WHO guidelines for a healthy diet and mortality from cardiovascular disease in European and American elderly: the CHANCES project

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents a leading cause of mortality worldwide, especially in the elderly. Lowering the number of CVD deaths requires preventive strategies targeted on the elderly.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to generate evidence on the association between WHO dietary recommendations and mortality from CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke in the elderly aged ≥60 y.

DESIGN: We analyzed data from 10 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States comprising a total sample of 281,874 men and women free from chronic diseases at baseline. Components of the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI) included saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, mono- and disaccharides, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and fruit and vegetables. Cohort-specific HRs adjusted for sex, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy and alcohol intakes were pooled by using a random-effects model.

RESULTS: During 3,322,768 person-years of follow-up, 12,492 people died of CVD. An increase of 10 HDI points (complete adherence to an additional WHO guideline) was, on average, not associated with CVD mortality (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.03), CAD mortality (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.14), or stroke mortality (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03). However, after stratification of the data by geographic region, adherence to the HDI was associated with reduced CVD mortality in the southern European cohorts (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.96; I(2) = 0%) and in the US cohort (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.87; I(2) = not applicable).

CONCLUSION: Overall, greater adherence to the WHO dietary guidelines was not significantly associated with CVD mortality, but the results varied across regions. Clear inverse associations were observed in elderly populations in southern Europe and the United States.

Exploiting Significance of Computations for Energy-Constrained Approximate Computing

Approximate execution is a viable technique for environments with energy constraints, provided that applications are given the mechanisms to produce outputs of the highest possible quality within the available energy budget. This paper introduces a framework for energy-constrained execution with controlled and graceful quality loss. A simple programming model allows developers to structure the computation in different tasks, and to express the relative importance of these tasks for the quality of the end result. For non-significant tasks, the developer can also supply less costly, approximate versions. The target energy consumption for a given execution is specified when the application is launched. A significance-aware runtime system employs an application-specific analytical energy model to decide how many cores to use for the execution, the operating frequency for these cores, as well as the degree of task approximation, so as to maximize the quality of the output while meeting the user-specified energy constraints. Evaluation on a dual-socket 16-core Intel platform using 9 benchmark kernels shows that the proposed framework picks the optimal configuration with high accuracy. Also, a comparison with loop perforation (a well-known compile-time approximation technique), shows that the proposed framework results in significantly higher quality for the same energy budget.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Effect of thermal annealing on Fe40Ni38B18Mo4 thin films: modified Herzer model for magnetic evolution

Magnetic properties of nano-crystalline soft magnetic alloys have usually been correlated to structural evolution with heat treatment. However, literature reports pertaining to the study of nano-crystalline thin films are less abundant. Thin films of Fe40Ni38B18Mo4 were deposited on glass substrates under a high vacuum of ≈ 10−6 Torr by employing resistive heating. They were annealed at various temperatures ranging from 373 to 773K based on differential scanning calorimetric studies carried out on the ribbons. The magnetic characteristics were investigated using vibrating sample magnetometry. Morphological characterizations were carried out using atomic force microscopy (AFM), and magnetic force microscopy (MFM) imaging is used to study the domain characteristics. The variation of magnetic properties with thermal annealing is also investigated. From AFM and MFM images it can be inferred that the crystallization temperature of the as-prepared films are lower than their bulk counterparts. Also there is a progressive evolution of coercivity up to 573 K, which is an indication of the lowering of nano-crystallization temperature in thin films. The variation of coercivity with the structural evolution of the thin films with annealing is discussed and a plausible explanation is provided using the modified random anisotropy model

Efectividad en redes Inter-Organizacionales : una aproximación al concepto y su medición

El concepto de efectividad en Redes Inter-organizacionales se ha investigado poco a pesar de la gran importancia en el desarrollo y sostenibilidad de la red. Es muy importante entender este concepto ya que cuando hablamos de Red, nos referimos a un grupo de más de tres organizaciones que trabajan juntas para alcanzar un objetivo colectivo que beneficia a cada miembro de la red. Esto nos demuestra la importancia de evaluar y analizar este fenómeno “Red Inter-organizacional” de forma más detallada para poder analizar que estructura, formas de gobierno, relaciones entre los miembros y entre otros factores, influyen en la efectividad y perdurabilidad de la Red Inter-organizacional. Esta investigación se desarrolla con el fin de plantear una aproximación al concepto de medición de la efectividad en Redes Inter-organizacionales. El trabajo se centrara en la recopilación de información y en la investigación documental, la cual se realizará por fases para brindarle al lector una mayor claridad y entendimiento sobre qué es Red, Red Inter-Organizacional, Efectividad. Y para finalizar se estudiara Efectividad en una Red Inter-organizacional.

Observational constraints on holographic tachyonic dark energy in interaction with dark matter

We discuss an interacting tachyonic dark energy model in the context of the holographic principle. The potential of the holographic tachyon field in interaction with dark matter is constructed. The model results are compared with CMB shift parameter, baryonic acoustic oscilations, lookback time and the Constitution supernovae sample. The coupling constant of the model is compatible with zero, but dark energy is not given by a cosmological constant.

Pseudolikelihood equations for Potts MRF model parameter estimation on higher order neighborhood systems

This letter presents pseudolikelihood equations for the estimation of the Potts Markov random field model parameter on higher order neighborhood systems. The derived equation for second-order systems is a significantly reduced version of a recent result found in the literature (from 67 to 22 terms). Also, with the proposed method, a completely original equation for Potts model parameter estimation in third-order systems was obtained. These equations allow the modeling of less restrictive contextual systems for a large number of applications in a computationally feasible way. Experiments with both simulated and real remote sensing images provided good results.

Monetary models of exchange rates and the random walk

Three alternative monetary models of exchange rate are tested using data on the Italian lira - US doIIar exchange rate. II is shown that up to the early 1990s these economic models perform better than the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasts.

A model of the Australia-US exchange rate

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination within an error correction framework. The intention is to identify both long and short term determinants that can be used to forecast the AUD/US exchange rate. The paper identifies a set of significant variables associated with exchange rate movements over a twenty year period from 1984 to 2004. Specifically, the overnight interest rate differential, Australia's foreign trade-weighted exposure to commodity prices as well as exchange rate volatility are variables identified that are able explain movements in the AUDIUS dollar relationship. An error correction model is subsequently constructed that incorporates an equilibrium correction term, a short-term interest rate differential variable, a commodity price variable and a proxy for exchange rate volatility. The model is then used to forecast out of sample and is found to dominate a naIve random walk model based on three different metrics.

The influence of parents, siblings and peers on pre- and early-teen smoking : a multilevel model

Introduction and Aims. Despite considerable success in tobacco control, many teenagers in Australia and other industrialised countries still smoke tobacco. There is mixed evidence on the relative influence of proximal social networks (parents/siblings/peers) on pre- and early-teen smoking, and no research has examined how these influences compare after accounting for school- and community-level effects.The aim of this study was to compare the relative influences of parents, siblings and peers, after accounting for school- and community-level variation in smoking.

Design and Methods. A cross-sectional fixed and random effects model of smoking prevalence was used, with individuals (n = 7314) nested within schools (n = 231) nested within communities (n = 30). Grade 6 and 8 students (modal ages 11 and 13 years) completed an on-line survey. Key variables included parent/sibling/peer use. Controls included alcohol involvement, sensation seeking, pro-social beliefs, laws/norms about substance use and school commitment.

Results.There was significant variation in smoking at both the school and community levels, supporting the need for a multilevel model. Individual-level predictors accounted for much of the variance at higher levels. The strongest effects were for number of friends who smoke, sibling smoking and alcohol involvement. Smaller significant effects were found for parent smoking. At the community level, socioeconomic disadvantage was significant, but community-level variance in pro-social and drug-related laws/norms was not related to smoking.

Discussion and Conclusions. Cross-level interactions were generally non-significant. Early teenage smoking was best explained by sibling and peer smoking, and individual risks largely accounted for the substantial variation observed across schools and communities. In terms of future tobacco control, findings point to the utility of targeting families in disadvantaged communities.[Kelly AB, O'Flaherty M, Connor JP, Homel R, Toumbourou JW, Patton GC, Williams J. The influence of parents, siblings and peers on pre- and early-teen smoking: A multilevel model.

Certificate-based signature : security model and efficient construction

In Eurocrypt 2003, Gentry introduced the notion of certificate-based encryption. The merit of certificate-based encryption lies in the following features: (1) providing more efficient public-key infrastructure (PKI) that requires less infrastructure, (2) solving the certificate revocation problem, and (3) eliminating third-party queries in the traditional PKI. In addition, it also solves the inherent key escrow problem in the identity-based cryptography. In this paper, we first introduce a new attack called the “Key Replacement Attack” in the certificate-based system and refine the security model of certificate-based signature. We show that the certificate-based signature scheme presented by Kang, Park and Hahn in CT-RSA 2004 is insecure against key replacement attacks. We then propose a new certificate-based signature scheme, which is shown to be existentially unforgeable against adaptive chosen message attacks under the computational Diffie-Hellman assumption in the random oracle model. Compared with the certificate-based signature scheme in CT-RSA 2004, our scheme enjoys shorter signature length and less operation cost, and hence, our scheme outperforms the existing schemes in the literature.

Towards a BIM-based energy rating system

Governments in Australia are faced with policy implementation that mandates higher energy efficient housing (Foran, Lenzen & Dey 2005). To this effect, the National Construction Code (NCC) 2013 stipulates the minimum energy performance for residential buildings as 114MJ/m2 per annum or 6 stars on an energy rating scale. Compliance with this minimum is mandatory but there are several methods through which residential buildings can be rated to comply with the deemed to satisfy provisions outlined in the NCC. FirstRate5 is by far the most commonly used simulation software used in Victoria, Australia. Meanwhile, Building Information Modelling (BIM), using software such as ArchiCAD has gained a foothold in the industry. The energy simulation software within ArchiCAD, EcoDesigner, enables the reporting on the energy performance based on BIM elements that contain thermal information. This research is founded on a comparative study between FirstRate5 and EcoDesigner. Three building types were analysed and compared. The comparison finds significant differences between simulations, being, measured areas, thermal loads and potentially serious shortcomings within FirstRate5, that are discussed along with the future potential of a fully BIM-integrated model for energy rating certification in Victoria. © 2014, The Association for Computer-Aided Architectural Design Research in Asia (CAADRIA), Hong Kong.

Flight altitude of trans-Sahara migrants in autumn: a comparison of radar observations with predictions from meteorological conditions and water and energy balance models

Radar observations on the altitude of bird migration and altitudinal profiles of meteorological conditions over the Sahara desert are presented for the autumn migratory period. Migratory birds fly at an average altitude of 1016 m (a.s.l.) during the day and 571 m during the night. Weather data served to calculate flight range using two models: an energy model (EM) and an energy-and-water model (EWM). The EM assumes that fuel supply limits flight range whereas the EWM assumes that both fuel and water may limit flight range. Flight ranges estimated with the EM were generally longer than those with the EWM. This indicates that trans-Sahara migrants might have more problems balancing their water than their energy budget. However, if we assume fuel stores to consist of 70% instead of 100% fat (the remainder consisting of 9% protein and 21% water), predicted flight ranges of the EM and EWM largely overlap. Increased oxygen extraction, reduced flight costs, reduced exhaled air temperature, reduced cutaneous water loss and increased tolerance to water loss are potential physiological adaptations that would improve the water budget in migrants. Both the EM and EWM predict optimal flight altitudes in agreement with radar observations in autumn. Optimal flight altitudes are differently predicted by the EM and EWM for nocturnal spring migration. During spring, the EWM predicts moderately higher and the EM substantially higher flight altitudes than during autumn. EWM predictions are therefore in better agreement with radar observations on flight altitude of migrants over the Negev desert in spring than EM predictions.

A graph-based model for context-aware recommendation using implicit feedback data

Recommender systems have been successfully dealing with the problem of information overload. However, most recommendation methods suit to the scenarios where explicit feedback, e.g. ratings, are available, but might not be suitable for the most common scenarios with only implicit feedback. In addition, most existing methods only focus on user and item dimensions and neglect any additional contextual information, such as time and location. In this paper, we propose a graph-based generic recommendation framework, which constructs a Multi-Layer Context Graph (MLCG) from implicit feedback data, and then performs ranking algorithms in MLCG for context-aware recommendation. Specifically, MLCG incorporates a variety of contextual information into a recommendation process and models the interactions between users and items. Moreover, based on MLCG, two novel ranking methods are developed: Context-aware Personalized Random Walk (CPRW) captures user preferences and current situations, and Semantic Path-based Random Walk (SPRW) incorporates semantics of paths in MLCG into random walk model for recommendation. The experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.