Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

Asymmetries in the capacity-inflation trade-off

This paper analyzes the joint dynamics of two key macroeconomic variables for the conduct of monetary policy: inflation and the aggregate capacity utilization rate. An econometric procedure useful for estimating dynamic rational expectation models with unobserved components is developed and applied in this context. The method combines the flexibility of the unobserved components approach, based on the Kalman recursion, with the power of the general method of moments estimation procedure. A 'hyb id' Phillips curve relating inflation to the capacity utilization gap and incorporating forward and backward looking components is estimated. The results show that such a relationship in non-linear: the slope of the Phillips curve depends significantly on the magnitude of the capacity gap. These findings provide support for studying the implications of asymmetricmonetary policy rules.

Pollution and pollutant transport in the geosphere - An introduction to the symposium

Environmental research in earth sciences is focused on the geosphere, i.e. (1) waters and sediments of rivers, lakes and oceans, and (2) soils and underlying shallow rock formations,both water-unsaturated and -saturated. The subsurface is studied down to greater depths at sites where waste repositories or tunnels are planned and mining activities exist. In recent years, earth scientists have become more and more involved in pollution problems related to their classical field of interest, e.g. groundwater, ore deposits, or petroleum and non-metal natural deposits (gravel, clay, cement precursors). Major pollutants include chemical substances, radioactive isotopes and microorganisms. Mechanisms which govern the transport of pollutants are of physical, chemical (dissolution, precipitation, adsorption), or microbiological (transformation) nature. Land-use planning must reflect a sustainable development and sound scientific criteria. Today's environmental pollution requires working teams with an interdisciplinary background in earth sciences, hydrology, chemistry, biology, physics as well as engineering. This symposium brought together for the first time in Switzerland earth and soil scientists, physicists and chemists, to present and discuss environmental issues concerning the geosphere.

Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kongs Currency Board

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

Moral Behaviour, Altruism and Environmental Policy

Free‐riding is often associated with self‐interested behaviour. However if there is a global mixed pollutant, free‐riding will arise if individuals calculate that their emissions are negligible relative to the total, so total emissions and hence any damage that they and others suffer will be unaffected by whatever consumption choice they make. In this context consumer behaviour and the optimal environmental tax are independent of the degree of altruism. For behaviour to change, individuals need to make their decisions in a different way. We propose a new theory of moral behaviour whereby individuals recognise that they will be worse off by not acting in their own self‐interest, and balance this cost off against the hypothetical moral value of adopting a Kantian form of behaviour, that is by calculating the consequences of their action by asking what would happen if everyone else acted in the same way as they did. We show that: (a) if individuals behave this way, then altruism matters and the greater the degree of altruism the more individuals cut back their consumption of a ’dirty’ good; (b) nevertheless the optimal environmental tax is exactly the same as that emerging from classical analysis where individuals act in self‐interested fashion.

The pollutant diethylhexyl phthalate regulates hepatic energy metabolism via species-specific PPARalpha-dependent mechanisms.

Background: The modulation of energetic homeostasis by pollutants has recently emerged as a potential contributor to the onset of metabolic disorders. Diethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) is a widely used industrial plasticizer to which humans are widely exposed. Phthalates can activate the three peroxisome proliferatoractivated receptor (PPAR) isotypes on cellular models and induce peroxisome proliferation in rodents.Objectives: In this study, we aimed to evaluate the systemic and metabolic consequences of DEHP exposure that have remained so far unexplored and to characterize the underlying molecular mechanisms of action.Methods: As a proof of concept and mechanism, genetically engineered mouse models of PPARs were exposed to high doses of DEHP, followed by metabolic and molecular analyses.Results: DEHP-treated mice were protected from diet-induced obesity via PPARalpha-dependent activation of hepatic fatty acid catabolism, whereas the activity of neither PPARbeta nor PPARgamma was affected. However, the lean phenotype observed in response to DEHP in wild-type mice was surprisingly abolished in PPARalpha-humanized mice. These species differences are associated with a different pattern of coregulator recruitment.Conclusion: These results demonstrate that DEHP exerts species-specific metabolic actions that rely to a large extent on PPARalpha signaling and highlight the metabolic importance of the species-specific activation of PPARalpha by xenobiotic compounds. Editor's SummaryDiethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) is an industrial plasticizer used in cosmetics, medical devices, food packaging, and other applications. Evidence that DEHP metabolites can activate peroxisome proliferatoractivated receptors (PPARs) involved in fatty acid oxidation (PPARalpha and PPARbeta) and adiposite function and insulin resistance (PPARgamma) has raised concerns about potential effects of DEHP on metabolic homeostasis. In rodents, PPARalpha activation also induces hepatic peroxisome proliferation, but this response to PPARalpha activation is not observed in humans. Feige et al. (p. 234) evaluated systemic and metabolic consequences of high-dose oral DEHP in combination with a high-fat diet in wild-type mice and genetically engineered mouse PPAR models. The authors report that mice exposed to DEHP gained less weight than controls, without modifying their feeding behavior; they also exhibited lower triglyceride levels, smaller adipocytes, and improved glucose tolerance compared with controls. These effects, which were observed in mice fed both high-fat and standard diets, appeared to be mediated by PPARalpha-dependent activation of hepatic fatty acid catabolism without apparent involvement of PPARbeta or PPARgamma. However, mouse models that expressed human (versus mouse) PPARalpha tended to gain more weight on a high-fat diet than their DHEP-unexposed counterparts. The authors conclude that findings support species-specific metabolic effects of DEHP mediated by PPARalpha activation.

Host Specificity of Amblyomma cajennense (Fabricius, 1787) (Acari: Ixodidae) with Comments on the Drop-off Rhythm

The parasitic specificity of larval, nymph and adult Amblyomma cajennense on six different host species: Oryctolagus cuniculus, Rattus norvegicus, Gallus gallus domesticus, Anas platyrhynchus, Coturnix coturnix and Streptopelia decorata is described. In terms of the numbers of larvae and nymphs recovered, O. cuniculus was the best host species. The modal day for drop-off of larvae and nymphs was day three for the mammal hosts, but variable in the birds. We conclude that adult A. cajennense have a strong degree of specificity due to the fact that the tick failed to complete its life cycle on any of the evaluated hosts. The immature stages, on the other hand, showed a low level of specificity, most especially in the larval stage, indicating the existence of secondary hosts which probably serve as dispersers in the wild. The results also indicated a variable drop-off rhythm for larvae and nymphs in two periods, diurnal (6-18 hr) and nocturnal (18-6 hr), which differed depending upon the host.

Off-label utilization of antipsychotics

Résumé Ce travail s'inscrit dans un programme de recherche centré sur la pharmacovigilance en psychiatrie. Buts de l'étude Les nouveaux antipsychotiques atypiques sont prescrits avec beaucoup de succès, parce qu'ils présentent une sécurité dans leur emploi bien supérieure à celle des antipsychotiques classiques. Cette situation a conduit à une large prescription «off-label» (hors indication admise). Le but de ce travail a été d'étudier la pratique en matière de prescription des psychiatres hospitaliers en ce qui concerne les antipsychotiques en comparant des patients traités pour des psychoses ou d'autres indications officielles aux patients recevant un traitement antipsychotique «off-label». Méthode Dans le cadre d'un programme de pharmacovigilance - pharmacoépidemiologie, tous les médicaments prescrits à 5 jours de référence (entre 1999 et 2001) à l'hôpital psychiatrique universitaire de Lausanne (98 lits) ont été enregistrés, avec des données sur l'âge, le sexe et le diagnostic des patients. Les prescriptions de 202 patients ont été évaluées. Les patients ont été classés dans 3 groupes diagnostiques : (1) patient présentant des troubles psychotiques, (2) patient présentant des épisodes maniaques et des épisodes dépressifs avec des symptômes psychotiques, et (3) patient présentant d'autres troubles. Les groupes (1) et (2) forment une classe de patients recevant un antipsychotique pour une indication officielle, et les prescriptions dans le groupe (3) ont été considérées comme «off-label». Résultats principaux Moins de patients psychotiques ont reçu un antidépresseur (p<0.05) ou des hypnotiques non-benzodiazepine (p<0.001) comparés aux patients des deux autres groupes. Les patients présentant des troubles affectifs recevaient seulement exceptionnellement une combinaison d'un antipsychotique atypique et conventionnel, tandis qu'un nombre inférieur de patients avec des indications « off-label » ont reçu moins .souvent des antipsychotiques atypiques que ceux des deux groupes de comparaison (p<0.05). L'analyse statistique (stepwise logistic regression) a révélé que les patients présentant des troubles psychotiques avaient un risque plus élevé de recevoir un médicament antipsychotique d'une dose moyenne ou élevée, (p<0.001) en comparaison aux deux autres groupes. Conclusion Les nouveaux médicaments antipsychotiques semblent être prescrits avec moins d'hésitation principalement pour des indications admises. Les médecins prescrivent de nouveaux médicaments « off-label » seulement après avoir acquis une certaine expérience dans le domaine des indications approuvées, et ils étaient plus prudents en ce qui concerne la dose en traitant sur la base «off-label». Abstract Objective The new brands of atypical antipsychotics are very successfully prescribed because of their enhanced safety profiles and their larger pharmacological profile in comparison to the conventional antipsychotic. This has led to broad off-label utilisation. The aim of the present survey was to study the prescription practice of hospital psychiatrists with regard to antipsychotic drugs, comparing patients treated for psychoses or other registered indications to patients receiving an off-label antipsychotic treatment. Method As part of a pharmacovigilance/pharmacoepidemiology program, all drugs given on 5 reference days (1999 - 2001) in the 98-bed psychiatric hospital of the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, were recorded along with age, sex and diagnosis. The prescriptions of 202 patients were assessed. Patients were classified in 3 diagnostic groups: (1) patient with psychotic disorders, (2) patients with manic episodes and depressive episodes with psychotic symptoms, and (3) patients with other disorders. Group (1) and (2) formed the class of patients receiving an antipsychotic for a registered indication, and the prescriptions in group (3) were considered as off-label. Main results A lesser number of psychotic patients received antidepressant (p<0.05) and nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics (p<0.001) compared to the patients of the other two groups. The patients with affective disorders received only exceptionally a combination of an atypical and a conventional antipsychotic, whereas a lesser number of patients with off-label indications received less often atypical antipsychotics than those of the two comparison groups (p<0.05). Stepwise logistic regression revealed that patients with psychotic disorder were at higher risk of receiving an antipsychotic medication in medium or high dose (p<0.001), in comparison to the two other groups. Conclusions The new antipsychotic drugs seem to be prescribed with less hesitation mainly for approved indications. Physicians prescribe new drugs on off-label application only after having gained some experience in the field of the approved indications, and were more cautious with regard to dose when treating on an off-label basis.

An investigation on the pay-off to generic competences for core employees in Catalan manufacturing firms

The aim of this paper is to measure the returns to human capital. We use a unique data set consisting of matched employer-employee information. Data on individuals' human capital include a set of 26 competences that capture the utilization of workers' skills in a very detailed way. Thus, we can expand the concept of human capital and discuss the type of skills that are more productive in the workplace and, hence, generate a higher payoff for the workers. The rich information on firm's and workplace characteristics allows us to introduce a broad range of controls and to improve previous research in this field. This paper gives evidence that the returns to generic competences differ depending on the position of the worker in the firm. Only numeracy skills are reward independent of the occupational status of the worker. The level of technology used by the firm in the production process does not directly increase workers’ pay, but it influences the pay-off to some of the competences. JEL Classification: J24, J31

Pseudempleurosoma gibsoni n. sp., a new Ancyrocephalid Monogenean from Paralonchurus brasiliensis (Sciaenidae) from off the Southeastern Coast of Brazil

Pseudempleurosoma gibsoni n. sp. (Monogenea: Ancyrocephalidae) is described from the oesophagus of Paralonchurus brasiliensis (Steindachner) from off the coast of Brazil. The type-species of Pseudempleurosoma Yamaguti, 1965, P. carangis Yamaguti, 1965, is redescribed and the diagnosis of the genus is amended. Metadiplectanotrema Gerasev et al. 1987 is considered synonym of Pseudempleurosoma. This genus now contains four species, including P. carangis, P. caranxi Gerasev et al., 1987 n. comb., P. myripristi Gerasev et al., 1987 n. comb. and the one new species.