922 resultados para Prediction Models for Air Pollution
Resumo:
Outdoor air pollution is a killer. A recent report from the World Health Organization estimated that 3.7 million deaths per year are due to outdoor air pollution. Most of these deaths are in low and middle income countries, with China being the country that often springs to mind. However, Australia still has a relatively big air pollution problem with an estimated 3,000 deaths per year. Traffic pollution is the major contributor to urban air pollution in Australia. Extreme events, such dust storms, bushfires and the recent coal fire in Morwell, dramatically increase pollution levels (for days or weeks) and are also very hazardous to health. Australian governments in the last 30 years have committed to improving air quality, and policies have been discussed and implemented with the aim of creating cleaner air. One key policy measure is the National Environment Protection Measures for air quality. These set standards for six important outdoor pollutants. Their key goal is to create “ambient air quality that allows for the adequate protection of human health and wellbeing”.
Resumo:
Although wood smoke pollution has been linked to health problems, wood burning remains a popular form of domestic heating in many countries across the world. In this paper, we describe the rhetoric of resistance to wood heater regulation amongst citizens in the regional Australian town of Armidale, where wood smoke levels regularly exceed national health advisory limits. We discuss how this is related to particular sources of resistance, such as affective attachment to wood heating and socio-cultural norms. The research draws on six focus groups with participants from households with and without wood heating. With reference to practice theory, we argue that citizen discourses favouring wood burning draw upon a rich suite of justifications and present this activity as a natural and traditional activity promoting comfort and cohesion. Such discourses also emphasise the identity of the town as a rural community and the supposed gemeinschaft qualities of such places. We show that, in this domain of energy policy, it is not enough to present ‘facts’ which have little emotional association or meaning for the populace. Rather, we need understand how social scripts, often localised, inform identity and practice.
Resumo:
Air pollution is a persistent problem in urban areas, and traffic emissions are a major cause of poor air quality. Policies to curb pollution levels often involve raising the price of using private vehicles, for example, congestion charges. We were interested in whether higher fuel prices were associated with decreased air pollution levels. We examined an association between diesel and petrol prices and four traffic-related pollutants in Brisbane from 2010 to 2013. We used a regression model and examined pollution levels up to 16 days after the price change. Higher diesel prices were associated with statistically significant short-term reductions in carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. Changes in petrol prices had no impact on air pollution. Raising diesel taxes in Australia could be justified as a public health measure. As raising taxes is politically unpopular, an alternative political approach would be to remove schemes that put a downward pressure on fuel prices, such as industry subsidies and shopping vouchers that give fuel discounts.
Estimating the burden of disease attributable to urban outdoor air pollution in South Africa in 2000
Resumo:
Objectives To quantify the mortality burden attributed to urban outdoor air pollution in South Africa in 2000. Design The study followed comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology developed by the World Heath Organization (WHO). In most urban areas, annual mean concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters less than 10 μum (PM10) from monitoring network data and PM with diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) derived using a ratio method were weighted according to population size. PM10 and PM2.5 data from air-quality assessment studies in areas not covered by the network were also included. Population-attributable fractions calculated using risk coefficients presented in the WHO study were weighted by the proportion of the total population (33%) in urban environments, and applied to revised estimates of deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) for South Africa in 2000. Setting South Africa. Subjects Children under 5 years and adults 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and YLLs from lung cancer and cardiopulmonary disease in adults (30 years and older), and from acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in children aged 0 - 4 years. Results Outdoor air pollution in urban areas in South Africa was estimated to cause 3.7% of the national mortality from cardiopulmonary disease and 5.1% of mortality attributable to cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung in adults aged 30 years and older, and 1.1% of mortality from ARIs in children under 5 years of age. This amounts to 4 637 or 0.9% (95% uncertainty interval 0.3 - 1.5%) of all deaths and about 42 000 YLLs, or 0.4% (95% uncertainty interval 0.1 - 0.7%) of all YLLs in persons in South Africa in 2000. Conclusion Urban air pollution has under-recognised public health impacts in South Africa. Fossil fuel combustion emissions and traffic-related air pollution remain key targets for public health in South Africa.
Resumo:
Ever growing populations in cities are associated with a major increase in road vehicles and air pollution. The overall high levels of urban air pollution have been shown to be of a significant risk to city dwellers. However, the impacts of very high but temporally and spatially restricted pollution, and thus exposure, are still poorly understood. Conventional approaches to air quality monitoring are based on networks of static and sparse measurement stations. However, these are prohibitively expensive to capture tempo-spatial heterogeneity and identify pollution hotspots, which is required for the development of robust real-time strategies for exposure control. Current progress in developing low-cost micro-scale sensing technology is radically changing the conventional approach to allow real-time information in a capillary form. But the question remains whether there is value in the less accurate data they generate. This article illustrates the drivers behind current rises in the use of low-cost sensors for air pollution management in cities, whilst addressing the major challenges for their effective implementation.
Resumo:
Background An increase in bicycle commuting participation may improve public health and traffic congestion in cities. Information on air pollution exposure (such as perception, symptoms and risk management) contributes to the responsible promotion of bicycle commuting participation. Methods To determine perceptions, symptoms and willingness for specific exposure risk management strategies of exposure to air pollution, a questionnaire-based cross-sectional investigation was conducted with adult bicycle commuters (n = 153; age = 41 ± 11 yr; 28% female). Results Frequency of acute respiratory signs and symptoms are positively-associated with in- and post-commute compared to pre-commute time periods (p < 0.05); greater positive-association is with respiratory disorder compared to healthy, and female compared to male, participants. The perception (although not signs or symptoms) of in-commute exposure to air pollution is positive-associated with the estimated level of in-commute proximity to motorised traffic. The majority of participants indicated a willingness (which varied with health status and gender) to adopt risk management strategies (with certain practical features) if shown to be appropriate and effective. Conclusions While acute signs and symptoms of air pollution exposure are indicated with bicycle commuting, and more so in susceptible individuals, there is willingness to manage exposure risk by adopting effective strategies with desirable features.
Resumo:
A quantitative understanding of outdoor air quality in school environments is crucial given that air pollution levels inside classrooms are significantly influenced by outdoor pollution sources. To date, only a handful of studies have been conducted on this important topic in developing countries. The aim of this study was to quantify pollutant levels in the outdoor environment of a school in Bhutan and assess the factors driving them. Measurements were conducted for 16 weeks, spanning the wet and dry seasons, in a rural school in Bhutan. PM10, PM2.5, particle number (PN) and CO were measured daily using real-time instruments, while weekly samples for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbonyls and NO2 were collected using a passive sampling method. Overall mean PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations (µg/m3) were 27 and 13 for the wet, and 36 and 29 for the dry season, respectively. Only wet season data were available for PN concentrations, with a mean of 2.56 × 103 particles/cm3. Mean CO concentrations were below the detection limit of the instrumentation for the entire measurement period. Only low levels of eight VOCs were detected in both the wet and dry seasons, which presented different seasonal patterns in terms of the concentration of different compounds. The notable carbonyls were formaldehyde and hexaldehyde, with mean concentrations (µg/m3) of 2.37 and 2.41 for the wet, and 6.22 and 0.34 for the dry season, respectively. Mean NO2 cocentration for the dry season was 1.7 µg/m3, while it was below the detection limit of the instrumentation for the wet season. The pollutant concentrations were associated with a number of factors, such as cleaning and combustion activities in and around the school. A comparison with other school studies showed comparable results with a few of the studies, but in general, we found lower pollutant concentrations in the present study.
Resumo:
Background Little information exists regarding the interaction effects of obesity with long-term air pollution exposure on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and stroke in areas of high pollution. The aim of the present study is to examine whether obesity modifies CVD-related associations among people living in an industrial province of northeast China. Methods We studied 24,845 Chinese adults, aged 18 to 74 years old, from three Northeastern Chinese cities in 2009 utilizing a cross-sectional study design. Body weight and height were measured by trained observers. Overweight and obesity were defined as a body mass index (BMI) between 25–29.9 and ≥ 30 kg/m2, respectively. Prevalence rate and related risk factors of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were investigated by a questionnaire. Three-year (2006–2008) average concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxides (NO2), and ozone (O3) were measured by fixed monitoring stations. All the participants lived within 1 km of air monitoring sites. Two-level logistic regression (personal level and district-specific pollutant level) was used to examine these effects, controlling for covariates. Results We observed significant interactions between exposure and obesity on CVDs and stroke. The associations between annual pollutant concentrations and CVDs and stroke were strongest in obese subjects (OR 1.15–1.47 for stroke, 1.33–1.59 for CVDs), less strong in overweight subjects (OR 1.22–1.35 for stroke, 1.07–1.13 for CVDs), and weakest in normal weight subjects (OR ranged from 0.98–1.01 for stroke, 0.93–1.15 for CVDs). When stratified by gender, these interactions were significant only in women. Conclusions Study findings indicate that being overweight and obese may enhance the effects of air pollution on the prevalence of CVDs and stroke in Northeastern metropolitan China. Further studies will be needed to investigate the temporality of BMI relative to exposure and onset of disease.
Resumo:
Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.
Resumo:
Identifying inequalities in air pollution levels across population groups can help address environmental justice concerns. We were interested in assessing these inequalities across major urban areas in Australia. We used a land-use regression model to predict ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels and sought the best socio-economic and population predictor variables. We used a generalised least squares model that accounted for spatial correlation in NO2 levels to examine the associations between the variables. We found that the best model included the index of economic resources (IER) score as a non-linear variable and the percentage of non-Indigenous persons as a linear variable. NO2 levels decreased with increasing IER scores (higher scores indicate less disadvantage) in almost all major urban areas, and NO2 also decreased slightly as the percentage of non-Indigenous persons increased. However, the magnitude of differences in NO2 levels was small and may not translate into substantive differences in health.
Resumo:
Exposure assessment studies conducted in developing countries have been based on fixed-site monitoring to date. This is a major deficiency, leading to errors in estimating the actual exposures, which are a function of time spent and pollutant concentrations in different microenvironments. This study quantified school children’s daily personal exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) using real-time monitoring, as well as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NO2 using passive sampling in rural Bhutan in order to determine the factors driving the exposures. An activity diary was used to track children’s time activity patterns, and difference in mean exposure levels across sex and indoor/outdoor were investigated with ANOVA. 82 children, attending three primary schools participated in this study; S1 and S2 during the wet season and S3 during the dry season. Mean daily UFP exposure (cm-3) was 1.08 × 104 for children attending S1, 9.81 × 103 for S2, and 4.19 × 104 for S3. The mean daily NO2 exposure (µg m-3) was 4.27 for S1, 3.33 for S2 and 5.38 for S3 children. Likewise, children attending S3 also experienced higher daily exposure to a majority of the VOCs than those attending S1 and S2. Time-series of UFP personal exposures provided detailed information on identifying sources of these particles and quantifying their contributions to the total daily exposures for each microenvironment. The highest UFP exposure resulted from cooking/eating, contributing to 64% of the daily exposure, due to firewood combustion in houses using traditional mud cookstoves. The lowest UFP exposures were during the hours that children spent outdoors at school. The outcomes of this study highlight the significant contributions of lifestyle and socio-economic factors in personal exposures and have applications in environmental risk assessment and household air pollution mitigation in Bhutan.
Resumo:
Human exposures in transportation microenvironments are poorly represented by ambient stationary monitoring. A number of on-road studies using vehicle-based mobile monitoring have been conducted to address this. Most previous studies were conducted on urban roads in developed countries where the primary emission source was vehicles. Few studies have examined on-road pollution in developing countries in urban settings. Currently, no study has been conducted for roadways in rural environments where a substantial proportion of the population live. This study aimed to characterize on-road air quality on the East-West Highway (EWH) in Bhutan and identify its principal sources. We conducted six mobile measurements of PM10, particle number (PN) count and CO along the entire 570 km length of the EWH. We divided the EWH into five segments, R1-R5, taking the road length between two district towns as a single road segment. The pollutant concentrations varied widely along the different road segments, with the highest concentrations for R5 compared with other road segments (PM10 = 149 µg/m3, PN = 5.74 × 104 particles/cm-3, CO = 0.19 ppm), which is the final segment of the road to the capital. Apart from vehicle emissions, the dominant sources were road works, unpaved roads and roadside combustion activities. Overall, the highest contributions above the background levels were made by unpaved roads for PM10 (6 times background), and vehicle emissions for PN and CO (5 and 15 times background, respectively). Notwithstanding the differences in instrumentation used and particle size range measured, the current study showed lower PN concentrations compared with similar on-road studies. However, concentrations were still high enough that commuters, road maintenance workers and residents living along the EWH, were potentially exposed to elevated pollutant concentrations from combustion and non-combustion sources. Future studies should focus on assessing the dispersion patterns of roadway pollutants and defining the short- and long-term health impacts of exposure in Bhutan, as well as in other developing countries with similar characteristics.
Resumo:
Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and the evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce new global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990-2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were then applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990 – 2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world’s population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries, in contrast to increases estimated in South Asia, throughout much of Southeast Asia, and in China. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased in most countries from 1990 - 2013, with modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.