Sex allocation in the polydomous leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex balzani

Logistic regression analysis was used to analyse sex allocation in a population of the leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex balzani occurring in a pasture in southern Brazil. The field sample consisted of 151 fungus-garden chambers (18 queenright and 133 queenless), belonging to 50 nests with three vertically stacked chambers per nest on average. Taking nest chamber as the unit of analysis, seven predictor variables were considered: sampling date, chamber depth, chamber volume, weight of fungus garden, presence of a queen, number of large workers, and number of small to medium workers. The population-level numerical proportion of females was 0.548 and the inferred proportional energetic investment in females 0.672. The former was not significantly different from 0.5 (P=0.168), but the latter was (P=0.0003). The proportional investment in females per fungus garden increased with the number of large workers present (P=0.0002) and decreased with the dry weight of the fungus garden (P=0.012). This implies that resource acquisition through foraging is likely to be a major proximate determinant of sex allocation. The negative correlation between female bias and fungus garden weight might be due to developing adult females requiring more food than males, but this hypothesis could not be confirmed by direct statistical evidence.

Long-Term Outcome and Prognostic Factors of Juvenile Dermatomyositis: A Multinational, Multicenter Study of 490 Patients

Objective. To investigate the long-term outcome and prognostic factors of juvenile dermatomyositis (DM) through a multinational, multicenter study.Methods. Patients consisted of inception cohorts seen between 1980 and 2004 in 27 centers in Europe and Latin America. Predictor variables were sex, continent, ethnicity, onset year, onset age, onset type, onset manifestations, course type, disease duration, and active disease duration. Outcomes were muscle strength/endurance, continued disease activity, cumulative damage, muscle damage, cutaneous damage, calcinosis, lipodystrophy, physical function, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL).Results. A total of 490 patients with a mean disease duration of 7.7 years were included. At the cross-sectional visit, 41.2-52.8% of patients, depending on the instrument used, had reduced muscle strength/endurance, but less than 10% had severe impairment. Persistently active disease was recorded in 41.2-60.5% of the patients, depending on the activity measure used. Sixty-nine percent of the patients had cumulative damage. The frequency of calcinosis and lipodystrophy was 23.6% and 9.7%, respectively. A total of 40.7% of the patients had decreased functional ability, but only 6.5% had major impairment. Only a small fraction had decreased HRQOL. A chronic course, either polycyclic or continuous, consistently predicted a poorer outcome. Mortality rate was 3.1%.Conclusion. This study confirms the marked improvement in functional outcome of juvenile DM when compared with earlier literature. However, many patients had continued disease activity and cumulative damage at followup. A chronic course was the strongest predictor of poor prognosis. These findings highlight the need for treatment strategies that enable a better control of disease activity over time and the reduction of nonreversible damage.

Factors associated with temporomandibular disorders pain in adolescents

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

More of the same: high functional redundancy in stream fish assemblages from tropical agroecosystems

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Allometric equations for estimating tree biomass in restored mixed-species Atlantic Forest stands

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Clinical trial design in non-invasive brain stimulation psychiatric research

Major depressive disorder (MDD) trials - investigating either non-pharmacological or pharmacological interventions - have shown mixed results. Many reasons explain this heterogeneity, but one that stands out is the trial design due to specific challenges in the field. We aimed therefore to review the methodology of non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS) trials and provide a framework to improve clinical trial design. We performed a systematic review for randomized, controlled MDD trials whose intervention was transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) or transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) in MEDLINE and other databases from April 2002 to April 2008. We created an unstructured checklist based on CONSORT guidelines to extract items such as power analysis, sham method, blinding assessment, allocation concealment, operational criteria used for MDD, definition of refractory depression and primary study hypotheses. Thirty-one studies were included. We found that the main methodological issues can be divided in to three groups: (1) issues related to phase II/small trials, (2) issues related to MDD trials and, (3) specific issues of NIBS studies. Taken together, they can threaten study validity and lead to inconclusive results. Feasible solutions include: estimating the sample size a priori; measuring the degree of refractoriness of the subjects; specifying the primary hypothesis and statistical tests; controlling predictor variables through stratification randomization methods or using strict eligibility criteria; adjusting the study design to the target population; using adaptive designs and exploring NIBS efficacy employing biological markers. In conclusion, our study summarizes the main methodological issues of NIBS trials and proposes a number of alternatives to manage them. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Extraoral Implants in the Rehabilitation of Craniofacial Defects: Implant and Prosthesis Survival Rates and Peri-Implant Soft Tissue Evaluation

Purpose: Few reports have evaluated cumulative survival rates of extraoral rehabilitation and peri-implant soft tissue reaction at long-term follow-up. The objective of this study was to evaluate implant and prosthesis survival rates and the soft tissue reactions around the extraoral implants used to support craniofacial prostheses. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was performed of patients who received implants for craniofacial rehabilitation from 2003 to 2010. Two outcome variables were considered: implant and prosthetic success. The following predictor variables were recorded: gender, age, implant placement location, number and size of implants, irradiation status in the treated field, date of prosthesis delivery, soft tissue response, and date of last follow-up. A statistical model was used to estimate survival rates and associated confidence intervals. We randomly selected 1 implant per patient for analysis. Data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to compare survival curves. Results: A total of 150 titanium implants were placed in 56 patients. The 2-year overall implant survival rates were 94.1% for auricular implants, 90.9% for nasal implants, 100% for orbital implants, and 100% for complex midfacial implants (P = .585). The implant survival rates were 100% for implants placed in irradiated patients and 94.4% for those placed in nonirradiated patients (P = .324). The 2-year overall prosthesis survival rates were 100% for auricular implants, 90.0% for nasal implants, 92.3% for orbital implants, and 100% for complex midfacial implants (P = .363). The evaluation of the peri-implant soft tissue response showed that 15 patients (26.7%) had a grade 0 soft tissue reaction, 30 (53.5%) had grade 1, 6 (10.7%) had grade 2, and 5 (8.9%) had grade 3. Conclusions: From this study, it was concluded that craniofacial rehabilitation with extraoral implants is a safe, reliable, and predictable method to restore the patient's normal appearance. (C) 2012 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Surg 70:1551-1557, 2012

Smooth Hazard Function Estimation for Interval Censored Data with Time Varying Covariates

In this paper we propose methods for smooth hazard estimation of a time variable where that variable is interval censored. These methods allow one to model the transformed hazard in terms of either smooth (smoothing splines) or linear functions of time and other relevant time varying predictor variables. We illustrate the use of this method on a dataset of hemophiliacs where the outcome, time to seroconversion for HIV, is interval censored and left-truncated.

On Time Series Analysis of Public Health and Biomedical Data

A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. Examples in public health include daily ozone concentrations, weekly admissions to an emergency department or annual expenditures on health care in the United States. Time series models are used to describe the dependence of the response at each time on predictor variables including covariates and possibly previous values in the series. Time series methods are necessary to account for the correlation among repeated responses over time. This paper gives an overview of time series ideas and methods used in public health research.

The international spine registry SPINE TANGO: status quo and first results

With an official life time of over 5 years, Spine Tango can meanwhile be considered the first international spine registry. In this paper we present an overview of frequency statistics of Spine Tango for demonstrating the genesis of questionnaire development and the constantly increasing activity in the registry. Results from two exemplar studies serve for showing concepts of data analysis applied to a spine registry. Between 2002 and 2006, about 6,000 datasets were submitted by 25 centres. Descriptive analyses were performed for demographic, surgical and follow-up data of three generations of the Spine Tango surgery and follow-up forms. The two exemplar studies used multiple linear regression models to identify potential predictor variables for the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion, and to evaluate which covariates influenced the length of hospital stay. Over the study period there was a rise in median patient age from 52.3 to 58.6 years in the Spine Tango data pool and an increasing percentage of degenerative diseases as main pathology from 59.9 to 71.4%. Posterior decompression was the most frequent surgical measure. About one-third of all patients had documented follow-ups. The complication rate remained below 10%. The exemplar studies identified "centre of intervention" and "number of segments of fusion" as predictors of the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion surgery. Length of hospital stay among patients with posterior fusion was significantly influenced by "centre of intervention", "surgeon credentials", "number of segments of fusion", "age group" and "sex". Data analysis from Spine Tango is possible but complicated by the incompatibility of questionnaire generations 1 and 2 with the more recent generation 3. Although descriptive and also analytic studies at evidence level 2++ can be performed, findings cannot yet be generalised to any specific country or patient population. Current limitations of Spine Tango include the low number and short duration of follow-ups and the lack of sufficiently detailed patient data on subgroup levels. Although the number of participants is steadily growing, no country is yet represented with a sufficient number of hospitals. Nevertheless, the benefits of the project for the whole spine community become increasingly visible.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND: Few data are available on the long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, where ART is being rapidly scaled up using a public health approach, with a limited repertoire of drugs. OBJECTIVES: To describe immunologic response to ART among ART patients in a network of cohorts from sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia. STUDY POPULATION/METHODS: Treatment-naive patients aged 15 and older from 27 treatment programs were eligible. Multilevel, linear mixed models were used to assess associations between predictor variables and CD4 cell count trajectories following ART initiation. RESULTS: Of 29 175 patients initiating ART, 8933 (31%) were excluded due to insufficient follow-up time and early lost to follow-up or death. The remaining 19 967 patients contributed 39 200 person-years on ART and 71 067 CD4 cell count measurements. The median baseline CD4 cell count was 114 cells/microl, with 35% having less than 100 cells/microl. Substantial intersite variation in baseline CD4 cell count was observed (range 61-181 cells/microl). Women had higher median baseline CD4 cell counts than men (121 vs. 104 cells/microl). The median CD4 cell count increased from 114 cells/microl at ART initiation to 230 [interquartile range (IQR) 144-338] at 6 months, 263 (IQR 175-376) at 1 year, 336 (IQR 224-472) at 2 years, 372 (IQR 242-537) at 3 years, 377 (IQR 221-561) at 4 years, and 395 (IQR 240-592) at 5 years. In multivariable models, baseline CD4 cell count was the most important determinant of subsequent CD4 cell count trajectories. CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate robust and sustained CD4 response to ART among patients remaining on therapy. Public health and programmatic interventions leading to earlier HIV diagnosis and initiation of ART could substantially improve patient outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Beliefs about back pain predict the recovery rate over 52 consecutive weeks

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the course of low-back pain over 52 weeks following current pain at baseline. Initial beliefs about the inevitability of the pain's negative consequences and fear avoidance beliefs were examined as potential risk factors for persistent low-back pain. METHODS: On a weekly basis over a period of one year, 264 participants reported both the intensity and frequency of their low-back pain and the degree to which it impaired their work performance. In a multilevel regression analysis, predictor variables included initial low-back pain intensity, age, gender, body mass index, anxiety/depression, participation in sport, heavy workload, time (1-52 weeks), and scores on the "back beliefs" and "fear-avoidance beliefs" questionnaires. RESULTS: The group mean values for both the intensity and frequency of weekly low-back pain, and the impairment of work performance due to such pain showed a recovery within the first 12 weeks. In a multilevel regression of 9497 weekly measurements, greater weekly low-back pain and impairment were predicted by higher levels of work-related fear avoidance beliefs. A significant interaction between time and the scores on both the work-related fear-avoidance and back beliefs questionnaires indicated faster recovery and pain relief over time in those who reported less fear-avoidance and fewer negative beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: Negative beliefs about the inevitability of adverse consequences of low-back pain and work-related, fear-avoidance beliefs are independent risk factors for poor recovery from low-back pain.

The HeartQoL: Part II. Validation of a new core health-related quality of life questionnaire for patients with ischemic heart disease

Background: Evaluation of health-related quality of life (HRQL) is important in improving the quality of patient care. The aim of this study was to determine the psychometric properties of the HeartQoL in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD), specifically angina, myocardial infarction (MI), or ischemic heart failure. Methods: Data for the interim validation of the HeartQoL questionnaire were collected in (a) a cross-sectional survey and (b) a prospective substudy of patients undergoing either a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or referred to cardiac rehabilitation (CR) and were then analyzed to determine the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the HeartQoL questionnaire. Results: We enrolled 6384 patients (angina, n = 2111, 33.1%; MI, n = 2351, 36.8%; heart failure, n = 1922, 30.1%) across 22 countries speaking 15 languages in the cross-sectional study and 730 patients with IHD in the prospective substudy. The HeartQoL questionnaire comprises 14-items with physical and emotional subscales and a global score (range 0–3 (poor to better HRQL). Cronbach’s α was consistently ≥0.80; convergent validity correlations between similar HeartQoL and SF-36 subscales were significant (r ≥ 0.60, p < 0.001); discriminative validity was confirmed with predictor variables: health transition, anxiety, depression, and functional status. HeartQoL score changes following either PCI or CR were significant (p < 0.001) with effect sizes ranging from 0.37–0.64. Conclusion: The HeartQoL questionnaire is reliable, valid, and responsive to change allowing clinicians and researchers to (a) assess baseline HRQL, (b) make between-diagnosis comparisons of HRQL, and (c) evaluate change in HRQL in patients with angina, MI, or heart failure with a single IHD-specific HRQL instrument.

Cognitive inertia and the implicit association test

The authors review the implicit association test (IAT), its use in marketing, and the methodology and validity issues that surround it. They focus on a validity problem that has not been investigated previously, namely, the impact of cognitive inertia on IAT effects. Cognitive inertia refers to the difficulty in switching from one categorization rule to another, which causes IAT effects to depend on the order of administration of the two IAT blocks. In Study 1, the authors observe an IAT effect when the compatible block precedes the incompatible block but not when it follows the incompatible block. In Studies 2 and 3, the IAT effect changes its sign when the order of the blocks reverses. Cognitive inertia distorts individual IAT scores and diminishes the correlations between IAT scores and predictor variables when the block order is counterbalanced between subjects. Study 4 shows that counterbalancing the block order repeatedly within subjects can eliminate cognitive inertia effects on the individual level. The authors conclude that researchers should either interpret IAT scores at the aggregate level or, if individual IAT scores are of interest, counterbalance the block order repeatedly within subjects.