On Time Series Analysis of Public Health and Biomedical Data

A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. Examples in public health include daily ozone concentrations, weekly admissions to an emergency department or annual expenditures on health care in the United States. Time series models are used to describe the dependence of the response at each time on predictor variables including covariates and possibly previous values in the series. Time series methods are necessary to account for the correlation among repeated responses over time. This paper gives an overview of time series ideas and methods used in public health research.

Public-health and individual approaches to antiretroviral therapy: township South Africa and Switzerland compared

BACKGROUND: The provision of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in resource-limited settings follows a public health approach, which is characterised by a limited number of regimens and the standardisation of clinical and laboratory monitoring. In industrialized countries doctors prescribe from the full range of available antiretroviral drugs, supported by resistance testing and frequent laboratory monitoring. We compared virologic response, changes to first-line regimens, and mortality in HIV-infected patients starting HAART in South Africa and Switzerland. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and two HAART programmes in townships of Cape Town, South Africa. We included treatment-naïve patients aged 16 y or older who had started treatment with at least three drugs since 2001, and excluded intravenous drug users. Data from a total of 2,348 patients from South Africa and 1,016 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study were analysed. Median baseline CD4+ T cell counts were 80 cells/mul in South Africa and 204 cells/mul in Switzerland. In South Africa, patients started with one of four first-line regimens, which was subsequently changed in 514 patients (22%). In Switzerland, 36 first-line regimens were used initially, and these were changed in 539 patients (53%). In most patients HIV-1 RNA was suppressed to 500 copies/ml or less within one year: 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] 95%-97%) in South Africa and 96% (94%-97%) in Switzerland, and 26% (22%-29%) and 27% (24%-31%), respectively, developed viral rebound within two years. Mortality was higher in South Africa than in Switzerland during the first months of HAART: adjusted hazard ratios were 5.90 (95% CI 1.81-19.2) during months 1-3 and 1.77 (0.90-3.50) during months 4-24. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the highly individualised approach in Switzerland, programmatic HAART in South Africa resulted in similar virologic outcomes, with relatively few changes to initial regimens. Further innovation and resources are required in South Africa to both achieve more timely access to HAART and improve the prognosis of patients who start HAART with advanced disease.

Health literacy among young adults: a short survey tool for public health and health promotion research

Health literacy (HL) is context-specific. In public health and health promotion, HL in the private realm refers to individuals' knowledge and skills to prevent disease and to promote health in everyday life. However, there is a scarcity of measurement tools explicitly geared to private realm contexts. Our aim was to develop and test a short survey tool that captures different dimensions of HL in the context of family and friends. We used cross-sectional data from the Swiss Federal Surveys of Adolescents from 2010 to 2011, comprising 7983 males and 366 females between 18 and 25 years. HL was assessed through a set of eight items (self-reports). We used principal component analysis to explore the underlying factor structure among these items in the male sample and confirmatory factor analysis to verify the factor structure in the female sample. The results showed that the tested item set represented dimensions of functional, interactive and critical HL. Two sub-dimensions, understanding versus finding health-relevant information, denoted functional HL. Interactive and critical HL were each represented with two items. A sum score based on all eight items (Cronbach's α: 0.64) showed expected positive associations with own and parental education among males and females (p < 0.05). The short item set appears to be a feasible measurement tool to assess HL in the private realm. Its broader application in survey studies may help to improve our understanding of how this form of HL is distributed in the general population.