Rannansiirtyminen ja ihmisen toimintaympäristön muutos Mätäjokilaakson alueella esihistoriallisella ajalla

In this thesis, I study the changing ladscape and human environment of the Mätäjoki Valley, West-Helsinki, using reconstructions and predictive modelling. The study is a part of a larger project funded by the city of Helsinki aming to map the past of the Mätäjoki Valley. The changes in landscape from an archipelago in the Ancylus Lake to a river valley are studied from 10000 to 2000 years ago. Alongside shore displacement, we look at the changing environment from human perspective and predict the location of dwelling sitesat various times. As a result, two map series were produced that show how the landscape changed and where inhabitance is predicted. To back them up, we have also looked at what previous research says about the history of the waterways, climate, vegetation and archaeology. The changing landscape of the river valley is reconstructed using GIS methods. For this purpose, new laser point data set was used and at the same time tested in the context landscape modelling. Dwelling sites were modeled with logistic regression analysis. The spatial predictive model combines data on the locations of the known dwelling sites, environmental factors and shore displacement data. The predictions were visualised into raster maps that show the predictions for inhabitance 3000 and 5000 years ago. The aim of these maps was to help archaeologists map potential spots for human activity. The produced landscape reconstructions clarified previous shore displacement studies of the Mätäjoki region and provided new information on the location of shoreline. From the shore displacement history of the Mätäjoki Valley arise the following stages: 1. The northernmost hills of the Mätäjoki Valley rose from Ancylus Lake approximately 10000 years ago. Shore displacement was fast during the following thousand years. 2. The area was an archipelago with a relatively steady shoreline 9000 7000 years ago. 8000 years ago the shoreline drew back in the middle and southern parts of the river valley because of the transgression of the Litorina Sea. 3. Mätäjoki was a sheltered bay of the Litorina Sea 6000 5000 years ago. The Vantaanjoki River started to flow into the Mätäjoki Valley approximately 5000 years ago. 4. The sediment plains in the southern part of the river valley rose from the sea rather quickly 5000 3000 years ago. Salt water still pushed its way into the southermost part of the valley 4000 years ago. 5. The shoreline proceeded to Pitäjänmäki rapids where it stayed at least a thousand years 3000 2000 years ago. The predictive models managed to predict the locations of dwelling sites moderately well. The most accurate predictions were found on the eastern shore and Malminkartano area. Of the environment variables sand and aspect of slope were found to have the best predictive power. From the results of this study we can conclude that the Mätäjoki Valley has been a favorable location to live especially 6000 5000 years ago when the climate was mild and vegetation lush. The laser point data set used here works best in shore displacement studies located in rural areas or if further specific palaeogeographic or hydrologic analysis in the research area is not needed.

NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP): Guidance for Regional Implementation

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Coastal Change Analysis Programl (C-CAP) is developing a nationally standardized database on landcover and habitat change in the coastal regions of the United States. C-CAP is part of the Estuarine Habitat Program (EHP) of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program (COP). C-CAP inventories coastal submersed habitats, wetland habitats, and adjacent uplands and monitors changes in these habitats on a one- to five-year cycle. This type of information and frequency of detection are required to improve scientific understanding of the linkages of coastal and submersed wetland habitats with adjacent uplands and with the distribution, abundance, and health of living marine resources. The monitoring cycle will vary according to the rate and magnitude of change in each geographic region. Satellite imagery (primarily Landsat Thematic Mapper), aerial photography, and field data are interpreted, classified, analyzed, and integrated with other digital data in a geographic information system (GIS). The resulting landcover change databases are disseminated in digital form for use by anyone wishing to conduct geographic analysis in the completed regions. C-CAP spatial information on coastal change will be input to EHP conceptual and predictive models to support coastal resource policy planning and analysis. CCAP products will include 1) spatially registered digital databases and images, 2) tabular summaries by state, county, and hydrologic unit, and 3) documentation. Aggregations to larger areas (representing habitats, wildlife refuges, or management districts) will be provided on a case-by-case basis. Ongoing C-CAP research will continue to explore techniques for remote determination of biomass, productivity, and functional status of wetlands and will evaluate new technologies (e.g. remote sensor systems, global positioning systems, image processing algorithms) as they become available. Selected hardcopy land-cover change maps will be produced at local (1:24,000) to regional scales (1:500,000) for distribution. Digital land-cover change data will be provided to users for the cost of reproduction. Much of the guidance contained in this document was developed through a series of professional workshops and interagency meetings that focused on a) coastal wetlands and uplands; b) coastal submersed habitat including aquatic beds; c) user needs; d) regional issues; e) classification schemes; f) change detection techniques; and g) data quality. Invited participants included technical and regional experts and representatives of key State and Federal organizations. Coastal habitat managers and researchers were given an opportunity for review and comment. This document summarizes C-CAP protocols and procedures that are to be used by scientists throughout the United States to develop consistent and reliable coastal change information for input to the C-CAP nationwide database. It also provides useful guidelines for contributors working on related projects. It is considered a working document subject to periodic review and revision.(PDF file contains 104 pages.)

Littoral vegetation of Lake Tohopekaliga: community descriptions prior to a large-scale fisheries habitat-enhancement project

An extreme dry-down and muck-removal project was conducted at Lake Tohopekaliga, Florida, in 2003-2004, to remove dense vegetation from inshore areas and improve habitat degraded by stabilized water levels. Vegetation was monitored from June 2002 to December 2003, to describe the pre-existing communities in terms of composition and distribution along the environmental gradients. Three study areas (Treatment-Selection Sites) were designed to test the efficacy of different treatments in enhancing inshore habitat, and five other study areas (Whole-Lake Monitoring Sites) were designed to monitor the responses of the emergent littoral vegetation as a whole. Five general community types were identified within the study areas by recording aboveground biomasses and stem densities of each species. These communities were distributed along water and soils gradients, with water depth and bulk density explaining most of the variation. The shallowest depths were dominated by a combination of Eleocharis spp., Luziola fluitans, and Panicum repens; while the deeper areas had communities of Nymphaea odorata and Nuphar luteum; Typha spp.; or Paspalidium geminatum and Hydrilla verticillata. Mineralized soils were common in both the shallow and deep-water communities, while the intermediate depths had high percentages of organic material in the soil. These intermediate depths (occurring just above and just below low pool stage) were dominated by Pontederia cordata, the main species targeted by the habitat enhancement project. This emergent community occurred in nearly monocultural bands around the lake (from roughly 60–120 cm in depth at high pool stage) often having more diverse floating mats along the deep-water edge. The organic barrier these mats create is believed to impede access of sport fish to shallow-water spawning areas, while the overall low diversity of the community is evidence of its competitive nature in stabilized waters. With continued monitoring of these study areas long-term effects of the restoration project can be assessed and predictive models may be created to determine the efficacy and legitimacy of such projects in the future.

A model for energy and morphology of crystalline grain boundaries with arbitrary geometric character

It has been well-established that interfaces in crystalline materials are key players in the mechanics of a variety of mesoscopic processes such as solidification, recrystallization, grain boundary migration, and severe plastic deformation. In particular, interfaces with complex morphologies have been observed to play a crucial role in many micromechanical phenomena such as grain boundary migration, stability, and twinning. Interfaces are a unique type of material defect in that they demonstrate a breadth of behavior and characteristics eluding simplified descriptions. Indeed, modeling the complex and diverse behavior of interfaces is still an active area of research, and to the author's knowledge there are as yet no predictive models for the energy and morphology of interfaces with arbitrary character. The aim of this thesis is to develop a novel model for interface energy and morphology that i) provides accurate results (especially regarding "energy cusp" locations) for interfaces with arbitrary character, ii) depends on a small set of material parameters, and iii) is fast enough to incorporate into large scale simulations.

In the first half of the work, a model for planar, immiscible grain boundary is formulated. By building on the assumption that anisotropic grain boundary energetics are dominated by geometry and crystallography, a construction on lattice density functions (referred to as "covariance") is introduced that provides a geometric measure of the order of an interface. Covariance forms the basis for a fully general model of the energy of a planar interface, and it is demonstrated by comparison with a wide selection of molecular dynamics energy data for FCC and BCC tilt and twist boundaries that the model accurately reproduces the energy landscape using only three material parameters. It is observed that the planar constraint on the model is, in some cases, over-restrictive; this motivates an extension of the model.

In the second half of the work, the theory of faceting in interfaces is developed and applied to the planar interface model for grain boundaries. Building on previous work in mathematics and materials science, an algorithm is formulated that returns the minimal possible energy attainable by relaxation and the corresponding relaxed morphology for a given planar energy model. It is shown that the relaxation significantly improves the energy results of the planar covariance model for FCC and BCC tilt and twist boundaries. The ability of the model to accurately predict faceting patterns is demonstrated by comparison to molecular dynamics energy data and experimental morphological observation for asymmetric tilt grain boundaries. It is also demonstrated that by varying the temperature in the planar covariance model, it is possible to reproduce a priori the experimentally observed effects of temperature on facet formation.

Finally, the range and scope of the covariance and relaxation models, having been demonstrated by means of extensive MD and experimental comparison, future applications and implementations of the model are explored.

Desenvolvimento e validação de modelo preditivo e avaliação de testes de diagnóstico por classe latente para o parasitismo por L. chagasi em cães atendidos no Hospital Veterinário Universitário da UFPI, Teresina

A leishmaniose visceral americana (LVA) é uma doença em expansão no Brasil, para a qual se dispõem de poucas, e aparentemente ineficientes, estratégias de controle. Um dos grandes problemas para a contenção da leishmaniose visceral americana é a falta de um método acurado de identificação dos cães infectados, considerados os principais reservatórios da doença no meio urbano. Neste sentido, a caracterização de marcadores clínico-laboratoriais da infecção neste reservatório e a avaliação mais adequada do desempenho de testes para diagnóstico da infecção podem contribuir para aumentar a efetividade das estratégias de controle da LVA. Com isso, o presente estudo tem dois objetivos principais: (1) desenvolver e validar um modelo de predição para o parasitismo por Leishmania chagasi em cães, baseado em resultados de testes sorológicos e sinais clínicos e (2) avaliar a sensibilidade e especificidade de critérios clínicos, sorológicos e parasitológicos para detecção de infecção canina por L. chagasi mediante análise de classe latente. O primeiro objetivo foi desenvolvido a partir de estudo em que foram obtidos dados de exames clínico, sorológico e parasitológico de todos os cães, suspeitos ou não de LVA, atendidos no Hospital Veterinário Universitário da Universidade Federal do Piauí (HVU-UFPI), em Teresina, nos anos de 2003 e 2004, totalizando 1412 animais. Modelos de regressão logística foram construídos com os animais atendidos em 2003 com a finalidade de desenvolver um modelo preditivo para o parasitismo com base nos sinais clínicos e resultados de sorologia por Imunofluorescência Indireta (IFI). Este modelo foi validado nos cães atendidos no hospital em 2004. Para a avaliação da área abaixo da curva ROC (auROC), sensibilidade, especificidade, valores preditivos positivo (VPP), valores preditivos negativo (VPN) e acurácia global, foram criados três modelos: um somente baseado nas variáveis clínicas, outro considerando somente o resultado sorológico e um último considerando conjuntamente a clínica e a sorologia. Dentre os três, o último modelo apresentou o melhor desempenho (auROC=90,1%, sensibilidade=82,4%, especificidade=81,6%, VPP=73,4%, VPN=88,2% e acurácia global=81,9%). Conclui-se que o uso de modelos preditivos baseados em critérios clínicos e sorológicos para o diagnóstico da leishmaniose visceral canina pode ser de utilidade no processo de avaliação da infecção canina, promovendo maior agilidade na contenção destes animais com a finalidade de reduzir os níveis de transmissão. O segundo objetivo foi desenvolvido por meio de um estudo transversal com 715 cães de idade entre 1 mês e 13 anos, com raça variada avaliados por clínicos veterinários no HVU-UFPI, no período de janeiro a dezembro de 2003. As sensibilidades e especificidades de critérios clínicos, sorológicos e parasitológicos para detecção de infecção canina por Leishmania chagasi foram estimadas por meio de análise de classe latente, considerando quatro modelos de testes e diferentes pontos de corte. As melhores sensibilidades estimadas para os critérios clínico, sorológico e parasitológico foram de 60%, 95% e 66%, respectivamente. Já as melhores especificidades estimadas para os critérios clínico, sorológico e parasitológico foram de 77%, 90% e 100%, respectivamente. Conclui-se que o uso do exame parasitológico como padrão-ouro para validação de testes diagnósticos não é apropriado e que os indicadores de acurácia dos testes avaliados são insuficientes e não justificam que eles sejam usados isoladamente para diagnóstico da infecção com a finalidade de controle da doença.

Ecological study of chalk streams. Lambourn project. Interim report October 1977 to April 1979

Few detailed studies have been made on the ecology of the chalk streams. A complex community of plants and animals is present and much more information is required to achieve an understanding of the requirements and interactions of all the species. It is important that the rivers affected by this scheme should be studied and kept under continued observation so that any effects produced by the scheme can be detected. The report gives a synopsis of work carried out between 1971 and 1979 focusing on the present phase 1978-1979. It assumes some familiarity with the investigations carried out on the River Lambourn during the preceding years. The aims of the present phase of the project may be divided into two broad aspects. The first involves collecting further information in the field and includes three objectives: a continuation of studies on the Lambourn sites at Bagnor; comparative studies on other chalk streams; and a comparative study on a limestone stream. The second involves detailed analyses of data previously collected to document the recovery of the Lambourn from operational pumping and to attempt to develop simple conceptual and predictive models applicable over a wide range of physical and geographical variables. (PDF contains 43 pages)

Modelling algal blooms

This is the final report on the research project to develop predictive models to quantify algal blooms in relation to environmental variables. The project's objectives were to develop models simulating the impact of vertical structure and mass transfer upon the dynamics of planktonic algae, including cyanobacteria, in lakes and reservoirs, to assess the potential of sedimentary phosphorus to sustain algal growth following reduction in external loading and to expand and enhance formulations to predict behaviour of blue-green algal populations and to incorporate these into a model software package. As part of the project a strategy for the production of a user-friendly packaging for the modelling software PROTEC-2 adaptable to particular sites was developed.

Modelagem da tensão superficial de misturas de hidrocarbonetos

Esta dissertação apresenta um novo modelo criado para a previsão do valor da tensão superficial de misturas de hidrocarbonetos. Pode ser utilizado na forma preditiva ou correlativa. Este modelo foi baseado no modelo preditivo para soluções ideais de HildebrandScott (1950) e no modelo correlativo de JouybanAcree (2004). Outras regras de mistura foram avaliadas e comparadas com o modelo proposto, incluindo abordagens clássicas como de Sprow e Prausnitz, parácoro e estados correspondentes. Foram avaliados os desempenhos dos modelos escolhidos na previsão e na correlação da tensão superficial de misturas de hidrocarbonetos em diferentes temperaturas que continham diferentes assimetrias na mistura, tanto em natureza química (e.g., parafínicos, naftênicos e aromáticos) quanto em tamanho de cadeia. No total foram empregados 773 dados experimentais. Dentre os modelos preditivos, o modelo proposto foi o de melhor desempenho. Para sistemas com comportamento próximo da idealidade, esse modelo apresentou desvios em relação aos dados experimentais compatíveis com o erro experimental. Todos os modelos correlativos estudados apresentaram desvios essencialmente da ordem do erro experimental. O modelo proposto é importante, pois é capaz de prever a tensão superficial de misturas binárias aproximadamente ideais de hidrocarbonetos com elevada acurácia, além de permitir a correlação eficiente dos dados de todas as misturas estudadas

The relationship between catch and effort and its effect on predicted yields of sardine fisheries in Lake Kariba

There is an unusual relationship between catch per unit effort and effort in the Lake Kariba sardine (Limnothrissa miodon) fishery. This is apparently a results of ecological changes in the lake following the decline of the Salvinia mats that existed there until 1973. Predictive models based on the entire data set (1974-89) are of limited value because they are influenced by the rapid decline in catch per unit effort that took place from 1974 to 1978. A model based on the 1980-89 data indicates that the current catch could be increased substantially. Some empirical models and features of the sardine's biology suggest that it is a realistic model.

The cost of quinine Cinchona pubescens control on Santa Cruz Island, Galapagos

We analyse the cost of controlling the invasive quinine tree Cinchona pubescens Vahl in the highlands of Santa Cruz Island, Galapagos. Control costs in ten 400 m2 plots formed the basis for estimating the cost of control over the whole island. In the plots, densities were 2100–24,000 stems/ha (stems >150 cm tall) and 55,000–138,000 stems/ha (all size classes combined). Control involved uprooting small plants, and applying of a mix of metsulfuron methyl and picloram to cut stumps or to machete cuts in the bark of larger trees. These methods are presently used by Galapagos National Park field crews to control quinine. Costs (in man hours, herbicide and US$) were related to stem density; the density of stems summed across four height classes was a better predictor of costs than density of any one size class. Regressions (on all size classes combined) formed the basis for predictive models of costs. Costs ranged from $14 to $2225 per ha depending on stem density. The amount of herbicide (active ingredient/ha) that must be applied to high density stands of quinine is higher than typical rates of application in an agricultural setting. The cost of treating all existing plants once across quinine’s known range on Santa Cruz Island (c. 11,000 ha) was estimated at c. US$1.65 million. CDF Contribution Number 1013.

Condições de vida e mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares na área de influência do Complexo Petroquímico do Estado do Rio de Janeiro - COMPERJ.

O objetivo desta tese foi identificar e caracterizar áreas com altas taxas de mortalidade por doenças do aparelho circulatório (DAC) e seus dois principais subgrupos de causas: as doenças isquêmicas do coração (DIC) e as doenças cerebrovasculares (DCV), entre os anos de 2008 e 2012 na área de influência do complexo petroquímico do estado do Rio de Janeiro COMPERJ, por meio de métodos estatísticos e sistemas de informações geográficas (SIG). Os resultados da investigação são apresentados na forma de dois manuscritos. O primeiro objetivou descrever o perfil da distribuição espacial da mortalidade por (DAC), caracterizar e predizer territórios com maior risco de morte por esta causa, com base em classificação das unidades espaciais por indicador de qualidade urbana (IQUmod). A análise multivariada foi realizada por meio do método conhecido como árvore de decisão e regressão, baseado em algoritmo CART para a obtenção do modelo preditivo para UVLs com diferentes riscos de mortalidade por DAC. O modelo desenvolvido foi capaz de discriminar sete conjuntos de UVLs, com diferentes taxas médias de mortalidades. O subconjunto que apresenta a maior taxa média (1037/100 mil hab.) apresenta 3 UVLs com mais de 75% de seus domicílios com abastecimento de água inadequado e valor de IQUmod acima de 0.6. Conclui-se que na área de influência do COMPERJ existem áreas onde a mortalidade por DAC se apresenta com maior magnitude e que a identificação dessas áreas pode auxiliar na elaboração, diagnóstico, prevenção e planejamento de ações de saúde direcionadas aos grupos mais susceptíveis. O segundo manuscrito teve por objetivo descrever o perfil da distribuição espacial da mortalidade por DIC e DCV em relação ao contexto socioambiental segundo áreas geográficas. O modelo de regressão linear de Poisson com parâmetro de estimação via quasi-verossimilhança foi usado para verificar associação entre as variáveis. Foram identificados como fatores de risco para mortalidade por DIC e DCV a variável relativa a melhor renda e maior distância entre domicílios e unidades de saúde; a proporção de domicílios em ruas pavimentadas aparece como fator de proteção. A distribuição espacial e as associações encontradas entre os desfechos e preditores sugerem que as populações residentes em localidades mais afastadas dos centros urbanos apresentam maiores taxas de mortalidade por DIC e DCV e que isto pode estar relacionado a contextos rurais de localização das residências e a distância geográfica destas populações aos serviços de saúde. Aponta-se para a necessidade de desenvolvimento de ações que propiciem maior amplitude no atendimento em saúde, no intuito da redução de eventos cardiovasculares mórbidos incidentes naquelas populações.

Habitat availability and heterogeneity and the Indo-Pacific warm pool as predictors of marine species richness in the tropical Indo-Pacific

Range overlap patterns were observed in a dataset of 10,446 expert-derived marine species distribution maps, including 8,295 coastal fishes, 1,212 invertebrates (crustaceans and molluscs), 820 reef-building corals, 50 seagrasses and 69 mangroves. Distributions of tropical Indo-Pacific shore fishes revealed a concentration of species richness in the northern apex and central region of the Coral Triangle epicenter of marine biodiversity. This pattern was supported by distributions of invertebrates and habitat-forming primary producers. Habitat availability, heterogeneity and sea surface temperatures were highly correlated with species richness across spatial grains ranging from 23,000 to 5,100,000 km2 with and without correction for autocorrelation. The consistent retention of habitat variables in our predictive models supports the area of refuge hypothesis which posits reduced extinction rates in the Coral Triangle. This does not preclude support for a center of origin hypothesis that suggests increased speciation in the region may contribute to species richness. In addition, consistent retention of sea surface temperatures in models suggests that available kinetic energy may also be an important factor in shaping patterns of marine species richness. Kinetic energy may hasten rates of both extinction and speciation. The position of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to the east of the Coral Triangle in central Oceania and a pattern of increasing species richness from this region into the central and northern parts of the Coral Triangle suggests peripheral speciation with enhanced survival in the cooler parts of the Coral Triangle that also have highly concentrated available habitat. These results indicate that conservation of habitat availability and heterogeneity is important to reduce extinction and that changes in sea surface temperatures may influence the evolutionary potential of the region.

Prediction of mesophotic coral distributions in the Au‘au Channel, Hawaii

The primary objective of this study was to predict the distribution of mesophotic hard corals in the Au‘au Channel in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). Mesophotic hard corals are light-dependent corals adapted to the low light conditions at approximately 30 to 150 m in depth. Several physical factors potentially influence their spatial distribution, including aragonite saturation, alkalinity, pH, currents, water temperature, hard substrate availability and the availability of light at depth. Mesophotic corals and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) have increasingly been the subject of scientific study because they are being threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors. They are the focus of this spatial modeling effort because the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary (HIHWNMS) is exploring the expansion of its scope—beyond the protection of the North Pacific Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—to include the conservation and management of these ecosystem components. The present study helps to address this need by examining the distribution of mesophotic corals in the Au‘au Channel region. This area is located between the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and includes parts of the Kealaikahiki, Alalākeiki and Kalohi Channels. It is unique, not only in terms of its geology, but also in terms of its physical oceanography and local weather patterns. Several physical conditions make it an ideal place for mesophotic hard corals, including consistently good water quality and clarity because it is flushed by tidal currents semi-diurnally; it has low amounts of rainfall and sediment run-off from the nearby land; and it is largely protected from seasonally strong wind and wave energy. Combined, these oceanographic and weather conditions create patches of comparatively warm, calm, clear waters that remain relatively stable through time. Freely available Maximum Entropy modeling software (MaxEnt 3.3.3e) was used to create four separate maps of predicted habitat suitability for: (1) all mesophotic hard corals combined, (2) Leptoseris, (3) Montipora and (4) Porites genera. MaxEnt works by analyzing the distribution of environmental variables where species are present, so it can find other areas that meet all of the same environmental constraints. Several steps (Figure 0.1) were required to produce and validate four ensemble predictive models (i.e., models with 10 replicates each). Approximately 2,000 georeferenced records containing information about mesophotic coral occurrence and 34 environmental predictors describing the seafloor’s depth, vertical structure, available light, surface temperature, currents and distance from shoreline at three spatial scales were used to train MaxEnt. Fifty percent of the 1,989 records were randomly chosen and set aside to assess each model replicate’s performance using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under the Curve (AUC) values. An additional 1,646 records were also randomly chosen and set aside to independently assess the predictive accuracy of the four ensemble models. Suitability thresholds for these models (denoting where corals were predicted to be present/absent) were chosen by finding where the maximum number of correctly predicted presence and absence records intersected on each ROC curve. Permutation importance and jackknife analysis were used to quantify the contribution of each environmental variable to the four ensemble models.

Introduction to the development of an information management system for soil mix technology using artificial neural networks

This paper introduces current work in collating data from different projects using soil mix technology and establishing trends using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Variation in unconfined compressive strength as a function of selected soil mix variables (e.g., initial soil water content and binder dosage) is observed through the data compiled from completed and on-going soil mixing projects around the world. The potential and feasibility of ANNs in developing predictive models, which take into account a large number of variables, is discussed. The main objective of the work is the management and effective utilization of salient variables and the development of predictive models useful for soil mix technology design. Based on the observed success in the predictions made, this paper suggests that neural network analysis for the prediction of properties of soil mix systems is feasible. © ASCE 2011.

Cumulative inbreeding rate in hatchery-reared indian major carps of Karnataka and Maharashtra states

The state fisheries department hatcheries are the major suppliers of seed to the farmers in Karnataka and Maharashtra. The brood stocks of these hatcheries are genetically closed units. In the present study, effective population size and cumulative inbreeding rates were estimated. The cumulative inbreeding rates ranged from 2.69 to 13.75, 8.63 to 15.21 and 3.02 to 5.88 per cent for catla, mrigal and rohu, respectively, in Karnataka state hatcheries. In Maharashtra, the cumulative inbreeding rates for catla ranged from 7.81 to 39.34 per cent and it was 5.84 to 14.09 and 2.46 to 10.20 per cent for mrigal and rohu, respectively. To estimate the inbreeding rates in future generations, predictive models were developed using linear regression, and polynomial and power equations separately for each hatchery. Their multiple correlation and standard errors suggested that simple linear regression can predict the future inbreeding rate efficiently.