Confidence and Competence in Communication

This paper studies information transmission between an uninformed decision maker (receiver) and an informed player (sender) who have asymmetric beliefs ("con fidence") on the sender s ability ("competence") to observe the state of nature. We fi nd that even when the material payoffs of are perfectly aligned, the sender s over- and underconfi dence on his information give rise to information loss in communication, although they do not by themselves completely eliminate information transmission in equilibrium. However, an underconfi dent sender may prefer no communication to informative communication. We also show that when the sender is biased, overconfi dence can lead to more information transmission and welfare improvement.

Self-Confidence, Overconfidence and Prenatal Testosterone Exposure: Evidence from the Lab

This paper examines whether the degree of confidence and overconfidence in one's ability is determined biologically. In articular, we study whether foetal testosterone exposure correlates with an incentive-compatible measure of confidence within an experimental setting. We find that men (rather than women) who were exposed to high testosterone levels in their mother's womb are less likely to overestimate their actual performance, which in turn helps them to gain higher monetary rewards. Men exposed to low prenatal testosterone levels, instead, set unrealistically high expectations which results in self-defeating behaviour. These results from the lab are able to reconcile hitherto disconnected evidence from the field, by providing a link between traders'overconfidence bias, long-term financial returns and prenatal testosterone exposure.

Predictors of early hospital readmission after acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for early mortality after pulmonary embolism (PE) are widely known. However, it is uncertain which factors are associated with early readmission after PE. We sought to identify predictors of readmission after an admission for PE. METHODS: We studied 14 426 patient discharges with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania from January 1, 2000, to November 30, 2002. The outcome was readmission within 30 days of presentation for PE. We used a discrete proportional odds model to study the association between time to readmission and patient factors (age, sex, race, insurance, discharge status, and severity of illness), thrombolysis, and hospital characteristics (region, teaching status, and number of beds). RESULTS: Overall, 2064 patient discharges (14.3%) resulted in a readmission within 30 days of presentation for PE. The most common reasons for readmission were venous thromboembolism (21.9%), cancer (10.8%), pneumonia (5.2%), and bleeding (5.0%). In multivariable analysis, African American race (odds ratio [OR], 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.38), Medicaid insurance (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.31-1.81), discharge home with supplemental care (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.27-1.54), leaving the hospital against medical advice (OR, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.80-4.48), and severity of illness were independently associated with readmission; readmission also varied by hospital region. CONCLUSIONS: Early readmission after PE is common. African American race, Medicaid insurance, severity of illness, discharge status, and hospital region are significantly associated with readmission. The high readmission rates for venous thromboembolism and bleeding suggest that readmission may be linked to suboptimal quality of care in the management of PE.

Morphological and virological studies in six autopsies of children with adenovirus pneumonia

Pulmonary lesions compatible with adenovirus infection were detected by gross and microscopic examination of autopsy tissues children aged from 5 to 34 months. Hepatic lesions indicative of systemic infection were also found in four of the chisldren. The viral etiology was confirmed in three cases by in-situ hibridization, electro-microscopy and immunofluorescence performed in parafin-embedded tissues, and in one case by cell culture isolation of adenovirus type 2 from nasopharyngeal exudate. Routine testing by methods additional to conventional light microscopy would probably have revealed a larger number of adenovirus infections among the 1.103 autopsy records analyzed in this study.

Etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized children based on WHO clinical guidelines

Rapport de synthèse: Enjeux de la recherche : La pneumonie communautaire chez l'enfant est un problème de santé publique considérable. Elle est responsable de 2 millions de mort par année, 70% survenant dans les pays en voie de développement. Sous nos latitudes son incidence est de 40/1000 enfants par année, ce qui représente une morbidité importante. Deux difficultés surviennent lorsqu'on cherche à diagnostiquer une pneumonie. La première est de distinguer une pneumonie bactérienne d'une virale, particulièrement chez les petits enfants où les infections virales des voies respiratoires inférieures sont fréquentes. L'OMS a définit la pneumonie selon des critères exclusivement cliniques et une étude effectuée à Lausanne en 2000 a montré que ces critères peuvent être utilisés dans nos contrées. La seconde difficulté est de définir l'agent causal de la pneumonie, ceci pour plusieurs raisons : L'aspiration endotrachéale, seul examen fiable, ne peut être obtenue de routine chez l'enfant vu son caractère invasif, la culture des secrétions nasopharyngées reflète la flore physiologique de la sphère ORL et une bactériémie n'est présente que dans moins de 10% des pneumonies. L'étiologie de la pneumonie reste souvent inconnue, et de ce fait plusieurs enfants reçoivent des antibiotiques pour une infection non bactérienne ce qui contribue au développement de résistances. L'objectif de cette étude était d'effectuer une recherche extensive de l'agent causal de la pneumonie et de déterminer quels facteurs pourraient aider le clinicien à différencier une pneumonie virale de bactérienne, en corrélant l'étiologie avec la sévérité clinique et les marqueurs de l'inflammation. Contexte de la recherche : II s'agissait d'une étude prospective, multicentrique, incluant les enfants âgés de 2 mois à 5 ans hospitalisés pour une pneumonie, selon les critères de l'OMS, dans le service de pédiatrie de Lausanne et Genève entre mars 2003 et Décembre 2005, avant l'implantation de la vaccination antipneumococcique de routine. Chaque enfant, en plus des examens usuels, bénéficiait d'une recherche étiologique extensive : Culture virale et bactérienne, PCR (Mycoplasma Pneumoniae, Chlamydia Pneumoniae, Virus Influenza A et B, RSV A et B, Rhinovirus, Parainfluenza 1-3, enterovirus, human metapneumovirus, coronavirus OC43, E229 ; et NL 63) et détection d'AG viraux dans les sécrétions nasopharyngées ; sérologies virales et bactériennes à l'entrée et 3 semaines après la sortie (AG Influenza A et B, Parainfluenza 1,2 et 3, RSV, Adenovirus, M.Pneumoniae et S.Pneumoniae). Conclusions : Un agent pathogène a été découvert chez 86% des 99 patients retenus confirmant le fait que plus la recherche étiologique est étendue plus le pourcentage d'agent causal trouvé est élevé. Une infection bactérienne a été découverte chez 53% des patients dont 45% avaient une infection à S. Pneumoniae confirmant l'importance d'une vaccination antipneumococcique de routine. La déshydratation et les marqueurs de l'inflammation tels que la C-Reactive Protein et la Procalcitonine étaient significativement plus élevés dans les pneumonies bactériennes. Aucune corrélation n'a été trouvée entre le degré de sévérité de la pneumonie et l'étiologie. L'étude a confirmé la haute prévalence d'infections virales (67%) et de co-infection (33%) dans la pneumonie de l'enfant sans que l'on connaisse le rôle réel du virus dans la pathogenèse de la pneumonie. Perspectives : d'autres études à la suite de celle-ci devraient être effectuées en incluant les patients ambulatoires afin de déterminer, avec un collectif plus large de patient, une éventuelle corrélation entre sévérité clinique et étiologie. Abstract : Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a major cause of death in developing countries and of morbidity in developed countries. The objective of the study was to define the causative agents among children hospitalized for CAP defined by WHO guidelines and to correlate etiology with clinical severity and surrogate markers. Investigations included an extensive etiological workup. A potential causative agent was detected in 86% of the 99 enrolled patients, with evidence of bacterial (53%), viral (67%), and mixed (33%) infections. Streptococcus pneumoniae was accounted for in 46% of CAP. Dehydration was the only clinical sign associated with bacterial pneumonia. CRP and PCT were significantly higher in bacterial infections. Increasing the number of diagnostic tests identifies potential causes of CAP in up to 86% of children, indicating a high prevalence of viruses and frequent co-infections. The high proportion of pneumococcal infections re-emphasizes the importance of pneumococcal immunization.

Imaging of cavitary necrosis in complicated childhood pneumonia.

The aim of this study was to illustrate the chest radiographs (CR) and CT imaging features and sequential findings of cavitary necrosis in complicated childhood pneumonia. Among 30 children admitted in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit for persistent or progressive pneumonia, respiratory distress or sepsis despite adequate antibiotic therapy, a study group of 9 children (5 girls and 4 boys; mean age 4 years) who had the radiographic features and CT criteria for cavitary necrosis complicated pneumonia was identified. The pathogens identified were Streptococcus pneumoniae( n=4), Aspergillus( n=2), Legionella( n=1), and Staphylococcus aureus( n=1). Sequential CR and CT scans were retrospectively reviewed. Follow-up CR and CT were evaluated for persistent abnormalities. Chest radiographs showed consolidations in 8 of the 9 patients. On CT examination, cavitary necrosis was localized to 1 lobe in 2 patients and 7 patients showed multilobar or bilateral areas of cavitary necrosis. In 3 patients of 9, the cavitary necrosis was initially shown on CT and visualization by CR was delayed by a time span varying from 5 to 9 days. In all patients with cavities, a mean number of five cavities were seen on antero-posterior CR, contrasting with the multiple cavities seen on CT. Parapneumonic effusions were shown by CR in 3 patients and in 5 patients by CT. Bronchopleural fistulae were demonstrated by CT alone ( n=3). No purulent pericarditis was demonstrated. The CT scan displayed persistent residual pneumatoceles of the left lower lobe in 2 patients. Computed tomography is able to define a more specific pattern of abnormalities than conventional CR in children with necrotizing pneumonia and allows an earlier diagnosis of this rapidly progressing condition. Lung necrosis and cavitation may also be associated with Aspergillus or Legionella pneumonia in the pediatric population.

Nasopharyngeal carriage of individual Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes during pediatric radiologically confirmed community acquired pneumonia following PCV7 introduction in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a serious cause of morbidity among children in developed countries. The real impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal pneumonia is difficult to assess accurately. METHODS: Children aged ≤16 years with clinical and radiological pneumonia were enrolled in a multicenter prospective study. Children aged ≤16 years admitted for a minor elective surgery was recruited as controls. Nasopharyngeal samples for PCR serotyping of S. pneumoniae were obtained in both groups. Informations on age, gender, PCV7 vaccination status, day care/school attendance, siblings, tobacco exposure were collected. RESULTS: In children with CAP (n=236), 54% of the nasopharyngeal swabs were PCR-positive for S. pneumoniae compared to 32% in controls (n=105) (p=0.003). Serotype 19A was the most common pneumococcal serotype carried in children with CAP (13%) and in controls (15%). Most common serotypes were non-vaccine types (39.4% for CAP and 47.1% for controls) and serotypes included only in PCV13 (32.3% for CAP and 23.5% for controls). There was no significant difference in vaccine serotype distribution between the two groups. In fully vaccinated children with CAP, the proportion of serotypes carried only in PCV13 was higher (51.4%) than in partially vaccinated or non vaccinated children (27.6% and 28.6% respectively, p=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Two to 4 years following introduction of PCV7, predominant S. pneumoniae serotypes carried in children with CAP were non PCV7 serotypes, and the 6 new serotypes included in PCV13 accounted for 51.4% of carried serotypes in fully vaccinated children.

Improving Patient Safety - Building Public Confidence (PDF 440 KB)

A response by the Department of Health, Social Services & Public Safety to the recommendations contained in the Shipman Inquiry Reports 3, 4 & 5.

Cope with Confidence - survey of heart failure patient experience

Your views matter - if you have heart failure, or are close to someone who does, please complete our survey by 31st�March 2012 (link below).Heart failure is a common condition affecting at least 20,000 people in Northern Ireland. The aim of this survey is to find out how to increase the confidence of people living with heart failure so they have a better quality of life, and can work in partnership with health care professionals and support services in managing their condition. The findings of this survey will be used to help improve services.Your views are important and we would encourage you to complete the survey. It should only take around 20 minutes. Participation is confidential which means that your identity will not be revealed. You are asked for your age, the first part of you post code and which GP practice you are registered with. This is so the results for different age groups and for different large geographical areas (i.e. Health & Social Care Trust areas) can be compared.� Results will not be examined by individual GP practice.Participation is voluntary i.e. taking part in the study is your decision. Whether you participate or not will have no effect on the medical care you receive from your GP practice or elsewhere. None of the health care professionals involved in your care will know if you participate or not: neither will they see your individual response.Whether you are an adult or a young person living with heart failure, or a partner, care giver, son, daughter, relative or friend, we would like you to share your experiences. This will help us to develop existing services in Northern Ireland to better meet your needs.You can share your experience by completing the survey online, clicking this�link:�http://sg.sensemaker-suite.com/CopewithconfidenceThe survey should be completed by 31st�March 2012.�If you have any queries about the survey, or you would like to request a paper copy to complete, please contact the Public Health Agency (028) 9032 1313 and ask for extension 2487 or email us at copewithconfidence@hscni.netPlease note that the survey team can only assist in survey related questions and will not able to answer questions about heart failure, its treatment or services provided.The Northern Ireland Chest Heart & Stroke Association and The British Heart Foundation can provide information about support available to people with heart failure. Their contact details are:.�Northern Ireland Chest Heart and Stroke Association:� www.nichsa.com, telephone (028) 9032 0184.�British Heart Foundation:� www.bhf.org.uk, telephone 0300 330 3311

Early-onset ventilator-associated pneumonia incidence in intensive care units: a surveillance-based study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) within the first 48 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) stay has been poorly investigated. The objective was to estimate early-onset VAP occurrence in ICUs within 48 hours after admission. METHODS: We analyzed data from prospective surveillance between 01/01/2001 and 31/12/2009 in 11 ICUs of Lyon hospitals (France). The inclusion criteria were: first ICU admission, not hospitalized before admission, invasive mechanical ventilation during first ICU day, free of antibiotics at admission, and ICU stay >=48 hours. VAP was defined according to a national protocol. Its incidence was the number of events per 1,000 invasive mechanical ventilation-days. The Poisson regression model was fitted from day 2 (D2) to D8 to incident VAP to estimate the expected VAP incidence from D0 to D1 of ICU stay. RESULTS: Totally, 367 (10.8%) of 3,387 patients in 45,760 patient-days developed VAP within the first 9 days. The predicted cumulative VAP incidence at D0 and D1 was 5.3 (2.6-9.8) and 8.3 (6.1-11.1), respectively. The predicted cumulative VAP incidence was 23.0 (20.8-25.3) at D8. The proportion of missed VAP within 48 hours from admission was 11% (9%-17%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates underestimation of early-onset VAP incidence in ICUs, if only VAP occurring [greater than or equal to]48 hours is considered to be hospital-acquired. Clinicians should be encouraged to develop a strategy for early detection after ICU admission.

Cytokine levels in bronchoalveolar lavage and serum in 3 patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1)v severe pneumonia.

Introduction: Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1)v pneumonia has led to a notable increase of admissions to intensive care units. A cytokine-mediated inflammatory response has been well documented in pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. However, few studies have focused on the role of these inflammatory mediators in infections caused by the Influenza A (H1N1)v. In this study, we assess the inflammatory response mediated by cytokines at the local and systemic levels in three cases of severe pneumonia caused by Influenza A (H1N1) virus. Methodology: Serum and bronchoalveolar lavage samples were obtained from three mechanically ventilated patients diagnosed with Influenza A (H1N1) virus pneumonia by bronchoscopic bronchoalveolar lavage. Levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6), interleukin 8 (IL-8), tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) and interleukin 1 beta (IL-1ß) were meassured in these samples by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results: High levels of C Reactive Protein, Procalcitonin below 1 ng/ml and absence of leukocytosis were common findings in all patients. TNF α and IL-1ß were not detected in the serum. IL-6 levels in serum were (94, pg/ml, 77 pg/ml and 84 pg/ml) respectively in the three patients, while IL-8 levels were (30,2 pg/ml, 128 pg/ml and 40,5 pg/ml). In the BAL samples, only one of the analysed cytokines, IL-1ß was present at detectable levels in two patients (21 pg/ml and 11 pg/ml respectively). Conclusions: Our results support previous findings which suggest that high levels of IL-6 and IL-8 in serum somehow participate in the inflammatory response in severe cases of pandemic influenza pneumonia.

Necrotising pneumonia due to influenza A (H1N1) and community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus clone USA300: successful management of the first documented paediatric case.

Necrotising pneumonia in young, previously healthy patients due to Panton–Valentine leucocidin (PVL) producing Staphylococcus aureus has been increasingly recognised. PVL pneumonia is often associated with influenza co-infection and high mortality. This case report describes the successful management of the first documented paediatric case of a previous healthy adolescent who developed necrotising pneumonia due to community-acquired methicillin-resistant (CA-MRSA) clone USA300 with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) co-infection, and highlights the importance of early recognition and initiation of appropriate therapy for this potentially fatal co-infection. PCR remains the gold standard to diagnose pandemic H1N1 since it may not be detected by rapid antigen tests. Bacterial necrotising pneumonia should be suspected in those presenting with worsening flu-like symptoms and clinical and/or radiological evidence of PVL infection (multifocal infiltrates, effusion and cavitation). These patients may benefit from the administration of toxin neutralising agents. In light of the current H1N1 pandemic, healthcare professionals will be increasingly confronted with this clinical scenario.