Essays on regulatory risk issues

Most studies around that try to verify the existence of regulatory risk look mainly at developed countries. Looking at regulatory risk in emerging market regulated sectors is no less important to improving and increasing investment in those markets. This thesis comprises three papers comprising regulatory risk issues. In the first Paper I check whether CAPM betas capture information on regulatory risk by using a two-step procedure. In the first step I run Kalman Filter estimates and then use these estimated betas as inputs in a Random-Effect panel data model. I find evidence of regulatory risk in electricity, telecommunications and all regulated sectors in Brazil. I find further evidence that regulatory changes in the country either do not reduce or even increase the betas of the regulated sectors, going in the opposite direction to the buffering hypothesis as proposed by Peltzman (1976). In the second Paper I check whether CAPM alphas say something about regulatory risk. I investigate a methodology similar to those used by some regulatory agencies around the world like the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) that incorporates a specific component of regulatory risk in setting tariffs for regulated sectors. I find using SUR estimates negative and significant alphas for all regulated sectors especially the electricity and telecommunications sectors. This runs in the face of theory that predicts alphas that are not statistically different from zero. I suspect that the significant alphas are related to misspecifications in the traditional CAPM that fail to capture true regulatory risk factors. On of the reasons is that CAPM does not consider factors that are proven to have significant effects on asset pricing, such as Fama and French size (ME) and price-to-book value (ME/BE). In the third Paper, I use two additional factors as controls in the estimation of alphas, and the results are similar. Nevertheless, I find evidence that the negative alphas may be the result of the regulated sectors premiums associated with the three Fama and French factors, particularly the market risk premium. When taken together, ME and ME/BE regulated sectors diminish the statistical significance of market factors premiums, especially for the electricity sector. This show how important is the inclusion of these factors, which unfortunately is scarce in emerging markets like Brazil.

Modelagem matemática para o transporte de partículas sujeitas a múltiplos mecanismos de retenção

Discrepancies between classical model predictions and experimental data for deep bed filtration have been reported by various authors. In order to understand these discrepancies, an analytic continuum model for deep bed filtration is proposed. In this model, a filter coefficient is attributed to each distinct retention mechanism (straining, diffusion, gravity interception, etc.). It was shown that these coefficients generally cannot be merged into an effective filter coefficient, as considered in the classical model. Furthermore, the derived analytic solutions for the proposed model were applied for fitting experimental data, and a very good agreement between experimental data and proposed model predictions were obtained. Comparison of the obtained results with empirical correlations allowed identifying the dominant retention mechanisms. In addition, it was shown that the larger the ratio of particle to pore sizes, the more intensive the straining mechanism and the larger the discrepancies between experimental data and classical model predictions. The classical model and proposed model were compared via statistical analysis. The obtained p values allow concluding that the proposed model should be preferred especially when straining plays an important role. In addition, deep bed filtration with finite retention capacity was studied. This work also involves the study of filtration of particles through porous media with a finite capacity of filtration. It was observed, in this case, that is necessary to consider changes in the boundary conditions through time evolution. It was obtained a solution for such a model using different functions of filtration coefficients. Besides that, it was shown how to build a solution for any filtration coefficient. It was seen that, even considering the same filtration coefficient, the classic model and the one here propposed, show different predictions for the concentration of particles retained in the porous media and for the suspended particles at the exit of the media

Políticas públicas para agricultura familiar: uma avaliação sobre a correspondência do paa e do PRONAF nos territórios da cidadania do Rio Grande do Norte - 2008 a 2010.

Family farming has been considered as the new axis of rural development in the country, the focus of several public policies, especially the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture - PRONAF and Food Purchase Program - PAA. PRONAF was created with the aim of providing credit to farmers, while the PAA to support family farmers through the purchase of its production. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze the correspondence of these two public policies for family farming, in the Territories of Citizenship of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, between the years 2008 to 2010. In the methodology, the analysis was performed by comparing the distributions of the two programs in the territories of citizenship status. There were also statistical tests of differences in proportions, and Spearman correlations, and estimated a logit regression model, in order to measure the probability of a farmer participating in the PAA is associated with one of the modes of PRONAF. The data used were obtained from the National and Supply - CONAB at the Institute of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension - EMATER, and the Ministry of Agrarian Development - MDA. Among the key findings was noted that policies were associated with a direct, but low in the districts of the Territories of Citizenship. And that, in the years 2008 and 2009, only in the territories of Mato Grande, Alto Oeste and Seridó, the actions of PAA and PRONAF had direct and significant correlations. It was found that in most of the territories, policies are performed randomly, ie that both have no correlation to each other. The estimates of the logit model showed that the chance of a family farmer, the PAA participant, receive credits PRONAF A, is higher in the territory of Mato Grande, and would have a chance to fall in PRONAF B in all areas surveyed. Moreover, farmers in the territories of the Assu-Mossoró, Sertão of Apodi, Seridó and Alto Oeste, participating in the PAA would be more likely to receive credits PRONAF C, reflecting thus the family farm more consolidated these territories

Genetic parameters for buffalo milk yield and milk quality traits using Bayesian inference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo da demanda energética e desagregação do solo em diferentes sequências operacionais de preparo periódico

The correct selection of the operational sequence of soil tillage is essential to reduce the cost of agricultural mechanization in the regions that mobilize intensively the soil. The objective of this work was to evaluate the energetic demand and disaggregation of the soil in different operational sequences of subsoiling and systems of periodic soil tillage. The experimental design was blocks at random, in a factorial model 5 x 2 with 5 replications, being 5 tillage systems (D - Disc plow, Dn - disc plow followed at leveler rail, G - weight rail, Gn - weight rail followed of leveler rail and E - Stirrer.) and two sequencies of subsoiling (SP - Subsoiling - tillage and PS - Tillage - subsoiling). There were evaluated the energetic demand, fuel consumption by area and the soil disaggregation. The results showed that the operational sequence tillage of the soil subsoiling (PS) had a lower energetic requirement, except for the stirrer, the sequence tillage the soil - subsoiling consumed less fuel and soil disaggregation didn't show statistic variation.

The rating of perceived exertion predicts intermittent vertical jump demand and performance

The aims of this study were (a) to assess the ability of the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) to predict performance (i.e. number of vertical jumps performed to a fixed jump height) of an intermittent vertical jump exercise, and (b) to determine the ability of RPE to describe the physiological demand of such exercise. Eight healthy men performed intermittent vertical jumps with rest periods of 4, 5, and 6s until fatigue. Heart rate and RPE were recorded every five jumps throughout the sessions. The number of vertical jumps performed was also recorded. Random coefficient growth curve analysis identified relationships between the number of vertical jumps and both RPE and heart rate for which there were similar slopes. In addition, there were no differences between individual slopes and the mean slope for either RPE or heart rate. Moreover, RPE and number of jumps were highly correlated throughout all sessions (r=0.97-0.99; P0.001), as were RPE and heart rate (r=0.93-0.97; P0.001). The findings suggest that RPE can both predict the performance of intermittent vertical jump exercise and describe the physiological demands of such exercise.

Electric characterization of a hybrid composite based on POMA/P(VDF- TrFE)/Zn2SiO4 : Mn using impedance spectroscopy

Understanding the microscopic origin of the dielectric properties of disordered materials has been a challenge for many years, especially in the case of samples with more than one phase. For polar dielectrics, for instance, the Lepienski approach has indicated that the random free energy barrier model of Dyre must be extended. Here we analyse the dielectric properties of a polymer blend made up with the semiconducting poly(o-methoxyaniline) and poly( vinylidene fluoride-trifluorethylene) POMA/P(VDF-TrFE), and of a hybrid composite of POMA/P(VDF-TrFE)/Zn2SiO4:Mn. For the blend, the Lepienski model, which takes into account the rotation or stretching of electric dipoles, provided excellent fitting to the ac impedance data. Because two phases had to be assumed for the hybrid composite, we had to extend the Lepienski model to fit the data, by incorporating a second transport mechanism. The two mechanisms were associated with the electronic transport in the polymeric matrix and with transport at the interfaces between Zn2SiO4: Mn microparticles and the polymeric matrix, with the relative importance of the interfacial component increasing with the percentage of Zn2SiO4: Mn in the composite. The analysis of impedance data at various temperatures led to a prediction of the theoretical model of a change in morphology at 190 +/- 40 K, and this was confirmed experimentally with a differential scanning calorimetry experiment.

Electrical characterization of in situ polymerized polyaniline thin films

The alternating conductivity, sigma*(f) = sigma'(f) + i sigma ''(f), of in situ polymerized polyaniline thin films doped with hydrochloric acid, deposited on top of an interdigitated gold line array previously deposited on glass substrates, were measured in the frequency (f) range between 0.1 Hz to 10 MHz and in the temperature range from 100 to 430 K. The results for sigma'(f) are typical of a disordered solid material: for frequencies lower than a certain hopping frequency gamma(hop), log[sigma'(f)] is frequency-independent rising almost linearly for in logf > gamma(hop). A master curve was thus obtained by plotting the real component of the conductivity using normalized scales sigma'(f)/sigma(dc) and f/gamma(hop) which is indicative of a single process operating in the whole frequency range. An expression encompassing the conduction through a disordered structure taken from previous random free energy barrier model for hopping carriers, as well a dielectric function to represent the capacitive behavior of the PAni was employed to fit the experimental results. The dielectric constant and activation energy for hopping carriers were obtained as function of the polymer doping level. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelo estatístico de rede de resistores para o estudo de processos de condução em nanocompósitos poliméricos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Parâmetros genéticos para a mortalidade pré e pós-natal em bovinos da raça Nelore

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos de características de carcaça, medidas por ultrassonografia, e suas relações com escores visuais na raça Nelore

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Avaliação de um modelo matemático para a determinação do coeficiente de atrito no processo de conformação por dobramento

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

Metodologias estatísticas na análise de germinação de sementes de mamona

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Genetic parameters and simultaneous selection for root yield, adaptability and stability of cassava genotypes

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar parâmetros genéticos e avaliar a seleção simultânea quanto à produtividade de raízes e à adaptabilidade e estabilidade de genótipos de mandioca. Os efeitos dos genótipos foram considerados como fixos e aleatórios, e a metodologia de modelos mistos (REML/Blup) foi utilizada para estimar os parâmetros genéticos e a média harmônica do desempenho relativo dos valores genotípicos (MHPRVG), para seleção simultânea. Dez genótipos foram avaliados em delineamento de blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições. O experimento foi realizado nos municípios de Altamira, Santarém e Santa Luzia do Pará, PA, nos anos agrícolas de 2009/2010, 2010/2011 e 2011/2012. As raízes foram colhidas 12 meses após o plantio, em todos os locais testados. A produtividade de raízes apresentou baixo coeficiente de variação genotípica (4,25%) e herdabilidade de parcelas individuais no sentido amplo (0,0424), o que resultou em baixo ganho genético. Em razão da baixa correlação genotípica (0,15), a classificação dos genótipos quanto à produtividade de raízes variou de acordo com o ambiente. Os genótipos CPATU 060, CPATU 229 e CPATU 404 destacaram-se quanto à produtividade, adaptabilidade e estabilidade.