Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Investigation and prediction of sea level variations in the northern coasts of Persian Gulf using artificial neural network

Sea- level variations have a significant impact on coastal areas. Prediction of sea level variations expected from the pre most critical information needs associated with the sea environment. For this, various methods exist. In this study, on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf have been studied relation to the effectiveness of parameters such as pressure, temperature and wind speed on sea leve and associated with global parameters such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index and NAO index and present statistic models for prediction of sea level. In the next step by using artificial neural network predict sea level for first in this region. Then compared results of the models. Prediction using statistical models estimated in terms correlation coefficient R = 0.84 and root mean square error (RMS) 21.9 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.85 and root mean square error (RMS) 48.4 cm for Rajai station, While neural network used to have 4 layers and each middle layer six neurons is best for prediction and produces the results reliably in terms of correlation coefficient with R = 0.90126 and the root mean square error (RMS) 13.7 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.93916 and the root mean square error (RMS) 22.6 cm for Rajai station. Therefore, the proposed methodology could be successfully used in the study area.

Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

An Intelligent System for Petroleum Well Drilling Cutting Analysis

Cutting analysis is a important and crucial task task to detect and prevent problems during the petroleum well drilling process. Several studies have been developed for drilling inspection, but none of them takes care about analysing the generated cutting at the vibrating shale shakers. Here we proposed a system to analyse the cutting's concentration at the vibrating shale shakers, which can indicate problems during the petroleum well drilling process, such that the collapse of the well borehole walls. Cutting's images are acquired and sent to the data analysis module, which has as the main goal to extract features and to classify frames according to one of three previously classes of cutting's volume. A collection of supervised classifiers were applied in order to allow comparisons about their accuracy and efficiency. We used the Optimum-Path Forest (OPF), Artificial Neural Network using Multi layer Perceptrons (ANN-MLP), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and a Bayesian Classifier (BC) for this task. The first one outperformed all the remaining classifiers. Recall that we are also the first to introduce the OPF classifier in this field of knowledge. Very good results show the robustness of the proposed system, which can be also integrated with other commonly system (Mud-Logging) in order to improve the last one's efficiency.

Neural Network-Based Approach for Identification of the Harmonic Content of a Nonlinear Load in a Single-Phase System

In this paper an alternative method based on artificial neural networks is presented to determine harmonic components in the load current of a single-phase electric power system with nonlinear loads, whose parameters can vary so much in reason of the loads characteristic behaviors as because of the human intervention. The first six components in the load current are determined using the information contained in the time-varying waveforms. The effectiveness of this method is verified by using it in a single-phase active power filter with selective compensation of the current drained by an AC controller. The proposed method is compared with the fast Fourier transform.

An adaptive system based on artificial neural networks for NPK fluid fertilizer application

The application process of fluid fertilizers through variable rates implemented by classical techniques with feedback and conventional equipments can be inefficient or unstable. This paper proposes an open-loop control system based on artificial neural network of the type multilayer perceptron for the identification and control of the fertilizer flow rate. The network training is made by the algorithm of Levenberg-Marquardt with training data obtained from measurements. Preliminary results indicate a fast, stable and low cost control system for precision fanning. Copyright (C) 2000 IFAC.

An intelligent system to real time rainfall prediction using radar data

This work presents a new approach for rainfall measurements making use of weather radar data for real time application to the radar systems operated by institute of Meteorological Research (IPMET) - UNESP - Bauru - SP-Brazil. Several real time adjustment techniques has been presented being most of them based on surface rain-gauge network. However, some of these methods do not regard the effect of the integration area, time integration and distance rainfall-radar. In this paper, artificial neural networks have been applied for generate a radar reflectivity-rain relationships which regard all effects described above. To evaluate prediction procedure, cross validation was performed using data from IPMET weather Doppler radar and rain-gauge network under the radar umbrella. The preliminary results were acceptable for rainfalls prediction. The small errors observed result from the spatial density and the time resolution of the rain-gauges networks used to calibrate the radar.

A neural network-based preset generation tool for a steel tandem cold mill

This paper traces the development of a software tool, based oil a combination of artificial neural networks (ANN) and a few process equations. aiming to serve as a backup operation instrument in the reference generation for real-time controllers of a steel tandem cold mill By emulating the mathematical model responsible for generating presets under normal operational conditions, the system works as ail option to maintain plant operation in the event of a failure in the processing unit that executes the mathematical model. The system, built from the production data collected over six years of plant operation, steered to the replacement of the former backup operation mode (based oil a lookup table). which degraded both product quality and plant productivity. The study showed that ANN are appropriated tools for the intended purpose and that by this instrument it is possible to achieve nearly the totality of the presets needed by this land of process. The text characterizes the problem, relates the investigated options to solve it. justifies the choice of the ANN approach, describes the methodology and system implementation and, finally, shows and discusses the attained results. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

New approach of induction machine drive using an adaptive digital PID controller with gain planning based on artificial neural networks

The present work introduces a new strategy of induction machines speed adjustment using an adaptive PID (Proportional Integral Derivative) digital controller with gain planning based on the artificial neural networks. This digital controller uses an auxiliary variable to determine the ideal induction machine operating conditions and to establish the closed loop gain of the system. The auxiliary variable value can be estimated from the information stored in a general-purpose artificial neural network based on CMAC (Cerebellar Model Articulation Controller).

An intelligent system to detect drilling problems through drilled cuttings return analysis

Cuttings return analysis is an important tool to detect and prevent problems during the petroleum well drilling process. Several measurements and tools have been developed for drilling problems detection, including mud logging, PWD and downhole torque information. Cuttings flow meters were developed in the past to provide information regarding cuttings return at the shale shakers. Their use, however, significantly impact the operation including rig space issues, interferences in geological analysis besides, additional personel required. This article proposes a non intrusive system to analyze the cuttings concentration at the shale shakers, which can indicate problems during drilling process, such as landslide, the collapse of the well borehole walls. Cuttings images are acquired by a high definition camera installed above the shakers and sent to a computer coupled with a data analysis system which aims the quantification and closure of a cuttings material balance in the well surface system domain. No additional people at the rigsite are required to operate the system. Modern Artificial intelligence techniques are used for pattern recognition and data analysis. Techniques include the Optimum-Path Forest (OPF), Artificial Neural Network using Multilayer Perceptrons (ANN-MLP), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and a Bayesian Classifier (BC). Field test results conducted on offshore floating vessels are presented. Results show the robustness of the proposed system, which can be also integrated with other data to improve the efficiency of drilling problems detection. Copyright 2010, IADC/SPE Drilling Conference and Exhibition.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Expert System using Artificial Neural Networks

The design of a modern aircraft is based on three pillars: theoretical results, experimental test and computational simulations. As a results of this, Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) solvers are widely used in the aeronautical field. These solvers require the correct selection of many parameters in order to obtain successful results. Besides, the computational time spent in the simulation depends on the proper choice of these parameters. In this paper we create an expert system capable of making an accurate prediction of the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) solver. Artificial neural network (ANN) has been used to design the expert system. It is shown that the developed expert system is capable of making an accurate prediction the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a CFD solver.

Metalearner based on Dynamic Neural Network for Strategic Bidding in electricity Markets

The restructuring of electricity markets, conducted to increase the competition in this sector, and decrease the electricity prices, brought with it an enormous increase in the complexity of the considered mechanisms. The electricity market became a complex and unpredictable environment, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. Software tools became, therefore, essential to provide simulation and decision support capabilities, in order to potentiate the involved players’ actions. This paper presents the development of a metalearner, applied to the decision support of electricity markets’ negotiation entities. The proposed metalearner executes a dynamic artificial neural network to create its own output, taking advantage on several learning algorithms implemented in ALBidS, an adaptive learning system that provides decision support to electricity markets’ players. The proposed metalearner considers different weights for each strategy, depending on its individual quality of performance. The results of the proposed method are studied and analyzed in scenarios based on real electricity markets’ data, using MASCEM - a multi-agent electricity market simulator that simulates market players’ operation in the market.

Synergistic control of forearm based on accelerometer data and artificial neural networks

In the present study, we modeled a reaching task as a two-link mechanism. The upper arm and forearm motion trajectories during vertical arm movements were estimated from the measured angular accelerations with dual-axis accelerometers. A data set of reaching synergies from able-bodied individuals was used to train a radial basis function artificial neural network with upper arm/forearm tangential angular accelerations. The trained radial basis function artificial neural network for the specific movements predicted forearm motion from new upper arm trajectories with high correlation (mean, 0.9149-0.941). For all other movements, prediction was low (range, 0.0316-0.8302). Results suggest that the proposed algorithm is successful in generalization over similar motions and subjects. Such networks may be used as a high-level controller that could predict forearm kinematics from voluntary movements of the upper arm. This methodology is suitable for restoring the upper limb functions of individuals with motor disabilities of the forearm, but not of the upper arm. The developed control paradigm is applicable to upper-limb orthotic systems employing functional electrical stimulation. The proposed approach is of great significance particularly for humans with spinal cord injuries in a free-living environment. The implication of a measurement system with dual-axis accelerometers, developed for this study, is further seen in the evaluation of movement during the course of rehabilitation. For this purpose, training-related changes in synergies apparent from movement kinematics during rehabilitation would characterize the extent and the course of recovery. As such, a simple system using this methodology is of particular importance for stroke patients. The results underlie the important issue of upper-limb coordination.

Validation of improved TAMANN neural network for operational satellite-derived rainfall estimation in Africa

Real-time rainfall monitoring in Africa is of great practical importance for operational applications in hydrology and agriculture. Satellite data have been used in this context for many years because of the lack of surface observations. This paper describes an improved artificial neural network algorithm for operational applications. The algorithm combines numerical weather model information with the satellite data. Using this algorithm, daily rainfall estimates were derived for 4 yr of the Ethiopian and Zambian main rainy seasons and were compared with two other algorithms-a multiple linear regression making use of the same information as that of the neural network and a satellite-only method. All algorithms were validated against rain gauge data. Overall, the neural network performs best, but the extent to which it does so depends on the calibration/validation protocol. The advantages of the neural network are most evident when calibration data are numerous and close in space and time to the validation data. This result emphasizes the importance of a real-time calibration system.

Application of neural network to hybrid systems with binary inputs

Boolean input systems are in common used in the electric industry. Power supplies include such systems and the power converter represents these. For instance, in power electronics, the control variable are the switching ON and OFF of components as thyristors or transistors. The purpose of this paper is to use neural network (NN) to control continuous systems with Boolean inputs. This method is based on classification of system variations associated with input configurations. The classical supervised backpropagation algorithm is used to train the networks. The training of the artificial neural network and the control of Boolean input systems are presented. The design procedure of control systems is implemented on a nonlinear system. We apply those results to control an electrical system composed of an induction machine and its power converter.