Flood risk analysis of the White Oak Creek watershed in Oak Ridge, Tennessee using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 software

The purpose of this study was to determine the flooding potential of contaminated areas within the White Oak Creek watershed in the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. The watershed was analyzed with an integrated surface and subsurface numerical model based on MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software. The model was calibrated and validated using five decades of historical data. A series of simulations were conducted to determine the watershed response to 25 year, 100 year and 500 year precipitation forecasts; flooding maps were generated for those events. Predicted flood events were compared to Log Pearson III flood flow frequency values for validation. This investigation also provides an improved understanding of the water fluxes between the surface and subsurface subdomains as they affect flood frequencies. In sum, this study presents crucial information to further assess the environmental risks of potential mobilization of contaminants of concern during extreme precipitation events.

A DST-based Approach for Construction Project Risk Analysis

Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.

Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.

A Risk Analysis Method to Support Virtual Organization Partners’ Selection

Part 17: Risk Analysis

Risk analysis of climate change on black sigatoka in banana in Brazil.

2008

Artificial tritrophic exposure system for environmental risk analysis on aphidophagous predators.

2016

A framework for risk analysis in automotive cybersecurity

We address the problem of automotive cybersecurity from the point of view of Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment (TARA). The central question that motivates the thesis is the one about the acceptability of risk, which is vital in taking a decision about the implementation of cybersecurity solutions. For this purpose, we develop a quantitative framework in which we take in input the results of risk assessment and define measures of various facets of a possible risk response; we then exploit the natural presence of trade-offs (cost versus effectiveness) to formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimization. Finally, we develop a stochastic model of the future evolution of the risk factors, by means of Markov chains; we adapt the formulations of the optimization problems to this non-deterministic context. The thesis is the result of a collaboration with the Vehicle Electrification division of Marelli, in particular with the Cybersecurity team based in Bologna; this allowed us to consider a particular instance of the problem, deriving from a real TARA, in order to test both the deterministic and the stochastic framework in a real world application. The collaboration also explains why in the work we often assume the point of view of a tier-1 supplier; however, the analyses performed can be adapted to any other level of the supply chain.

Distributed argumentation technology: advancing risk analysis and regulatory compliance of distributed ledger technologies for transaction and management of securities

Distributed argumentation technology is a computational approach incorporating argumentation reasoning mechanisms within multi-agent systems. For the formal foundations of distributed argumentation technology, in this thesis we conduct a principle-based analysis of structured argumentation as well as abstract multi-agent and abstract bipolar argumentation. The results of the principle-based approach of these theories provide an overview and guideline for further applications of the theories. Moreover, in this thesis we explore distributed argumentation technology using distributed ledgers. We envision an Intelligent Human-input-based Blockchain Oracle (IHiBO), an artificial intelligence tool for storing argumentation reasoning. We propose a decentralized and secure architecture for conducting decision-making, addressing key concerns of trust, transparency, and immutability. We model fund management with agent argumentation in IHiBO and analyze its compliance with European fund management legal frameworks. We illustrate how bipolar argumentation balances pros and cons in legal reasoning in a legal divorce case, and how the strength of arguments in natural language can be represented in structured arguments. Finally, we discuss how distributed argumentation technology can be used to advance risk management, regulatory compliance of distributed ledgers for financial securities, and dialogue techniques.

Economic analysis of occupational risk prevention: a case study in a textile company

Work accidents affect business and society as a whole. Fewer accidents mean fewer sick leaves, which results in lower costs and less disruption in the production process, with clear advantages for the employer. But workers and their households bear also a significant burden following a work accident, only partially compen-sated by insurance systems. Furthermore, the consequences of work accidents to the State and Society need also to be considered. When an organization performs an integrated risk analysis in evaluating its Occupational Health and Safety Management System, several steps are suggested to address the identified risk situations. Namely, to avoid risks, a series of preventive measures are identified. The organization should make a detailed analysis of the monetary impact (positive or negative) for the organization of each of the measures considered. Particularly, it is also important to consider the impact of each measure on society, involving an adequate eco-nomic cost-benefit analysis. In the present paper, a case study in a textile finishing company is presented. The study concentrates on the dyeing and printing sections. For each of the potential risks, several preventive measures have been identified and the corresponding costs and benefits have been estimated. Subsequently, the Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C) of these measures has been calculated, both in financial terms (from the organisa-tion’s perspective) and in economic terms (including the benefits for the worker and for the Society). Results show that, while the financial analysis in terms of the company does not justify the preventive measures, when the externalities are taken into account, the B/C ratio increases significantly and investments are fully justified.

Urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants: risk factor analysis

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the correlation of risk factors to the occurrence of urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective study (1997) including full-term infants having a positive urine culture by bag specimen. Urine collection was based on: fever, weight loss > 10% of birth weight, nonspecific symptoms (feeding intolerance, failure to thrive, hypoactivity, debilitate suction, irritability), or renal and urinary tract malformations. In these cases, another urine culture by suprapubic bladder aspiration was collected to confirm the diagnosis. To compare and validate the risk factors in each group, the selected cases were divided into two groups: Group I - positive urine culture by bag specimen collection and negative urine culture by suprapubic aspiration, and Group II - positive urine culture by bag specimen collection and positive urine culture by suprapubic aspiration . RESULTS: Sixty one infants were studied, Group I, n = 42 (68.9%) and Group II, n = 19 (31.1%). The selected risk factors (associated infectious diseases, use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, renal and urinary tract malformations, mechanical ventilation, parenteral nutrition and intravascular catheter) were more frequent in Group II (p<0.05). Through relative risk analysis, risk factors were, in decreasing importance: parenteral nutrition, intravascular catheter, associated infectious diseases, use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, mechanical ventilation, and renal and urinary tract malformations. CONCLUSION: The results showed that parenteral nutrition, intravascular catheter, and associated infectious diseases contributed to increase the frequency of neonatal urinary tract infection, and in the presence of more than one risk factor, the occurrence of urinary tract infection rose up to 11 times.

Approaches to Supply Chain Risk Management: Identification, Analysis and Control

Supply chain risk management has emerged as an increasingly important issue in logistics as disruptions in the supply chain have become critical issues for many companies. The scientific literature on the subject is developing and in many respects the understanding of it is still in its infancy. Thus, there is a need for more information in order for scholars and practitioners to understand the causalities and interrelations that characterise the phenomenon. The aim of this dissertation is to narrow this gap by exploring key aspects of supply chain risk management through two maritime supply chains in the immediate region of the Gulf of Finland. The study contributes to the field in three different ways. Firstly, it facilitates the identification of risks on different levels of the supply chain through a systematic analysis of the processes and actors, and of the cognitive barriers that limit the actors’ visibility and their understanding of the operations and the risks involved. There is a clear need to increase collaboration and information exchange in order to improve visibility in the chain. Risk management should be a collaborative effort among the individual actors, aimed at obtaining a holistic picture. Secondly, the study contributes to the literature on risk analysis through the use of systemic frameworks that illustrate the causalities and linkages in the system, thereby making it easier to perceive the vulnerabilities. Thirdly, the study enhances current knowledge of risk control in identifying actor roles, risk visibility and risk controllability as being among the key factors determining risk-management effectiveness against supply-chain vulnerability. This dissertation is divided into two parts. The first part gives a general overview of the relevant literature, the research design and the conclusions of the study, and the second part comprises six research publications. Case-study methodology with systematic combining approach is used, where in-depth interviews, questionnaires and expert panel sessions are the main data collection methods. The study illustrates the current state of risk management in multimodal maritime supply chains, and develops frameworks for further analysis. The results imply that there are major differences between organizations in their ability to execute supply chain risk management. Further collaboration should be considered in order to facilitate the development of systematic and effective management processes.