Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.

Dynamic higher order expectations

In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to formhigher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectationsmodels in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The frameworkis used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectationsidentified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finitedimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive andpresents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricingmodel with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.

Beyond tokenism? Community-led planning and rational choices: findings from participants in local agenda-setting at the neighbourhood scale in England

The article confronts some key issues raised in the literature on public participation via a series of interrogatory questions drawn from rational choice theory. These are considered in relation to the design and process of public participation opportunities in planning and wider processes of local governance at the neighbourhood scale. In doing this, the article draws on recent research that has looked in some depth at a form of community-led planning (CLP) in England. The motives and expectations of participants, the abilities of participants, as well as the conditions in which participation takes place are seen as important factors. It is contended that the issues raised by rational choice theory are pertinent to emerging efforts to engage communities. As such, the article concludes that advocates of public participation or community engagement should not be afraid of responding to the challenges posed by questions of motive and reward of participants if lasting and worthwhile participation is to be established. Indeed, questions such as 'what's in it for me?' should be regarded as legitimate, necessary and indeed standard, in order to co-devise meaningful and durable participation opportunities and appropriate institutional environments. However, it is also maintained that wider considerations and capacity questions will also need to be confronted if participation is to become embedded as part of participatory neighbourhood-scale planning.

The impact of price expectations on consumer's behavior in frequently purchased goods markets: empirical evidence and implications

Este trabalho investiga como os padrões de compras de consumidores de bens estocáveis são afetados por suas expectativas de preços. Usando um modelo dinâmico padrão de maximização da utilidade, deriva-se uma expressão analítica para as compras dos consumidores como uma função das suas expectativas em relação aos preços futuros. Em seguida, uma versão mais tratável do modelo é construída, de forma a ilustrar graficamente como os diferentes tipos de expectativas de preços implicam diferentes padrões de compras dos consumidores. Além disso, na aplicação empírica, investigo qual o modelo de expectativas de preços, entre aqueles comumente utilizados na literatura, é consistente com os dados. Por fim, encontra-se suficiente heterogeneidade em expectativa de preços dos consumidores. Mostra-se que famílias de pequeno porte acreditam que os preços seguem um processo de Markov de primeira ordem, enquanto famílias de alta renda são racionais.

Inattention in individual expectations

This paper investigates the expectations formation process of economic agents about inflation rate. Using the Market Expectations System of Central Bank of Brazil, we perceive that agents do not update their forecasts every period and that even agents who update disagree in their predictions. We then focus on the two most popular types of inattention models that have been discussed in the recent literature: sticky-information and noisy-information models. Estimating a hybrid model we find that, although formally fitting the Brazilian data, it happens at the cost of a much higher degree of information rigidity than observed.

Inattention in Individual Expectations

This paper investigates the expectations formation process of economic agents about infl ation rate. Using the Market Expectations System of Central Bank of Brazil, we perceive that agents do not update their forecasts every period and that even agents who update disagree in their predictions. We then focus on the two most popular types of inattention models that have been discussed in the recent literature: sticky-information and noisy-information models. Estimating a hybrid model we fi nd that, although formally fi tting the Brazilian data, it happens at the cost of a much higher degree of information rigidity than observed.

A rational protocol for the successful crystallization of l-amino-acid oxidase from Bothrops atrox

Despite the valuable contributions of robotics and high-throughput approaches to protein crystallization, the role of an experienced crystallographer in the evaluation and rationalization of a crystallization process is still crucial to obtaining crystals suitable for X-ray diffraction measurements. In this work, the difficult task of crystallizing the flavoenzyme l-amino-acid oxidase purified from Bothrops atrox snake venom was overcome by the development of a protocol that first required the identification of a non-amorphous precipitate as a promising crystallization condition followed by the implementation of a methodology that combined crystallization in the presence of oil and seeding techniques. Crystals were obtained and a complete data set was collected to 2.3 A resolution. The crystals belonged to space group P2(1), with unit-cell parameters a = 73.64, b = 123.92, c = 105.08 A, beta = 96.03 degrees. There were four protein subunits in the asymmetric unit, which gave a Matthews coefficient V (M) of 2.12 A3 Da-1, corresponding to 42% solvent content. The structure has been solved by molecular-replacement techniques.

Rational Design and 3D-Pharmacophore Mapping of 5 `-Thiourea-Substituted alpha-Thymidine Analogues as Mycobacterial TMPK Inhibitors

Thymidine monophosphate kinase (TMPK) has emerged as an attractive target for developing inhibitors of Mycobacterium tuberculosis growth. In this study the receptor-independent (RI) 4D-QSAR formalism has been used to develop QSAR models and corresponding 3D-pharmacophores for a set of 5`-thiourea-substituted alpha-thymidine inhibitors. Models were developed for the entire training set and for a subset of the training set consisting of the most potent inhibitors. The optimized (RI) 4D-QSAR models are statistically significant (r(2) = 0.90, q(2) = 0.83 entire set, r(2) = 0.86, q(2) = 0.80 high potency subset) and also possess good predictivity based on test set predictions. The most and least potent inhibitors, in their respective postulated active conformations derived from the models, were docked in the active site of the TMPK crystallographic structure. There is a solid consistency between the 3D-pharmacophore sites defined by the QSAR models and interactions with binding site residues. This model identifies new regions of the inhibitors that contain pharmacophore sites, such as the sugar-pyrimidine ring structure and the region of the 5`-arylthiourea moiety. These new regions of the ligands can be further explored and possibly exploited to identify new, novel, and, perhaps, better antituberculosis inhibitors of TMPKmt. Furthermore, the 3D-pharmacophores defined by these models can be used as a starting point for future receptor-dependent antituberculosis drug design as well as to elucidate candidate sites for substituent addition to optimize ADMET properties of analog inhibitors.

The rational reconstruction of the research program on classic rationalism: Locke and the empiricist approach

This article intends to rationally reconstruct Locke`s theory of knowledge as incorporated in a research program concerning the nature and structure of the theories and models of rationality. In previous articles we argued that the rationalist program can be subdivided into the classical rationalistic subprogram, which includes the knowledge theories of Descartes, Locke, Hume and Kant, the neoclassical subprogram, which includes the approaches of Duhem, Poincare and Mach, and the critical subprogram of Popper. The subdivision results from the different views of rationality proposed by each one of these subprograms, as well as from the tools made available by each one of them, containing theoretical instruments used to arrange, organize and develop the discussion on rationality, the main one of which is the structure of solution of problems. In this essay we intend to reconstruct the assumptions of Locke`s theory of knowledge, which in our view belongs to the classical rationalistic subprogram because it shares with it the thesis of the identity of (scientific) knowledge and certain knowledge.

Zipping up transcription factors: Rational design of anti-Jun and anti-Fos peptides

Various members of the bZip and bHLH-Zip families of eukaryotic transcription factors, including Jun, Fos, and Myc, have been identified as oncoproteins; mutation or deregulated expression of these proteins leads to certain types of cancer. These proteins can only bind to their cognate DNA enhancer sites following homodimerization, or heterodimerization with another family member, via their leucine zipper domain. Thus, a novel anticancer strategy would be to inhibit dimerization of these proteins, thereby blocking their DNA binding and transactivation functions. In this paper we show that it is possible to rationally design leucine zipper peptides that bind with high affinity to the leucine zipper dimerization domains of c-Jun and c-Fos, thus preventing the formation of functional c-Jun homodimers and c-Jun:c-Fos heterodimers; we refer to such peptides as superzippers (SZs). In vivo, c-Jun:SZ and c-Fos:SZ heterodimers should be nonfunctional as they lack one of the two basic domains that are essential for DNA binding. While the transport of a peptidic agent into cells often poses a severe obstacle to its therapeutic use, we show that a 46-residue leucine zipper peptide can be transported into HeLa cells by coupling it to a 17-residue carrier peptide from the Antennapedia homeodomain, thus paving the way for detailed studies of the therapeutic potential of superzipper peptides.

Matemal Concepts and Expectations regarding a Preterm Infant

The objective of the present study was: (a) to identify the concerns, verbally expressed, of 50 mothers regarding their preterm infants (PT) and then compare their verbal expression with those of 25 mothers of full-term infants (FT): and (b) to correlate the mothers` verbal expressions with maternal and infant variables. The following instruments were used to compose and characterize the sample: Structure Clinical Interview for DSM III-R Non-Patient (SCID/NP), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and medical charts. Results showed that there was no difference between groups in term of mothers` expectations and conceptualizations, both groups exhibited predominantly positive expectations and concepts. In comparison with FT mothers, PT mothers verbally expressed more feelings and reactions predominantly negative or conflicting in relation to infant birth. Higher levels of maternal anxiety and depression in the PT Group were correlated with more verbal expressions about negative or conflicting emotions. In addition, lower birth weight, higher neonatal risk and longer length of stay in intensive care nursery of the infants were related with more negative or conflicting concepts by the mothers.