Survival probability of round and tape tethers against debris impact

The current space environment, consisting of manmade debris and micrometeoroids, poses a risk to safe operations in space, and the situation is continuously deteriorating due to in-orbit debris collisions and to new satellite launches. Bare electrodynamic tethers can provide an efficient mechanism for rapid deorbiting of satellites from low Earth orbit at end of life. Because of its particular geometry (length very much larger than cross-sectional dimensions), a tether may have a relatively high risk of being severed by the single impact of small debris. The rates of fatal impact of orbital debris on round and tape tethers of equal length and mass, evaluated with an analytical approximation to debris flux modeled by NASA’s ORDEM2000, shows much higher survival probability for tapes. A comparative numerical analysis using debris flux model ORDEM2000 and ESA’s MASTER2005 validates the analytical result and shows that, for a given time in orbit, a tape has a probability of survival of about one and a half orders of magnitude higher than a round tether of equal mass and length. Because deorbiting from a given altitude is much faster for the tape due to its larger perimeter, its probability of survival in a practical sense is quite high.

Estimating the probability of initiated cell death before tumor induction

The effects of cell toxicity are known to be inherent in carcinogenesis induced by radiation or chemical carcinogens. The event of cell death precludes tumor induction from occurring. A long standing problem is to estimate the proportion of initiated cells that die before tumor induction. No experimental techniques are currently available for directly gauging the rate of cell death over extended periods of time. The obstacle can be surmounted by newly developed theoretical methods of carcinogenesis modeling. In this paper, we apply such methods to published data on multiple lung tumors in mice receiving different schedules of urethane. Bioassays of this type play an important role in testing environmental chemicals for carcinogenic activity. Our estimates for urethane-induced carcinogenesis show that, unexpectedly, many initiated cells die early in the course of tumor promotion. We present numerical estimates for the probability of initiated cell death for different schedules (and doses) of urethane administration.

Calculating the probability of multitaxon evolutionary trees: bootstrappers Gambit.

The reconstruction of multitaxon trees from molecular sequences is confounded by the variety of algorithms and criteria used to evaluate trees, making it difficult to compare the results of different analyses. A global method of multitaxon phylogenetic reconstruction described here, Bootstrappers Gambit, can be used with any four-taxon algorithm, including distance, maximum likelihood, and parsimony methods. It incorporates a Bayesian-Jeffreys'-bootstrap analysis to provide a uniform probability-based criterion for comparing the results from diverse algorithms. To examine the usefulness of the method, the origin of the eukaryotes has been investigated by the analysis of ribosomal small subunit RNA sequences. Three common algorithms (paralinear distances, Jukes-Cantor distances, and Kimura distances) support the eocyte topology, whereas one (maximum parsimony) supports the archaebacterial topology, suggesting that the eocyte prokaryotes are the closest prokaryotic relatives of the eukaryotes.

Visual detection of driving while intoxicated. Project interim report: identification of visual cues and development of detection methods.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Study of detection, identification, and quantification techniques for spills of hazardous chemicals /

Sponsored by the Coast Guard, Office of Research and Development, and the Environmental Protection Agency, National Environmental Research Center, Remote Sensing Branch.

Calculations of energy loss, range, pathlength, straggling, multiple scattering, and the probability of inelastic collisions for 0.1- to 1000-Mev protons.

Mode of access: Internet.

A historical account of bills of mortality, and the probability of human life, in Glasgow and other large towns.

Mode of access: Internet.

Probability of hurricane/tropical storm conditions : a user's guide for local decision makers /

Cover title.

The effect of legitimate opportunities on the probability of parolee recidivism /

Prepared for the Manpower Administration, U.S. Dept. of Labor.

Dissociation of detection and evaluation of facial expressions in adolescence

Holistic face perception, i.e. the mandatory integration of featural information across the face, hasbeen considered to play a key role when recognizing emotional face expressions (e.g., Tanaka et al.,2002). However, despite their early onset holistic processing skills continue to improvethroughout adolescence (e.g., Schwarzer et al., 2010) and therefore might modulate theevaluation of facial expressions. We tested this hypothesis using an attentional blink (AB)paradigm to compare the impact of happy, fearful and neutral faces in adolescents (10–13 years)and adults on subsequently presented neutral target stimuli (animals, plants and objects) in a rapidserial visual presentation stream. Adolescents and adults were found to be equally reliable whenreporting the emotional expression of the face stimuli. However, the detection of emotional butnot neutral faces imposed a significantly stronger AB effect on the detection of the neutral targetsin adults compared to adolescents. In a control experiment we confirmed that adolescents ratedemotional faces lower in terms of valence and arousal than adults. The results suggest a protracteddevelopment of the ability to evaluate facial expressions that might be attributed to the latematuration of holistic processing skills.