Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.

A matter of choice: strategy and discretion in the shadow of World War Two

American policy-makers are predisposed towards the idea of a necessary war of survival, fought with little room for choice. This reflects a dominant memory of World War II that teaches Americans that they live in a dangerously small world that imposes conflict. Critics argue that the ‘choice versus necessity’ schema is ahistorical and mischievous. This article offers supporting fire to those critiques. America’s war against the Axis (1941–45) is a crucial case through which to test the ‘small world’ view. Arguments for war in 1941 pose overblown scenarios of the rise of a Eurasian super-threat. In 1941 conflict was discretionary and not strictly necessary in the interests of national security. The argument for intervention is a closer call that often assumed. This has implications for America’s choices today.

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

Social equality in the number of choice options is represented in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex

A distinct aspect of the sense of fairness in humans is that we care not only about equality in material rewards but also about equality in non-material values. One such value is the opportunity to choose freely among many options, often regarded as a fundamental right to economic freedom. In modern developed societies, equal opportunities in work, living, and lifestyle are enforced by anti-discrimination laws. Despite the widespread endorsement of equal opportunity, no studies have explored how people assign value to it. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to identify the neural substrates for subjective valuation of equality in choice opportunity. Participants performed a two-person choice task in which the number of choices available was varied across trials independently of choice outcomes. By using this procedure, we manipulated the degree of equality in choice opportunity between players and dissociated it from the value of reward outcomes and their equality. We found that activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex tracked the degree to which the number of options between the two players was equal. In contrast, activation in the ventral striatum tracked the number of options available to participants themselves but not the equality between players. Our results demonstrate that the vmPFC, a key brain region previously implicated in the processing of social values, is also involved in valuation of equality in choice opportunity between individuals. These findings may provide valuable insight into the human ability to value equal opportunity, a characteristic long emphasized in politics, economics, and philosophy.

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic evaluation of the probability of pregnancy at 14 months for Nellore heifers

To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.

Probability of remission of juvenile idiopathic arthritis following treatment with steroid joint injection

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Low mass enhanced probability of pion in hadronic matter due to its Landau cut contributions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of the probability of stone formation (PSF) score to assess stone forming risk and treatment response in a cohort of Brazilian stone formers

Introduction: The aim was to confirm that PSF (probability of stone formation) changed appropriately following medical therapy on recurrent stone formers.Materials and Methods: Data were collected on 26 Brazilian stone-formers. A baseline 24-hour urine collection was performed prior to treatment. Details of the medical treatment initiated for stone-disease were recorded. A PSF calculation was performed on the 24 hour urine sample using the 7 urinary parameters required: voided volume, oxalate, calcium, urate, pH, citrate and magnesium. A repeat 24-hour urine sample was performed for PSF calculation after treatment. Comparison was made between the PSF scores before and during treatment.Results: At baseline, 20 of the 26 patients (77%) had a high PSF score (> 0.5). Of the 26 patients, 17 (65%) showed an overall reduction in their PSF profiles with a medical treatment regimen. Eleven patients (42%) changed from a high risk (PSF > 0.5) to a low risk (PSF < 0.5) and 6 patients reduced their risk score but did not change risk category. Six (23%) patients remained in a high risk category (> 0.5) during both assessments.Conclusions: The PSF score reduced following medical treatment in the majority of patients in this cohort.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Objectives To evaluate the accuracy and probabilities of different fetal ultrasound parameters to predict neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods Between January 2004 and December 2010, we evaluated prospectively 108 fetuses with isolated CDH (82 left-sided and 26 right-sided). The following parameters were evaluated: gestational age at diagnosis, side of the diaphragmatic defect, presence of polyhydramnios, presence of liver herniated into the fetal thorax (liver-up), lung-to-head ratio (LHR) and observed/expected LHR (o/e-LHR), observed/expected contralateral and total fetal lung volume (o/e-ContFLV and o/e-TotFLV) ratios, ultrasonographic fetal lung volume/fetal weight ratio (US-FLW), observed/expected contralateral and main pulmonary artery diameter (o/e-ContPA and o/eMPA) ratios and the contralateral vascularization index (Cont-VI). The outcomes were neonatal death and severe postnatal pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Results Neonatal mortality was 64.8% (70/108). Severe PAH was diagnosed in 68 (63.0%) cases, of which 63 died neonatally (92.6%) (P < 0.001). Gestational age at diagnosis, side of the defect and polyhydramnios were not associated with poor outcome (P > 0.05). LHR, o/eLHR, liver-up, o/e-ContFLV, o/e-TotFLV, US-FLW, o/eContPA, o/e-MPA and Cont-VI were associated with both neonatal death and severe postnatal PAH (P < 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristics curves indicated that measuring total lung volumes (o/e-TotFLV and US-FLW) was more accurate than was considering only the contralateral lung sizes (LHR, o/e-LHR and o/e-ContFLV; P < 0.05), and Cont-VI was the most accurate ultrasound parameter to predict neonatal death and severe PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusions Evaluating total lung volumes is more accurate than is measuring only the contralateral lung size. Evaluating pulmonary vascularization (Cont-VI) is the most accurate predictor of neonatal outcome. Estimating the probability of survival and severe PAH allows classification of cases according to prognosis. Copyright (C) 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.