Heavy tails, importance sampling and cross-entropy

We consider the problem of estimating P(Yi + (...) + Y-n > x) by importance sampling when the Yi are i.i.d. and heavy-tailed. The idea is to exploit the cross-entropy method as a toot for choosing good parameters in the importance sampling distribution; in doing so, we use the asymptotic description that given P(Y-1 + (...) + Y-n > x), n - 1 of the Yi have distribution F and one the conditional distribution of Y given Y > x. We show in some specific parametric examples (Pareto and Weibull) how this leads to precise answers which, as demonstrated numerically, are close to being variance minimal within the parametric class under consideration. Related problems for M/G/l and GI/G/l queues are also discussed.

Dapsone-induced agranulocytosis. The role of xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes demonstrated by a case report [Dapson-induzierte agranulozytose. Die rolle fremdstoffmetabolisierender enzyme am beispiel einer kasuistik]

A 34-year-old female patient with a three year history of generalized granuloma annulare was treated systemically with dapsone (DADPS). Six weeks after the onset of treatment, the patient developed an extensive tonsillitis of the base of the tongue with fever and malaise. Routine laboratory work showed a leukocytopenia with agranulocytosis. Further investigation revealed a marked decrease of the enzyme activity of N-acetyltransferase 2, which plays an important role in dapsone metabolism. Treatment included the cessation of dapsone, antibiotic coverage, and G-CSF leading to the rapid improvement of symptoms and normalization of leukocyte counts. Dapsone-induced angina agranulocytotica is a rare event and is interpreted as an idiosyncratic reaction. Depending on genetic polymorphisms of various enzymes, dapsone can be metabolized to immunologically or toxicologically relevant intermediates. Because of the risk of severe hematologic reactions, dapsone should only be employed for solid indications and with appropriate monitoring.

The economic impact of high growth start-ups:understanding the challenge for policy in the UK

Objectives The creation of more high-growth firms continues to be a key component of enterprise policy throughout the countries of the OECD. In the UK the developing enterprise policy framework highlights the importance of supporting businesses with growth potential. The difficulty, of course, is the ability of those delivering business support policies to accurately identify those businesses, especially at start-up, which will benefit from interventions and experiences an enhanced growth performance. This paper has a core objective of presenting new data on the number of high growth firms in the UK and providing an assessment of their economic significance. Approach This paper uses a specially created longitudinal firm-level database based on the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) held by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) for all private sector businesses in the UK for the period 1997-2008 to investigate the share of high-growth firms (including a sub-set of start-up more commonly referred to as gazelles) in successive cohorts of start-ups. We apply OECD definitions of high growth and gazelles to this database and are able to quantify for the first time their number (disaggregated by sector, region, size) and importance (employment and sales). Prior Work However, what is lacking at the core of this policy focus is any comprehensive statistical analysis of the scale and nature of high-growth firms in cohorts of new and established businesses. The evidence base in response to the question “Why do high-growth firms matter?” is surprisingly weak. Important work in this area has been initiated by Bartelsman et al., (2003),Hoffman and Jünge (2006) and Henreksen and Johansson (2009) but to date work in the UK has been limited (BERR, 2008b). Results We report that there are ~11,500 high growth firms in the UK in both 2005 and 2008. The share of high growth start-ups in the UK in 2005 (6.3%) was, contrary to the widely held perception in policy circles, higher than in the United States (5.2%). Of particular interest in the analysis are the growth trajectories (pattern of growth) of these firms as well as the extent to which they are restricted to technology-based or knowledge-based sectors. Implications and Value Using hitherto unused population data for the first time we have answered a fundamental research and policy question on the number and scale of high growth firms in the UK. We draw the conclusion that this ‘rare’ event does not readily lend itself to policy intervention on the grounds that the significant effort needed to identify such businesses ex ante would appear unjustified even if it was possible.

The use of Poisson regression in the sociological study of suicide

This paper explains how Poisson regression can be used in studies in which the dependent variable describes the number of occurrences of some rare event such as suicide. After pointing out why ordinary linear regression is inappropriate for treating dependent variables of this sort, we go on to present the basic Poisson regression model and show how it fits in the broad class of generalized linear models. Then we turn to discussing a major problem of Poisson regression known as overdispersion and suggest possible solutions, including the correction of standard errors and negative binomial regression. The paper ends with a detailed empirical example, drawn from our own research on suicide.

Horizontal genetic transfer in asexual fungi

Four aspects of horizontal genetic transfer during heterokaryon formation were examined in the asexual pathogen Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense (Foc): (1) variability based on method of heterokaryon formation; (2) differences in nuclear and mitochondrial inheritance; (3) the occurrence of recombination without nuclear fusion; (4) the occurrence of horizontal genetic transfer between distantly related isolates. The use of non-pathogenic strains of Fusarium oxysporum as biocontrol agents warrants a closer examination at the reproductive life cycle of this fungus, particularly if drug resistance or pathogenicity genes can be transmitted horizontally. Experiments were divided into three phases. Phase I looked at heterokaryon formation by hyphal anastomosis and protoplast fusion. Phase II was a time course of heterokaryon formation to look at patterns of nuclear and mitochondrial inheritance. Phase III examined the genetic relatedness of the different vegetative compatibility groups using a multilocus analysis approach. Heterokaryon formation was evident within and between vegetative compatibility groups. Observation of non-parental genotypes after heterokaryon formation confirmed that, although a rare event, horizontal genetic transfer occurred during heterokaryon formation. Uniparental mitochondria inheritance was observed in heterokaryons formed either by hyphal anastomosis or protoplast fusion. Drug resistance was expressed during heterokaryon formation, even across greater genetic distances than those distances imposed by vegetative compatibility. Phylogenies inferred from different molecular markers were incongruent at a significant level, challenging the clonal origins of Foc. Mating type genes were identified in this asexual pathogen Polymorphisms were detected within a Vegetative Compatibility Group (VCG) suggesting non-clonal inheritance and/or sexual recombination in Foc. This research was funded in part by a NIH-NIGMS (National Institutes of Health-National Institute of General Medical Sciences) Grant through the MBRS (Minority Biomedical Research Support), the Department of Biological Sciences and the Tropical Biology Program at FIU. ^

The influence of gender on perceived treatment need among a community sample of substance users

Purpose: Most individuals do not perceive a need for substance use treatment despite meeting diagnostic criteria for substance use disorders and they are least likely to pursue treatment voluntarily. There are also those who perceive a need for treatment and yet do not pursue it. This study aimed to understand which factors increase the likelihood of perceiving a need for treatment for individuals who meet diagnostic criteria for substance use disorders in the hopes to better assist with more targeted efforts for gender-specific treatment recruitment and retention. Using Andersen and Newman's (1973/2005) model of individual determinants of healthcare utilization, the central hypothesis of the study was that gender moderates the relationship between substance use problem severity and perceived treatment need, so that women with increasing problems due to their use of substances are more likely than men to perceive a need for treatment. Additional predisposing and enabling factors from Andersen and Newman's (1973/2005) model were included in the study to understand their impact on perceived need. Method: The study was a secondary data analysis of the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) using logistic regression. The weighted sample consisted of a total 20,077,235 American household residents (The unweighted sample was 5,484 participants). Results of the logistic regression were verified using Relogit software for rare events logistic regression due to the rare event of perceived treatment need (King & Zeng, 2001a; 2001b). Results: The moderating effect of female gender was not found. Conversely, men were significantly more likely than women to perceive a need for treatment as substance use problem severity increased. The study also found that a number of factors such as race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, age, marital status, education, co-occurring mental health disorders, and prior treatment history differently impacted the likelihood of perceiving a need for treatment among men and women. Conclusion: Perceived treatment need among individuals who meet criteria for substance use disorders is rare, but identifying factors associated with an increased likelihood of perceiving need for treatment can help the development of gender-appropriate outreach and recruitment for social work treatment, and public health messages.

Spondylodiscitis as Complication of Transrectal Ultrasonography-guided Prostate Biopsy: a Case Report

A 61-year-old man presented with high fever, and severe back and abdominal pain following transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy. Diagnosis of spondylodiscitis and psoas abscesses was made based on MRI images of the lumbar tract of the spine. Six-month broad-spectrum antibiotic treatment and immobilization with a girdle overcame the disease without any relapse at the 1-year follow-up. Spondylodiscitis after TRUS-guided prostate biopsy is a rare event, which is not yet included as a major complication of the procedure. It is probably due to the presence of fluoroquinolone-resistant bacteria in faeces. It is, therefore, important to highlight this possibility and to stress the use of targeted antibiotic prophylaxis after rectal flora swabbing with selected antibiotics at sufficient concentrations to be effective.

Development of Myasthenia Gravis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Objectives: To perform a literature review and estimate MG incidence in an SLE cohort. Materials and methods: We searched MEDLINE and PubMed for case reports of SLE and MG. We also calculated MG incidence within our clinical SLE cohort (females only). Results: Eleven articles met our criteria, providing 13 SLE patients who developed MG. The majority were female (84.6%), with the average ages of 25.6 and 33.5 years at diagnoses of SLE and MG, respectively. In 380 SLE female patients followed for 2,850 person-years, one MG case occurred. Conclusion: MG in SLE is a rare event.

Evaluating Risks of Dam-Reservoir Systems Using Efficient Importance Sampling

The occurrence frequency of failure events serve as critical indexes representing the safety status of dam-reservoir systems. Although overtopping is the most common failure mode with significant consequences, this type of event, in most cases, has a small probability. Estimation of such rare event risks for dam-reservoir systems with crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation techniques requires a prohibitively large number of trials, where significant computational resources are required to reach the satisfied estimation results. Otherwise, estimation of the disturbances would not be accurate enough. In order to reduce the computation expenses and improve the risk estimation efficiency, an importance sampling (IS) based simulation approach is proposed in this dissertation to address the overtopping risks of dam-reservoir systems. Deliverables of this study mainly include the following five aspects: 1) the reservoir inflow hydrograph model; 2) the dam-reservoir system operation model; 3) the CMC simulation framework; 4) the IS-based Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation framework; and 5) the overtopping risk estimation comparison of both CMC and ISMC simulation. In a broader sense, this study meets the following three expectations: 1) to address the natural stochastic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system, such as the reservoir inflow rate; 2) to build up the fundamental CMC and ISMC simulation frameworks of the dam-reservoir system in order to estimate the overtopping risks; and 3) to compare the simulation results and the computational performance in order to demonstrate the ISMC simulation advantages. The estimation results of overtopping probability could be used to guide the future dam safety investigations and studies, and to supplement the conventional analyses in decision making on the dam-reservoir system improvements. At the same time, the proposed methodology of ISMC simulation is reasonably robust and proved to improve the overtopping risk estimation. The more accurate estimation, the smaller variance, and the reduced CPU time, expand the application of Monte Carlo (MC) technique on evaluating rare event risks for infrastructures.

Trombose venosa profunda em idade pediátrica – estudo retrospetivo de 10 anos

Introdução e Objetivos: A trombose venosa profunda (TVP) e o tromboembolismo pulmonar são os componentes do tromboembolismo venoso (TEV) que, embora infrequente, é uma entidade emergente na pediatria. Apresentamos uma casuística cujo objetivo é a avaliação dos aspetos mais relevantes da TVP em idade pediátrica e da sua abordagem terapêutica. Metodologia: Revisão retrospetiva descritiva dos processos dos doentes internados na última década com o diagnóstico de TVP no Serviço de Pediatria da ULSAM. Resultados: Identificaram-se seis doentes, cinco deles do sexo feminino. A mediana de idades foi 17 anos. O edema do membro afetado esteve sempre presente e o segmento venoso mais atingido foi o ileofemoral (2/6). Houve concomitância de pelo menos dois fatores de risco adquiridos em três doentes, sendo o mais frequente o contracetivo oral combinado. Foi excluída trombofilia hereditária em cinco doentes mas ainda aguardamos o resultado do estudo de um doente. O tempo médio de tratamento foi de 9,8 meses. Discussão e Conclusão: A TVP na criança tem sido reconhecida como uma patologia rara, mas importante causa de morbilidade. A maior incidência de TVP foi documentada na adolescência com compromisso do membro inferior, tal como referido na literatura. Verificamos uma conjugação de fatores de risco que, provavelmente, se potenciaram entre si levando à ocorrência do TEV e colocamos a possibilidade do Pediatra se estar a deparar com uma nova realidade anteriormente excluída do atendimento pediátrico. O aumento na incidência desta patologia levanta a questão do acréscimo de risco trombótico nos adolescentes do sexo feminino devido à utilização de contracetivos orais combinados. Salientamos a importância de um consenso nacional no diagnóstico, tratamento e prevenção desta entidade em Pediatria.

Acute Cholecystitis as a Complication After Colonoscopy: A Case Report and Literature Review

Acute cholecystitis after colonoscopy is a rare event, with less than 10 cases described in the literature. We report the case of a male patient with silent gallstones who underwent colonoscopy for follow-up of his Crohn’s disease. The colonoscopy revealed erosions in the terminal ileum, from which biopsies were taken. A sessile polyp 4 mm in diameter at the recto-sigmoid junction was also removed. Less than 24 h after the colonoscopy, the patient complained of upper right quadrant pain, nausea and vomiting. Based on the clinical findings, laboratory data and ultrasonography, we diagnosed acute cholecystitis and excluded any complication after the colonoscopy. Laparoscopic cholecystectomy was performed and the patient was discharged.

Fratura traumática do osso temporal : diagnóstico, sequelas e tratamento

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Estudo sobre a migração transuterina e a razão sexual de conceptos em bovinos da raça Nelore (Bos taurus indicus)

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, 2016.

Exploring Hidden Coherent Feature Groups and Temporal Semantics for Multimedia Big Data Analysis

Thanks to the advanced technologies and social networks that allow the data to be widely shared among the Internet, there is an explosion of pervasive multimedia data, generating high demands of multimedia services and applications in various areas for people to easily access and manage multimedia data. Towards such demands, multimedia big data analysis has become an emerging hot topic in both industry and academia, which ranges from basic infrastructure, management, search, and mining to security, privacy, and applications. Within the scope of this dissertation, a multimedia big data analysis framework is proposed for semantic information management and retrieval with a focus on rare event detection in videos. The proposed framework is able to explore hidden semantic feature groups in multimedia data and incorporate temporal semantics, especially for video event detection. First, a hierarchical semantic data representation is presented to alleviate the semantic gap issue, and the Hidden Coherent Feature Group (HCFG) analysis method is proposed to capture the correlation between features and separate the original feature set into semantic groups, seamlessly integrating multimedia data in multiple modalities. Next, an Importance Factor based Temporal Multiple Correspondence Analysis (i.e., IF-TMCA) approach is presented for effective event detection. Specifically, the HCFG algorithm is integrated with the Hierarchical Information Gain Analysis (HIGA) method to generate the Importance Factor (IF) for producing the initial detection results. Then, the TMCA algorithm is proposed to efficiently incorporate temporal semantics for re-ranking and improving the final performance. At last, a sampling-based ensemble learning mechanism is applied to further accommodate the imbalanced datasets. In addition to the multimedia semantic representation and class imbalance problems, lack of organization is another critical issue for multimedia big data analysis. In this framework, an affinity propagation-based summarization method is also proposed to transform the unorganized data into a better structure with clean and well-organized information. The whole framework has been thoroughly evaluated across multiple domains, such as soccer goal event detection and disaster information management.

The Influence of Gender on Perceived Treatment Need among a Community Sample of Substance Users

Purpose: Most individuals do not perceive a need for substance use treatment despite meeting diagnostic criteria for substance use disorders and they are least likely to pursue treatment voluntarily. There are also those who perceive a need for treatment and yet do not pursue it. This study aimed to understand which factors increase the likelihood of perceiving a need for treatment for individuals who meet diagnostic criteria for substance use disorders in the hopes to better assist with more targeted efforts for gender-specific treatment recruitment and retention. Using Andersen and Newman’s (1973/2005) model of individual determinants of healthcare utilization, the central hypothesis of the study was that gender moderates the relationship between substance use problem severity and perceived treatment need, so that women with increasing problems due to their use of substances are more likely than men to perceive a need for treatment. Additional predisposing and enabling factors from Andersen and Newman’s (1973/2005) model were included in the study to understand their impact on perceived need. Method: The study was a secondary data analysis of the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) using logistic regression. The weighted sample consisted of a total 20,077,235 American household residents (The unweighted sample was 5,484 participants). Results of the logistic regression were verified using Relogit software for rare events logistic regression due to the rare event of perceived treatment need (King & Zeng, 2001a; 2001b). Results: The moderating effect of female gender was not found. Conversely, men were significantly more likely than women to perceive a need for treatment as substance use problem severity increased. The study also found that a number of factors such as race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, age, marital status, education, co-occurring mental health disorders, and prior treatment history differently impacted the likelihood of perceiving a need for treatment among men and women. Conclusion: Perceived treatment need among individuals who meet criteria for substance use disorders is rare, but identifying factors associated with an increased likelihood of perceiving need for treatment can help the development of gender-appropriate outreach and recruitment for social work treatment, and public health messages.