Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Tax evasion, technology shocks, and the cyclicality of government revenues

This paper analyzes the behavior of the tax revenue to output ratio over the business cycle. In order to replicate the empirical evidence, we develop a simple model combining the standard Ak growth model with the tax evasion phenomenon. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Under the empirically plausible assumptions that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution exhibits a sufficiently small value and that productivity shocks are serially correlated, we show that the elasticity of government revenue with respect to output is larger than one, which agrees with the empirical evidence. This result holds even if the tax system displays flat tax rates. We extend the previous setup to generate larger fiscal deficits when the economy experiences a recession.

Survival and Molting Incidence after Heat and Cold Shocks in Panstrongylus megistus Burmeister

Survival and molting incidence were studied after heat (40°C) and cold (0°C) shocks in specimens of Panstrongylus megistus with the aim of establishing its response to temperature stress under laboratory rearing conditions and to understand occasional changes in the biological characteristics of specimens captured in nature. The response to the thermal shocks was found to vary as a function of the temperature and duration of the shock, developmental phase and sex of the specimens, and in certain cases, the insect habit and nourishment conditions. P. megistus specimens were found to be less resistant to the heat shock assay than Triatoma infestans, another reduviid species. The short cold shock affected survival of P. megistus more than did the heat shock, survival of fully-nourished specimens being preferential. The response of adults to the short cold shock was affected by sex, males being generally less resistant. The insect sylvatic habit was found to seldom affect the thermal shock response established for specimens with domestic habit. A decrease in molting frequency and sometimes a slowdown of the molting rate were found after the short heat and cold shocks, possibly promoted by change in hormonal balance, and differing from patterns reported for T. infestans. The results indicate that no generalization should be made for different reduviid species in terms of the effects of temperature shocks.

Effect of Sequential Cold Shocks on Survival and Molting Rate in Triatoma infestans Klug

The survival and molting incidence in Triatoma infestans, a vector of Chagas disease, were investigated following sequential shocks at 0ºC in fifth instar nymphs under moderate fasting and full nutritional conditions. The shocks were separated by intervals of 8 h and 24 h at 30ºC. The results indicated that in terms of insect survival, T. infestans is tolerant to a single cold shock at 0ºC even for 12 h, or to sequential cold shocks, regardless of the nutritional state of the specimens. In terms of molting rate, fasting enhanced the tolerance to sequential cold shocks, but did not exceed the tolerance acquired by fully-nourished specimens, except when cold shocks were separated by an 8 h interval at 30ºC. The protective action elicited by fasting was assumed to be additive to that induced by a single mild cold shock or sequential cold shocks. The cold-tolerance response of T. infestans may have favoured its survival in areas of South America with low temperatures, even considering that this species is predominantly associated with human habitats.

Changes in nuclear phenotype frequencies following sequential cold shocks in Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera, Reduviidae)

The nuclear phenotypes of Malpighian tubule cells in fifth instar nymphs of Triatoma infestans, one of the most important vectors of Chagas disease, were studied following sequential shocks at 0ºC, separated by intervals of 8 h and 24 h at 30ºC, under conditions of moderate fasting and full nourishment. The insects pertained to colonies reared in the laboratory and originated from domestic specimens collected in the Brazilian states of São Paulo (north) and Minas Gerais (south). Since nuclear phenotypes in this species are affected by single cold shocks, it was expected that these phenotypes could also be changed by sequential shocks. Nuclear phenotypes indicative of mechanisms of cell survival (nuclear fusion and heterochromatin decondensation) and cell death (apoptosis and necrosis) were observed concomitantly in all the conditions tested. Nuclear fusion and heterochromatin decondensation were not found relevant for the presumed acquisition of the cold-hardening response in T. infestans. The decreased frequency of apoptosis and necrosis following sequential cold shocks including under fasting conditions, indicated that tolerance to sequential cold shocks occurred in T. infestans of the mentioned origin.

Effect of sequential heat and cold shocks on nuclear phenotypes of the blood-sucking insect, Panstrongylus megistus (Burmeister) (Hemiptera, Reduviidae)

Thermal shocks induce changes in the nuclear phenotypes that correspond to survival (heterochromatin decondensation, nuclear fusion) or death (apoptosis, necrosis) responses in the Malpighian tubules of Panstrongylus megistus. Since thermal tolerance increased survival and molting rate in this species following sequential shocks, we investigated whether changes in nuclear phenotypes accompanied the insect survival response to sequential thermal shocks. Fifth instar nymphs were subjected to a single heat (35 or 40°C, 1 h) or cold (5 or 0°C, 1 h) shock and then subjected to a second shock for 12 h at 40 or 0°C, respectively, after 8, 18, 24 and 72 h at 28°C (control temperature). As with specimen survival, sequential heat and cold shocks induced changes in frequency of the mentioned nuclear phenotypes although their patterns differed. The heat shock tolerance involved decrease in apoptosis simultaneous to increase in cell survival responses. Sequential cold shocks did not involve cell/nuclear fusion and even elicited increase in necrosis with advancing time after shocks. The temperatures of 40 and 0ºC were more effective than the temperatures of 35 and 5ºC in eliciting the heat and cold shock tolerances, respectively, as shown by cytological analysis of the nuclear phenotypes. It is concluded that different sequential thermal shocks can trigger different mechanisms of cellular protection against stress in P. megistus, favoring the insect to adapt to various ecotopes.

Le football comme religion populaire et comme culture mondialisée : brèves notations en vue d'une interprétation critique d'une quasi-religion contemporaine

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) Le présent recueil d'hommages veut témoigner de l'importance de l'oeuvre théologique de Jean Richard, professeur à la Faculté de théologie et de sciences religieuses de l'Université Laval. Désireux de signifier leur reconnaissance au père Richard, les auteurs de ce livre ont proposé des textes s'inscrivant dans l'un ou l'autre de ses champs de recherche privilégiés. Le tableau des contributeurs à ces mélanges regroupe des théologiens de tous les âges, hommes et femmes, provenant du Canada, mais aussi des États-Unis et de l'Europe, de langue française, anglaise ou allemande, de confession catholique ou protestante, oeuvrant dans des champs disciplinaires aussi divers que la théologie systématique, la théologie fondamentale, l'éthique théologique, l'exégèse ou encore la philosophie. Cette diversité est révélatrice de la personnalité théologique du père Richard, du caractère international de son réseau d'amitiés et de recherche et de l'ampleur de son influence. Elle témoigne aussi de l'audace d'une oeuvre qui, entreprise dans les années 1960, a dès le départ relevé le défi de l'aggiornamento que venait de poser en toute urgence son Église et qui a très vite conduit son auteur « aux confins », pour reprendre - et pour cause - une expression de son mentor Paul Tillich qui lui sied à merveille. Les contributions réunies dans ce volume ne résultent pas d'un plan concerté. D'autant plus significatifs sont les recoupements thématiques qu'on y observe, qui, par un hasard seulement apparent, restituent les principaux axes de la production théologique du père Jean Richard. L'ouverture au présent et a ses problématiques propres, ainsi que les défis conceptuels par là posés à l'effort théologique constituent les deux constantes de ces contributions, comme de l'oeuvre qui les a inspirées.

Effectiveness of a nurse-led case management home care model in Primary Health Care. A quasi-experimental, controlled, multi-centre study

Background Demand for home care services has increased considerably, along with the growing complexity of cases and variability among resources and providers. Designing services that guarantee co-ordination and integration for providers and levels of care is of paramount importance. The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a new case-management based, home care delivery model which has been implemented in Andalusia (Spain). Methods Quasi-experimental, controlled, non-randomised, multi-centre study on the population receiving home care services comparing the outcomes of the new model, which included nurse-led case management, versus the conventional one. Primary endpoints: functional status, satisfaction and use of healthcare resources. Secondary endpoints: recruitment and caregiver burden, mortality, institutionalisation, quality of life and family function. Analyses were performed at base-line, and at two, six and twelve months. A bivariate analysis was conducted with the Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney's U, and the chi squared test. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests were performed to compare survival and institutionalisation. A multivariate analysis was performed to pinpoint factors that impact on improvement of functional ability. Results Base-line differences in functional capacity – significantly lower in the intervention group (RR: 1.52 95%CI: 1.05–2.21; p = 0.0016) – disappeared at six months (RR: 1.31 95%CI: 0.87–1.98; p = 0.178). At six months, caregiver burden showed a slight reduction in the intervention group, whereas it increased notably in the control group (base-line Zarit Test: 57.06 95%CI: 54.77–59.34 vs. 60.50 95%CI: 53.63–67.37; p = 0.264), (Zarit Test at six months: 53.79 95%CI: 49.67–57.92 vs. 66.26 95%CI: 60.66–71.86 p = 0.002). Patients in the intervention group received more physiotherapy (7.92 CI95%: 5.22–10.62 vs. 3.24 95%CI: 1.37–5.310; p = 0.0001) and, on average, required fewer home care visits (9.40 95%CI: 7.89–10.92 vs.11.30 95%CI: 9.10–14.54). No differences were found in terms of frequency of visits to A&E or hospital re-admissions. Furthermore, patients in the control group perceived higher levels of satisfaction (16.88; 95%CI: 16.32–17.43; range: 0–21, vs. 14.65 95%CI: 13.61–15.68; p = 0,001). Conclusion A home care service model that includes nurse-led case management streamlines access to healthcare services and resources, while impacting positively on patients' functional ability and caregiver burden, with increased levels of satisfaction.

How Wages and Employment Adjust to Trade Liberalization: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Austria

We study the response of regional employment and nominal wages to trade liberalization, exploiting the natural experiment provided by the opening of Central and Eastern European markets after the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1990. Using data for Austrian municipalities, we examine differential pre- and post-1990 wage and employment growth rates between regions bordering the formerly communist economies and interior regions. If the "border regions" are defined narrowly, within a band of less than 50 kilometers, we can identify statistically significant liberalization effects on both employment and wages. While wages responded earlier than employment, the employment effect over the entire adjustment period is estimated to be around three times as large as the wage effect. The implied slope of the regional labor supply curve can be replicated in an economic geography model that features obstacles to labor migration due to immobile housing and to heterogeneous locational preferences.

Pigment production by Streptococcus agalactiae in quasi-defined media.

A quasi-defined medium that supports the growth of Streptococcus agalactiae as pigmented colonies has been developed. The medium contains starch, a peptic digest of albumin, amino acids, nucleosides, vitamins, and salts. The presence of free cysteine, which could be replaced with other sulphur-containing compounds and to a lesser degree by reducing agents, was required for pigment formation.

How effective are policies to reduce gasoline consumption? evaluating a quasi-natural experiment in Spain

Using a panel of 48 provinces for four years we empirically analyze a series of temporary policies aimed at curbing fuel consumption implemented in Spain between March and June 2011. The first policy was a reduction in the speed limit in highways. The second policy was an increase in the biofuel content of fuels used in the transport sector. The third measure was a reduction of 5% in commuting and regional train fares that resulted in two major metropolitan areas reducing their overall fare for public transit. The results indicate that the speed limit reduction in highways reduced gasoline consumption by between 2% and 3%, while an increase in the biofuel content of gasoline increased this consumption. This last result is consistent with experimental evidence that indicates that mileage per liter falls with an increase in the biofuel content in gasolines. As for the reduction in transit fares, we do not find a significant effect for this policy. However, in specifications including the urban transit fare for the major cities in each province the estimated cross-price elasticity of the demand for gasoline -used as a proxy for car use- with respect to the price of transit is within the range reported in the literature. This is important since one of the main eficiency justification for subsidizing public transit rests on the positive value of this parameter and most of the estimates reported in the literature are quite dated.

Non-Quasi-Competitiveness and Stability in Cournot's Model

This paper retakes previous work of the authors, about the relationship between non-quasi-competitiveness (the increase in price caused by an increase in the number of oligopolists) and stability of the equilibrium in the classical Cournot oligopoly model. Though it has been widely accepted in the literature that the loss of quasi-competitiveness is linked, in the long run as new firms entered the market, to instability of the model, the authors in their previous work put forward a model in which a situation of monopoly changed to duopoly losing quasi-competitiveness but maintaining the stability of the equilibrium. That model could not, at the time, be extended to any number of oligopolists. The present paper exhibits such an extension. An oligopoly model is shown in which the loss of quasi-competitiveness resists the presence in the market of as many firms as one wishes and where the successive Cournot's equilibrium points are unique and asymptotically stable. In this way, for the first time, the conjecture that non-quasi- competitiveness and instability were equivalent in the long run, is proved false.

Predictable Life-Cycle Shocks, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles.