (1) GIS模型预测显示14个环境因子在决定反枝苋全球分布格局中起着重要作用。反枝苋中心可能分布区位于新西兰南部、澳大利亚东南部、南美洲北部少数地区、北美洲西北部及东南部部分地区、欧洲大部分地区和中国东南部。最大可能分布区位于南美洲中南部、北美洲大部分、非洲北部小部分、澳大利亚南部及北部少数区域、欧洲大部分地区和亚洲大部分地区及中国除西藏、青海、新疆、四川西部以外的地区。中心可能分布区的预测结果与实际分布点吻合较好，而最大可能分布区则过于广阔。 (2) GARP模型预测显示14个环境因子中雨日频率，极端低温，海拔这三个环境因子的影响较为重要，是苋属8个入侵种分布的主要限制因子。聚类分析表明8种苋属入侵种按欧式距离的长度可分为三类：第一类：反枝苋、凹头苋;第二类：刺苋、皱果苋、尾穗苋;第三类：绿穗苋、白苋、北美苋。 ROC分析结果显示GARP模型对反枝苋的可能分布区模拟效果（AUCGARP=0.857）好于GIS模型，其中GIS模型对反枝苋中心可能分布区的模拟效果(AUCGIS-CENTER=0.832)好于最大可能分布区(AUCGIS-MAX=0.778)。 苋属8个入侵种均有分布的地区为澳大利亚沿海地区，新西兰，中国东南沿海，欧洲西部，南美洲部分国家，美国，非洲中部。 (3)两种模型所预测的反枝苋的可能分布区有很大程度的重合性，GARP模型预测的可能分布区大于GIS模型预测出的中心可能分布区，但小于GIS模型预测出的最大可能分布区，且和实际分布点拟合程度较好。

N-best error simulation for training spoken dialogue systems

A recent trend in spoken dialogue research is the use of reinforcement learning to train dialogue systems in a simulated environment. Past researchers have shown that the types of errors that are simulated can have a significant effect on simulated dialogue performance. Since modern systems typically receive an N-best list of possible user utterances, it is important to be able to simulate a full N-best list of hypotheses. This paper presents a new method for simulating such errors based on logistic regression, as well as a new method for simulating the structure of N-best lists of semantics and their probabilities, based on the Dirichlet distribution. Off-line evaluations show that the new Dirichlet model results in a much closer match to the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of the live data. Experiments also show that the logistic model gives confusions that are closer to the type of confusions observed in live situations. The hope is that these new error models will be able to improve the resulting performance of trained dialogue systems. © 2012 IEEE.

Statistical Evaluation of the Predictive Toxicology Challenge 2000-2001

Toivonen, H., Srinivasan, A., King, R. D., Kramer, S. and Helma, C. (2003) Statistical Evaluation of the Predictive Toxicology Challenge 2000-2001. Bioinformatics 19: 1183-1193

Homology Induction: the use of machine learning to improve sequence similarity searches

Karwath, A. King, R. Homology induction: the use of machine learning to improve sequence similarity searches. BMC Bioinformatics. 23rd April 2002. 3:11 Additional File Describes the title organims species declaration in one string [http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/supplementary/1471- 2105-3-11-S1.doc] Sponsorship: Andreas Karwath and Ross D. King were supported by the EPSRC grant GR/L62849.

Toward a comprehensive care of HIV patients: Finding a strategy to detect depression in a Spanish HIV cohort

Depression is a common but frequently undiagnosed feature in individuals with HIV infection. To find a strategy to detect depression in a non-specialized clinical setting, the overall performance of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the depression identification questions proposed by the European AIDS Clinical Society (EACS) guidelines were assessed in a descriptive cross-sectional study of 113 patients with HIV infection. The clinician asked the two screening questions that were proposed under the EACS guidelines and requested patients to complete the HADS. A psychiatrist or psychologist administered semi-structured clinical interviews to yield psychiatric diagnoses of depression (gold standard). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for the HADS-Depression (HADS-D) subscale indicated that the best sensitivity and specificity were obtained between the cut-off points of 5 and 8, and the ROC curve for the HADS-Total (HADS-T) indicated that the best cut-off points were between 12 and 14. There were no statistically significant differences in the correlations of the EACS (considering positive responses to one [A] or both questions [B]), the HADS-D ≥ 8 or the HADS-T ≥ 12 with the gold standard. The study concludes that both approaches (the two EACS questions and the HADS-D subscale) are appropriate depression-screening methods in HIV population. We believe that using the EACS-B and the HADS-D subscale in a two-step approach allows for rapid, assumable and accurate clinical diagnosis in non-psychiatric hospital settings.

Linear structures in mammographic images: detection and classification

R. Zwiggelaar, S.M. Astley, C.J. Taylor and C.R.M. Boggis, 'Linear structures in mammographic images: detection and classification', IEEE Transaction on Medical Imaging 23 (9), 1077-1086 (2004)

Contour Generator Points for Threshold Selection and a Novel Photo-Consistency Measure for Space Carving

Space carving has emerged as a powerful method for multiview scene reconstruction. Although a wide variety of methods have been proposed, the quality of the reconstruction remains highly-dependent on the photometric consistency measure, and the threshold used to carve away voxels. In this paper, we present a novel photo-consistency measure that is motivated by a multiset variant of the chamfer distance. The new measure is robust to high amounts of within-view color variance and also takes into account the projection angles of back-projected pixels. Another critical issue in space carving is the selection of the photo-consistency threshold used to determine what surface voxels are kept or carved away. In this paper, a reliable threshold selection technique is proposed that examines the photo-consistency values at contour generator points. Contour generators are points that lie on both the surface of the object and the visual hull. To determine the threshold, a percentile ranking of the photo-consistency values of these generator points is used. This improved technique is applicable to a wide variety of photo-consistency measures, including the new measure presented in this paper. Also presented in this paper is a method to choose between photo-consistency measures, and voxel array resolutions prior to carving using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Comparative evaluation of serologic tests for celiac disease: a European initiative toward standardization.

BACKGROUND: Serologic methods have been used widely to test for celiac disease and have gained importance in diagnostic definition and in new epidemiologic findings. However, there is no standardization, and there are no reference protocols and materials. METHODS: The European working group on Serological Screening for Celiac Disease has defined robust noncommercial test protocols for immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgA gliadin antibodies and for IgA autoantibodies against endomysium and tissue transglutaminase. Standard curves were linear in the decisive range, and intra-assay variation coefficients were less than 5% to 10%. Calibration was performed with a group reference serum. Joint cutoff limits were used. Seven laboratories took part in the final collaborative study on 252 randomized sera classified by histology (103 pediatric and adult patients with active celiac disease, 89 disease control subjects, and 60 blood donors). RESULTS: IgA autoantibodies against endomysium and tissue transglutaminase rendered superior sensitivity (90% and 93%, respectively) and specificity (99% and 95%, respectively) over IgA and IgG gliadin antibodies. Tissue transglutaminase antibody testing showed superior receiver operating characteristic performance compared with gliadin antibodies. The K values for interlaboratory reproducibility showed superiority for IgA endomysium (0.93) in comparison with tissue transglutaminase antibodies (0.83) and gliadin antibodies (0.82 for IgG, 0.62 for IgA). CONCLUSIONS: Basic criteria of standardization and quality assessment must be fulfilled by any given test protocol proposed for serologic investigation of celiac disease. The working group has produced robust test protocols and reference materials available for standardization to further improve reliability of serologic testing for celiac disease.

Reliability of antitransglutaminase antibodies as predictors of gluten-free diet compliance in adult celiac disease.

OBJECTIVE: Strict lifelong compliance to a gluten-free diet (GFD) minimizes the long-term risk of mortality, especially from lymphoma, in adult celiac disease (CD). Although serum IgA antitransglutaminase (IgA-tTG-ab), like antiendomysium (IgA-EMA) antibodies, are sensitive and specific screening tests for untreated CD, their reliability as predictors of strict compliance to and dietary transgressions from a GFD is not precisely known. We aimed to address this question in consecutively treated adult celiacs. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, 95 non-IgA deficient adult (median age: 41 yr) celiacs on a GFD for at least 1 yr (median: 6 yr) were subjected to 1) a dietician-administered inquiry to pinpoint and quantify the number and levels of transgressions (classified as moderate or large, using as a cutoff value the median gluten amount ingested in the overall noncompliant patients of the series) over the previous 2 months, 2) a search for IgA-tTG-ab and -EMA, and 3) perendoscopic duodenal biopsies. The ability of both antibodies to discriminate celiacs with and without detected transgressions was described using receiver operating characteristic curves and quantified as to sensitivity and specificity, according to the level of transgressions. RESULTS: Forty (42%) patients strictly adhered to a GFD, 55 (58%) had committed transgressions, classified as moderate (< or = 18 g of gluten/2 months; median number 6) in 27 and large (>18 g; median number 69) in 28. IgA-tTG-ab and -EMA specificity (proportion of correct recognition of strictly compliant celiacs) was 0.97 and 0.98, respectively, and sensitivity (proportion of correct recognition of overall, moderate, and large levels of transgressions) was 0.52, 0.31, and 0.77, and 0.62, 0.37, and 0.86, respectively. IgA-tTG-ab and -EMA titers were correlated (p < 0.001) to transgression levels (r = 0.560 and R = 0.631, respectively) and one to another (p < 0.001) in the whole patient population (r = 0.834, N = 84) as in the noncompliant (r = 0.915, N = 48) group. Specificity and sensitivity of IgA-tTG-ab and IgA-EMA for recognition of total villous atrophy in patients under a GFD were 0.90 and 0.91, and 0.60 and 0.73, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In adult CD patients on a GFD, IgA-tTG-ab are poor predictors of dietary transgressions. Their negativity is a falsely secure marker of strict diet compliance.

Comparative analyses of seven algorithms for copy number variant identification from single nucleotide polymorphism arrays.

Determination of copy number variants (CNVs) inferred in genome wide single nucleotide polymorphism arrays has shown increasing utility in genetic variant disease associations. Several CNV detection methods are available, but differences in CNV call thresholds and characteristics exist. We evaluated the relative performance of seven methods: circular binary segmentation, CNVFinder, cnvPartition, gain and loss of DNA, Nexus algorithms, PennCNV and QuantiSNP. Tested data included real and simulated Illumina HumHap 550 data from the Singapore cohort study of the risk factors for Myopia (SCORM) and simulated data from Affymetrix 6.0 and platform-independent distributions. The normalized singleton ratio (NSR) is proposed as a metric for parameter optimization before enacting full analysis. We used 10 SCORM samples for optimizing parameter settings for each method and then evaluated method performance at optimal parameters using 100 SCORM samples. The statistical power, false positive rates, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve residuals were evaluated by simulation studies. Optimal parameters, as determined by NSR and ROC curve residuals, were consistent across datasets. QuantiSNP outperformed other methods based on ROC curve residuals over most datasets. Nexus Rank and SNPRank have low specificity and high power. Nexus Rank calls oversized CNVs. PennCNV detects one of the fewest numbers of CNVs.

Functional Variants in Notch Pathway Genes NCOR2, NCSTN, and MAML2 Predict Survival of Patients with Cutaneous Melanoma.

BACKGROUND: The Notch signaling pathway is constitutively activated in human cutaneous melanoma to promote growth and aggressive metastatic potential of primary melanoma cells. Therefore, genetic variants in Notch pathway genes may affect the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma patients. METHODS: We identified 6,256 SNPs in 48 Notch genes in 858 cutaneous melanoma patients included in a previously published cutaneous melanoma genome-wide association study dataset. Multivariate and stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression and false-positive report probability corrections were performed to evaluate associations between putative functional SNPs and cutaneous melanoma disease-specific survival. Receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed, and area under the curve was used to assess the classification performance of the model. RESULTS: Four putative functional SNPs of Notch pathway genes had independent and joint predictive roles in survival of cutaneous melanoma patients. The most significant variant was NCOR2 rs2342924 T>C (adjusted HR, 2.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.73-4.23; Ptrend = 9.62 × 10(-7)), followed by NCSTN rs1124379 G>A, NCOR2 rs10846684 G>A, and MAML2 rs7953425 G>A (Ptrend = 0.005, 0.005, and 0.013, respectively). The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that area under the curve was significantly increased after adding the combined unfavorable genotype score to the model containing the known clinicopathologic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that SNPs in Notch pathway genes may be predictors of cutaneous melanoma disease-specific survival. IMPACT: Our discovery offers a translational potential for using genetic variants in Notch pathway genes as a genotype score of biomarkers for developing an improved prognostic assessment and personalized management of cutaneous melanoma patients.

Climate change-linked range expansion of Nathusius' pipistrelle bat, Pipistrellus nathusii (Keyserling & Blasius, 1839)

Aim To examine the effect of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of Pipistrellus nathusii (Nathusius' pipistrelle) in the United Kingdom (UK).Location We modelled habitat and climatic associations of P. nathusii in the UK and applied this model to the species' historical range in continental Europe.Methods A binomial logistic regression model was constructed relating the occurrence of P. nathusii to climate and habitat characteristics using historical species occurrence records (1940-2006) and CORINE land cover data. This model was applied to historical and projected climate data to examine changes in suitable range (1940-2080) of this species. We tested the predictive ability of the model with known records in the UK after 2006 and applied the model to the species' known range in Europe.Results The distribution of P. nathusii was related positively to the area of water bodies, woodland and small areas of urbanization, and negatively related to the area of peat/heathland. Species records were associated with higher minimum temperatures, low seasonal variation in temperature and intermediate rainfall. We found that suitable areas have existed in the UK since the 1940s and that these have expanded. The model had high predictive power when applied to new records after 2006, with a correct classification rate of 70%, estimated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Based on climate projections, our model suggests a potential twofold increase in the area suitable for P. nathusii in the UK by 2050. The single most influential climate variable contributing to range increase was the projected increase in minimum temperature. When applied to Europe, the model predictions had best predictive capability of known records in western areas of the species' range, where P. nathusii is present during the winter.Main conclusions We show that a mobile, migratory species has adapted its range in response to recent climate change on a continental scale. We believe this may be the first study to demonstrate a case of range change linked to contemporary climate change in a mammal species in Europe.

CD133 expression predicts for non-response to chemotherapy in colorectal cancer

The cancer stem cell hypothesis may explain why conventional chemotherapies are unable to fully eradicate cancers. In this study, we examined both the prognostic and predictive significance of putative cancer stem cell markers in colorectal cancer. In this study, immunohistochemistry for three candidate cancer stem cell markers (CD133, Oct-4 and Sox-2) and for six other postulated prognostic markers (CK7, CK20, Cox-2, Ki-67, p27 and p53) were performed using tissue microarrays containing 501 primary colorectal cancer cases. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was used to determine cut-off scores for positive protein expression. Multivariate analysis revealed that positive expression for CD133 and Oct-4 was associated with significantly worse survival in patients treated by surgery alone (P=0.023 and P

The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis.

Objective To develop a provisional definition for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis (DM) based on the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation juvenile DM core set of variables. Methods Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries achieved consensus on 128 difficult patient profiles as clinically improved or not improved using a stepwise approach (patient's rating, statistical analysis, definition selection). Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the “gold standard measure,” chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa agreement for candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Definitions with kappa values >0.8 were multiplied by the face validity score to select the top definitions. Results The top definition of improvement was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%, which cannot be muscle strength. The second-highest scoring definition was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 2 of the remaining worsening by more than 25%, which cannot be muscle strength (definition P1 selected by the International Myositis Assessment and Clinical Studies group). The third is similar to the second with the maximum amount of worsening set to 30%. This indicates convergent validity of the process. Conclusion We propose a provisional data-driven definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians, which incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set variables in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in juvenile DM.