Model complexity affects transient population dynamics following a dispersal event: A case study with pea aphids

Stage-structured population models predict transient population dynamics if the population deviates from the stable stage distribution. Ecologists’ interest in transient dynamics is growing because populations regularly deviate from the stable stage distribution, which can lead to transient dynamics that differ significantly from the stable stage dynamics. Because the structure of a population matrix (i.e., the number of life-history stages) can influence the predicted scale of the deviation, we explored the effect of matrix size on predicted transient dynamics and the resulting amplification of population size. First, we experimentally measured the transition rates between the different life-history stages and the adult fecundity and survival of the aphid, Acythosiphon pisum. Second, we used these data to parameterize models with different numbers of stages. Third, we compared model predictions with empirically measured transient population growth following the introduction of a single adult aphid. We find that the models with the largest number of life-history stages predicted the largest transient population growth rates, but in all models there was a considerable discrepancy between predicted and empirically measured transient peaks and a dramatic underestimation of final population sizes. For instance, the mean population size after 20 days was 2394 aphids compared to the highest predicted population size of 531 aphids; the predicted asymptotic growth rate (λmax) was consistent with the experiments. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are discussed. Includes 4 supplemental files.

Irreversible spherical model and its stationary entropy production rate

The nonequilibrium stationary state of an irreversible spherical model is investigated on hypercubic lattices. The model is defined by Langevin equations similar to the reversible case, but with asymmetric transition rates. In spite of being irreversible, we have succeeded in finding an explicit form for the stationary probability distribution, which turns out to be of the Boltzmann-Gibbs type. This enables one to evaluate the exact form of the entropy production rate at the stationary state, which is non-zero if the dynamical rules of the transition rates are asymmetric.

Autoionizing states and their relevance in electron-ion recombination

Atomic physics plays an important role in determining the evolution stages in a wide range of laboratory and cosmic plasmas. Therefore, the main contribution to our ability to model, infer and control plasma sources is the knowledge of underlying atomic processes. Of particular importance are reliable low temperature dielectronic recombination (DR) rate coefficients. This thesis provides systematically calculated DR rate coefficients of lithium-like beryllium and sodium ions via ∆n = 0 doubly excited resonant states. The calculations are based on complex-scaled relativistic many-body perturbation theory in an all-order formulation within the single- and double-excitation coupled-cluster scheme, including radiative corrections. Comparison of DR resonance parameters (energy levels, autoionization widths, radiative transition probabilities and strengths) between our theoretical predictions and the heavy-ion storage rings experiments (CRYRING-Stockholm and TSRHeidelberg) shows good agreement. The intruder state problem is a principal obstacle for general application of the coupled-cluster formalism on doubly excited states. Thus, we have developed a technique designed to avoid the intruder state problem. It is based on a convenient partitioning of the Hilbert space and reformulation of the conventional set of pairequations. The general aspects of this development are discussed, and the effectiveness of its numerical implementation (within the non-relativistic framework) is selectively illustrated on autoionizing doubly excited states of helium.

Optische Spektroskopie an Fermium (Z=100)

Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde erstmals Laser-Atomspektroskopie an einem Element durchgeführt, für das bisher keine atomaren Niveaus bekannt waren. Die Experimente wurden am Element Fermium mit der Ordnungszahl Z=100 mit der Resonanzionisationsspektroskopie (RIS) in einer Puffergaszelle durchgeführt. Verwendet wurde das Isotop 255Fm mit einer Halbwertszeit von 20.1 h, das im Hochflusskernreaktor des ORNL, Oak Ridge, USA, hergestellt wurde. Die von einem elektrochemischen Filament in das Argon-Puffergas bei einer Temperatur von 960(20)°C abgedampften Fm-Atome wurden mit Lasern in einem Zweistufenprozess resonant ionisiert. Dazu wurde das Licht eines Excimerlaser gepumpten Farbstofflasers für den ersten Anregungsschritt um die Wellenlänge 400 nm durchgestimmt. Ein Teil des Excimer (XeF) Laser Pumplichtes mit den Wellenlänge 351/353 nm wurde für die nicht-resonante Ionisation verwendet. Die Ionen wurden mit Hilfe elektrischer Felder aus der optischen Zelle extrahiert und nach einem Quadrupol Massenfilter mit einem Channeltron-Detektor massenselektiv nachgewiesen. Trotz der geringen Probenmenge von 2.7 x 10^10 eingesetzten Atomen wurden zwei atomare Resonanzen bei Energien von 25099.8(2) cm-1 und 25111.8(2) cm-1 gefunden und das Sättigungsverhalten dieser Linien gemessen. Es wurde ein theoretisches Modell entwickelt, dass sowohl das spektrale Profil der sättigungsverbreiterten Linien als auch die Sättigungskurven beschreibt. Durch Anpassung an die Messdaten konnten die partiellen Übergangsraten in den 3H6 Grundzustand Aki=3.6(7) x 10^6/s und Aki=3.6(6) x 10^6/s bestimmt werden. Der Vergleich der Niveauenergien und Übergangsraten mit Multikonfigurations Dirac-Fock Rechnungen legt die spektroskopische Klassifizierung der beobachteten Niveaus als 5f12 7s7p 5I6 und 5G6 Terme nahe. Weiterhin wurde ein Übergang bei 25740 cm-1 gefunden, der aufgrund der beobachteten Linienbreite von 1000 GHz als Rydbergzustand Zustand mit der Niveauenergie 51480 cm-1 interpretiert wurde und über einen Zweiphotonen Prozess angeregt werden kann. Basierend auf dieser Annahme wurde die Obergrenze für die Ionisationsenergie IP = 52140 cm-1 = 6.5 eV abgeschätzt. In den Messungen wurden Verschiebungen in den Zeitverteilungsspektren zwischen den mono-atomaren Ionen Fm+ und Cf+ und dem Molekül-Ion UO+ festgestellt und auf Driftzeitunterschiede im elektrischen Feld der gasgefüllten optischen Zelle zurückgeführt. Unter einfachen Modellannahmen wurde daraus auf die relativen Unterschiede Delta_r(Fm+,Cf+)/r(Cf+) ˜ -0.2 % und Delta_r(UO+,Cf+)/r(Cf+) ˜ 20 % in den Ionenradien geschlossen. Über die Bestimmung der Abnahme der Fm-a Aktivität des Filamentes auf der einen Seite und die Messung der Resonanzzählrate auf der anderen Seite, wurde die Nachweiseffizienz der Apparatur zu 4.5(3) x 10^-4 bestimmt. Die Nachweisapparatur wurde mit dem Ziel weiterentwickelt, Laserspektroskopie am Isotop 251Fm durchzuführen, das über die Reaktion 249Cf(a,2n)251Fm direkt in der optischen Zelle erzeugt werden soll. Das Verfahren wurde am chemischen Homolog Erbium getestet. Dabei wurde das Isotop 163Er über die Reaktion 161Dy(a,2n)163Er erzeugt und nach Resonanzionisation nachgewiesen. Die Nachweiseffizienz der Methode wurde zu 1 x 10^-4 bestimmt.

Confocal microscopy applied to the study of single entity fluorescence and light scattering

A sample scanning confocal optical microscope (SCOM) was designed and constructed in order to perform local measurements of fluorescence, light scattering and Raman scattering. This instrument allows to measure time resolved fluorescence, Raman scattering and light scattering from the same diffraction limited spot. Fluorescence from single molecules and light scattering from metallic nanoparticles can be studied. First, the electric field distribution in the focus of the SCOM was modelled. This enables the design of illumination modes for different purposes, such as the determination of the three-dimensional orientation of single chromophores. Second, a method for the calculation of the de-excitation rates of a chromophore was presented. This permits to compare different detection schemes and experimental geometries in order to optimize the collection of fluorescence photons. Both methods were combined to calculate the SCOM fluorescence signal of a chromophore in a general layered system. The fluorescence excitation and emission of single molecules through a thin gold film was investigated experimentally and modelled. It was demonstrated that, due to the mediation of surface plasmons, single molecule fluorescence near a thin gold film can be excited and detected with an epi-illumination scheme through the film. Single molecule fluorescence as close as 15nm to the gold film was studied in this manner. The fluorescence dynamics (fluorescence blinking and excited state lifetime) of single molecules was studied in the presence and in the absence of a nearby gold film in order to investigate the influence of the metal on the electronic transition rates. The trace-histogram and the autocorrelation methods for the analysis of single molecule fluorescence blinking were presented and compared via the analysis of Monte-Carlo simulated data. The nearby gold influences the total decay rate in agreement to theory. The gold presence produced no influence on the ISC rate from the excited state to the triplet but increased by a factor of 2 the transition rate from the triplet to the singlet ground state. The photoluminescence blinking of Zn0.42Cd0.58Se QDs on glass and ITO substrates was investigated experimentally as a function of the excitation power (P) and modelled via Monte-Carlo simulations. At low P, it was observed that the probability of a certain on- or off-time follows a negative power-law with exponent near to 1.6. As P increased, the on-time fraction reduced on both substrates whereas the off-times did not change. A weak residual memory effect between consecutive on-times and consecutive off-times was observed but not between an on-time and the adjacent off-time. All of this suggests the presence of two independent mechanisms governing the lifetimes of the on- and off-states. The simulated data showed Poisson-distributed off- and on-intensities, demonstrating that the observed non-Poissonian on-intensity distribution of the QDs is not a product of the underlying power-law probability and that the blinking of QDs occurs between a non-emitting off-state and a distribution of emitting on-states with different intensities. All the experimentally observed photo-induced effects could be accounted for by introducing a characteristic lifetime tPI of the on-state in the simulations. The QDs on glass presented a tPI proportional to P-1 suggesting the presence of a one-photon process. Light scattering images and spectra of colloidal and C-shaped gold nano-particles were acquired. The minimum size of a metallic scatterer detectable with the SCOM lies around 20 nm.

Nanoscale-electrical and optical properties of iii-nitrides

III-nitrides are wide-band gap materials that have applications in both electronics and optoelectronic devices. Because to their inherent strong polarization properties, thermal stability and higher breakdown voltage in Al(Ga,In)N/GaN heterostructures, they have emerged as strong candidates for high power high frequency transistors. Nonetheless, the use of (Al,In)GaN/GaN in solid state lighting has already proved its success by the commercialization of light-emitting diodes and lasers in blue to UV-range. However, devices based on these heterostructures suffer problems associated to structural defects. This thesis primarily focuses on the nanoscale electrical characterization and the identification of these defects, their physical origin and their effect on the electrical and optical properties of the material. Since, these defects are nano-sized, the thesis deals with the understanding of the results obtained by nano and micro-characterization techniques such as atomic force microscopy(AFM), current-AFM, scanning kelvin probe microscopy (SKPM), electron beam induced current (EBIC) and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). This allowed us to probe individual defects (dislocations and cracks) and unveil their electrical properties. Taking further advantage of these techniques,conduction mechanism in two-dimensional electron gas heterostructures was well understood and modeled. Secondarily, origin of photoluminescence was deeply investigated. Radiative transition related to confined electrons and photoexcited holes in 2DEG heterostructures was identified and many body effects in nitrides under strong optical excitations were comprehended.

Charge transport in organic photovoltaic cells

Die vorliegende Dissertation dient dazu, das Verständnis des Ladungstransportes in organischen Solarzellen zu vertiefen. Mit Hilfe von Computersimulationen wird die Bewegung von Ladungsträgern in organischen Materialien rekonstruiert, und zwar ausgehend von den quantenmechanischen Prozessen auf mikroskopischer Ebene bis hin zur makroskopischen Skala, wo Ladungsträgermobilitäten quantifizierbar werden. Auf Grundlage dieses skalenübergreifenden Ansatzes werden Beziehungen zwischen der chemischen Struktur organischer Moleküle und der makroskopischen Mobilität hergestellt (Struktur-Eigenschafts-Beziehungen), die zu der Optimierung photovoltaischer Wirkungsgrade beitragen. Das Simulationsmodell beinhaltet folgende drei Schlüsselkomponenten. Erstens eine Morphologie, d. h. ein atomistisch aufgelöstes Modell der molekularen Anordnung in dem untersuchten Material. Zweitens ein Hüpfmodell des Ladungstransportes, das Ladungswanderung als eine Abfolge von Ladungstransferreaktionen zwischen einzelnen Molekülen beschreibt. Drittens ein nichtadiabatisches Modell des Ladungstransfers, das Übergangsraten durch drei Parameter ausdrückt: Reorganisationsenergien, Lageenergien und Transferintegrale. Die Ladungstransport-Simulationen richten sich auf die Materialklasse der dicyanovinyl-substituierten Oligothiophene und umfassen Morphologien von Einkristallen, Dünnschichten sowie amorphen/smektischen Mesophasen. Ein allgemeiner Befund ist, dass die molekulare Architektur, bestehend aus einer Akzeptor-Donor-Akzeptor-Sequenz und einem flexiblen Oligomergerüst, eine erhebliche Variation molekularer Dipolmomente und damit der Lageenergien bewirkt. Diese energetische Unordnung ist ungewöhnlich hoch in den Kristallen und umso höher in den Mesophasen. Für die Einkristalle wird beobachtet, dass Kristallstrukturen mit ausgeprägter π-Stapelung und entsprechend großer Transferintegrale zu verhältnismäßig niedrigen Mobilitäten führen. Dieses Verhalten wird zurückgeführt auf die Ausbildung bevorzugter Transportrichtungen, die anfällig für energetische Störungen sind. Für die Dünnschichten bestätigt sich diese Argumentation und liefert ein mikroskopisches Verständnis für experimentelle Mobilitäten. In der Tat korrelieren die Simulationsergebnisse sowohl mit gemessenen Mobilitäten als auch mit photovoltaischen Wirkungsgraden. Für die amorphen/smektischen Systeme steigt die energetische Unordnung mit der Oligomerlänge, sie führt aber auch zu einer unerwarteten Mobilitätsabnahme in dem stärker geordneten smektischen Zustand. Als Ursache dafür erweist sich, dass die smektische Schichtung der räumlichen Korrelation der energetischen Unordnung entgegensteht.

Simulationen zur Exzitonendiffusion in organischen Halbleitern

Die vorliegende Dissertation dient dazu, das Verständnis des Exzitonentransports in organischen Halbleitern, wie sie in Leuchtdioden oder Solarzellen eingesetzt werden, zu vertiefen. Mithilfe von Computersimulationen wurde der Transport von Exzitonen in amorphen und kristallinen organischen Materialien beschrieben, angefangen auf mikroskopischer Ebene, auf der quantenmechanische Prozesse ablaufen, bis hin zur makroskopischen Ebene, auf welcher physikalisch bestimmbare Größen wie der Diffusionskoeffizient extrahierbar werden. Die Modellbildung basiert auf dem inkohärenten elektronischen Energietransfer. In diesem Rahmen wird der Transport des Exzitons als Hüpfprozess aufgefasst, welcher mit kinetischen Monte-Carlo Methoden simuliert wurde. Die notwendigen quantenmechanischen Übergangsraten zwischen den Molekülen wurden anhand der molekularen Struktur fester Phasen berechnet. Die Übergangsraten lassen sich in ein elektronisches Kopplungselement und die Franck-Condon-gewichtete Zustandsdichte aufteilen. Der Fokus dieser Arbeit lag einerseits darauf die Methoden zu evaluieren, die zur Berechnung der Übergangsraten in Frage kommen und andererseits den Hüpftransport zu simulieren und eine atomistische Interpretation der makroskopischen Transporteigenschaften der Exzitonen zu liefern. rnrnVon den drei untersuchten organischen Systemen, diente Aluminium-tris-(8-hydroxychinolin) der umfassenden Prüfung des Verfahrens. Es wurde gezeigt, dass stark vereinfachte Modelle wie die Marcus-Theorie die Übergangsraten und damit das Transportverhalten der Exzitonen oftmals qualitativ korrekt wiedergeben. Die meist deutlich größeren Diffusionskonstanten von Singulett- im Vergleich zu Triplett-Exzitonen haben ihren Ursprung in der längeren Reichweite der Kopplungselemente der Singulett-Exzitonen, wodurch ein stärker verzweigtes Netzwerk gebildet wird. Der Verlauf des zeitabhängigen Diffusionskoeffizienten zeigt subdiffusives Verhalten für kurze Beobachtungszeiten. Für Singulett-Exzitonen wechselt dieses Verhalten meist innerhalb der Lebensdauer des Exzitons in ein normales Diffusionsregime, während Triplett-Exzitonen das normale Regime deutlich langsamer erreichen. Das stärker anomale Verhalten der Triplett-Exzitonen wird auf eine ungleichmäßige Verteilung der Übergangsraten zurückgeführt. Beim Vergleich mit experimentell bestimmten Diffusionskonstanten muss das anomale Verhalten der Exzitonen berücksichtigt werden. Insgesamt stimmten simulierte und experimentelle Diffusionskonstanten für das Testsystem gut überein. Das Modellierungsverfahren sollte sich somit zur Charakterisierung des Exzitonentransports in neuen organischen Halbleitermaterialien eignen.

Conformational transitions of glycine induced by vibrational excitation of the O-H stretch

Vibrational energy flow and conformational transitions following excitation of the OH stretching mode of the most stable conformer of glycine are studied by classical trajectories. "On the fly" simulations with the PM3 semiempirical electronic structure method for the potential surface are used. Initial conditions are selected to correspond to the v = 1 excitation of the OH stretch. The main findings are: (1) An an equilibrium-like ratio is established between the populations of the 3 lowest-lying conformers after about 10 picoseconds. (2) There is a high probability throughout the 150 ps of the simulations for finding the molecule in geometries far from the equilibrium structures of the lowest-energy conformers. (3) Energy from the initial excited OH (v = 1) stretch flows preferentially to 5 other vibrational modes, including the bending motion of the H atom. (4) RRK theory yields conformational transition rates that deviate substantially from the classical trajectory results. Possible implication of these results for vibrational energy flow and conformational transitions in small biological molecules are discussed.

'A rose is a rose is a rose', but at-risk criteria differ

Background: Over the last 15 years, efforts to detect psychoses early in their prodromal states have greatly progressed; meanwhile, ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria have been the subject of such consensus that parts of them have been proposed for inclusion in DSM-5 in terms of an attenuated psychosis syndrome. However, it is frequently unacknowledged that the definitions and operationalizations of UHR-related at-risk criteria, including the relevant attenuated psychotic symptoms, vary considerably across centers and time and, thus, between prediction studies. Methods: These variations in UHR criteria are described and discussed with reference to the rates of transition to psychosis, their prevalence in the general population and the proposed new operationalization of the attenuated psychosis syndrome. Results: A comparison of samples recruited according to different UHR operationalizations reveals differences in the distribution of UHR criteria and transition rates as well as in the prevalence rates of at-risk criteria in the general population. Conclusion: The evidence base for the introduction of such a new syndrome is weaker than the number of studies using supposedly equal UHR criteria would at first suggest. Thus, studies comparing the effects of different (sub-)criteria not only on transition rates and outcomes but also on other important aspects, such as neurocognitive performance and brain imaging results, are necessary. Meanwhile, the preliminary attenuated psychosis syndrome in DSM-5 should not follow an altogether new definition but, rather, the currently most reliable UHR definition, which must still demonstrate its reliability and validity outside specialized psychiatric services.

Pharmacological prevention and treatment in clinical at-risk states for psychosis

Over the last couple of decades, the treatment of psychoses has much advanced; yet, despite all progress, the individual and societal burden associated with psychosis and particularly schizophrenia has largely remained unchanged. Therefore, much hope is currently placed on indicated prevention as a mean to fight these burdens before they set in. Though the number of studies investigating pharmacological interventions is still limited, encouraging results have been reported from the pioneering trials, despite several methodological limitations. Furthermore, it has become clear that persons characterized by the at-risk criteria are already ill and do not only need preventive intervention, but also treatment. In consequence, outcome criteria have to be broadened to cover the current needs of the patients. As is indicated by a recent study successfully using Omega-3 fatty acids for both purposes, it may be promising to develop and investigate interventions especially for the at-risk state, independent of their effectiveness in manifest disease states. Treatment studies may become promoted by the proposed introduction of a new disorder category into DSM-V. Future prevention studies, however, need to solve the challenge of changing immediate transition rates, demanding for new risk enrichment strategies as a prerequisite for feasible trial designs.

Basic symptoms and the prediction of first-episode psychosis

Recent focus on early detection and intervention in psychosis has renewed interest in subtle psychopathology beyond positive and negative symptoms. Such self-experienced sub-clinical disturbances are described in detail by the basic symptom concept. This review will give an introduction into the concept of basic symptoms and describe the development of the current instruments for their assessment, the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Adult (SPI-A) and Child and Youth version (SPI-CY), as well as of the two at-risk criteria: the at-risk criterion Cognitive-Perceptive Basic Symptoms (COPER) and the high-risk criterion Cognitive Disturbances (COGDIS). Further, an overview of prospective studies using both or either basic symptom criteria and transition rates related to these will be given, and the potential benefit of combining ultra-high risk criteria, particularly attenuated psychotic symptoms, and basic symptom criteria will be discussed. Finally, their prevalence in psychosis patients, i.e. the sensitivity, as well as in general population samples will be described. It is concluded that both COPER and COGDIS are able to identify subjects at a high risk of developing psychosis. Further, they appear to be sufficiently frequent prior to onset of the first psychotic episode as well as sufficiently rare in persons of general population to be considered as valuable for an early detection of psychosis.

Modeling multilevel sleep transitional data via Poisson log-linear multilevel models

This paper proposes Poisson log-linear multilevel models to investigate population variability in sleep state transition rates. We specifically propose a Bayesian Poisson regression model that is more flexible, scalable to larger studies, and easily fit than other attempts in the literature. We further use hierarchical random effects to account for pairings of individuals and repeated measures within those individuals, as comparing diseased to non-diseased subjects while minimizing bias is of epidemiologic importance. We estimate essentially non-parametric piecewise constant hazards and smooth them, and allow for time varying covariates and segment of the night comparisons. The Bayesian Poisson regression is justified through a re-derivation of a classical algebraic likelihood equivalence of Poisson regression with a log(time) offset and survival regression assuming piecewise constant hazards. This relationship allows us to synthesize two methods currently used to analyze sleep transition phenomena: stratified multi-state proportional hazards models and log-linear models with GEE for transition counts. An example data set from the Sleep Heart Health Study is analyzed.

Mechanism of Ca(v)1.2 channel modulation by the amino terminus of cardiac beta2-subunits

L-type calcium channels are composed of a pore, alpha1c (Ca(V)1.2), and accessory beta- and alpha2delta-subunits. The beta-subunit core structure was recently resolved at high resolution, providing important information on many functional aspects of channel modulation. In this study we reveal differential novel effects of five beta2-subunits isoforms expressed in human heart (beta(2a-e)) on the single L-type calcium channel current. These splice variants differ only by amino-terminal length and amino acid composition. Single-channel modulation by beta2-subunit isoforms was investigated in HEK293 cells expressing the recombinant L-type ion conducting pore. All beta2-subunits increased open probability, availability, and peak current with a highly consistent rank order (beta2a approximately = beta2b > beta2e approximately = beta2c > beta2d). We show graded modulation of some transition rates within and between deep-closed and inactivated states. The extent of modulation correlates strongly with the length of amino-terminal domains. Two mutant beta2-subunits that imitate the natural span related to length confirm this conclusion. The data show that the length of amino termini is a relevant physiological mechanism for channel closure and inactivation, and that natural alternative splicing exploits this principle for modulation of the gating properties of calcium channels.

EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.