Fiscal Policy and Economic Stability: Does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?

The Financial Crisis has hit particularly hard countries like Ireland or Spain. Procyclical fiscal policy has contributed to a boom-bust cycle that undermined fiscal positions and deepened current account deficits during the boom. We set up an RBC model of a small open economy, following Mendoza (1991), and introduce the effect of fiscal policy decisions that change over the cycle. We calibrate the model on data for Ireland, and simulate the effect of different spending policies in response to supply shocks. Procyclical fiscal policy distorts intertemporal allocation decisions. Temporary spending boosts in booms spur investment, and hence the need for external finance, and so generates very volatile cycles in investment and the current account. This economic instability is also harmful for the steady state level of output. Our model is able to replicate the relation between the degree of cyclicality of fiscal policy, and the volatility of consumption, investment and the current account observed in OECD countries.

Bag and size limit analyses for red drum in Northern and Southern Regions of the U.S. Atlantic

Assessments of the Atlantic red drum for the northern (North Carolina and north) and southern (South Carolina through east coast of Florida) regions along the U. S. Atlantic coast were recently completed. The joint Red Drum Technical Committee (SAFMC/ASMFC) selected the most appropriate catch matrix (incorporating an assumption on size of recreationally-released fish), selectivity of age 3 relative to age 2, and virtual population analysis (FADAPT). Given gear- and age-specific estimates of fishing mortality (F) for the 1992-1998 period, analyses were made of potential gains in escapement through age 4 and static spawning potential ratio (SPR) from further reductions in fishing mortality due to changes in slot and bag limits. Savings from bag limits were calculated given a particular slot size for the recreational fishery, with no savings for the commercial fisheries in the northern region due to their being managed primarily through a quota. Relative changes in catch-at-age estimates were used to adjust age-specific F and hence calculated escapement through age 4 and static SPR. Adjustment was made with the recreational savings to account for release mortality (10%, as in the stock assessment). Alternate runs for the northern region commercial fishery considered 25% release mortality for lengths outside the slot (instead of 0% for the base run), and 0% vs. 10% gain or loss across legal sizes in F. These results are summarized for ranges of bag limits with increasing minimum size limit (for fixed maximum size), and with decreasing maximum size limit (for fixed minimum size limit). For the southern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip would be required to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR if the current slot limit were not changed. However, for the northern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip appears to be insufficient to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR while maintaining the current slot limit. (PDF contains 41 pages)

Historie und aktueller Stand des Internationalen Heringslarvensurveys in der Nordsee

Since years the International Herring Larvae Survey Program (IHLS) is an important and internationally established survey program in the North Sea. The IHLS serves the calibration of stock abundance estimates based on information from the commercial fishery and the method of Integrated Catch Analysis (ICA) which is a specific derivate of the Virtual Population Analysis (VPA). Meanwhile the IHLS database has been transferred from Aberdeen to Kiel and it has been agreed that the Institut für Meereskunde Kiel should continue to maintain this database and provide the abundance indices to be utilized by the ICES Herring Assessment Working Group as one of the means for assessing the state of the herring stock in the North Sea. For establishing the calculation procedure at Kiel, it was necessary to optimize both, the survey design and the index calculation. This article gives an overview over the survey’s history, it’s geography, the sampling design, the information content of the IHLS data base and the various methods of calculating the different indices necessary for the calibration.

Identification and characterization of the egg-laying hormone from the neurosecretary bag cells of Aplysia

This investigation has resulted in the chemical identification and isolation of the egg-laying hormone from Aplysia californica, Aplysia vaccaria, and Aplysia dactylomela. The hormone, which was originally identified as the Bag Cell-Specific protein (BCS protein) on polyacrylamide gels, is a polypeptide of molecular weight ≈ 6000, which is localized in the neurosecretory bag cells of the parietovisceral ganglion and the surrounding connective tissue sheath which contains the bag cell axons. All three species produce a hormone of similar molecular weight, but varying electrophoretic mobility as determined on polyacrylamide gels. As tested, the hormone is completely cross-reactive among the three species.

Although the bag cells of sexually immature animals contain the active hormone, sexual maturation of the animal results in a 10-fold increase in the BCS protein content of these neurons.

A seasonal variation in the BCS protein content was also observed, with 150 times more hormone contained in the bag cells of Aplysia californica in August than in January. This correlates well with the variation in the animals' ability to lay eggs throughout the year (Strumwasser et al., 1969). There are some indications that the receptivity of the animal to the available hormone also fluctuates during the year, being lower in winter than in swmner. The seasonal rhythm of the other species, Aplysia vaccaria and Aplysia dactylomela, has not been investigated.

A polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis analysis of water-soluble proteins in Aplysia californica revealed several other nerve-specific proteins. One of these is also located in the bag cell somas and stains turquoise with Amido Schwarz. The function of this protein has not been investigated.

Geoquímica orgânica aplicada à formação Irati, área de Herval, Rio Grande do Sul (RS), bacia do Paraná

Esta dissertação tem por objetivo o estudo geoquímico detalhado em poço da Bacia do Paraná, mais especificamente na cidade de Herval (RS), visando preencher algumas das lacunas existentes em termos de geoquímica orgânica da Formação Irati. Com base nos dados de carbono orgânico total, enxofre total, resíduo insolúvel, raios-gama, isótopos de carbono da matéria orgânica, pirólise Rock-Eval e biomarcadores individualizaram-se dez unidades quimioestratigráficas. Biomarcadores foram usados na caracterização dos ambientes deposicionais, na discriminação da origem da matéria orgânica e da influência da litologia. O ambiente deposicional das unidades A, B, C é óxico com salinidade normal. O topo da unidade B representa a superfície de inundação máxima, onde os valores de COT aumentam. Com base nos biomarcadores caracterizou-se um paleoambiente deposicional com alguma tendência anóxica. Nas unidades D e G ocorrem os folhelhos intercalados com carbonatos. Nestas, a concentração de COT é acima de 1%, porém, somente na unidade G há bom potencial gerador para gás e condensado. As unidades E e I apresentam elevados teores de carbono orgânico total, chegando a 16%. Os dados de pirólise Rock-Eval indicam um bom a excelente potencial gerador para óleo e gás. Os dados isotópicos possibilitaram a divisão da Formação Irati, no poço em estudo, em três ciclos. O primeiro, da base para o topo, corresponde ao Membro Taquaral, os outros dois correspondem ao Membro Assistência. No Membro Assistência o δ13C varia de acordo com a salinidade, aumento da produtividade primária e da preservação da matéria orgânica (anoxia).

Zum Stand der Herstellung von Krillmehl und Fischmehl aus antarktischen Beständen

Zwischenbericht vom 1. Fahrtabschnitt der deutschen Antarktis-Expedition 1977/78

基于RS编码及网格编码调制的光PPM通信纠错技术

分析了RS（Reed-Solomon）纠错码和网格编码调制（Trellis Coded Modulation，TCM）技术在光脉冲位置调制通信中的应用．在此基础上，提出了以RS码作为外码，以网格编码调制技术作为内码，用于光脉冲位置调制通信的新编码方案，能以几乎不减少通信速率的优势，提高传统RS码系统在时变带限光信道中的通信性能．模拟研究了在不同空间光信道条件下，传统RS码的符号正确传输率和误码率，并对网格编码调制的编码增益、RS码与网格编码调制级联时的编码增益进行了仿真研究，证实了本方案的有效性．