Uso y abuso de las TIC en la población escolarizada burgalesa 10-18 años : relación con otras variables psicosociales.

Expone como dar una respuesta a algunos de los interrogantes sobre las consecuencias que las tecnologías pueden estar generando en la población más joven. La finalidad consiste en aclarar la situación real, proponer alternativas y dar una respuesta educativa, preventiva y orientadora tanto a los jóvenes como a sus familias que se ven desbordadas ante un fenómeno novedoso. Ante esta situación se delimita el nivel en que se puede considerar a las nuevas tecnologías como una adicción, en averiguar hasta que punto se adhieren y asemejan a las adicciones más tradicionales o conocidas y si, realmente estas tecnologías están generando pautas dependientes o desestructurantes. Se centra fundamentalmente en los factores de tipo social, los individuales y del entorno para realizar el diagnóstico situacional que ayudará a crear estrategias educativas y preventivas. El estudio se dirige a la población escolarizada en Burgos con edades comprendidas entre los 10 y los 18 años, por lo tanto la población es el alumnado que esta cursando quinto y sexto curso de Educación Primaria, Educación Secundaria Obligatoria, Bachillerato, Ciclos Formativos de Grado Medio y Garantía Social. La metodología de trabajo utilizada es un cuestionario individual aplicado colectivamente en el grupo de clase bajo la dirección de un miembro del equipo investigador. El tamaño de la muestra es de 2063 alumnos pertenecientes a 107 grupos de clase, en 27 centros educativos. El tipo de muestreo es por conglomerados, estratificado y de fijación proporcional estratificado por cuotas de cursos y nivel educativo, población y tipo de centro. El nivel de confianza de los datos generales es superior al 95,5 por ciento y el margen de error es inferior al 2,11 por ciento. En el cuestionario constan preguntas referidas a: 1. Datos sociodemográficos: edad sexo, convivencia familiar, datos académicos, actividades extraescolares y uso del tiempo libre; 2. Datos cualitativos y cuantitativos referidos al uso de las Tecnologías de la Información y de la Comunicación (TIC): a) televisión, b) ordenador, Internet, c) videoconsola, d) reproductores de música, e) teléfono móvil; 3. Autopercepción del uso de las TIC; 4. Valoración de diversos aspectos de autopercepción personal: a) autopercepción del uso de juegos electrónicos, ordenador, videoconsola, Internet, chat, televisión, b) autopercepción del éxito y los resultados, c) autopercepción del estudio y de la institución académica, d) autopercepción del uso del tiempo, actividades y aficiones, e) autopercepción del dinero que se maneja, f) autopercepción de las relaciones con la familia, g) autopercepción de los amigos y relaciones sociales. Como resultados finales se observa que las nuevas tecnologías se usan de una forma muy frecuente, especialmente los soportes para oír música y ver la televisión. Se hace de forma más continuada, con más asiduidad y para múltiples tareas de la vida cotidiana, haciendo incidencia en la importante presencia de todo lo relacionado con la informática. La investigación nos sitúa ante una amplia mayoría de jóvenes que tienen una relación bien ajustada con las nuevas tecnologías. Estos jóvenes muestran respuestas normalizadas, no solamente en las preguntas referentes a las TIC, sino también en el resto de las preguntas realizadazas un grupo amplio de jóvenes bien integrados, y como es de recibo, nos ofrecen respuestas reflejo de sus situación actual. En este sentido son destacables las preguntas relacionadas con los amigos y no desean cambiarlos. Los encuestados no echan la culpa de sus problemas a los demás, la mayoría sabe que tiene que esforzarse en su carrera profesional para tener éxito. Son jóvenes que en su mayoría, ni están ni se sienten solos, que mantienen las aficiones a lo largo del tiempo, se paran a pensar en el sentido de lo que están haciendo y que incluso, a veces, hacen regalos a su familia con su propia paga. En cuanto al uso de los diferentes soportes tecnológicos (teléfonos móviles, Internet, juegos) es mayoritario e incluso masivo.

Variables que afectan las actitudes de los profesores hacia la integraci??n escolar de alumnos inmigrantes extranjeros (NEE) en la comarca minera del Bierzo

Realizar una revisi??n te??rica sobre las investigaciones m??s recientes de las actitudes en general y frente a los inmigrantes en particular. Realizar una evaluaci??n de las variables espec??ficas que influyen en las actitudes de los maestros y maestras en formaci??n y en ejercicio hacia la integraci??n escolar de inmigrantes extranjeros de la zona del Bierzo. Realizar un estudio comparativoentre las actitudes de los profesores y los futuros profesores. Extraer implicaciones y sugerencias sobre la intervenci??n psicoeducativa en relaci??n con la mejora de las actitudes hacia la integraci??n escolar de este tipo de alumnos. Profesores y maestros de todos los centros p??blicos y privados de niveles no universitarios del Bierzo. Cuestionario de informaciones generales y dos escalas de actitudes del profesorado hacia la integraci??n escolar de alumnos inmigrantes extranjeros, un instrumento escalar y de diferencial sem??ntico. El an??lisis de datos se realiz?? con los m??dulos del paquete estad??stico CSS. Las actitudes de los profesores y maestros en ejercicio respecto a la integraci??n de alumnos inmigrantes extranjeros en las aulas ordinarias son mayoritariamente positivas Existen variables que afectan a las actitudes de los mismos, consideran la necesidad de formaci??n e informaci??n en esa l??nea. Los alumnos de magisterio por el contrario, presentan una actitud mayoritariamente negativa debido a la influencia de los estereotipos y la falta de contacto real con las aulas. Las recomendaciones e implicaciones que se extraen son la necesidad de planificar una formaci??n espec??fica y planes de formaci??n en los propios centros, as?? como la consideraci??n de las actitudes de los profesores universitarios que forman a los futuros docentes. La formaci??n espec??fica de los equipos psicopedag??gicos ser??a necesaria como nucleo catalizador y dinamizador de la introducci??n de innovaciones exitosas que aumenten la motivaci??n del profesorado y que estos perciban el trabajo con alumnos inmigrantes extranjeros como un reto atractivo y deseable que puede enriquecerles profesional y humanamente.

Geostatistics for constrained variables: positive data, compositions and probabilities. Applications to environmental hazard monitoring

Aquesta tesi estudia com estimar la distribució de les variables regionalitzades l'espai mostral i l'escala de les quals admeten una estructura d'espai Euclidià. Apliquem el principi del treball en coordenades: triem una base ortonormal, fem estadística sobre les coordenades de les dades, i apliquem els output a la base per tal de recuperar un resultat en el mateix espai original. Aplicant-ho a les variables regionalitzades, obtenim una aproximació única consistent, que generalitza les conegudes propietats de les tècniques de kriging a diversos espais mostrals: dades reals, positives o composicionals (vectors de components positives amb suma constant) són tractades com casos particulars. D'aquesta manera, es generalitza la geostadística lineal, i s'ofereix solucions a coneguts problemes de la no-lineal, tot adaptant la mesura i els criteris de representativitat (i.e., mitjanes) a les dades tractades. L'estimador per a dades positives coincideix amb una mitjana geomètrica ponderada, equivalent a l'estimació de la mediana, sense cap dels problemes del clàssic kriging lognormal. El cas composicional ofereix solucions equivalents, però a més permet estimar vectors de probabilitat multinomial. Amb una aproximació bayesiana preliminar, el kriging de composicions esdevé també una alternativa consistent al kriging indicador. Aquesta tècnica s'empra per estimar funcions de probabilitat de variables qualsevol, malgrat que sovint ofereix estimacions negatives, cosa que s'evita amb l'alternativa proposada. La utilitat d'aquest conjunt de tècniques es comprova estudiant la contaminació per amoníac a una estació de control automàtic de la qualitat de l'aigua de la conca de la Tordera, i es conclou que només fent servir les tècniques proposades hom pot detectar en quins instants l'amoni es transforma en amoníac en una concentració superior a la legalment permesa.

Integration of knowledge-based, qualitative and numeric tools for real time dynamic systems supervision

The proposal presented in this thesis is to provide designers of knowledge based supervisory systems of dynamic systems with a framework to facilitate their tasks avoiding interface problems among tools, data flow and management. The approach is thought to be useful to both control and process engineers in assisting their tasks. The use of AI technologies to diagnose and perform control loops and, of course, assist process supervisory tasks such as fault detection and diagnose, are in the scope of this work. Special effort has been put in integration of tools for assisting expert supervisory systems design. With this aim the experience of Computer Aided Control Systems Design (CACSD) frameworks have been analysed and used to design a Computer Aided Supervisory Systems (CASSD) framework. In this sense, some basic facilities are required to be available in this proposed framework: ·

An efficient flux difference splitting algorithm for unsteady duct flows of a real gas

A numerical scheme is presented for the solution of the Euler equations of compressible flow of a real gas in a single spatial coordinate. This includes flow in a duct of variable cross-section, as well as flow with slab, cylindrical or spherical symmetry, as well as the case of an ideal gas, and can be useful when testing codes for the two-dimensional equations governing compressible flow of a real gas. The resulting scheme requires an average of the flow variables across the interface between cells, and this average is chosen to be the arithmetic mean for computational efficiency, which is in contrast to the usual “square root” averages found in this type of scheme. The scheme is applied with success to five problems with either slab or cylindrical symmetry and for a number of equations of state. The results compare favourably with the results from other schemes.

An efficient numerical method for compressible flows of a real gas using arithmetic averaging

An efficient numerical method is presented for the solution of the Euler equations governing the compressible flow of a real gas. The scheme is based on the approximate solution of a specially constructed set of linearised Riemann problems. An average of the flow variables across the interface between cells is required, and this is chosen to be the arithmetic mean for computational efficiency, which is in contrast to the usual square root averaging. The scheme is applied to a test problem for five different equations of state.

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.

Real estate capital flows and transitional economies

reign real estate capital was a major source of financing domestic property market office construction in Central Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. During the 1990s, over 800 office buildings were either newly constructed or refurbished in Budapest, Prague and Warsaw. The primary focus of this analysis is explaining the spatial construction and redevelopment patterns of the post-1989 office buildings in these cities. Secondarily, we analyze the correlation of foreign direct investment flows to annual construction of office buildings. We seek to explain the location of new or refurbished office buildings in the central business district (CBD) or in non-CBD locations in terms of the effect of time, size of property and other variables, and test whether there is a positive correlation relationship of foreign direct investment flows and new office construction or refurbishment. Integrating relevant foreign direct investment (FDI), economic geography and property theories in the research, the authors attempt to bridge existing gaps in the literature.

Forecasting UK real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach

This paper examines the significance of widely used leading indicators of the UK economy for predicting the cyclical pattern of commercial real estate performance. The analysis uses monthly capital value data for UK industrials, offices and retail from the Investment Property Databank (IPD). Prospective economic indicators are drawn from three sources namely, the series used by the US Conference Board to construct their UK leading indicator and the series deployed by two private organisations, Lombard Street Research and NTC Research, to predict UK economic activity. We first identify turning points in the capital value series adopting techniques employed in the classical business cycle literature. We then estimate probit models using the leading economic indicators as independent variables and forecast the probability of different phases of capital values, that is, periods of declining and rising capital values. The forecast performance of the models is tested and found to be satisfactory. The predictability of lasting directional changes in property performance represents a useful tool for real estate investment decision-making.

Risk management and the corporate real estate portfolio

In a global business economy, firms have a broad range of corporate real estate needs. During the past decade, multiple strategies and tactics have emerged in the corporate real estate community for meeting those needs. We propose here a framework for analysing and prioritising the various types of risk inherent in corporate real estate decisions. From a business strategy perspective, corporate real estate must serve needs beyond the simple one of shelter for the workforce and production process. Certain uses are strategic in that they allow access to externalities, embody the business strategy, or provide entrée to new markets. Other uses may be tactical, in that they arise from business activities of relatively short duration or provide an opportunity to pre-empt competitors. Still other corporate real estate uses can be considered “core” to the existence of the business enterprise. These might be special use properties or may be generic buildings that have become embodiments of the organisation’s culture. We argue that a multi-dimensional matrix approach organised around three broad themes and nine sub-categories allow the decision-maker to organise and evaluate choices with an acceptable degree of rigor and thoroughness. The three broad themes are Use (divided into Core, Cyclical or Casual) – Asset Type (which can be Strategic, Specialty or Generic) and Market Environment (which ranges from Mature Domestic to Emerging Economy). Proper understanding of each of these groupings brings critical variables to the fore and allows for efficient resource allocation and enhanced risk management.

Understanding the barriers to real estate investment in developing economies

Baum (2008a) related the number of real estate funds investing in developing economies to simple economic and demographic variables, and showed that, while the popularity of markets was explained by population and GDP per capita, some countries receive more or less investment than the model predicted. Why is this? In this paper we undertake a literature review to identify the barriers which inhibit international real estate investment. We test our initial findings by questioning property investment professionals through semi-structured interviews. By doing this we were able to verify our list of barriers, identify those barriers which are most likely to affect real estate investors, and to indicate whether there are any real estate-specific variables that create barriers which have not received any academic attention. We show that distortions in international capital flows may be explained by a combination of these formal and informal barriers.

The dynamics of asset prices and transaction activity in illiquid markets: the case of private commercial real estate

This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implication of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, ‘return chasing’ behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the 10 market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a ‘price pressure’ effect. Although there is some evidence of return chasing behaviour, the short timescales involved suggest this finding may be due to delayed recording of flows relative to returns given the difficulties of market entry. We find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides pricing information.

Fuzzy analysis: a vague way of dealing with uncertainty in real estate analysis?

Risk and uncertainty are, to say the least, poorly considered by most individuals involved in real estate analysis - in both development and investment appraisal. Surveyors continue to express 'uncertainty' about the value (risk) of using relatively objective methods of analysis to account for these factors. These methods attempt to identify the risk elements more explicitly. Conventionally this is done by deriving probability distributions for the uncontrolled variables in the system. A suggested 'new' way of "being able to express our uncertainty or slight vagueness about some of the qualitative judgements and not entirely certain data required in the course of the problem..." uses the application of fuzzy logic. This paper discusses and demonstrates the terminology and methodology of fuzzy analysis. In particular it attempts a comparison of the procedures with those used in 'conventional' risk analysis approaches and critically investigates whether a fuzzy approach offers an alternative to the use of probability based analysis for dealing with aspects of risk and uncertainty in real estate analysis

Domestic and foreign bias in global real estate mutual fund investment allocations

The purpose of the study is to seek a better understanding of the investment allocation behaviour of the real estate mutual funds by focusing on asset allocation at the country level. Analysing the country allocation of 553 real estate mutual funds domiciled in 20 countries, we attempt to trace how investment bias exists across countries and affects their country allocations. Our results evidence the existence of disproportionate country allocation to their domestic markets (domestic bias) and to each foreign market (foreign bias). We also find each bias is influenced by different sets of variables: real estate market influences for domestic bias and familiarity influences for foreign bias. This difference in factors influential for each bias in part explains the conflated relationship between the two biases.

The gender gap in real estate sales: negotiation skill or agent selection?

This study examines differences in net selling price for residential real estate across male and female agents. A sample of 2,020 home sales transactions from Fulton County, Georgia are analyzed in a two-stage least squares, geospatial autoregressive corrected, semi-log hedonic model to test for gender and gender selection effects. Although agent gender seems to play a role in naïve models, its role becomes inconclusive as variables controlling for possible price and time on market expectations of the buyers and sellers are introduced to the models. Clear differences in real estate sales prices, time on market, and agent incomes across genders are unlikely due to differences in negotiation performance between genders or the mix of genders in a two-agent negotiation. The evidence suggests an interesting alternative to agent performance: that buyers and sellers with different reservation price and time on market expectations, such as those selling foreclosure homes, tend to select agents along gender lines.