The Progressivity of Equalization Payments in Federations

We investigate the conditions under which an inequality averse and additively separable welfarist constitution maker would always choose to set up a progressive equalization payments scheme in a federation with local public goods. A progressive equalization payments scheme is defined as a list of per capita net (possibly negative) subsidies - one such net subsidy for every jurisdiction - that are decreasing with respect to jurisdictions per capita wealth. We examine these questions in a setting in which the case for progressivity is a priori the strongest, namely, all citizens have the same utility function for the private and the public goods, inhabitants of a given jurisdiction are all identical, and they are not able to move across jurisdictions. We show that the constitution maker favors a progressive equalization payments scheme for all distributions of wealth and all population sizes if and only if its objective function is additively separable between each jurisdiction’s per capita wealth and number of inhabitants. When interpreted as a mean of order r social welfare function, this condition is shown to be equivalent to additive separability of the individual’s indirect utility function with respect to wealth and the price of the public good. Some implications of this restriction to the case where the individual’s direct utility function is additively separable are also derived.

Estudio de las variaciones espaciales y temporales de la diversidad genética de la trucha común, Salmo trutta, en ríos de la Península Ibérica

Se ha analizado las causas de la distribución espacial de la variabilidad genética del ADN mitocondrial en poblaciones de trucha común de la cuenca del Duero y de los Pirineos Orientales. En total se han analizado de novo 49 localidades, 13 en la cuenca del río Duero y 36 en los principales ríos del Pirineo oriental. Además se analizaron las fluctuaciones temporales en 14 de las localidades del Pirineo Oriental. Estudios previos indican un marcado contraste de los patrones de diversidad entre ambos territorios. En la cuenca del río Duero los análisis confirmaron la presencia de los dos linajes matriarcales descritos previamente, el linaje Atlántico (AT) y el linaje Duero (DU). Los análisis de la varianza molecular (AMOVA) siguiendo una jerarquía hidrográfica sugirieron una alta estructuración de las poblaciones coincidente con los patrones ictiológicos observados en la cuenca. El linaje DU parece haber estado presente permanentemente en la cuenca interior del Duero, mientras que las zonas más próximas a la desembocadura han padecido diversas colonizaciones de trucha del linaje AT, que reflejarían los cambios climáticos ocurridos en el Cuaternario. Se ha detectado una discrepancia en el límite entre ambos grupos definidos por genes nucleares (alozimas) y el ADN mitocondrial. Estas discrepancias pueden ser debidas a un efecto más severo de la deriva genética en el ADN mitocondrial que en los marcadores nucleares. Sin embargo, en este trabajo se han observado evidencias a favor de selección en el ADN mitocondrial del linaje DU que también explicaría estas discrepancias. El análisis más exhaustivo en las cuencas de los Pirineos orientales, permitió detectar nuevos haplotipos mitocondriales de los linajes Adriático (AD) y Mediterráneo (ME). En esta región, los AMOVAs confirmaron que las diferencias entre poblaciones dentro de río son más importantes que las diferencias entre ríos. No obstante se observó un patrón de aislamiento por distancia en toda la zona, reflejo de la estructuración de las poblaciones en la cuenca del río Ebro. Además, aunque los AMOVAs mostraron que el componente temporal de la variación es inferior al espacial, las fluctuaciones temporales en la comparación matriarcal de las poblaciones resultaron estadísticamente significativas. Estas fluctuaciones están asociadas tanto a la deriva genética como a procesos de flujo génico entre poblaciones próximas. Dentro de las cuencas, los componentes de diferenciación entre afluentes son, en general, superiores a los obtenidos dentro de cada afluente, patrón que parece estar extendido en la trucha común. Los estudios a escala microgeográfica en la Noguera Vallferrera y Noguera Cardós (afluentes del Noguera Pallaresa) reprodujeron este patrón de diferenciación. Los tamaños efectivos y la tasa de migración entre ambos ríos fueron similares a los descritos en poblaciones noratlánticas. Los tamaños efectivos de las hembras (Nef), calculados a partir del ADN mitocondrial fueron menos de la mitad del tamaño efectivo total tanto en la Noguera Vallferrera como en el resto de localidades pirenaicas estudiadas. Estos bajos tamaños efectivos de las hembras serían también responsables de las fluctuaciones temporales observadas. Los ejemplares repoblados parecen hibridar poco con los nativos, pero su presencia podría intensificar indirectamente los procesos de deriva genética y complicar la conservación de los patrimonios genéticos nativos. Con la salvedad de la existencia de selección que favorece a los haplotipos del linaje DU, los procesos poblacionales que regulan la distribución de la variabilidad genética en la cuenca del Duero y en los Pirineos Orientales podrían ser parecidos y caracterizados por la existencia de múltiples demes interconectados a lo largo del curso fluvial.

Off-road sampling reveals a different grassland bird community than roadside sampling: implications for survey design and estimates to guide conservation

Grassland bird species continue to decline steeply across North America. Road-based surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) are often used to estimate trends and population sizes and to build species distribution models for grassland birds, although roadside survey counts may introduce bias in estimates because of differences in habitats along roadsides and in off-road surveys. We tested for differences in land cover composition and in the avian community on 21 roadside-based survey routes and in an equal number of adjacent off-road walking routes in the grasslands of southern Alberta, Canada. Off-road routes (n = 225 point counts) had more native grassland and short shrubs and less fallow land and road area than the roadside routes (n = 225 point counts). Consequently, 17 of the 39 bird species differed between the two route types in frequency of occurrence and relative abundance, measured using an indicator species analysis. Six species, including five obligate grassland species, were more prevalent at off-road sites; they included four species listed under the Canadian federal Species At Risk Act or listed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada: Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii), the Chestnut-collared Longspur (Calcarius ornatus), and McCown’s Longspur (Rhynchophanes mccownii). The six species were as much as four times more abundant on off-road sites. Species more prevalent along roadside routes included common species and those typical of farmland and other human-modified habitats, e.g., the European Starling (Sturnus vulgaris), the Black-billed Magpie (Pica hudsonia), and the House Sparrow (Passer domesticus). Differences in avian community composition between roadside and off-road surveys suggest that the use of BBS data when generating population estimates or distribution models may overestimate certain common species and underestimate others of conservation concern. Our results highlight the need to develop appropriate corrections for bias in estimates derived from roadside sampling, and the need to design surveys that sample bird communities across a more representative cross-section of the landscape, both near and far from roads. 

The systolic array genetic algorithm, an example of systolic arrays as a reconfigurable design methodology

We advocate the use of systolic design techniques to create custom hardware for Custom Computing Machines. We have developed a hardware genetic algorithm based on systolic arrays to illustrate the feasibility of the approach. The architecture is independent of the lengths of chromosomes used and can be scaled in size to accommodate different population sizes. An FPGA prototype design can process 16 million genes per second.

On the question of proportionality of the count of observed Scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background: The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-ffected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different - potentially more complex - relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling? Methods: We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator. Results: No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes. Conclusion: Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.

Dynamics and foraging behaviour of adult hornet robberflies, Asilus crabroniformis: implications for conservation strategy

Mark resighting studies of the hornet robberfly, Asilus crabroniformis, were carried out during the flight seasons of 1999 and 2000 on agricultural land on the Chilterns in Oxfordshire, UK. Six patches of land were identified which contained characteristics thought to be attractive to hornet robberflies. One hundred and twenty eight adults were marked in 1999 and 257 in 2000. Marking was carried out on one of the patches, but resighting observations were collected from all six sites. The daily population sizes were estimated using the Jolly-Seber method. The daily population size peaked between 50 and 72 from 23 August until 13 September in 2000. This was very similar to the peak population size of between 50 and 74 estimated for 1999. Adults were found to be capable of living for nearly 5 weeks. The maximum linear distance from the point of marking that any individual moved across the study site was 625 m, but some individuals moved over 400 m in a single day. Unsuitable habitat (suburban gardens and a main road) did not present a barrier to dispersal. Males were more likely than females to loiter in sites peripheral to the breeding site, whilst females seemed to be more tied to the breeding site. Most adults were caught from dung piles, but insects avoided fresh dung and preferred instead dung that was well into the process of drying out. A variety of insect species were taken as prey, including many beetles and flies. The findings of the study are discussed in relation to the management of the landscape to enhance the long-term prospects of the hornet robberfly in the UK, and to achieve the UK Biodiversity Action Plan target for this species.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Supplementary feeding of wild birds indirectly affects the local abundance of arthropod prey

Providing supplementary food for wild birds is a globally popular past-time; almost half of the households in many developed countries participate and billions of US dollars are spent annually. Although the direct influence of this additional resource on bird survivorship and fecundity has been studied, there is little understanding of the wider ecological consequences of this massive perturbation to (what are usually) urban ecosystems. We investigated the possible effects of wild bird feeding on the size and survivorship of colonies of a widespread arthropod prey species of many small passerine birds, the pea aphid [Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris); Hemiptera: Aphididae], in suburban gardens in a large town in southern England. We found significantly fewer aphids and shorter colony survival times in colonies exposed to avian predation compared to protected controls in gardens with a bird feeder but no such differences between exposed and protected colonies in gardens that did not feed birds. Our work therefore suggests that supplementary feeding of wild birds in gardens may indirectly influence population sizes and survivorship of their arthropod prey and highlights the need for further research into the potential effects on other species.

Landscape structure mediates the effects of a stressor on field vole populations

Spatio-temporal landscape heterogeneity has rarely been considered in population-level impact assessments. Here we test whether landscape heterogeneity is important by examining the case of a pesticide applied seasonally to orchards which may affect non-target vole populations, using a validated ecologically realistic and spatially explicit agent-based model. Voles thrive in unmanaged grasslands and untreated orchards but are particularly exposed to applied pesticide treatments during dispersal between optimal habitats. We therefore hypothesised that vole populations do better (1) in landscapes containing more grassland and (2) where areas of grassland are closer to orchards, but (3) do worse if larger areas of orchards are treated with pesticide. To test these hyposeses we made appropriate manipulations to a model landscape occupied by field voles. Pesticide application reduced model population sizes in all three experiments, but populations subsequently wholly or partly recovered. Population depressions were, as predicted, lower in landscapes containing more unmanaged grassland, in landscapes with reduced distance between grassland and orchards, and in landscapes with fewer treated orchards. Population recovery followed a similar pattern except for an unexpected improvement in recovery when the area of treated orchards was increased. Outside the period of pesticide application, orchards increase landscape connectivity and facilitate vole dispersal and so speed population recovery. Overall our results show that accurate prediction of population impact cannot be achieved without taking account of landscape structure. The specifics of landscape structure and habitat connectivity are likely always important in mediating the effects of stressors.

Forest-obligate Sabethes mosquitoes suggest palaeoecological perturbations

The origin of tropical forest diversity has been hotly debated for decades. Although specific mechanisms vary, many such explanations propose some vicariance in the distribution of species during glacial cycles and several have been supported by genetic evidence in Neotropical taxa. However, no consensus exists with regard to the extent or time frame of the vicariance events. Here, we analyse the cytochrome oxidase II mitochondrial gene of 250 Sabethes albiprivus B mosquitoes sampled from western Sao Paulo in Brazil. There was very low population structuring among collection sites (Phi(ST) = 0.03, P = 0.04). Historic demographic analyses and the contemporary geographic distribution of genetic diversity suggest that the populations sampled are not at demographic equilibrium. Three distinct mitochondrial clades were observed in the samples, one of which differed significantly in its geographic distribution relative to the other two within a small sampling area (similar to 70 x 35 km). This fact, supported by the inability of maximum likelihood analyses to achieve adequate fits to simple models for the population demography of the species, suggests a more complex history, possibly involving disjunct forest refugia. This hypothesis is supported by a genetic signal of recent population growth, which is expected if population sizes of this forest-obligate insect increased during the forest expansions that followed glacial periods. Although a time frame cannot be reliably inferred for the vicariance event leading to the three genetic clades, molecular clock estimates place this at similar to 1 Myr before present.

Habitat fragmentation reduces genetic diversity and connectivity among toad populations in the Brazilian Atlantic Coastal Forest

Tropical rainforests are becoming increasingly fragmented and understanding the genetic consequences of fragmentation is crucial for conservation of their flora and fauna. We examined populations of the toad Rhinella ornata, a species endemic to Atlantic Coastal Forest in Brazil, and compared genetic diversity among small and medium forest fragments that were either isolated or connected to large forest areas by corridors. Genetic differentiation, as measured by F(ST), was not related to geographic distance among study sites and the size of the fragments did not significantly alter patterns of genetic connectivity. However, population genetic diversity was positively related to fragment size, thus haplotype diversity was lowest in the smallest fragments, likely due to decreases in population sizes. Spatial analyses of genetic discontinuities among groups of populations showed a higher proportion of barriers to gene flow among small and medium fragments than between populations in continuous forest. Our results underscore that even species with relatively high dispersal capacities may, over time, suffer the negative genetic effects of fragmentation, possibly leading to reduced fitness of population and cases of localized extinction. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The genetic effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes over a tropical latitudinal gradient: diversification of an Atlantic Forest passerine

The increase in biodiversity from high to low latitudes is a widely recognized biogeographical pattern. According to the latitudinal gradient hypothesis (LGH), this pattern was shaped by differential effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes across a latitudinal gradient. Here, we evaluate the effects of climatic changes across a tropical latitudinal gradient and its implications to diversification of an Atlantic Forest (AF) endemic passerine. We studied the intraspecific diversification and historical demography of Sclerurus scansor, based on mitochondrial (ND2, ND3 and cytb) and nuclear (FIB7) gene sequences. Phylogenetic analyses recovered three well-supported clades associated with distinct latitudinal zones. Coalescent-based methods were applied to estimate divergence times and changes in effective population sizes. Estimates of divergence times indicate that intraspecific diversification took place during Middle-Late Pleistocene. Distinct demographic scenarios were identified, with the southern lineage exhibiting a clear signature of demographic expansion, while the central one remained more stable. The northern lineage, contrasting with LGH predictions, exhibited a clear sign of a recent bottleneck. Our results suggest that different AF regions reacted distinctly, even in opposite ways, under the same climatic period, producing simultaneously favourable scenarios for isolation and contact among populations.

Distinctively variable sequence-based nuclear DNA markers for multilocus phylogeography of the soybean- and rice-infecting fungal pathogen Rhizoctonia solani AG-1 IA

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

How well will Brazil's system of atlantic forest reserves maintain viable bird populations?

It is crucial for biodiversity conservation that protected areas are large and effective enough to support viable populations of their original species. We used a point count distance sampling method to estimate population sizes of a range of bird species in three Atlantic forest protected areas of size 5600, 22,500, and 46,050 ha. Population sizes were generally related to reserve area, although in the mid-sized reserve, there were many rare species reflecting a high degree of habitat heterogeneity. The proportions of forest species having estimated populations > 500 ranged from 55% of 210 species in the largest reserve to just 25% of 140 species in the smallest reserve. All forest species in the largest reserves had expected populations > 100, but in the small reserve, 28% (38 species) had populations < 100 individuals. Atlantic forest endemics were no more or less likely to have small populations than widespread species. There are 79 reserves (> 1000 ha) in the Atlantic forest lowlands. However, all but three reserves in the north of the region (Espirito Santo and states north) are smaller than 10,000 ha, and we predict serious levels of local extinction from these reserves. Habitat heterogeneity within reserves may promote species richness within them, but it may also be important in determining species loss over time by suppressing populations of individual species. We suggest that most reserves in the region are so small that homogeneity in the habitat/altitude within them is beneficial for maintenance of their (comparatively small) original species compliment. A lack of protection in the north, continued detrimental human activity inside reserves, and our poor knowledge of how well the reserve system protects individual taxa, are crucial considerations in biodiversity management in the region.

Parrot populations and habitat use in and around two lowland Atlantic forest reserves, Brazil

We estimated population sizes of parrots in a large (Sooretama/Linhares) and a small (Porto Seguro) lowland Atlantic forest reserve, and examined their habitat associations within the reserves, and their use of forest fragments. In Sooretama, most species had estimated populations between 1000 and 20,000 individuals, but in the smaller reserve population densities were low and all but one species had population estimates < 500. Two Amazons, including the 'Endangered' Amazona rhodocorytha, were strongly linked to primary forests whereas the 'Vulnerable' Pyrrhura cruentata was associated with non-pristine forest. There was considerable movement of parrots between the Sooretama reserve and the surrounding country with Amazona species tending to fly into the reserve during the mornings, and the macaw Propyrrhura maracana flying out. Other species, notably P. cruentata and P. leucotis, were never recorded away from the reserve. Most parrot populations in the region are likely to be small, and the substantial populations around Sooretama make this reserve a parrot stronghold. It is crucial that fire, illegal logging and parrot capture are adequately controlled within Sooretama, and there is a strong argument for extending conservation management efforts to areas immediately outside the reserve. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.