High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill

The sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the climate, anthropogenic climate change, and seasonal predictive skill of the ECMWF model has been studied as part of Project Athena—an international collaboration formed to test the hypothesis that substantial progress in simulating and predicting climate can be achieved if mesoscale and subsynoptic atmospheric phenomena are more realistically represented in climate models. In this study the experiments carried out with the ECMWF model (atmosphere only) are described in detail. Here, the focus is on the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. The resolutions considered in Project Athena for the ECMWF model are T159 (126 km), T511 (39 km), T1279 (16 km), and T2047 (10 km). It was found that increasing horizontal resolution improves the tropical precipitation, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the frequency of occurrence of Euro-Atlantic blocking, and the representation of extratropical cyclones in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. All of these improvements come from the increase in resolution from T159 to T511 with relatively small changes for further resolution increases to T1279 and T2047, although it should be noted that results from this very highest resolution are from a previously untested model version. Problems in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation remain unchanged for all resolutions tested. There is some evidence that increasing horizontal resolution to T1279 leads to moderate increases in seasonal forecast skill during boreal winter in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Sensitivity experiments are discussed, which helps to foster a better understanding of some of the resolution dependence found for the ECMWF model in Project Athena

Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

Assimilation of Geosat Altimeter Data for the Agulhas Current Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Quasigeostrophic Model

The ring-shedding process in the Agulhas Current is studied using the ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate geosat altimeter data into a two-layer quasigeostrophic ocean model. The properties of the ensemble Kalman filter are further explored with focus on the analysis scheme and the use of gridded data. The Geosat data consist of 10 fields of gridded sea-surface height anomalies separated 10 days apart that are added to a climatic mean field. This corresponds to a huge number of data values, and a data reduction scheme must be applied to increase the efficiency of the analysis procedure. Further, it is illustrated how one can resolve the rank problem occurring when a too large dataset or a small ensemble is used.

Mid-holocene and last glacial maximum climate simulations with the IPSL model-part I: comparing IPSLCM5A to IPSLCM4

The climates of the mid-Holocene (MH), 6,000 years ago, and of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21,000 years ago, have extensively been simulated, in particular in the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparion Project. These periods are well documented by paleo-records, which can be used for evaluating model results for climates different from the present one. Here, we present new simulations of the MH and the LGM climates obtained with the IPSL_CM5A model and compare them to our previous results obtained with the IPSL_CM4 model. Compared to IPSL_CM4, IPSL_CM5A includes two new features: the interactive representation of the plant phenology and marine biogeochemistry. But one of the most important differences between these models is the latitudinal resolution and vertical domain of their atmospheric component, which have been improved in IPSL_CM5A and results in a better representation of the mid-latitude jet-streams. The Asian monsoon’s representation is also substantially improved. The global average mean annual temperature simulated for the pre-industrial (PI) period is colder in IPSL_CM5A than in IPSL_CM4 but their climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling is similar. Here we show that these differences in the simulated PI climate have an impact on the simulated MH and LGM climatic anomalies. The larger cooling response to LGM boundary conditions in IPSL_CM5A appears to be mainly due to differences between the PMIP3 and PMIP2 boundary conditions, as shown by a short wave radiative forcing/feedback analysis based on a simplified perturbation method. It is found that the sensitivity computed from the LGM climate is lower than that computed from 2 × CO2 simulations, confirming previous studies based on different models. For the MH, the Asian monsoon, stronger in the IPSL_CM5A PI simulation, is also more sensitive to the insolation changes. The African monsoon is also further amplified in IPSL_CM5A due to the impact of the interactive phenology. Finally the changes in variability for both models and for MH and LGM are presented taking the example of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is very different in the PI simulations. ENSO variability is damped in both model versions at the MH, whereas inconsistent responses are found between the two versions for the LGM. Part 2 of this paper examines whether these differences between IPSL_CM4 and IPSL_CM5A can be distinguished when comparing those results to palaeo-climatic reconstructions and investigates new approaches for model-data comparisons made possible by the inclusion of new components in IPSL_CM5A.

Quantifying polynya ice production in the Laptev Sea with the COSMO model

Arctic flaw polynyas are considered to be highly productive areas for the formation of sea-ice throughout the winter season. Most estimates of sea-ice production are based on the surface energy balance equation and use global reanalyses as atmospheric forcing, which are too coarse to take into account the impact of polynyas on the atmosphere. Additional errors in the estimates of polynya ice production may result from the methods of calculating atmospheric energy fluxes and the assumption of a thin-ice distribution within polynyas. The present study uses simulations using the mesoscale weather prediction model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO), where polynya area is prescribed from satellite data. The polynya area is either assumed to be ice-free or to be covered with thin ice of 10 cm. Simulations have been performed for two winter periods (2007/08 and 2008/09). When using a realistic thin-ice thickness of 10 cm, sea-ice production in Laptev polynyas amount to 30 km3 and 73 km3 for the winters 2007/08 and 2008/09, respectively. The higher turbulent energy fluxes of open-water polynyas result in a 50-70% increase in sea-ice production (49 km3 in 2007/08 and 123 km3 in 2008/09). Our results suggest that previous studies have overestimated ice production in the Laptev Sea.

Understanding the tsunami with a simple model

In this paper, we use the approximation of shallow water waves (Margaritondo G 2005 Eur. J. Phys. 26 401) to understand the behaviour of a tsunami in a variable depth. We deduce the shallow water wave equation and the continuity equation that must be satisfied when a wave encounters a discontinuity in the sea depth. A short explanation about how the tsunami hit the west coast of India is given based on the refraction phenomenon. Our procedure also includes a simple numerical calculation suitable for undergraduate students in physics and engineering.

Two-branes with variable tension model and the effective Newtonian constant

It is shown that, in the two brane time variation model framework, if the hidden brane tension varies according to the phenomenological Eotvos law, the visible brane tension behavior is such that its time derivative is negative in the past and positive after a specific time of cosmological evolution. This behavior is interpreted in terms of a useful mechanical system analog and its relation with the variation of the Newtonian (effective) gravitational constant is explored.

Continuation fast decoupled power flow with secant predictor

The conventional Newton and fast decoupled power flow methods are considered inadequate for obtaining the maximum loading point of power systems due to ill-conditioning problems at and near this critical point. At this point, the Jacobian matrix of the Newton method becomes singular. In addition, it is widely accepted that the P-V and Q-theta decoupling assumptions made for the fast decoupled power flow formulation no longer hold. However, in this paper, it is presented a new fast decoupled power flow that becomes adequate for the computation of the maximum loading point by simply using the reactive power injection of a selected PV bus as a continuation parameter. Besides, fast decoupled methods using V and 0 as parameters and a secant predictor are also presented. These new versions are compared to each other with the purpose of pointing out their features, as well as the influence of reactive power and transformer tap limits. The results obtained for the IEEE systems (14 and 118 buses) show that the characteristics of the conventional method are enhanced and the region of convergence around the singular solution is enlarged.

Mathematical modeling of the ester oil-refrigerant R134A mixture two-phase flow with foam formation through a small diameter tube

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The use of artificial neural networks in analysing the nutritional ecology of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), compared with a statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Simulation of within field variability of corn yield with Ceres-Maize model

The CERES-Maize model was used to estimate the spatial variability in corn (Zea mays L.) yield for 1995 and 1996 using data measured on soil profiles located on a 30.5 m grid within a 3.9 ha field in Michigan. The model was calibrated for one grid profile for the 1995 and then used to simulate corn yield for all grid points for the 2 yrs. For the calibration for 1995, the model predicted corn yield within 2%. For 1995, the model predicted yield variability very well (r(2) = 0.85), producing similar yield maps with differences generally within +/- 300 kg ha(-1). For 1996, the model predicted low grain yields (1167 kg ha(-1)) compared with measured (8928 kg ha(-1)) because the model does not account for horizontal water movement within the landscape or water contributions from a water table. Under nonlimiting water conditions, the model performed well (average of 8717 vs. 8948 kg ha(-1)) but under-estimated the measured yield variability.

Analysis of cement slurries by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry with axial viewing

The feasibility of Portland cement analysis by introduction of slurries in an inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer (ICP-OES) with axial viewing has been evaluated. After a fast manual grinding of the cement samples, owing to the pulverized state of this material, 0.1% m/v slurries were prepared in 1% v/v HCl. The calibration was performed adopting two strategies: one based on slurries prepared from different masses (50, 75, 100 and 125 mg) of a Portland cement standard reference material (NIST SRM 1881), and the other one based on aqueous reference solutions. A complete analysis of cement for major (Al, Ca, Fe, Mg and Si), minor and trace elements (Mn, P, S, Sr and Ti) was accomplished. Both strategies led to accurate results for commercial Portland cement samples, except for Si and Ti. for which the calibration with aqueous reference solutions resulted in low values. Applying a paired t-test it was shown that most results were in agreement at a 95% confidence level with a conventional fusion decomposition procedure. The ICP-OES with axial viewing and end-on gas configuration for removal of the recombination plasma zone was effective for cement slurry analysis without any undesirable particle deposition in the pre-optics interface and without severe spectral interferences. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Axial-schwinger model

We consider an extension of the axial model where local gauge symmetries are taken into account. The result is a mixing of the axial and Schwinger models. The anomaly of the axial current is calculated by means of the Fujikawa path integral technique and the model is also solved. Besides the well-known features of the particular models (axial and Schwinger) an effective interaction of scalar and gauge fields via a topological current is obtained. This term is responsible for the appearance of massive poles in the propagators that are different from those of both models.

Precise determination of the mass of the Higgs boson and tests of compatibility of its couplings with the standard model predictions using proton collisions at 7 and 8 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)