On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Development and application of computational methodologies in qualitative modeling

La présente thèse s'intitule "Développent et Application des Méthodologies Computationnelles pour la Modélisation Qualitative". Elle comprend tous les différents projets que j'ai entrepris en tant que doctorante. Plutôt qu'une mise en oeuvre systématique d'un cadre défini a priori, cette thèse devrait être considérée comme une exploration des méthodes qui peuvent nous aider à déduire le plan de processus regulatoires et de signalisation. Cette exploration a été mue par des questions biologiques concrètes, plutôt que par des investigations théoriques. Bien que tous les projets aient inclus des systèmes divergents (réseaux régulateurs de gènes du cycle cellulaire, réseaux de signalisation de cellules pulmonaires) ainsi que des organismes (levure à fission, levure bourgeonnante, rat, humain), nos objectifs étaient complémentaires et cohérents. Le projet principal de la thèse est la modélisation du réseau de l'initiation de septation (SIN) du S.pombe. La cytokinèse dans la levure à fission est contrôlée par le SIN, un réseau signalant de protéines kinases qui utilise le corps à pôle-fuseau comme échafaudage. Afin de décrire le comportement qualitatif du système et prédire des comportements mutants inconnus, nous avons décidé d'adopter l'approche de la modélisation booléenne. Dans cette thèse, nous présentons la construction d'un modèle booléen étendu du SIN, comprenant la plupart des composantes et des régulateurs du SIN en tant que noeuds individuels et testable expérimentalement. Ce modèle utilise des niveaux d'activité du CDK comme noeuds de contrôle pour la simulation d'évènements du SIN à différents stades du cycle cellulaire. Ce modèle a été optimisé en utilisant des expériences d'un seul "knock-out" avec des effets phénotypiques connus comme set d'entraînement. Il a permis de prédire correctement un set d'évaluation de "knock-out" doubles. De plus, le modèle a fait des prédictions in silico qui ont été validées in vivo, permettant d'obtenir de nouvelles idées de la régulation et l'organisation hiérarchique du SIN. Un autre projet concernant le cycle cellulaire qui fait partie de cette thèse a été la construction d'un modèle qualitatif et minimal de la réciprocité des cyclines dans la S.cerevisiae. Les protéines Clb dans la levure bourgeonnante présentent une activation et une dégradation caractéristique et séquentielle durant le cycle cellulaire, qu'on appelle communément les vagues des Clbs. Cet évènement est coordonné avec la courbe d'activation inverse du Sic1, qui a un rôle inhibitoire dans le système. Pour l'identification des modèles qualitatifs minimaux qui peuvent expliquer ce phénomène, nous avons sélectionné des expériences bien définies et construit tous les modèles minimaux possibles qui, une fois simulés, reproduisent les résultats attendus. Les modèles ont été filtrés en utilisant des simulations ODE qualitatives et standardisées; seules celles qui reproduisaient le phénotype des vagues ont été gardées. L'ensemble des modèles minimaux peut être utilisé pour suggérer des relations regulatoires entre les molécules participant qui peuvent ensuite être testées expérimentalement. Enfin, durant mon doctorat, j'ai participé au SBV Improver Challenge. Le but était de déduire des réseaux spécifiques à des espèces (humain et rat) en utilisant des données de phosphoprotéines, d'expressions des gènes et des cytokines, ainsi qu'un réseau de référence, qui était mis à disposition comme donnée préalable. Notre solution pour ce concours a pris la troisième place. L'approche utilisée est expliquée en détail dans le dernier chapitre de la thèse. -- The present dissertation is entitled "Development and Application of Computational Methodologies in Qualitative Modeling". It encompasses the diverse projects that were undertaken during my time as a PhD student. Instead of a systematic implementation of a framework defined a priori, this thesis should be considered as an exploration of the methods that can help us infer the blueprint of regulatory and signaling processes. This exploration was driven by concrete biological questions, rather than theoretical investigation. Even though the projects involved divergent systems (gene regulatory networks of cell cycle, signaling networks in lung cells), as well as organisms (fission yeast, budding yeast, rat, human), our goals were complementary and coherent. The main project of the thesis is the modeling of the Septation Initiation Network (SIN) in S.pombe. Cytokinesis in fission yeast is controlled by the SIN, a protein kinase signaling network that uses the spindle pole body as scaffold. In order to describe the qualitative behavior of the system and predict unknown mutant behaviors we decided to adopt a Boolean modeling approach. In this thesis, we report the construction of an extended, Boolean model of the SIN, comprising most SIN components and regulators as individual, experimentally testable nodes. The model uses CDK activity levels as control nodes for the simulation of SIN related events in different stages of the cell cycle. The model was optimized using single knock-out experiments of known phenotypic effect as a training set, and was able to correctly predict a double knock-out test set. Moreover, the model has made in silico predictions that have been validated in vivo, providing new insights into the regulation and hierarchical organization of the SIN. Another cell cycle related project that is part of this thesis was to create a qualitative, minimal model of cyclin interplay in S.cerevisiae. CLB proteins in budding yeast present a characteristic, sequential activation and decay during the cell cycle, commonly referred to as Clb waves. This event is coordinated with the inverse activation curve of Sic1, which has an inhibitory role in the system. To generate minimal qualitative models that can explain this phenomenon, we selected well-defined experiments and constructed all possible minimal models that, when simulated, reproduce the expected results. The models were filtered using standardized qualitative ODE simulations; only the ones reproducing the wave-like phenotype were kept. The set of minimal models can be used to suggest regulatory relations among the participating molecules, which will subsequently be tested experimentally. Finally, during my PhD I participated in the SBV Improver Challenge. The goal was to infer species-specific (human and rat) networks, using phosphoprotein, gene expression and cytokine data and a reference network provided as prior knowledge. Our solution to the challenge was selected as in the final chapter of the thesis.

Fibre-reinforced composites as root canal posts

Fibre-reinforced composite (FRC) root canal posts are suggested to have biomechanical benefits over traditional metallic posts, but they lack good adhesion to resin composites. The aim of this series of studies was to evaluate the adhesion of individually formed fibre-reinforced composite material to composite resin and dentin, as well as some mechanical properties. Flexural properties were evaluated and compared between individually formed FRC post material and different prefabricated posts. The depth of polymerization of the individually formed FRC post material was evaluated with IR spectrophotometry and microhardness measurements, and compared to that of resin without fibres. Bonding properties of the individually formed FRC post to resin cements and dentin were tested using Pull-out- and Push-out-force tests, evaluated with scanning electron microscopy, and compared to those of prefabricated FRC and metal posts. Load-bearing capacity and microstrain were evaluated and failure mode assessment was made on incisors restored with individually formed FRC posts of different structures and prefabricated posts. The results of these studies show that the individually polymerized and formed FRC post material had higher flexural properties compared to the commercial prefabricated FRC posts. The individually polymerized FRC material showed almost the same degree of conversion after light polymerization as monomer resin without fibres. Moreover, it was found that the individually formed FRC post material with a semiinterpenetrating polymer network (IPN) polymer matrix bonded better to composite resin luting cement, than did the prefabricated posts with a cross-linked polymer matrix. Furthermore, it was found that, contrary to the other posts, there were no adhesive failures between the individually formed FRC posts and composite resin luting cement. This suggests better interfacial adhesion of cements to these posts. Although no differences in load-bearing capacity or microstrain could be seen, the incisors restored with individually formed FRC posts with a hollow structure showed more favourable failures compared to other prefabricated posts. These studies suggest that it is possible to use individually formed FRC material with semi-IPN polymer matrix as root canal post material. They also indicate that there are benefits especially regarding the bonding properties to composite resin and dentin with this material compared to prefabricated FRC post material with a cross-linked matrix. Furthermore, clinically more repairable failures were found with this material compared to those of prefabricated posts.

Fiber-reinforced Composite as Oral Implant Material. Experimental studies of glass fiber and bioactive glass in vitro and in vivo

Fiber-reinforced composite as oral implant material: Experimental studies of glass fiber and bioactive glass in vitro and in vivo Department of Prosthetic Dentistry and Biomaterials Science, Institute of Dentistry, University of Turku, Turku, Finland 2008. Biocompatibility and mechanical properties are important variables that need to be determined when new materials are considered for medical implants. Special emphasis was placed on these characteristics in the present work, which aimed to investigate the potential of fiber-reinforced composite (FRC) material as an oral implant. Furthermore, the purpose of this study was to explore the effect of bioactive glass (BAG) on osseointegration of FRC implants. The biocompatibility and mechanical properties of FRC implants were studied both in vitro and in vivo. The mechanical properties of the bulk FRC implant were tested with a cantilever bending test, torsional test and push-out test. The biocompatibility was first evaluated with osteoblast cells cultured on FRC substrates. Bone bonding was determined with the mechanical push-out test and histological as well as histomorplanimetric evaluation. Implant surface was characterized with SEM and EDS analysis. The results of these studies showed that FRC implants can withstand the static load values comparably to titanium. Threaded FRC implants had significantly higher push-out strength than the threaded titanium implants. Cell culture study revealed no cytotoxic effect of FRC materials on the osteoblast-like-cells. Addition of BAG particles enhanced cell proliferation and mineralization of the FRC substrates The in vivo study showed that FRC implants can withstand static loading until failure without fracture. The results also suggest that the FRC implant is biocompatible in bone. The biological behavior of FRC was comparable to that of titanium after 4 and 12 weeks of implantation. Furthermore, addition of BAG to FRC implant increases peri-implant osteogenesis and bone maturation.

Non-resorbable glass fibre-reinforced composite with porous surface as bone substitute material: Experimental studies in vitro and in vivo focused on bone-implant interface

The development of load-bearing osseous implant with desired mechanical and surface properties in order to promote incorporation with bone and to eliminate risk of bone resorption and implant failure is a very challenging task. Bone formation and resoption processes depend on the mechanical environment. Certain stress/strain conditions are required to promote new bone growth and to prevent bone mass loss. Conventional metallic implants with high stiffness carry most of the load and the surrounding bone becomes virtually unloaded and inactive. Fibre-reinforced composites offer an interesting alternative to metallic implants, because their mechanical properties can be tailored to be equal to those of bone, by the careful selection of matrix polymer, type of fibres, fibre volume fraction, orientation and length. Successful load transfer at bone-implant interface requires proper fixation between the bone and implant. One promising method to promote fixation is to prepare implants with porous surface. Bone ingrowth into porous surface structure stabilises the system and improves clinical success of the implant. The experimental part of this work was focused on polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) -based composites with dense load-bearing core and porous surface. Three-dimensionally randomly orientated chopped glass fibres were used to reinforce the composite. A method to fabricate those composites was developed by a solvent treatment technique and some characterisations concerning the functionality of the surface structure were made in vitro and in vivo. Scanning electron microscope observations revealed that the pore size and interconnective porous architecture of the surface layer of the fibre-reinforced composite (FRC) could be optimal for bone ingrowth. Microhardness measurements showed that the solvent treatment did not have an effect on the mechanical properties of the load-bearing core. A push-out test, using dental stone as a bone model material, revealed that short glass fibre-reinforced porous surface layer is strong enough to carry load. Unreacted monomers can cause the chemical necrosis of the tissue, but the levels of leachable resisidual monomers were considerably lower than those found in chemically cured fibre-reinforced dentures and in modified acrylic bone cements. Animal experiments proved that surface porous FRC implant can enhance fixation between bone and FRC. New bone ingrowth into the pores was detected and strong interlocking between bone and the implant was achieved.

Enhancement of water removal in the press section

The effectiveness of water removal on press section is very important for a paper and board machine’s functioning, efficiency and economy. Today, the most effective method for wet pressing is shoe press technology. Metso has carried out a number of studies concerning anew type of water removal method for a press section, which has also been patented. These studies include rough sketches and some test runs. These issues form the basis of this thesis. The objective of this work was to gather together information for a new and enhanced waterremoval method for a press section by studying the functioning of the device andcarrying out test runs. This method is referred to here as Hydronip. The main goal was tobuild a functional test site which fulfills all the necessary requirements and has all thenecessary information gathering devices. The design process was carried out by emphasizing the safety aspects. The goal was also to gather together information about the nip structure in running conditions, the seal function, and to carry out the nip tests with paper or board wads. This thesis consists of a theory part, the design and construction of the test site, and carrying out test runs through information gathering. The theory part consists of the principals of water removal from a press section, Hydronip construction, and the requirements for the test place. The safety aspects were taken into account especially in test runs, but also in the assembly stages. The design and construction of the test site includes the selection of equipment and surroundings that are needed for managing the test runs in the best possible way at certain premises. The test site included the equipment that was already on the premises. Some equipment could be used as it was but some equipment had to be manufactured or modified from existing equipment. A functional test site with information gathering devices was accomplished as a result of thethesis. Test runs demonstrated that the Hydronip concept is, at least on a small scale,functional. Short-term tests for seal functioning showed that the seal can be lubricatedsufficiently under different kinds of nip load situations. Wad tests demonstrated that the metal belt is durable against different sizes of external particles. The seal also endured wad tests even though the pressure impacts impaired the lubrication. MTS tests showing dry content increases, combined with a rough cost calculation and the basic function of the machine in test runs, show that with some further study Hydronip could be a promising new product for water removal from a paper or board machine’s press section.

Überwachung der Vorspannkraft Externer Spannglieder mit Hilfe der Modalanalyse

Aufgrund ihrer Vorteile hinsichtlich Dauerhaftigkeit und Bauwerkssicherheit ist in Deutschland seit 1998 die externe Vorspannung in Hohlkastenbrücken zur Regelbauweise geworden. Durch Verwendung der austauschbaren externen Vorspannung verspricht man sich im Brückenbau weitere Verbesserungen der Robustheit und damit eine Verlängerung der Lebensdauer. Trotz des besseren Korrosionsschutzes im Vergleich zur internen Vorspannung mit Verbund sind Schäden nicht völlig auszuschließen. Um die Vorteile der externen Vorspannung zu nutzen, ist daher eine periodische Überwachung der Spanngliedkräfte, z. B. während der Hauptprüfung des Bauwerks, durchzuführen. Für die Überwachung der Spanngliedkräfte bei Schrägseilbrücken haben sich die Schwingungsmessmethoden als wirtschaftlich und leistungsfähig erwiesen. Für die Übertragung der Methode auf den Fall der externen Vorspannung, wo kürzere Schwingungslängen vorliegen, waren zusätzliche Untersuchungen hinsichtlich der effektiven Schwingungslänge, der Randbedingungen sowie der effektiven Biegesteifigkeit erforderlich. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde das Modellkorrekturverfahren, basierend auf der iterativen Anpassung eines F.E.-Modells an die identifizierten Eigenfrequenzen und Eigenformen des Spanngliedes, für die Bestimmung der Spanngliedkräfte verwendet. Dieses Verfahren ermöglicht die Berücksichtigung der Parameter (Schwingungslänge, Randbedingungen und effektive Biegesteifigkeit) bei der Identifikation der effektiven Spanngliedkräfte. Weiterhin ist eine Modellierung jeder beliebigen Spanngliedausbildung, z. B. bei unterschiedlichen Querschnitten in den Verankerungs- bzw. Umlenkbereichen, gewährleistet. Zur Anwendung bei der Ermittlung der Spanngliedkräfte wurde eine spezielle Methode, basierend auf den besonderen dynamischen Eigenschaften der Spannglieder, entwickelt, bei der die zuvor genannten Parameter innerhalb jedes Iterationsschrittes unabhängig korrigiert werden, was zur Robustheit des Identifikationsverfahrens beiträgt. Das entwickelte Verfahren ist in einem benutzerfreundlichen Programmsystem implementiert worden. Die erzielten Ergebnisse wurden mit dem allgemeinen Identifikationsprogramm UPDATE_g2 verglichen; dabei ist eine sehr gute Übereinstimmung festgestellt worden. Beim selbst entwickelten Verfahren wird die benötigte Rechenzeit auf ca. 30 % reduziert [100 sec à 30 sec]. Es bietet sich daher für die unmittelbare Auswertung vor Ort an. Die Parameteridentifikationsverfahren wurden an den Spanngliedern von insgesamt sechs Brücken (vier unterschiedliche Spannverfahren) angewendet. Die Anzahl der getesteten Spannglieder beträgt insgesamt 340. Die Abweichung zwischen den durch Schwingungs-messungen identifizierten und gemessenen (bei einer Brücke durch eine Abhebekontrolle) bzw. aufgebrachten Spanngliedkräften war kleiner als 3 %. Ferner wurden die Auswirkungen äußerer Einflüsse infolge Temperaturschwankungen und Verkehr bei den durchgeführten Messungen untersucht. Bei der praktischen Anwendung sind Besonderheiten aufgetreten, die durch die Verwendung des Modellkorrekturverfahrens weitgehend erfasst werden konnten. Zusammenfassend lässt sich sagen, dass die Verwendung dieses Verfahrens die Genauigkeit im Vergleich mit den bisherigen Schwingungsmessmethoden beachtlich erhöht. Ferner wird eine Erweiterung des Anwendungsbereiches auch auf Spezialfälle (z. B. bei einem unplanmäßigen Anliegen) gewährleistet.

Sparse kernel modelling: a unified approach

A unified approach is proposed for sparse kernel data modelling that includes regression and classification as well as probability density function estimation. The orthogonal-least-squares forward selection method based on the leave-one-out test criteria is presented within this unified data-modelling framework to construct sparse kernel models that generalise well. Examples from regression, classification and density estimation applications are used to illustrate the effectiveness of this generic sparse kernel data modelling approach.

Probability density function estimation using orthogonal forward regression

Using the classical Parzen window estimate as the target function, the kernel density estimation is formulated as a regression problem and the orthogonal forward regression technique is adopted to construct sparse kernel density estimates. The proposed algorithm incrementally minimises a leave-one-out test error score to select a sparse kernel model, and a local regularisation method is incorporated into the density construction process to further enforce sparsity. The kernel weights are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm, which has the ability to reduce the model size further. Except for the kernel width, the proposed algorithm has no other parameters that need tuning, and the user is not required to specify any additional criterion to terminate the density construction procedure. Two examples are used to demonstrate the ability of this regression-based approach to effectively construct a sparse kernel density estimate with comparable accuracy to that of the full-sample optimised Parzen window density estimate.

Kernel density construction using orthogonal forward regression

An automatic algorithm is derived for constructing kernel density estimates based on a regression approach that directly optimizes generalization capability. Computational efficiency of the density construction is ensured using an orthogonal forward regression, and the algorithm incrementally minimizes the leave-one-out test score. Local regularization is incorporated into the density construction process to further enforce sparsity. Examples are included to demonstrate the ability of the proposed algorithm to effectively construct a very sparse kernel density estimate with comparable accuracy to that of the full sample Parzen window density estimate.

An orthogonal forward regression technique for sparse kernel density estimation

Using the classical Parzen window (PW) estimate as the desired response, the kernel density estimation is formulated as a regression problem and the orthogonal forward regression technique is adopted to construct sparse kernel density (SKD) estimates. The proposed algorithm incrementally minimises a leave-one-out test score to select a sparse kernel model, and a local regularisation method is incorporated into the density construction process to further enforce sparsity. The kernel weights of the selected sparse model are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm, which ensures the nonnegative and unity constraints for the kernel weights and has the desired ability to reduce the model size further. Except for the kernel width, the proposed method has no other parameters that need tuning, and the user is not required to specify any additional criterion to terminate the density construction procedure. Several examples demonstrate the ability of this simple regression-based approach to effectively construct a SKID estimate with comparable accuracy to that of the full-sample optimised PW density estimate. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sparse modeling using orthogonal forward regression with PRESS statistic and regularization

The paper introduces an efficient construction algorithm for obtaining sparse linear-in-the-weights regression models based on an approach of directly optimizing model generalization capability. This is achieved by utilizing the delete-1 cross validation concept and the associated leave-one-out test error also known as the predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) statistic, without resorting to any other validation data set for model evaluation in the model construction process. Computational efficiency is ensured using an orthogonal forward regression, but the algorithm incrementally minimizes the PRESS statistic instead of the usual sum of the squared training errors. A local regularization method can naturally be incorporated into the model selection procedure to further enforce model sparsity. The proposed algorithm is fully automatic, and the user is not required to specify any criterion to terminate the model construction procedure. Comparisons with some of the existing state-of-art modeling methods are given, and several examples are included to demonstrate the ability of the proposed algorithm to effectively construct sparse models that generalize well.

Orthogonal-least-squares regression: A unified approach for data modelling

A unified approach is proposed for data modelling that includes supervised regression and classification applications as well as unsupervised probability density function estimation. The orthogonal-least-squares regression based on the leave-one-out test criteria is formulated within this unified data-modelling framework to construct sparse kernel models that generalise well. Examples from regression, classification and density estimation applications are used to illustrate the effectiveness of this generic data-modelling approach for constructing parsimonious kernel models with excellent generalisation capability. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probability density estimation with tunable kernels using orthogonal forward regression

A generalized or tunable-kernel model is proposed for probability density function estimation based on an orthogonal forward regression procedure. Each stage of the density estimation process determines a tunable kernel, namely, its center vector and diagonal covariance matrix, by minimizing a leave-one-out test criterion. The kernel mixing weights of the constructed sparse density estimate are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm to ensure the nonnegative and unity constraints, and this weight-updating process additionally has the desired ability to further reduce the model size. The proposed tunable-kernel model has advantages, in terms of model generalization capability and model sparsity, over the standard fixed-kernel model that restricts kernel centers to the training data points and employs a single common kernel variance for every kernel. On the other hand, it does not optimize all the model parameters together and thus avoids the problems of high-dimensional ill-conditioned nonlinear optimization associated with the conventional finite mixture model. Several examples are included to demonstrate the ability of the proposed novel tunable-kernel model to effectively construct a very compact density estimate accurately.

Farmer experience of pluralistic agricultural extension, Malawi

Purpose: Malawi’s current extension policy supports pluralism and advocates responsiveness to farmer demand. We investigate whether smallholder farmers’ experience supports the assumption that access to multiple service providers leads to extension and advisory services that respond to the needs of farmers. Design/methodology/approach: Within a case study approach, two villages were purposively selected for in-depth qualitative analysis of available services and farmers’ experiences. Focus group discussions were held separately with male and female farmers in each village, followed by semi-structured interviews with 12 key informants selected through snowball sampling. Transcripts were analysed by themes and summaries of themes were made from cross case analysis. Findings: Farmers appreciate having access to a variety of sources of technical advice and enterprise specific technology. However, most service providers continue to dominate and dictate what they will offer. Market access remains a challenge, as providers still emphasize pushing a particular technology to increase farm productivity rather than addressing farmers’ expressed needs. Although farmers work in groups, providers do not seek to strengthen these to enable active interaction and to link them to input and produce markets. This limits farmers’ capacity to continue with innovations after service providers pull out. Poor coordination between providers limits exploitation of potential synergies amongst actors. Practical implications: Services providers can adapt their approach to engage farmers in discussion of their needs and work collaboratively to address them. At a system level, institutions that have a coordination function can play a more dynamic role in brokering interaction between providers and farmers to ensure coverage and responsiveness. Originality/value: The study provides a new farmer perspective on the implementation of extension reforms.